May 8, 2020: The unemployment figures and "expectations"

[Mac1958]

For the last few weeks we've shifted from the generalized panic following the onset of the pandemic to the "expectations game". Going forward, markets, business behaviors and consumer sentiment won't be based as much on raw data as they will be by how the data compares to "expectations".

So who is in charge of establishing these "expectations"? Well, that's a great question. First, it's almost irrelevant, since the expectations are taken very seriously by markets. But it's generally a rough average of reports by analysts at a few of the larger banks, analytical firms, investment companies and others.

So, the "expectations" of today's upcoming report is that the economy lost about 22 million jobs and the unemployment rate is at about 16%. So if the actual data -- even though it will be adjusted later -- is below those numbers, markets will love it. If the actual data is worse, not so much.

This is a moment in history at which the stock market and the economy are so decoupled that they don't resemble each other at all. The dichotomy of millions losing their jobs and a surging stock market has been astonishing. But right now, the key word is "expectations". So we'll see.

 

[JoeB131]

That's the important thing, Stormy Mac.. That the markets are doing well, not all the people who are dead, sick or unemployed because your Hero Trump fucked this up so badly.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

It has amazed me the stock market has not been tanking every single day.
Appears the market has been able to differentiate between a temporary pandemic, and a true economic collapse.

 

[JoeB131]

It has amazed me the stock market has not been tanking every single day.
Appears the market has been able to differentiate between a temporary pandemic, and a true economic collapse.

Naw, the markets are happy because they know they can use this to do what they love to do best.

Fuck over the working man.

They really kind of hated the pre-Pandemic normal, where there were labor shortages and they actually had to offer better salaries. Now they can slash salaries and people will be happy they still have jobs.

 

[sparky]

This is a moment in history at which the stock market and the economy are so decoupled that they don't resemble each other at all. The dichotomy of millions losing their jobs and a surging stock market has been astonishing.

Pandemic profits: Analysis shows the ultra-rich got ultra-richer as coronavirus hit

WASHINGTON—Call it pandemic profits: A new report by the Institute for Policy Studies, the latest in its biannual series, shows the ultra-rich got ultra-richer in the months since the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S.

peoplesworld.org

~S~

 

[Mac1958]

It has amazed me the stock market has not been tanking every single day.
Appears the market has been able to differentiate between a temporary pandemic, and a true economic collapse.

It still defies logic. The market appears to still be expecting a V-shaped recovery, and such a thing is difficult to imagine as this drags on. Plus, this isn't isolated, it's global.

One thing that does explain it is the unevenness of the market - there are obviously sectors (tech, most of all) that are being far less effected by the lockdown, and they're leading the way.

Pretty amazing to watch.

 

[Mac1958]

This is a moment in history at which the stock market and the economy are so decoupled that they don't resemble each other at all. The dichotomy of millions losing their jobs and a surging stock market has been astonishing.

Pandemic profits: Analysis shows the ultra-rich got ultra-richer as coronavirus hit

WASHINGTON—Call it pandemic profits: A new report by the Institute for Policy Studies, the latest in its biannual series, shows the ultra-rich got ultra-richer in the months since the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S.

peoplesworld.org

~S~

Yep, no surprise at all.

 

[candycorn]

It has amazed me the stock market has not been tanking every single day.
Appears the market has been able to differentiate between a temporary pandemic, and a true economic collapse.

Naw, the markets are happy because they know they can use this to do what they love to do best.

Fuck over the working man.

They really kind of hated the pre-Pandemic normal, where there were labor shortages and they actually had to offer better salaries. Now they can slash salaries and people will be happy they still have jobs.

Wall street loves layoffs.

 

[there4eyeM]

'We' don't need Wall Street. We need to arrange things better to our advantage and not the market manipulators'.

 

[rightwinger]

It has amazed me the stock market has not been tanking every single day.
Appears the market has been able to differentiate between a temporary pandemic, and a true economic collapse.

I don’t see this as temporary.

