Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[bripat9643]

The pollsters are far better prepared to use "critical thinking" than any of us.

You're obviously speaking only for yourself, flat worm brain.

This is their job, their profession, their livelihood. Numbers are being honeslty portrayed by people who are using math and science. Tuesday will tell the tale...

For most of them, their job is generating Democrat propaganda. Anyone who think there's anything objective about polls needs to see me about some investments in Florida swamp land.

 

[bripat9643]

Jim, it is likely that you are delusional.

You look at numbers by a reliable polling professional and you call me delusional...

Tuesday is coming...

I think that you may be kidding yourself a bit. Yes Tuesday is coming and no matter how the election turns out Wednesday will be coming along shortly after and we will all still be putting one foot in front of the other grinding out a living. I'm not going to waste too much energy on worrying about how the election is going to turn out. I like Romney's message much more then Obama's more government message but either way my family and I will continue to enjoy life. I also hope that you and your family are safe, sound and happy.

You will enjoy life a lot less if Obama gets reelected.

 

[Pheonixops]

I live in Ohio and if signs are an indication...Obama is winning about 3 to 1.

And I am in Virginia and in the last week, Obama signs have been springing up all over...not a real good indicator I don't suppose...

I see more Romney signs here in Virginia Beach.

 

[Bigfoot]

You look at numbers by a reliable polling professional and you call me delusional...

Tuesday is coming...

I think that you may be kidding yourself a bit. Yes Tuesday is coming and no matter how the election turns out Wednesday will be coming along shortly after and we will all still be putting one foot in front of the other grinding out a living. I'm not going to waste too much energy on worrying about how the election is going to turn out. I like Romney's message much more then Obama's more government message but either way my family and I will continue to enjoy life. I also hope that you and your family are safe, sound and happy.

You will enjoy life a lot less if Obama gets reelected.

Maybe. I sure will be pleased the day I don't have to view Obama as president any longer. But I'm not going to worry myself or my family to much about the whole thing as it's my responsibility to do what I can to keep them healthy and happy and that starts with me keeping a good attitude myself.

BTW, here's a +1 because I often enjoy you're posts.

 

[driveby]

I live in Ohio and if signs are an indication...Obama is winning about 3 to 1.

Get out of the ghetto once in a while......

 

[blackhawk]

A Gallup poll shows Romney up by five it's dismissed by the left this poll shows Obama up by five and Romney is doomed interesting how that worked ain't it? If you look at this race honestly you know it is a toss up along with every swing state out there.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Polls Show Two Swing-State Dems Leading - Hotline On Call

Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe used the word "desperation" for the first time, since Willard won the first debate. I expect many of you to call him another Democratic Hack, but he is one of the more reasonable Republicans out there.

In Ohio, Brown leads GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel by 9 points: 51 percent support to Mandel's 42 percent. Mandel leads among independent voters, 46 percent to 44 percent. Their previous poll, conducted the week prior, also had the race at 51 percent to 42 percent.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the state. The poll was conducted Oct. 23-28 and surveyed 1,110 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are neck-and-neck in the same poll, with the president ahead, 48 percent to 47 percent. Mack has consistently underperformed Romney in public polling. The poll of 1,073 likely Florida voters was conducted Oct. 23-28. The margin of error for the survey is plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.

Quinnipiac is well known for its accuracy.

OKAY, YOU CAN BEGIN TELLING ME THIS POLL IS SKEWED NOW!

Thank you for your service Jim.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

You look at numbers by a reliable polling professional and you call me delusional...

Tuesday is coming...

I think that you may be kidding yourself a bit. Yes Tuesday is coming and no matter how the election turns out Wednesday will be coming along shortly after and we will all still be putting one foot in front of the other grinding out a living. I'm not going to waste too much energy on worrying about how the election is going to turn out. I like Romney's message much more then Obama's more government message but either way my family and I will continue to enjoy life. I also hope that you and your family are safe, sound and happy.

You will enjoy life a lot less if Obama gets reelected.

you want some cheese with that whine?

 

[jillian]

I live in Ohio and if signs are an indication...Obama is winning about 3 to 1.

Get out of the ghetto once in a while......

