Let the nation default?

[Toro]

When you're done playing the game that not sending out welfare checks is "defaulting" then get back to me. I'm tired of arguing with four year olds.

I'm not

I hope that wasn't your A game.

It wasn't any game. That we are going to "default" is the game. And I'm tired of games.

In the meantime, stocks are down 12 of the past 15 days and the Dow has fallen 1000 points. Good thing the market already gets it.

Under a 7% drop, that's a pretty low risk adjustment for what is supposed to be a potentially catastrophic event. I don't think you're lying about working on Wall Street. But be honest, you are not in finance, are you? Your knowledge of asset valuation is zero.

I run an institutional investment department.

 

[kaz]

I'm not

I hope that wasn't your A game.

It wasn't any game. That we are going to "default" is the game. And I'm tired of games.

In the meantime, stocks are down 12 of the past 15 days and the Dow has fallen 1000 points. Good thing the market already gets it.

Under a 7% drop, that's a pretty low risk adjustment for what is supposed to be a potentially catastrophic event. I don't think you're lying about working on Wall Street. But be honest, you are not in finance, are you? Your knowledge of asset valuation is zero.

I run an institutional investment department.

Doesn't answer the question. You could do that and either be or not be a finance guy. You clearly don't understand the role of risk in asset valuation.

 

[Flopper]

The American involvement in Vietnam was insane. Even though I was only in my 20's, it was obvious to me at the time. For half of the duration of it, I assumed that the President, Pentagon, and Congress knew something I did not. I discovered, and it has been confirmed by history, that they did not, and it WAS insane. Since then, I no longer assume that the people making decisions in D. C. are going to do so based on rational thinking. I have also learned that their posturing is more importamnt to them than their constituancy. Therefore, I no longer assume that they would not allow the unthinkable to happen, which is default and a worldwide economic panic, which, once begun, would be almost impossible to stop. Another example of the D.C. leadership making terrible decisions was the Kennedy Administration and Moscow taking us to within the hours, or minutes, of nuclear annialiation, over some missles which were obsolete within about 3 years.

To those of you who feel like playing James Dean in a game of "chicken" in "Rebel Without a Cause", beware. Your congress, and especially your tea party, which does not have the economic education of a typical 7th grader, may very well not jump from the car until AFTER it has flown over the cliff.

Although I agree with much of your post, keep in mind that in Washington rising to a position of power and keeping it is everything. You can shutdown the parks, slow down passport issue, and such inconveniences and the public will complain but when you threaten profits on Wall Street, you're stepping on Superman's cape. When big business puts the pressure on congress, they will do as their master's command.

 

[Toro]

It wasn't any game. That we are going to "default" is the game. And I'm tired of games.



Under a 7% drop, that's a pretty low risk adjustment for what is supposed to be a potentially catastrophic event. I don't think you're lying about working on Wall Street. But be honest, you are not in finance, are you? Your knowledge of asset valuation is zero.

I run an institutional investment department.

Doesn't answer the question. You could do that and either be or not be a finance guy. You clearly don't understand the role of risk in asset valuation.

I've spent 18 years trading and investing across capital markets, from being an analyst to running a portfolio to now heading an investment department, and I've lectured a class on investments at a university.

You have a theoretical textbook understanding of risk and how markets work. I've seen hundreds of guys like you with little practical understanding of markets get taken out.

 

[KissMy]

I run an institutional investment department.

Doesn't answer the question. You could do that and either be or not be a finance guy. You clearly don't understand the role of risk in asset valuation.

I've spent 18 years trading and investing across capital markets, from being an analyst to running a portfolio to now heading an investment department, and I've lectured a class on investments at a university.

You have a theoretical textbook understanding of risk and how markets work. I've seen hundreds of guys like you with little practical understanding of markets get taken out.

If Kaz ever worked on Wallstreet it was as a shoe shine boy or taxi driver. He does not know flawed economic models & theories from factual data.

 

[kaz]

I run an institutional investment department.

Doesn't answer the question. You could do that and either be or not be a finance guy. You clearly don't understand the role of risk in asset valuation.

I've spent 18 years trading and investing across capital markets, from being an analyst to running a portfolio to now heading an investment department, and I've lectured a class on investments at a university.

You have a theoretical textbook understanding of risk and how markets work. I've seen hundreds of guys like you with little practical understanding of markets get taken out.

LOL. At Booz Allen, I was paid a lot of money by the who's who of wall street to give them my "theoretical textbook" knowledge. My clients didn't seem to agree with you.

