My chart evaluation for this week (8/25/2024). Free of charge as a gift to you.

[Luckyone]

Market Y0-Yo's this week as Emotions run rampant....on both sides.​

DOW Friday Closing Price - 41175
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5634
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 19720
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2218

This past week was all emotional trading. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the yearly numbers on Thursday and they were revised down by 818,000 jobs. This meant that the economy was in worse shape than was expected previously. The indexes made a new rally high on the news and then proceeded to reverse and make a new 3-day low. Fed Chief Powell talked on Friday and he clearly suggested that it was "time to" start cutting rates. The index market rallied strongly on that news and the DOW and the RUT made new rally highs and the SPX and NASDAQ recovered most of what was lost on Thursday. As such, the news was bad and then good and the traders reacted emotionally but now find themselves in a quandary as to what is going to happen from here on out.

What do the chart say and how will the computers and algorithms look at this? Well to begin with, the all-time intraweek highs in all the 3 main indexes are still major barriers that should not get broken under any situation, unless the emotions run so strong that they get broken for a short period of time. In the DOW that level is at 41376 (200 points higher from Friday's close), in the SPX that level is at 5669 (35 points above), and in the NASADAQ, that level is at 20690 (970 points above). Evidently and based on the fact this rally is more emotional than anything and the DOW represents "safe" stocks, the traders will key on this index. Being only 200 points away from that high, it is evident that level can be in play this week.

Having said that, what the traders will also key on this week, especially since the following week September begins (and that is a seasonal down month where it is difficult to see the indexes making new all-time highs) is whether they can make August a positive month or simply a so-so month as is usual seasonally. What I mean by this, is that the bears can ill afford to allow the indexes to close anywhere near the high of the month this Friday, or September will start on a positive note. This means that the traders will be looking at levels below that could be catalysts where if broken, they would automatically generate selling. In that respect, Thursday's intraweek lows will be the triggers. In the DOW, that level is at 40584, in the SPX that level is at 5560, and in the NASDAQ that level is at 19459.

This is what this market is looking at this week, given the nature of the news and what happened last week chart-wise. This week is all about charts and nothing else. The fundamental news is out and none of it is clear (will inflation hold here or continue lower?, is the economy faltering more than anticipated or not?, will the Fed cut rates 25 points or 50 points? None of that will be answered this week and as such and at the levels that the indexes are at and with September around the corner, something is likely to break (to the upside or the downside). One thing that has to be tilting the minds of the traders to the downside is the NASDAQ, that has underperformed the market and in a bull situation, that is not likely to be the case.

That is all I have for this week's indexes chart analysis. It really is all down to this simple scenario.

 

[Oddball]

In terms of a USD that is worth 20% less than it was 3 1/2 years ago.

Your sock puppet sauce is weaker than ever, Wanker.

 

[The Duke]

Market Y0-Yo's this week as Emotions run rampant....on both sides.​

DOW Friday Closing Price - 41175
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5634
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 19720
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2218

This past week was all emotional trading. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the yearly numbers on Thursday and they were revised down by 818,000 jobs. This meant that the economy was in worse shape than was expected previously. The indexes made a new rally high on the news and then proceeded to reverse and make a new 3-day low. Fed Chief Powell talked on Friday and he clearly suggested that it was "time to" start cutting rates. The index market rallied strongly on that news and the DOW and the RUT made new rally highs and the SPX and NASDAQ recovered most of what was lost on Thursday. As such, the news was bad and then good and the traders reacted emotionally but now find themselves in a quandary as to what is going to happen from here on out.

What do the chart say and how will the computers and algorithms look at this? Well to begin with, the all-time intraweek highs in all the 3 main indexes are still major barriers that should not get broken under any situation, unless the emotions run so strong that they get broken for a short period of time. In the DOW that level is at 41376 (200 points higher from Friday's close), in the SPX that level is at 5669 (35 points above), and in the NASADAQ, that level is at 20690 (970 points above). Evidently and based on the fact this rally is more emotional than anything and the DOW represents "safe" stocks, the traders will key on this index. Being only 200 points away from that high, it is evident that level can be in play this week.

Having said that, what the traders will also key on this week, especially since the following week September begins (and that is a seasonal down month where it is difficult to see the indexes making new all-time highs) is whether they can make August a positive month or simply a so-so month as is usual seasonally. What I mean by this, is that the bears can ill afford to allow the indexes to close anywhere near the high of the month this Friday, or September will start on a positive note. This means that the traders will be looking at levels below that could be catalysts where if broken, they would automatically generate selling. In that respect, Thursday's intraweek lows will be the triggers. In the DOW, that level is at 40584, in the SPX that level is at 5560, and in the NASDAQ that level is at 19459.

This is what this market is looking at this week, given the nature of the news and what happened last week chart-wise. This week is all about charts and nothing else. The fundamental news is out and none of it is clear (will inflation hold here or continue lower?, is the economy faltering more than anticipated or not?, will the Fed cut rates 25 points or 50 points? None of that will be answered this week and as such and at the levels that the indexes are at and with September around the corner, something is likely to break (to the upside or the downside). One thing that has to be tilting the minds of the traders to the downside is the NASDAQ, that has underperformed the market and in a bull situation, that is not likely to be the case.

That is all I have for this week's indexes chart analysis. It really is all down to this simple scenario.

I bet you ain't got ary a dollar in the market, Market Boi.

 

[Darkwind]

Good. A rising tide floats all boats, and there is a boatload of people who have retirement stakes in the market continuing to outperform Social Security.

 

[Luckyone]

I bet you ain't got ary a dollar in the market, Market Boi.

That is hilarious. I have been trading for 47 years. I was an analyst with Merrill Lynch and Pru-Bache in the 80's and since 2005 (since I retired), I have lived and paid by bills with my trading.

I am amazed that after reading what I wrote that you could even think that. That certainly says a lot about you