Let the nation default?

[Politico]

Sure there will be.

 

[KissMy]

Sure there will be.

On October 17th, the Treasury will have approximately $30 billion left in the coffers to fulfill its obligations. Given reasonable assumptions for receipts and planned expenditures, the remaining cash could last until November 1st, when large $67 billion debt payments must be paid. It will absolutely be a default on debt. There is no legal basis for Treasury officials to fulfill certain obligations at the expense of others, and they therefore have no authority to cancel scheduled payments to illegally stockpile cash prior to November 1st.

The US credit rating goes from AA+ all the way down to SD. Interest rates soar & we are doomed.

 

[politicalnot]

Sure there will be.

On October 17th, the Treasury will have approximately $30 billion left in the coffers to fulfill its obligations. Given reasonable assumptions for receipts and planned expenditures, the remaining cash could last until November 1st, when large $67 billion debt payments must be paid. It will absolutely be a default on debt. There is no legal basis for Treasury officials to fulfill certain obligations at the expense of others, and they therefore have no authority to cancel scheduled payments to illegally stockpile cash prior to November 1st.

The US credit rating goes from AA+ all the way down to SD. Interest rates soar & we are doomed.

We will default if the ceiling is not raised. There absolutely will not be enough cash to pay the obligations on the debt.

 

[Geaux4it]

Sure there will be.

On October 17th, the Treasury will have approximately $30 billion left in the coffers to fulfill its obligations. Given reasonable assumptions for receipts and planned expenditures, the remaining cash could last until November 1st, when large $67 billion debt payments must be paid. It will absolutely be a default on debt. There is no legal basis for Treasury officials to fulfill certain obligations at the expense of others, and they therefore have no authority to cancel scheduled payments to illegally stockpile cash prior to November 1st.

The US credit rating goes from AA+ all the way down to SD. Interest rates soar & we are doomed.

We will default if the ceiling is not raised. There absolutely will not be enough cash to pay the obligations on the debt.

Since the US owes 41% of it's debt to itself, what's the big deal?

Ponzi schemes are brought down all the time

-Geaux

 

[Politico]

We will not default. I'd ask if any of you want to put your money where your intanet mouths are but what's the point.

 

[Geaux4it]

We will not default. I'd ask if any of you want to put your money where your intanet mouths are but what's the point.

if Obama concedes, your right

-Geaux

 

[ScienceRocks]

On October 17th, the Treasury will have approximately $30 billion left in the coffers to fulfill its obligations. Given reasonable assumptions for receipts and planned expenditures, the remaining cash could last until November 1st, when large $67 billion debt payments must be paid. It will absolutely be a default on debt. There is no legal basis for Treasury officials to fulfill certain obligations at the expense of others, and they therefore have no authority to cancel scheduled payments to illegally stockpile cash prior to November 1st.

The US credit rating goes from AA+ all the way down to SD. Interest rates soar & we are doomed.

We will default if the ceiling is not raised. There absolutely will not be enough cash to pay the obligations on the debt.

Just print $16 trillion and pay everyone off.

Here is what could be done.
1. Pull out of the middle east and most of the world militarily.
2. Cut military to 650 billion
3. Cut welfare, food stamps, etc back to 2009 levels.

Leave infrastructure, science and tech the fuck alone.

 

[Toro]

There will be $220 billion coming in from revenues from October 15 through the next two months compared to $330 billion in payments. The Treasury will have enough to pay for social security, Medicare/Medicaid, defense and interest. There won't much left after that. The tricky part is the payments. The Treasury makes 60 million payments each month, and they make it in the order by date. I don't know what the systems can do to prioritize payments but I understand the Treasury can make the interest payments on time regardless.

One source estimates that if the debt ceiling debacle drags on for the entire quarter, it will decrease GDP by 3% annualized. If it drags on for a short time, i.e. a few weeks, there won't be much effect.

 

[politicalnot]

You are saying that since most of the debt is owed to the US through various factions that a default would have minimal effect?