But despite that and the rest of my background, you're the one who continues to repeat the vacuous political point that if we can't raise the debt limit, that means we are "defaulting." Which is bull. So stop with the crap if you want to have a serious discussion. Or don't pretend you are what you are not if you don't.

 

[kaz]

Doesn't answer the question. You could do that and either be or not be a finance guy. You clearly don't understand the role of risk in asset valuation.

I've spent 18 years trading and investing across capital markets, from being an analyst to running a portfolio to now heading an investment department, and I've lectured a class on investments at a university.

You have a theoretical textbook understanding of risk and how markets work. I've seen hundreds of guys like you with little practical understanding of markets get taken out.

If Kaz ever worked on Wallstreet it was as a shoe shine boy or taxi driver. He does not know flawed economic models & theories from factual data.

Ouch, I'm going to cry now.



Sorry, man, I tried.

 

[Spoonman]

I had three meetings today with managers who control in aggregate $15 billion. I have meetings like this every day. And just like every other meeting I have had over the past few weeks, every single one of them believes a deal will get done. I have had 40-50 meetings over the past month, listen to numerous speeches, and read countless articles, and no one - and I mean no one - believes the politicians are that stupid that they would default on the debt. As one guy whom I met today said, it's a low probability but high catastrophe event, though the low probability is inching up. The really smart investors watch what people do, not what they say. And in the past, despite the rhetoric, the politicians have gotten a deal done. Investors believe they will get a deal done this time as well.

When you're done playing the game that not sending out welfare checks is "defaulting" then get back to me. I'm tired of arguing with four year olds.

I'm not.

I hope that wasn't your A game.

In the meantime, stocks are down 12 of the past 15 days and the Dow has fallen 1000 points. Good thing the market already gets it.

you do know this is only the rich getting richer. the market was over priced. it needed an adjustment. why do you think the market is down? the rich are baking off. know who isn't backing off yet? the average joe who is invested but doesn't understand the market. the guy who always takes the hits during adjustments. The rich will be right back in it taking advantage of a rising market again

 

[kaz]

When you're done playing the game that not sending out welfare checks is "defaulting" then get back to me. I'm tired of arguing with four year olds.

I'm not.

I hope that wasn't your A game.

In the meantime, stocks are down 12 of the past 15 days and the Dow has fallen 1000 points. Good thing the market already gets it.

you do know this is only the rich getting richer. the market was over priced. it needed an adjustment. why do you think the market is down? the rich are baking off. know who isn't backing off yet? the average joe who is invested but doesn't understand the market. the guy who always takes the hits during adjustments. The rich will be right back in it taking advantage of a rising market again

Those bastards. They killed Kenny!

 

[Spoonman]

I'm not.

I hope that wasn't your A game.

In the meantime, stocks are down 12 of the past 15 days and the Dow has fallen 1000 points. Good thing the market already gets it.

you do know this is only the rich getting richer. the market was over priced. it needed an adjustment. why do you think the market is down? the rich are baking off. know who isn't backing off yet? the average joe who is invested but doesn't understand the market. the guy who always takes the hits during adjustments. The rich will be right back in it taking advantage of a rising market again

Those bastards. They killed Kenny!

and elected mr hanky

 

[Toro]

Doesn't answer the question. You could do that and either be or not be a finance guy. You clearly don't understand the role of risk in asset valuation.

I've spent 18 years trading and investing across capital markets, from being an analyst to running a portfolio to now heading an investment department, and I've lectured a class on investments at a university.

You have a theoretical textbook understanding of risk and how markets work. I've seen hundreds of guys like you with little practical understanding of markets get taken out.

LOL. At Booz Allen, I was paid a lot of money by the who's who of wall street to give them my "theoretical textbook" knowledge. My clients didn't seem to agree with you.

But despite that and the rest of my background, you're the one who continues to repeat the vacuous political point that if we can't raise the debt limit, that means we are "defaulting." Which is bull. So stop with the crap if you want to have a serious discussion. Or don't pretend you are what you are not if you don't.

I'm not saying that. You're not paying attention.

And I've never met a successful investor who has gone into investing and trading from consulting. I've seen many failed investors and traders going the other way though.

EDIT - Actually, that's not true. I have met a few who came out of consulting who are very good investors, particularly in private equity.

 

[kaz]

But despite that and the rest of my background, you're the one who continues to repeat the vacuous political point that if we can't raise the debt limit, that means we are "defaulting." Which is bull. So stop with the crap if you want to have a serious discussion. Or don't pretend you are what you are not if you don't.

I'm not saying that. You're not paying attention.

