Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[JoeB131]

Last number I heard was 75% Nate's predicting.

He has it at 79% this morning.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

What I don't get is if it is the "independents" who decide elections, especially in swing states, and Romney is up 6 in OH with independents, how is he losing overall....

Independents and weak (‘Reagan’) democrats win elections; Romney simply won’t get enough democrats to win in Ohio and most of the other BG states.

 

[JimH52]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Okay RW loons, dismiss this Thread quickly!

 

[JimH52]

ElectoralVote

 

[SniperFire]

Old Rocks had it @ like 390.

LOL

 

[mudwhistle]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Okay RW loons, dismiss this Thread quickly!

Done.

 

[candycorn]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Okay RW loons, dismiss this Thread quickly!

Thats about where I have him. I don't think he gets 300 without Florida. The important thing is to get 270 of course.

 

[Mac1958]

.

Holy crap, that was mine too...

http://www.usmessageboard.com/election-forums/258795-electoral-vote-predictions.html

.

 

[konradv]

Old Rocks had it @ like 390.

LOL

Try 290, liar!

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/258346-obamas-2nd-term-or-wheres-barry.html#post6247034

 

[JimH52]

I guess Willard is getting...what's the word....let's see.....Desperate....Yeah....Desperate.

O can count on Christie's vote!

 

[AceRothstein]

Polls Show Two Swing-State Dems Leading - Hotline On Call

Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe used the word "desperation" for the first time, since Willard won the first debate. I expect many of you to call him another Democratic Hack, but he is one of the more reasonable Republicans out there.

In Ohio, Brown leads GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel by 9 points: 51 percent support to Mandel's 42 percent. Mandel leads among independent voters, 46 percent to 44 percent. Their previous poll, conducted the week prior, also had the race at 51 percent to 42 percent.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the state. The poll was conducted Oct. 23-28 and surveyed 1,110 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are neck-and-neck in the same poll, with the president ahead, 48 percent to 47 percent. Mack has consistently underperformed Romney in public polling. The poll of 1,073 likely Florida voters was conducted Oct. 23-28. The margin of error for the survey is plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.

Quinnipiac is well known for its accuracy.

OKAY, YOU CAN BEGIN TELLING ME THIS POLL IS SKEWED NOW!

The polls you just cited are using 2008 voter turnout--with oversampling of democrats by 9 points. What they're stating is there are going to be 9 more democrats to every 1 republican that votes. And they're not including independents in these polls in which Romney is leading by 19 points.

What we're also starting to see is something we haven't seen in decades. In fact 1980--Reagan democrats who by 25% kicked Carter to the curb to vote for Reagan. These democrats did not show up in the polling data back in 1980. But they showed up on election night. Democrats are moving to the Romney column this year--we just don't know how many of them there are.

Election night is going to be reminiscent of Custer's Last Stand for Barack Obama.

We may see something similar to this. Carter v Reagan--1980

Polls don't sample based on prior election turnout! You cons that continue to peddle that lie are fucking idiots.

There is zero chance that this election is close to the 1980 election.

 

[TNHarley]

Hey, if polls (that are BS) make yall happy, then have a happy day! Well see next week

 

[Warrior102]

President Romney will win in a landslide, you Libberhoid nutsacks.

Shove your predictions for a second failed term into your ass -

Sideways.

 

[Nova78]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Okay RW loons, dismiss this Thread quickly!

**Yawn**

 

[Mac1958]

President Romney will win in a landslide, you Libberhoid nutsacks.

Shove your predictions for a second failed term into your ass -

Sideways.

Great, post your prediction:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/election-forums/258795-electoral-vote-predictions.html

.

 

[Warrior102]

Great, post your prediction:

I will. The night before the election.

 

[JimH52]

Great, post your prediction:

I will. The night before the election.

I especially want to see you on the board on Wednesday!

 

[JimH52]

Hey, if polls (that are BS) make yall happy, then have a happy day! Well see next week

It is making us very happy! And, Governor Christie and I thank you!

 

[Warrior102]

I especially want to see you on the board on Wednesday!

Why? Are you going to need tissues and tampons following Barry Hussein Sotero's (or whatever the fuck his name is) defeat?

 

[OKTexas]

When an incumbent consistantly polls below 50% they tend to be in trouble. The only poll I'm going to put an faith in will be taken on Nov. 6th. So we'll see.