Those retirement funds that owe this debt don't care whether they get paid?

The fact is that debt payments aren't the only economy killer. The big economy killer is the obligations to SS and various government programs like Medicare payments that wouldn't happen after the interest rates went to 15 or 20% within days. Talk about depression in a hurry.

People think they are impervious to most results of government. They are so brainwashed into their sense of security that they don't realize how much that security relies on others. Look at what would happen if you went to the bank today and there was nothing there. You thought you had money but all of the sudden it wasn't available anymore. Your work would stop because you couldn't sell anything. This is what happened during the "Great Depression." I could see us getting to a worse situation much faster today than we did then. Levels of self sufficiency were tremendously higher.

I equate this to medical treatments. You can't cut out the lungs and expect the individual to breath.

 

[KissMy]

Consumer confidence has fallen off the cliff!

 

[kaz]

What is built into the price is the belief that they will do a deal, like they did in August 2011 and on New Years Eve re the Sequester. Every single person whom I speak or listen to believes a deal will get done, even though some of them are starting to hedge.

There are three logical options.

1) They believe a deal will get done
2) They have already incorporated a deal not getting done into the pricing
3) They don't think a deal not getting done affects valuations as much as politicians say it will.

I have a hard time believing #1. Anyone following this at all recognizes that both sides are now dug in and Obamacare is a very emotional issue. I read the Wall Street Journal every day, and there is no lack of reality in the reporting. Your contention that the basic national news is not getting to Wall Street just doesn't pass the smell test. As for the second and third, I don't know. But that prices are drifting down says to me it's a combination of the two.

I had three meetings today with managers who control in aggregate $15 billion. I have meetings like this every day. And just like every other meeting I have had over the past few weeks, every single one of them believes a deal will get done. I have had 40-50 meetings over the past month, listen to numerous speeches, and read countless articles, and no one - and I mean no one - believes the politicians are that stupid that they would default on the debt. As one guy whom I met today said, it's a low probability but high catastrophe event, though the low probability is inching up. The really smart investors watch what people do, not what they say. And in the past, despite the rhetoric, the politicians have gotten a deal done. Investors believe they will get a deal done this time as well.

When you're done playing the game that not sending out welfare checks is "defaulting" then get back to me. I'm tired of arguing with four year olds.

 

[hangover]

Ronnie Raygun promised to balance the budget in his first four years as POTUS. He added $1.5 trillion to the national debt instead. He was the first POTUS to add over a trillion dollars to the debt. Shrub daddy added TWO TRILLION DOLLARS in only four years. Bubba Clinton actually balanced the budget, and left office with an annual surplus. Shrub Jr. destroyed it in only six months adding $3 trillion to the national debt by giving $3 trillion in tax cuts to millionaires(welfare), and then added another $3 trillion with a stupid war in Iraq. The each one of last three republican presidents all more than doubled the national debt. And Shrub Jr. did it with a republican Senate and House. On top of that, he destroyed not only the U.S. economy, but also the global economy. You have to be a complete moron to be a republican.

 

[Steven_R]

So that's the comeback? Obama did it, but the Republicans did it first, so it's okay?

Here's an idea. Let's stop pretending politics is a spectator sport and start holding the whole lot of them accountable when they do stuff like this.

 

[Toro]

There are three logical options.

1) They believe a deal will get done
2) They have already incorporated a deal not getting done into the pricing
3) They don't think a deal not getting done affects valuations as much as politicians say it will.

I have a hard time believing #1. Anyone following this at all recognizes that both sides are now dug in and Obamacare is a very emotional issue. I read the Wall Street Journal every day, and there is no lack of reality in the reporting. Your contention that the basic national news is not getting to Wall Street just doesn't pass the smell test. As for the second and third, I don't know. But that prices are drifting down says to me it's a combination of the two.

