JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
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The last Presidential election in 2012 had about 127 million voters, United States presidential election, 2012 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, so another million voters is not even a 1% increase in votes. Obama won by 5 million votes, so spread out nationwide one million new votes are trivial.
The exit polls from that election had a 25% liberal, 35% conservative and moderate 41%.
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
The self identifying liberals in the general population are around 21%, conservatives 40% and moderates 35% Conservatives Remain the Largest Ideological Group in U.S.
So while liberals have a higher turn out percentage wise, getting a 25% boost over their surveyed percentage, moderates get a 15% boost, conservatives come in about 12% under their percentage of the population. In other words about 15 million conservative voters more than everyone else, sat out that election.
Now both parties in the general election fight for the middle slices of the moderate vote (50 million), and that break down is 40% lean moderate, 35% lean conservative and 20% lean liberal. This comes out as 17 million moderates that lean conservative, 20 million lean moderate, and 10 million lean liberal.
Among self described moderates and/or independents there is a 10% swing vote, which amounts to about 5 million votes. But while 86% of liberals (31.8 million) voted Democrat for 26 million votes and 14% (5 million) went GOP, the conservative voters (44 million) had only 82% vote Republican (36.5 million) and 17% voted for Obama ( 7.5 million votes). So of self identified conservatives and liberal voters only, based on ideological cross overs, the vote went 2 million against the GOP (7.5 million - 5 million).
But if Republicans had gotten conservative voters to turn out to match the liberals, they would have gained 2 million votes on the cross overs and 15 million from the conservatives showing up at the polls, a 17 million vote gain and the election won by 12 million votes, a landslide.
The GOP needs to energize its conservative base instead of chasing after a sliver of a percentage of moderate voters and alienating it's conservative base.
The exit polls from that election had a 25% liberal, 35% conservative and moderate 41%.
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
The self identifying liberals in the general population are around 21%, conservatives 40% and moderates 35% Conservatives Remain the Largest Ideological Group in U.S.
So while liberals have a higher turn out percentage wise, getting a 25% boost over their surveyed percentage, moderates get a 15% boost, conservatives come in about 12% under their percentage of the population. In other words about 15 million conservative voters more than everyone else, sat out that election.
Now both parties in the general election fight for the middle slices of the moderate vote (50 million), and that break down is 40% lean moderate, 35% lean conservative and 20% lean liberal. This comes out as 17 million moderates that lean conservative, 20 million lean moderate, and 10 million lean liberal.
Among self described moderates and/or independents there is a 10% swing vote, which amounts to about 5 million votes. But while 86% of liberals (31.8 million) voted Democrat for 26 million votes and 14% (5 million) went GOP, the conservative voters (44 million) had only 82% vote Republican (36.5 million) and 17% voted for Obama ( 7.5 million votes). So of self identified conservatives and liberal voters only, based on ideological cross overs, the vote went 2 million against the GOP (7.5 million - 5 million).
But if Republicans had gotten conservative voters to turn out to match the liberals, they would have gained 2 million votes on the cross overs and 15 million from the conservatives showing up at the polls, a 17 million vote gain and the election won by 12 million votes, a landslide.
The GOP needs to energize its conservative base instead of chasing after a sliver of a percentage of moderate voters and alienating it's conservative base.
