Nate Silver: Hillary's Lead Keeps Shrinking

[Sun Devil 92]

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking

This is Nate Silver, not Sean Hannity (although I would guess Sean is going to be all over it in his usual dumbassed style).

The clearest pattern is simply that Trump has regained ground since Clinton’s post-convention peak. He now has a 31 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model, and a 33 percent chance according to polls-plus. For a deeper look, let’s run through our set of 10 framing questions about the election1 in light of the most recent polling:

Wow...up to 33%...I would not give him 3.3 %.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

5. Which states shape up as most important?
It’s still early enough — and we’re lacking recent, high-quality polling in enough states — that I’d discourage you from fixating on any one exact combination of states that Clinton or Trump might win to clinch the Electoral College. Instead, you might think of this election as a battle between the Big Ten states and the ACC states, either of which offer a plausible path to victory for Clinton. If she holds on to most of the Big Ten states that President Obama won four years ago, such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, she can afford to lose ACC states such as Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. If she can win either Florida or both Virginia and North Carolina — and certainly if she sweeps all three ACC states — she can sacrifice quite a bit of ground in the Big Ten. The handful of competitive states outside of these groups, such as Nevada and New Hampshire, have few enough electoral votes that they’ll serve as tiebreakers only in the event of an extremely close race.

According to our tipping-point index, however, the single most important state is Florida. That’s because its 29 electoral votes are as much as many combinations of two and three swing states put together.

 

[candycorn]

31% chance...enjoy your "victory"

 

[candycorn]

PA, VA, NJ, MI belong to Ms. Clinton. OH and FL look very good for her. Too many Hispanics in Florida and too many christian conservatives that will stay home in Ohio for Mr. Trump.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

PA, VA, NJ, MI belong to Ms. Clinton. OH and FL look very good for her. Too many Hispanics in Florida and too many christian conservatives that will stay home in Ohio for Mr. Trump.

Do you compete with Nate ?

Can you give us your analytical site ?

 

[Sun Devil 92]

31% chance...enjoy your "victory"

It's not mine.

I didn't give him a 10% chance a month ago.

I don't want him.

I don't want her any more than I want him.

 

[kiwiman127]

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking

This is Nate Silver, not Sean Hannity (although I would guess Sean is going to be all over it in his usual dumbassed style).

The clearest pattern is simply that Trump has regained ground since Clinton’s post-convention peak. He now has a 31 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model, and a 33 percent chance according to polls-plus. For a deeper look, let’s run through our set of 10 framing questions about the election1 in light of the most recent polling:

Wow...up to 33%...I would not give him 3.3 %.

The cautious and the "let Trump keep shooting himself in the foot" campaign style, isn't exactly working well for Hillary. It lets Trump dominate the media which keeps his name in the headlines, while almost invisible Clinton fades.
She should be swinging away, just like her opposition.
As someone who has no intention of voting for either, I just want to watch and see gutter politics from Hillary and Trump for purely entertainment purposes.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking

This is Nate Silver, not Sean Hannity (although I would guess Sean is going to be all over it in his usual dumbassed style).

The clearest pattern is simply that Trump has regained ground since Clinton’s post-convention peak. He now has a 31 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model, and a 33 percent chance according to polls-plus. For a deeper look, let’s run through our set of 10 framing questions about the election1 in light of the most recent polling:

Wow...up to 33%...I would not give him 3.3 %.

The cautious and the "let Trump keep shooing himself in the foot' campaign style, isn't exactly working well for Hillary. It lets Trump dominate the media which keeps his name in the headlines, while almost invisible Clinton fades.
She should be swinging away, just like her opposition.
As someone who has no intention of voting for either, I just want to watch and see gutter politics from Hillary and Trump for purely entertainment..

Trump is not the rebel the right wishes he was.

He's and establishment GOP in sheeps clothing.

What no one is saying is....is he getting better or is she getting worse ?

 

[candycorn]

PA, VA, NJ, MI belong to Ms. Clinton. OH and FL look very good for her. Too many Hispanics in Florida and too many christian conservatives that will stay home in Ohio for Mr. Trump.

Do you compete with Nate ?

Can you give us your analytical site ?

Compete with Nate? I agree with him. I predict that the CC in Ohio and the Hispanics in Florida will deliver both to HRC.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

PA, VA, NJ, MI belong to Ms. Clinton. OH and FL look very good for her. Too many Hispanics in Florida and too many christian conservatives that will stay home in Ohio for Mr. Trump.

Do you compete with Nate ?

Can you give us your analytical site ?

Compete with Nate? I agree with him. I predict that the CC in Ohio and the Hispanics in Florida will deliver both to HRC.

Can me show where Nate predicts anything ?

He analyzes data that is current and delivers pretty good analysis.

You do what ? Predict what you want to happen.

 

[candycorn]

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking

This is Nate Silver, not Sean Hannity (although I would guess Sean is going to be all over it in his usual dumbassed style).