I had three meetings today with managers who control in aggregate $15 billion. I have meetings like this every day. And just like every other meeting I have had over the past few weeks, every single one of them believes a deal will get done. I have had 40-50 meetings over the past month, listen to numerous speeches, and read countless articles, and no one - and I mean no one - believes the politicians are that stupid that they would default on the debt. As one guy whom I met today said, it's a low probability but high catastrophe event, though the low probability is inching up. The really smart investors watch what people do, not what they say. And in the past, despite the rhetoric, the politicians have gotten a deal done. Investors believe they will get a deal done this time as well.

When you're done playing the game that not sending out welfare checks is "defaulting" then get back to me. I'm tired of arguing with four year olds.

I'm not.

I hope that wasn't your A game.

In the meantime, stocks are down 12 of the past 15 days and the Dow has fallen 1000 points. Good thing the market already gets it.

 

[hangover]

So that's the comeback? Obama did it, but the Republicans did it first, so it's okay?

Here's an idea. Let's stop pretending politics is a spectator sport and start holding the whole lot of them accountable when they do stuff like this.

First off I'm a registered Independent. I voted for Nader four times. But there's only 3% of this country that are smart enough to know that both sides have the game rigged.

But secondly, You're blaming Obama for cleaning up Shrub Jr.'s destruction of the economy.

 

[hangover]

Ronnie Raygun promised to balance the budget in his first four years as POTUS. He added $1.5 trillion to the national debt instead. He was the first POTUS to add over a trillion dollars to the debt. Shrub daddy added TWO TRILLION DOLLARS in only four years. Bubba Clinton actually balanced the budget, and left office with an annual surplus. Shrub Jr. destroyed it in only six months adding $3 trillion to the national debt by giving $3 trillion in tax cuts to millionaires(welfare), and then added another $3 trillion with a stupid war in Iraq. The each one of last three republican presidents all more than doubled the national debt. And Shrub Jr. did it with a republican Senate and House. On top of that, he destroyed not only the U.S. economy, but also the global economy. You have to be a complete moron to be a republican.

So that's the comeback? Obama did it, but the Republicans did it first, so it's okay?

That's the best the cons can do.....sigh....

 

[kaz]

I had three meetings today with managers who control in aggregate $15 billion. I have meetings like this every day. And just like every other meeting I have had over the past few weeks, every single one of them believes a deal will get done. I have had 40-50 meetings over the past month, listen to numerous speeches, and read countless articles, and no one - and I mean no one - believes the politicians are that stupid that they would default on the debt. As one guy whom I met today said, it's a low probability but high catastrophe event, though the low probability is inching up. The really smart investors watch what people do, not what they say. And in the past, despite the rhetoric, the politicians have gotten a deal done. Investors believe they will get a deal done this time as well.

When you're done playing the game that not sending out welfare checks is "defaulting" then get back to me. I'm tired of arguing with four year olds.

I'm not

I hope that wasn't your A game.

It wasn't any game. That we are going to "default" is the game. And I'm tired of games.

In the meantime, stocks are down 12 of the past 15 days and the Dow has fallen 1000 points. Good thing the market already gets it.

Under a 7% drop, that's a pretty low risk adjustment for what is supposed to be a potentially catastrophic event. I don't think you're lying about working on Wall Street. But be honest, you are not in finance, are you? Your knowledge of asset valuation is zero.

 

[kaz]

Boehner has completely lost his mind.

Imagine the speaker of the house, leader of the majority party, thinking that he has a say in the budget. He's a raving lunatic.

Obama is a megalomaniac and Democrats are a bunch of arrogant dicks who would be rabid if a Republican President and Republican Senate had treated a Democratic House like this.

You go on saying that the majority party in the House has no say in anything, your party's refusal to negotiate is already getting out there even with the best efforts of your minion press.

 

[amrchaos]

I hope you republicans know that there exist another way to end Obamacare without the theatrics?

But you are willing to hurt the economy and our nations reputation if you don't get what you want now...that is foolish.

 

[Lonestar_logic]

The US will not default.

It's a left wing scare tactic.