Really?

no one - and I mean no one - believes the politicians are that stupid that they would default on the debt. As one guy whom I met today said, it's a low probability but high catastrophe event, though the low probability is inching up. The really smart investors watch what people do, not what they say. And in the past, despite the rhetoric, the politicians have gotten a deal done. Investors believe they will get a deal done this time as well.

Actually, that is exactly what you said. That was what derailed our conversation.

And I've never met a successful investor who has gone into investing and trading from consulting. I've seen many failed investors and traders going the other way though.

EDIT - Actually, that's not true. I have met a few who came out of consulting who are very good investors, particularly in private equity.

I've known consultants who were good and bad investors, but I was referring more to the comment on knowing capital markets. I also worked for Bankers Trust (Global Investment Banking) as well as GE Capital & GE Consumer Finance, so my financial experience isn't just consulting that was just where I was paid the most for doing it.

But resumes aside, there is zero reason for us to default where default is the appropriate word to do whether a deal is done or not. Stop playing games if you want to have a serious discussion. It was your use of that word/lie again that derailed our discussion. You are either being serious or you're not.

 

[zeke]

Doesn't answer the question. You could do that and either be or not be a finance guy. You clearly don't understand the role of risk in asset valuation.

I've spent 18 years trading and investing across capital markets, from being an analyst to running a portfolio to now heading an investment department, and I've lectured a class on investments at a university.

You have a theoretical textbook understanding of risk and how markets work. I've seen hundreds of guys like you with little practical understanding of markets get taken out.

LOL. At Booz Allen, I was paid a lot of money by the who's who of wall street to give them my "theoretical textbook" knowledge. My clients didn't seem to agree with you.

But despite that and the rest of my background, you're the one who continues to repeat the vacuous political point that if we can't raise the debt limit, that means we are "defaulting." Which is bull. So stop with the crap if you want to have a serious discussion. Or don't pretend you are what you are not if you don't.

Man you are HUNG up on that definition of "default". You say it only applies (from what I read) to financial obligations. And that as long as interest is paid to bond holders that we (the government) are not in default.......to those bond holders. And I would say you are correct.

Of course, the government also enters into other contractual obligations to provide periodic payments for services or goods. IF the government fails to make those periodic payments as per the contract, the government would be in DEFAULT of that obligation.

How about Social Security. Government entered into an agreement to pay X amount of dollars over Y given time frame. When THOSE payments are not received, guess what......the government is in DEFAULT of another financial obligation...

I could go on. But a man with your vast Wall Street experience should quit trying to parse the word "default" for your own purpose.

And "default" does sound better. The other word I like to use for those that don't meet their financial obligations is "deadbeats". You like being a deadbeat better?

 

[Toro]

But despite that and the rest of my background, you're the one who continues to repeat the vacuous political point that if we can't raise the debt limit, that means we are "defaulting." Which is bull. So stop with the crap if you want to have a serious discussion. Or don't pretend you are what you are not if you don't.

I'm not saying that. You're not paying attention.

Really?

no one - and I mean no one - believes the politicians are that stupid that they would default on the debt. As one guy whom I met today said, it's a low probability but high catastrophe event, though the low probability is inching up. The really smart investors watch what people do, not what they say. And in the past, despite the rhetoric, the politicians have gotten a deal done. Investors believe they will get a deal done this time as well.

Actually, that is exactly what you said. That was what derailed our conversation.

And I've never met a successful investor who has gone into investing and trading from consulting. I've seen many failed investors and traders going the other way though.

EDIT - Actually, that's not true. I have met a few who came out of consulting who are very good investors, particularly in private equity.

I've known consultants who were good and bad investors, but I was referring more to the comment on knowing capital markets. I also worked for Bankers Trust (Global Investment Banking) as well as GE Capital & GE Consumer Finance, so my financial experience isn't just consulting that was just where I was paid the most for doing it.

But resumes aside, there is zero reason for us to default where default is the appropriate word to do whether a deal is done or not. Stop playing games if you want to have a serious discussion. It was your use of that word/lie again that derailed our discussion. You are either being serious or you're not.

I never said that not raising the debt ceiling means a default on Treasury securities. They will get a deal done because of the uncertainty it creates in financial markets. Markets crashing down c2011 Aug 5 hits the real economy.

Markets are falling because going over the cliff creates uncertainty. The uncertainty revolves around not just not paying the interest but also other factors such as a downgrade by the ratings agencies and the impact on growth. Treasuries are the lynchpin of the global financial system. Anything that threatens the sanctity of Treasuries damages the financial markets and the economy. Your contention that the market has already discounted the uncertainty is sheer nonsense.

 

[Spoonman]

I'm not saying that. You're not paying attention.