We will not ring a bell and have everything return to normal. Many businesses will not return. Social distancing will force many to operate at limited capacity. People are wary of crowds and crowds mean profits.
We still don’t have a vaccine and may not have one till next year. We can’t return to “normal” until we do
Our economic machine will remain in low gear for some time

 

[gipper]

For the last few weeks we've shifted from the generalized panic following the onset of the pandemic to the "expectations game". Going forward, markets, business behaviors and consumer sentiment won't be based as much on raw data as they will be by how the data compares to "expectations".

So who is in charge of establishing these "expectations"? Well, that's a great question. First, it's almost irrelevant, since the expectations are taken very seriously by markets. But it's generally a rough average of reports by analysts at a few of the larger banks, analytical firms, investment companies and others.

So, the "expectations" of today's upcoming report is that the economy lost about 22 million jobs and the unemployment rate is at about 16%. So if the actual data -- even though it will be adjusted later -- is below those numbers, markets will love it. If the actual data is worse, not so much.

This is a moment in history at which the stock market and the economy are so decoupled that they don't resemble each other at all. The dichotomy of millions losing their jobs and a surging stock market has been astonishing. But right now, the key word is "expectations". So we'll see.

Just proves how massive government spending benefits big corporations, while doing little for small business.

The politicians know where their bread is buttered.

Yet another signal of a dying empire.

 

[Mac1958]

For the last few weeks we've shifted from the generalized panic following the onset of the pandemic to the "expectations game". Going forward, markets, business behaviors and consumer sentiment won't be based as much on raw data as they will be by how the data compares to "expectations".

So who is in charge of establishing these "expectations"? Well, that's a great question. First, it's almost irrelevant, since the expectations are taken very seriously by markets. But it's generally a rough average of reports by analysts at a few of the larger banks, analytical firms, investment companies and others.

So, the "expectations" of today's upcoming report is that the economy lost about 22 million jobs and the unemployment rate is at about 16%. So if the actual data -- even though it will be adjusted later -- is below those numbers, markets will love it. If the actual data is worse, not so much.

This is a moment in history at which the stock market and the economy are so decoupled that they don't resemble each other at all. The dichotomy of millions losing their jobs and a surging stock market has been astonishing. But right now, the key word is "expectations". So we'll see.

Just proves how massive government spending benefits big corporations, while doing little for small business.

The politicians know where their bread is buttered.

Yet another signal of a dying empire.

Yep. We allow money to control our political system, and that's exactly what it's doing.

 

[Tijn Von Ingersleben]

Our economy is screwed and the politicians are completely to blame.

 

[Mac1958]

Right before the numbers, Dow futures up about 200.

The numbers: Unemployment rate 14.7%, 20.5 million jobs lost.

Not as bad as expected, so we'll see.

 

[Mac1958]

There's a certain perversity in watching markets in the green when the unemployment rate has exploded at a historic rate, no?

 

[evenflow1969]

Our economy is screwed and the politicians are completely to blame.

There is hope! After the 1918 pandemic the roaring twenties followed. All these people under self quarintine will have a shit load of pent up energy to expend and there is a great amount of work not being done right now because people are not at work. Some of this work will have to be caught up on. I am not going to pretend to have a crystle ball but not all indicators are negative. Lets have a little hope here and strive to over come this shit in the future.

 

[Moonglow]

It has amazed me the stock market has not been tanking every single day.
Appears the market has been able to differentiate between a temporary pandemic, and a true economic collapse.

If that twas the case it would have never crashed..

 

[Moonglow]

Our economy is screwed and the politicians are completely to blame.

There is hope! After the 1918 pandemic the roaring twenties followed. All these people under self quarintine will have a shit load of pent up energy to expend and there is a great amount of work not being done right now because people are not at work. Some of this work will have to be caught up on. I am not going to pretend to have a crystle ball but not all indicators are negative. Lets have a little hope here and strive to over come this shit in the future.

After the 1918 pandemic the US had a surge of economic activity because the Europeans were rebuilding after the war, that situation doesn't exist today.

 

[gipper]

Dow up 300. NASDAQ up 70.

 

[Mac1958]

Dow up 300. NASDAQ up 70.

Insanity.