Look how much warmer we are today than 12 years ago...

[k2skier]

Nice read...

RealClimate: Warming, interrupted: Much ado about natural variability


Before delving into the paper itself, a few words about the place of our work in the global warming “debate” are in order. A quote from the early 20th century Viennese polymath Egon Friedell (which I ran across in the wonderful book Cultural Amnesia by Clive James) captures the situation better than any words I could ever weave;

Electricity and magnetism are those forces of nature by which people who know nothing about electricity and magnetism can explain everything.

Substitute the words “modes of natural climate variability” for “electricity and magnetism,” and well…, hopefully the point is made.


The contentious part of our paper is that the climate system appears to have had another “episode” around the turn of the 21st century, coinciding with the much discussed “halt” in global warming. Whether or not such a halt has really occurred is of course controversial (it appears quite marked in the HadCRUT3 data, less so in GISTEMP); only time will tell if it’s real. Regardless, it’s important to note that we are not talking about global cooling, just a pause in warming.

 

[Sinatra]

Nice read...

RealClimate: Warming, interrupted: Much ado about natural variability


Before delving into the paper itself, a few words about the place of our work in the global warming “debate” are in order. A quote from the early 20th century Viennese polymath Egon Friedell (which I ran across in the wonderful book Cultural Amnesia by Clive James) captures the situation better than any words I could ever weave;

Electricity and magnetism are those forces of nature by which people who know nothing about electricity and magnetism can explain everything.

Substitute the words “modes of natural climate variability” for “electricity and magnetism,” and well…, hopefully the point is made.


The contentious part of our paper is that the climate system appears to have had another “episode” around the turn of the 21st century, coinciding with the much discussed “halt” in global warming. Whether or not such a halt has really occurred is of course controversial (it appears quite marked in the HadCRUT3 data, less so in GISTEMP); only time will tell if it’s real. Regardless, it’s important to note that we are not talking about global cooling, just a pause in warming.

We are not talking about global warming, just a pause in cooling.


That was easy...

 

[Alan Partridge]

Nice read...

Regardless, it’s important to note that we are not talking about global cooling, just a pause in warming.

We are not talking about global warming, just a pause in cooling.


That was easy...

easy for you to misunderstand?

 

[k2skier]

In science, sometimes the easiest explanation is the most accurate...

 

[Sinatra]

Nice read...

Regardless, it’s important to note that we are not talking about global cooling, just a pause in warming.

We are not talking about global warming, just a pause in cooling.


That was easy...

easy for you to misunderstand?

It would appear you are a bit slooooowwwww.

Try to keep up pard...

 

[Sinatra]

If this isn't proof of global warming being a farce, I don't know what is!

These are SST readings from 1997 and 2009. SST means sea surface temperature, meaning the temperature at the surface of the sea.

The blues and purples mean below average and the reds and oranges mean above average.

Please note: Despite the weatherman on TV's definition of "average" in terms of the correct definition for weather, "average" does NOT mean "normal." It means out of a collection of temperatures on this date for the past 50 years, this is the AVERAGE temperature, meaning it's been warmer and it's been colder and this is the middle temperature.

That's 1997. Look at all of the reds and oranges. Look at that pool of warm water by South America into the Pacific Ocean. This means that the water in that area is above average by a significant amount. In Summer 1997 we were in the midst of an El Nino, so this is quite normal for what an El Nino looks like.

This is today... or yesterday. First, look at all of the blues and purples. There's a good deal of them. But also look at the orange beginning to turn darker near South America. This would be consistent with a developing El Nino, which is what I've been saying would happen for months and what NOAA recently said was happening.

If we're in global warming, there should be far less blues and yellows and far MORE oranges and reds, meaning that we should be warmer than the average. But we're not. In fact, we're cooler now than we were during July 1997. Why is that? Because we recently emerged from a very strong La Nina that's lasted from 2005 on. Whereas the last El Nino that developed from a La Nina was in 1996, the La Nina in 1995-1996 wasn't very strong at all. But wait a minute - how could we have a very strong La Nina when we have global warming going on?

The fact of the matter is, don't read any stupid pro or against websites, don't listen to the shit you hear on TV or radio. Look at these two maps. We're not warming. At all.

Our temperatures are dependent upon ENSO cycles. When we have a La Nina, we're cold and dry. When we have an El Nino, we're warm and wet. When we're neutral, it can go either way. So while I don't predict this upcoming winter to be anywhere close to as cold as last winter, I do predict much of the US will have a very nice snow season.

Brrrrr!

 

[Oddball]

In science, sometimes the easiest explanation is the most accurate...

In religion, guilt, self denial and self immolation are always the easiest routes to absolutist tyranny.

 

[Sinatra]

In science, sometimes the easiest explanation is the most accurate...

In religion, guilt, self denial and self immolation are always the easiest routes to absolutist tyranny.

I am not entirely sure some in here are fully aware of how completely you dominate them at every turn.

Carry on!

 

[Alan Partridge]

Sinatra-

It really is a shame that you have to resort to name calling and vague insults to attempt to cover up your obvious lack of scientific knowledge, and since threatened, lost your credibility.

Can you go back and possibly salvage your credibility and answer/ respond to the issues I brought up on your magic graphs that you can't actually explain, or would you rather continue to distract from the debate at hand with insults?