The clearest pattern is simply that Trump has regained ground since Clinton’s post-convention peak. He now has a 31 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model, and a 33 percent chance according to polls-plus. For a deeper look, let’s run through our set of 10 framing questions about the election1 in light of the most recent polling:

Wow...up to 33%...I would not give him 3.3 %.

The cautious and the "let Trump keep shooing himself in the foot' campaign style, isn't exactly working well for Hillary. It lets Trump dominate the media which keeps his name in the headlines, while almost invisible Clinton fades.
She should be swinging away, just like her opposition.
As someone who has no intention of voting for either, I just want to watch and see gutter politics from Hillary and Trump for purely entertainment..

Trump is not the rebel the right wishes he was.

He's and establishment GOP in sheeps clothing.

What no one is saying is....is he getting better or is she getting worse ?

Polls always tighten around this time then they congeal as people make up their minds. My guess is that you're seeing a lot of the "never Trump" republicans holding their nose and voting for the small fraction of a man when faced with the sober predicament of it's either Trump or HRC and they are able to put out of their mind for a moment that Trump isn't one of them.

HRC just needs 1 or 2 % to stay home in the swing states of FL and OH and it's her's. Kasich is really hurting Trump's chances there.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking

This is Nate Silver, not Sean Hannity (although I would guess Sean is going to be all over it in his usual dumbassed style).

The clearest pattern is simply that Trump has regained ground since Clinton’s post-convention peak. He now has a 31 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model, and a 33 percent chance according to polls-plus. For a deeper look, let’s run through our set of 10 framing questions about the election1 in light of the most recent polling:

Wow...up to 33%...I would not give him 3.3 %.

The cautious and the "let Trump keep shooing himself in the foot' campaign style, isn't exactly working well for Hillary. It lets Trump dominate the media which keeps his name in the headlines, while almost invisible Clinton fades.
She should be swinging away, just like her opposition.
As someone who has no intention of voting for either, I just want to watch and see gutter politics from Hillary and Trump for purely entertainment..

Trump is not the rebel the right wishes he was.

He's and establishment GOP in sheeps clothing.

What no one is saying is....is he getting better or is she getting worse ?

Polls always tighten around this time then they congeal as people make up their minds. My guess is that you're seeing a lot of the "never Trump" republicans holding their nose and voting for the small fraction of a man when faced with the sober predicament of it's either Trump or HRC and they are able to put out of their mind for a moment that Trump isn't one of them.

HRC just needs 1 or 2 % to stay home in the swing states of FL and OH and it's her's. Kasich is really hurting Trump's chances there.

You predict....

You guess......

Who really cares.

This thread is about what Nate Silver is seeing.

I don't want Trump. That's what is so scarey.

"Small fraction of a man...."....he's running for president and you are posting on a message board.

 

[Rambunctious]

 

[candycorn]

PA, VA, NJ, MI belong to Ms. Clinton. OH and FL look very good for her. Too many Hispanics in Florida and too many christian conservatives that will stay home in Ohio for Mr. Trump.

Do you compete with Nate ?

Can you give us your analytical site ?

Compete with Nate? I agree with him. I predict that the CC in Ohio and the Hispanics in Florida will deliver both to HRC.

Can me show where Nate predicts anything ?

Can you show me where I said he did?

You do what ? Predict what you want to happen.

You obviously have no idea what you're talking about shit brains.
http://www.usmessageboard.com/posts/10080716/
http://www.usmessageboard.com/posts/9019602/
http://www.usmessageboard.com/posts/5910637/

What I want to happen has little to do with my predictions.
Florida has a lot of Hispanics. Trump is doing very poorly with Hispanics.
Ohio is always close. Christian conservatives are not on board and the very popular Governor of the State is one of his enemies.

 

[candycorn]

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking

This is Nate Silver, not Sean Hannity (although I would guess Sean is going to be all over it in his usual dumbassed style).

The clearest pattern is simply that Trump has regained ground since Clinton’s post-convention peak. He now has a 31 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model, and a 33 percent chance according to polls-plus. For a deeper look, let’s run through our set of 10 framing questions about the election1 in light of the most recent polling:

Wow...up to 33%...I would not give him 3.3 %.

The cautious and the "let Trump keep shooing himself in the foot' campaign style, isn't exactly working well for Hillary. It lets Trump dominate the media which keeps his name in the headlines, while almost invisible Clinton fades.
She should be swinging away, just like her opposition.
As someone who has no intention of voting for either, I just want to watch and see gutter politics from Hillary and Trump for purely entertainment..

Trump is not the rebel the right wishes he was.

He's and establishment GOP in sheeps clothing.

What no one is saying is....is he getting better or is she getting worse ?

Polls always tighten around this time then they congeal as people make up their minds. My guess is that you're seeing a lot of the "never Trump" republicans holding their nose and voting for the small fraction of a man when faced with the sober predicament of it's either Trump or HRC and they are able to put out of their mind for a moment that Trump isn't one of them.