Nah... Nothing racist there

 

[blackhawk]

I was looking for the sampling data on the poll to find the percent of Democrats polled and Republicans along with independents interesting that data was not listed with all the poll questions as it is in pretty much every other poll. Does that make the poll skewed I can't say one does wonder why they would leave that out though.

 

[driveby]

I live in Ohio and if signs are an indication...Obama is winning about 3 to 1.

Get out of the ghetto once in a while......

Nah... Nothing racist there

That didn't take long...

 

[Bigfoot]

Get out of the ghetto once in a while......

Nah... Nothing racist there

That didn't take long...

Yeah, that's ole Rosie needs a boner's usual play, race.

 

[blackhawk]

Scott Rasmussen said it best tonight when he was asked who he thought would win the election his response was I have no idea and anyone says they do is either lying or deluding themselves truer words were never spoken.

 

[JimH52]

Just how accurate is the Qinnipiac Polling?

Election Polling 101 « Survey Says

We are currently using the same methodology that we used when we accurately predicted the Florida presidential results in 2004 and 2008. Respected New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver found that we were the most accurate poll in predicting the 2010 elections.

 

[Bigfoot]

Just how accurate is the Qinnipiac Polling?

Election Polling 101 « Survey Says

We are currently using the same methodology that we used when we accurately predicted the Florida presidential results in 2004 and 2008. Respected New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver found that we were the most accurate poll in predicting the 2010 elections.

From what I have been reading voter turnout will be considerably different this election. We will know soon enough and life will go on either way.

 

[Truthseeker420]

I live in Ohio and if signs are an indication...Obama is winning about 3 to 1.

Yard signs are indicative of where you live. If you live in one of the cities like Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, or Toledo, or even Akron or Canton or Youngstown, you will see more Obama signs. If you live in rural areas, you'll have a hard time finding many. I live in what would be considered a suburb of Toledo and the yard signs are pretty evenly split. I would venture to guess that Obama does better in the entire metro Toledo area due to the auto industry having such an impact on this area.

I'm talking about rural white central Ohio.

 

[LibertyLemming]

What I don't get is if it is the "independents" who decide elections, especially in swing states, and Romney is up 6 in OH with independents, how is he losing overall....

 

[Bigfoot]

What I don't get is if it is the "independents" who decide elections, especially in swing states, and Romney is up 6 in OH with independents, how is he losing overall....

I'm registered Independent and will not vote for Obama. But I also live in a blue state so my votie is academic.

 

[oreo]

Polls Show Two Swing-State Dems Leading - Hotline On Call

Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe used the word "desperation" for the first time, since Willard won the first debate. I expect many of you to call him another Democratic Hack, but he is one of the more reasonable Republicans out there.

In Ohio, Brown leads GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel by 9 points: 51 percent support to Mandel's 42 percent. Mandel leads among independent voters, 46 percent to 44 percent. Their previous poll, conducted the week prior, also had the race at 51 percent to 42 percent.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the state. The poll was conducted Oct. 23-28 and surveyed 1,110 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are neck-and-neck in the same poll, with the president ahead, 48 percent to 47 percent. Mack has consistently underperformed Romney in public polling. The poll of 1,073 likely Florida voters was conducted Oct. 23-28. The margin of error for the survey is plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.

Quinnipiac is well known for its accuracy.

OKAY, YOU CAN BEGIN TELLING ME THIS POLL IS SKEWED NOW!

The polls you just cited are using 2008 voter turnout--with oversampling of democrats by 9 points. What they're stating is there are going to be 9 more democrats to every 1 republican that votes. And they're not including independents in these polls in which Romney is leading by 19 points.

What we're also starting to see is something we haven't seen in decades. In fact 1980--Reagan democrats who by 25% kicked Carter to the curb to vote for Reagan. These democrats did not show up in the polling data back in 1980. But they showed up on election night. Democrats are moving to the Romney column this year--we just don't know how many of them there are.

Election night is going to be reminiscent of Custer's Last Stand for Barack Obama.

We may see something similar to this. Carter v Reagan--1980

 

[MarcATL]

Last number I heard was 75% Nate's predicting.