 

[Sinatra]

Sinatra-

It really is a shame that you have to resort to name calling and vague insults to attempt to cover up your obvious lack of scientific knowledge, and since threatened, lost your credibility.

Can you go back and possibly salvage your credibility and answer/ respond to the issues I brought up on your magic graphs that you can't actually explain, or would you rather continue to distract from the debate at hand with insults?

Eh?

Say again?

Were you not the one implying two or three years of cooling? Please show the graph that showed two or three years of cooling - specifically.

Thank you sir!

 

[Alan Partridge]

I responded to that two-three year trend,apparently you missed it, like you missed where I identified the falicies in all of your graphs, I also asked follow up questions in order to learn your point of view.;. But apparently, all you want to do is call names and cut and paste.

I'm not trying to fight you here, I am interested in your theory, that is why I asked you questions that you still have not responded to, with the exception of calling me really sloooooooow

franks and beans

 

[Sinatra]

I responded to that two-three year trend,apparently you missed it, like you missed where I identified the falicies in all of your graphs, I also asked follow up questions in order to learn your point of view.;. But apparently, all you want to do is call names and cut and paste.

I'm not trying to fight you here, I am interested in your theory, that is why I asked you questions that you still have not responded to, with the exception of calling me really sloooooooow

franks and beans

What chart showed only a two or three year cooling trend?

This one?

One million...two million...three hundred million...

Or this one?

Maybe this one?

 

[Alan Partridge]

it was actually one of the others that you posted.

can you tell me what PDO is? is it the Pacific decadal oscillation?

 

[Sinatra]

it was actually one of the others that you posted.


Which one?

If it is the basis for your two or three year trend claim, you need to be more specific...

 

[Sinatra]

Name calling now?

It would appear you are realizing your own demise per this subject of global warming...er, cooling..., er climate change....

You stated the earth had cooled recently due to low sunspot activity. You/Chris also remarked the sunspot activity was at its lowest in 80 years - but 80 years ago, the earth was in a warming trend.

Just trying to follow your path of logic - or lack thereof.

Get real. We are far warmer than we were in the '30s. And we are at a solar minimum, and had a La nina. Yet most of the last four years have ranked in the top ten of the last 150 years for heat.

Simply not true - at least utilizing the US temp records, which are the most accurate due to numbers of stations. You are aware of the data infill that takes place with the historical global temp data, yes?

I suggest you educate yourself far more on this subject - you persist in spouting long-dismissed falsities as fact and your reputation continues to be the worse for it...

Here is some Greenland data: (since the global warmers are so concerned with Greenland's ice melting and causing the seas to rise)

The 1930s and 1940s were warmer than present time - considerably so.

Same goes for the Arctic:

Now let us turn to the United States temp. data specifically. This data was quietly revised after faults had been discovered in its tabulations - faults that incorrectly placed 1998 as the warmest recorded year in the US records. You see, it is far more difficult to infill temp data with the US records as there remains an abundance of surface temp station data for over 100 years. (though such infill and trending takes place - most recently by NOAA which showed significant discrepancies when compared to NASA data) Just like the more recent and accurate satellite temp data from 1979 to present is far more difficult to manipulate - data that shows we are hardly warmer now than 1979 when the earth was coming out of a cold spell.

6 of the top 10 warmest years of US temps were prior to 1960. Four of the top 10 were in the 1930s - twice as much as any other decade.

These facts are shown clearly in the following graph, which does not even account for the cooling of the most recent decade - here we see that 1998 - the oft repeated high point of the global warmers, was far less warm than many periods prior to 1950:

And when adding the most recent yearly temp data, we now see the clearly downward trend...

Global temps are in decline as well...

And the all-important and far more accurate satellite data...

Where is that two or three year chart you speak of Partridge?

Hmmmm...

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

Charts and data are so easily manipulated to make anyone's argument.

just saying

 

[Alan Partridge]

It's the last one, and I was mistaken, it appears that the last chart only shows a one year decline.

Also, what's the PDO, and what do the slope values have to do with this?

Aslo, on the chart above the rolling slope values, it appears the trend is heading down, but average temps are on the rise, thoughts?

 

[Sinatra]

It's the last one, and I was mistaken.

____________


Thank you.

As you can clearly see by the satellite data from 1979 to present, temps are approximately the same as they were 30 years ago, and well below the high average in 1998.

See, you learn something every day!

Good on you!

 

[Alan Partridge]

It's the last one, and I was mistaken.

____________


Thank you.

As you can clearly see by the satellite data from 1979 to present, temps are approximately the same as they were 30 years ago, and well below the high average in 1998.

See, you learn something every day!

Good on you!

Is that how you debate on a message board, cutting, pasting, eluding direct questions, and editing posts to make them say things out of context?

That's kindof sad that you don't actually think.

What is PDO?

^ now the third time I've asked you, and you haven't answered yet, but veiled threats came at me each time.

 

[Sinatra]

It's the last one, and I was mistaken.

____________


Thank you.

As you can clearly see by the satellite data from 1979 to present, temps are approximately the same as they were 30 years ago, and well below the high average in 1998.

See, you learn something every day!

Good on you!

Partridge admits they were wrong.

Cooling trend far more than two or three years...