Really?


Actually, that is exactly what you said. That was what derailed our conversation.

And I've never met a successful investor who has gone into investing and trading from consulting. I've seen many failed investors and traders going the other way though.

EDIT - Actually, that's not true. I have met a few who came out of consulting who are very good investors, particularly in private equity.

I've known consultants who were good and bad investors, but I was referring more to the comment on knowing capital markets. I also worked for Bankers Trust (Global Investment Banking) as well as GE Capital & GE Consumer Finance, so my financial experience isn't just consulting that was just where I was paid the most for doing it.

But resumes aside, there is zero reason for us to default where default is the appropriate word to do whether a deal is done or not. Stop playing games if you want to have a serious discussion. It was your use of that word/lie again that derailed our discussion. You are either being serious or you're not.

I never said that not raising the debt ceiling means a default on Treasury securities. They will get a deal done because of the uncertainty it creates in financial markets. Markets crashing down c2011 Aug 5 hits the real economy.

Markets are falling because going over the cliff creates uncertainty. The uncertainty revolves around not just not paying the interest but also other factors such as a downgrade by the ratings agencies and the impact on growth. Treasuries are the lynchpin of the global financial system. Anything that threatens the sanctity of Treasuries damages the financial markets and the economy. Your contention that the market has already discounted the uncertainty is sheer nonsense.

i'm thinking a $17 trillion debt and adding a glorified entitlement program on top of it that will consume 1/6th the GDP has to impact the sanctity of the treasury

 

[Flopper]

I've spent 18 years trading and investing across capital markets, from being an analyst to running a portfolio to now heading an investment department, and I've lectured a class on investments at a university.

You have a theoretical textbook understanding of risk and how markets work. I've seen hundreds of guys like you with little practical understanding of markets get taken out.

LOL. At Booz Allen, I was paid a lot of money by the who's who of wall street to give them my "theoretical textbook" knowledge. My clients didn't seem to agree with you.

But despite that and the rest of my background, you're the one who continues to repeat the vacuous political point that if we can't raise the debt limit, that means we are "defaulting." Which is bull. So stop with the crap if you want to have a serious discussion. Or don't pretend you are what you are not if you don't.

Man you are HUNG up on that definition of "default". You say it only applies (from what I read) to financial obligations. And that as long as interest is paid to bond holders that we (the government) are not in default.......to those bond holders. And I would say you are correct.

Of course, the government also enters into other contractual obligations to provide periodic payments for services or goods. IF the government fails to make those periodic payments as per the contract, the government would be in DEFAULT of that obligation.

How about Social Security. Government entered into an agreement to pay X amount of dollars over Y given time frame. When THOSE payments are not received, guess what......the government is in DEFAULT of another financial obligation...

I could go on. But a man with your vast Wall Street experience should quit trying to parse the word "default" for your own purpose.

And "default" does sound better. The other word I like to use for those that don't meet their financial obligations is "deadbeats". You like being a deadbeat better?

You make a good point. Default also means failure to fulfill an obligation. Retirees are much more concerned about whether their social security or check from the VA arrives on time than they are a bond holder getting his interest on time. Business owner's are concerned whether the work the government has contracted for is going to be paid on time. States are becoming concerned about federal payments for Medicaid, education, and other programs. Tens of thousands of people who just signed up for health insurance on exchanges are wondering whether the government will make good on their obligation.

Payment of debt is an important obligation, but there're other obligations also.

 

[Toro]

Really?


Actually, that is exactly what you said. That was what derailed our conversation.



I've known consultants who were good and bad investors, but I was referring more to the comment on knowing capital markets. I also worked for Bankers Trust (Global Investment Banking) as well as GE Capital & GE Consumer Finance, so my financial experience isn't just consulting that was just where I was paid the most for doing it.

But resumes aside, there is zero reason for us to default where default is the appropriate word to do whether a deal is done or not. Stop playing games if you want to have a serious discussion. It was your use of that word/lie again that derailed our discussion. You are either being serious or you're not.

I never said that not raising the debt ceiling means a default on Treasury securities. They will get a deal done because of the uncertainty it creates in financial markets. Markets crashing down c2011 Aug 5 hits the real economy.

Markets are falling because going over the cliff creates uncertainty. The uncertainty revolves around not just not paying the interest but also other factors such as a downgrade by the ratings agencies and the impact on growth. Treasuries are the lynchpin of the global financial system. Anything that threatens the sanctity of Treasuries damages the financial markets and the economy. Your contention that the market has already discounted the uncertainty is sheer nonsense.

i'm thinking a $17 trillion debt and adding a glorified entitlement program on top of it that will consume 1/6th the GDP has to impact the sanctity of the treasury

Over time, if they aren't paid for, they will.