HRC just needs 1 or 2 % to stay home in the swing states of FL and OH and it's her's. Kasich is really hurting Trump's chances there.

You predict....

You guess......

Who really cares.

This thread is about what Nate Silver is seeing.

I don't want Trump. That's what is so scarey.

"Small fraction of a man...."....he's running for president and you are posting on a message board.

Yeah, I'm not making fun of the physically disabled like your messiah is. Advantage me.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking

This is Nate Silver, not Sean Hannity (although I would guess Sean is going to be all over it in his usual dumbassed style).

The clearest pattern is simply that Trump has regained ground since Clinton’s post-convention peak. He now has a 31 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model, and a 33 percent chance according to polls-plus. For a deeper look, let’s run through our set of 10 framing questions about the election1 in light of the most recent polling:

Wow...up to 33%...I would not give him 3.3 %.

The cautious and the "let Trump keep shooing himself in the foot' campaign style, isn't exactly working well for Hillary. It lets Trump dominate the media which keeps his name in the headlines, while almost invisible Clinton fades.
She should be swinging away, just like her opposition.
As someone who has no intention of voting for either, I just want to watch and see gutter politics from Hillary and Trump for purely entertainment..

Trump is not the rebel the right wishes he was.

He's and establishment GOP in sheeps clothing.

What no one is saying is....is he getting better or is she getting worse ?

Polls always tighten around this time then they congeal as people make up their minds. My guess is that you're seeing a lot of the "never Trump" republicans holding their nose and voting for the small fraction of a man when faced with the sober predicament of it's either Trump or HRC and they are able to put out of their mind for a moment that Trump isn't one of them.

HRC just needs 1 or 2 % to stay home in the swing states of FL and OH and it's her's. Kasich is really hurting Trump's chances there.

You predict....

You guess......

Who really cares.

This thread is about what Nate Silver is seeing.

I don't want Trump. That's what is so scarey.

"Small fraction of a man...."....he's running for president and you are posting on a message board.

Yeah, I'm not making fun of the physically disabled like your messiah is. Advantage me.

Please show me where I said I was voting for moron Trump, my messiah.

Just need one post...that's it.

I must say that you need to be updated on your talking points though. You sound like last months news.

Advantage who ?

According to Nate, this election is very volatile.

The real losers in all this are all of us. We have two clowns from the clown bus in a clown race.

I realize you worship clowns, but this thread is about her shrinking lead.

Not your envy.

 

[Rambunctious]

More Clinton funk.....


Fox News: Clinton Team May Have Manipulated Benghazi Hearing

 

[Sun Devil 92]

More Clinton funk.....


Fox News: Clinton Team May Have Manipulated Benghazi Hearing

Ruh Roh.....

 

[Picaro]

Isn't it cute how the mentally ill are still trying to sell the fiction that Hillary has some sort of 'giant lead n stuff'? She isn't going to make it, and her health is why; she's toast. It doesn't matter what the spin doctors claim in polls.

 

[candycorn]

The cautious and the "let Trump keep shooing himself in the foot' campaign style, isn't exactly working well for Hillary. It lets Trump dominate the media which keeps his name in the headlines, while almost invisible Clinton fades.
She should be swinging away, just like her opposition.
As someone who has no intention of voting for either, I just want to watch and see gutter politics from Hillary and Trump for purely entertainment..

Trump is not the rebel the right wishes he was.

He's and establishment GOP in sheeps clothing.

What no one is saying is....is he getting better or is she getting worse ?

Polls always tighten around this time then they congeal as people make up their minds. My guess is that you're seeing a lot of the "never Trump" republicans holding their nose and voting for the small fraction of a man when faced with the sober predicament of it's either Trump or HRC and they are able to put out of their mind for a moment that Trump isn't one of them.

HRC just needs 1 or 2 % to stay home in the swing states of FL and OH and it's her's. Kasich is really hurting Trump's chances there.

You predict....

You guess......

Who really cares.

This thread is about what Nate Silver is seeing.

I don't want Trump. That's what is so scarey.

"Small fraction of a man...."....he's running for president and you are posting on a message board.

Yeah, I'm not making fun of the physically disabled like your messiah is. Advantage me.

Please show me where I said I was voting for moron Trump, my messiah.

Just need one post...that's it.

I must say that you need to be updated on your talking points though. You sound like last months news.

Advantage who ?

According to Nate, this election is very volatile.

The real losers in all this are all of us. We have two clowns from the clown bus in a clown race.

I realize you worship clowns, but this thread is about her shrinking lead.

Not your envy.

Boy, I bet you wish I'd quit calling him your messiah. You mis-represent what I have stated in the past, I'll be happy to mis-represent yours as well asswipe.

HRC is the best qualified person to seek the office since Bush 41. Why dumbfucks like you question that is just a sign of your idiocy.