But it's not just spending. It's tax revenues also. Germany has higher spending AND higher taxes and a higher bond rating than the US.

That doesn't mean we have to raise taxes. That's a question of what type of society we want. But as it pertains to our financial soundness, conservatives NEVER focus on raising taxes, which would help with the deficit. (Like, in fairness, liberals never focus on cutting spending.)

 

[Redfish]

I never said that not raising the debt ceiling means a default on Treasury securities. They will get a deal done because of the uncertainty it creates in financial markets. Markets crashing down c2011 Aug 5 hits the real economy.

Markets are falling because going over the cliff creates uncertainty. The uncertainty revolves around not just not paying the interest but also other factors such as a downgrade by the ratings agencies and the impact on growth. Treasuries are the lynchpin of the global financial system. Anything that threatens the sanctity of Treasuries damages the financial markets and the economy. Your contention that the market has already discounted the uncertainty is sheer nonsense.

i'm thinking a $17 trillion debt and adding a glorified entitlement program on top of it that will consume 1/6th the GDP has to impact the sanctity of the treasury

Over time, if they aren't paid for, they will.

But it's not just spending. It's tax revenues also. Germany has higher spending AND higher taxes and a higher bond rating than the US.

That doesn't mean we have to raise taxes. That's a question of what type of society we want. But as it pertains to our financial soundness, conservatives NEVER focus on raising taxes, which would help with the deficit. (Like, in fairness, liberals never focus on cutting spending.)

raising taxes takes money out of the economy, at least a large % of it. the govt beaurocracy eats from the tax revenues and its very hungry.

let workers and businesses spend the money they make, that will help the economy much more than govt "investments".

 

[Toro]

I'm not saying that. You're not paying attention.

Really?


Actually, that is exactly what you said. That was what derailed our conversation.

And I've never met a successful investor who has gone into investing and trading from consulting. I've seen many failed investors and traders going the other way though.

EDIT - Actually, that's not true. I have met a few who came out of consulting who are very good investors, particularly in private equity.

I've known consultants who were good and bad investors, but I was referring more to the comment on knowing capital markets. I also worked for Bankers Trust (Global Investment Banking) as well as GE Capital & GE Consumer Finance, so my financial experience isn't just consulting that was just where I was paid the most for doing it.

But resumes aside, there is zero reason for us to default where default is the appropriate word to do whether a deal is done or not. Stop playing games if you want to have a serious discussion. It was your use of that word/lie again that derailed our discussion. You are either being serious or you're not.

I never said that not raising the debt ceiling means a default on Treasury securities. They will get a deal done because of the uncertainty it creates in financial markets. Markets crashing down c2011 Aug 5 hits the real economy.

Markets are falling because going over the cliff creates uncertainty. The uncertainty revolves around not just not paying the interest but also other factors such as a downgrade by the ratings agencies and the impact on growth. Treasuries are the lynchpin of the global financial system. Anything that threatens the sanctity of Treasuries damages the financial markets and the economy. Your contention that the market has already discounted the uncertainty is sheer nonsense.

And just to clarify, what I said in the quote you highlighted in red that you didn't include is that investors believe a deal will get done.

 

[kaz]

Man you are HUNG up on that definition of "default". You say it only applies (from what I read) to financial obligations. And that as long as interest is paid to bond holders that we (the government) are not in default.......to those bond holders. And I would say you are correct.

Fun and games with Dick and Jane. I've addressed this several times. Liberals are using the word to scare people to think we won't pay our debt. Then when you're challenged, you say it's not just debt, but debt is the argument you are making. You are choosing that word because YOU want to imply we won't pay our debt. You can't have it both ways. Grow up and stop the games.

How about Social Security. Government entered into an agreement to pay X amount of dollars over Y given time frame. When THOSE payments are not received, guess what......the government is in DEFAULT of another financial obligation...

There is no "contract" for social security. Government has just said that you pay taxes to send your parents a check and they will tax your children and send you a check. It's a ponzi scheme. But you are using the word "default" not for that reason but to imply we won't pay our debts to scare people. Scaring people is what you do.

And "default" does sound better. The other word I like to use for those that don't meet their financial obligations is "deadbeats". You like being a deadbeat better?

Wow, out liberaling the liberals. Welfare isn't just an entitlement, now if we don't pay social security and other welfare programs, we're deadbeats! Only deadbeats don't confiscate money from one person at the point of a gun and give it to someone else! Liberalism, you can't make it up...