Official Election results thread

[thereisnospoon]

The poll numbers were so far off, can anyone have faith in Obama's polls numbers? I think if we had a real media and a fair polling system his numbers would be under 40%...

Most of the polls were cooked by way oversampling Democrats.

LA Times looks like the most accurate one of all!

Even hack Silver had to adjust somewhat for the bias.

No, the polls were not wrong!!!

They are national polls. When you poll nationally you obviously get national results.

You have to (and they should, but they're too damn lazy to), reduce the percentage by the surplus votes each candidate gets from the non swing states.

This year those should be:

Clinton 9.5 million
Trump 4.5 million.

The difference of 5 million is roughly 3.9% of the total national vote.

She needed that large of a lead to be win the majority of swing states. Below that and she losses swing states and marginal blue states.

The polls call California many more times than any other because they hold a huge population. She will win it with a surplus of +2.6 million votes. That alone will skew the national vote by +1.5 democrat.

The pollsters also showed Clinton with an Electoral college win, which wipes out your national vs. state theory, bub.

Pardon my French, but bullshit.

The national polls are different than the state polls.

Clinton had a massive amount of votes from dark blue states over what she needed to win those states. Trump also had some, but the difference was 3.9% of the total votes cast in the last presidential election.

For her to start even in the swing states, she needed to lead in the national polls by 3.9%. Any less and the swing states start falling trumps way, and the marginally blue states go red.

I posted this two weeks before the election. I also posted that Clinton would win the popular vote and Trump the EC.

And that extra cash I now have in my pocket because folks (even pollsters), are too damn lazy to run a simple spreadsheet, sure feels good too!

Yep...Not many people understand this concept( state vs national) and quite frankly those are the people that pollsters target. The uninformed and those too lazy to do their own homework.
This is not the first time polling data for a presidential election was out of touch with the voters.
I was watching CNN and one talking head with a sneer on her face mentioned polling data that showed a Clinton win was skewed by those who either refused to answer pollsters or to avoid being criticized claimed they were for Clinton. She was in essence crying "no fair".....Whiners

 

[Divine Wind]

Shitforbrains claims Obama has not been issuing EO's.

For most people, I'd claim you're lying again, but for you, I think you are simply overly emotional and mentally deficient.

God bless and please don't hurt yourself or anyone else.

 

[Pop23]

Most of the polls were cooked by way oversampling Democrats.

LA Times looks like the most accurate one of all!

Even hack Silver had to adjust somewhat for the bias.

No, the polls were not wrong!!!

They are national polls. When you poll nationally you obviously get national results.

You have to (and they should, but they're too damn lazy to), reduce the percentage by the surplus votes each candidate gets from the non swing states.

This year those should be:

Clinton 9.5 million
Trump 4.5 million.

The difference of 5 million is roughly 3.9% of the total national vote.

She needed that large of a lead to be win the majority of swing states. Below that and she losses swing states and marginal blue states.

The polls call California many more times than any other because they hold a huge population. She will win it with a surplus of +2.6 million votes. That alone will skew the national vote by +1.5 democrat.

The pollsters also showed Clinton with an Electoral college win, which wipes out your national vs. state theory, bub.

Pardon my French, but bullshit.

The national polls are different than the state polls.

Clinton had a massive amount of votes from dark blue states over what she needed to win those states. Trump also had some, but the difference was 3.9% of the total votes cast in the last presidential election.

For her to start even in the swing states, she needed to lead in the national polls by 3.9%. Any less and the swing states start falling trumps way, and the marginally blue states go red.

I posted this two weeks before the election. I also posted that Clinton would win the popular vote and Trump the EC.

And that extra cash I now have in my pocket because folks (even pollsters), are too damn lazy to run a simple spreadsheet, sure feels good too!

Yep...Not many people understand this concept( state vs national) and quite frankly those are the people that pollsters target. The uninformed and those too lazy to do their own homework.
This is not the first time polling data for a presidential election was out of touch with the voters.
I was watching CNN and one talking head with a sneer on her face mentioned polling data that showed a Clinton win was skewed by those who either refused to answer pollsters or to avoid being criticized claimed they were for Clinton. She was in essence crying "no fair".....Whiners

IBD has Clinton up by three and rising. Is it still the most accurate poll?


Day 10 Results: Oct. 28

Might be, but on a national legal she has an automatic 3.9% lead in overvotes, so she still needs improvement. She has 2.6 million votes in California alone more than she needs to win that state.

This was my post from two weeks ago.

The national polls reflected a lead, but the lead came from states she won anyway, so they meant nothing.

So the polls came closer than what people think, you need to adjust their numbers based on the above and you can get a pretty good idea of who will actually win the swings.

 

[Divine Wind]

What I find amusing is the number of liberals and Hillary supporters who thought the polling data was to be taken as the gospel.
More amusing is the reaction from that side when former Blue states were lit up red on election maps.
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were gigantic for the Trump camp...

While I agree the shock value was fascinating, pollsters strive to be accurate since a lot of money is riding on the results. Disreputable or inaccurate pollsters go out of business. Businesses, political groups, whatever who rely on inaccurate polls also go out of business or, as we see here, lose their asses in elections.

It might be due to a paradigm change not properly weighted by the pollsters. In September 1960 the first televised Presidential debate took place. JFK's team understood about appearance, Nixon's team focused on content. Those who listened on the radio thought Nixon won, but those who watched the debate on their tiny TV screens thought JFK won and, a few weeks later, he did. Perhaps Twitter and the Internet played more into the 2016 results than pollsters acknowledged. The election was studied in a book titled "The Making of a President".

Like generals who always fought the last war, pollsters may have been focusing upon past voter dynamics and didn't give enough weight to modern voter dynamics.

Either way, polling is a science. If it's done right, it's usually accurate. If it's done wrong, it's complete garbage. Whatever the cause, there is no doubt that the vast majority of professional pollsters got it wrong. I'm sure there will be a book about the 2016 election and, if done well, will be as well read and studied as 1961's "The Making of President".

 

[Rambunctious]

Me all day...can't wipe the smile off of my face.

 

[Dalia]

It's a sweet dream that came true i think i give some luck with my sign i don' need it anymore.

Bravo Trump Supporters

 

[AntonToo]

"I LOVE THE POORLY EDUCATED!" - Donald Trump

I don't know about the other states but the exit polling in Florida indicated that the majority of college educated people voted for Trump instead of that Crooked Hillary bitch.

The great majority of Crooked Hillary's support came from the ghetto big cities of the country that is is not exactly known for being educated.

Florida was an anomaly. And there is a lot of political and socio-economic know-nothings with degrees.

Trump is highly unpopular among those that are at least mildly educated in how politics and policy connects to the reality, because if you are familiar with that there is little chance of you buying Trump's bs rhetoric.

Even looking at the forum boards here and conservative circles, the ones that were enthusiastic for Trump were consistently silly posters.

Buying Trumps BS.
The Molotov cocktail just got thrown.
The people are tired of Washington.

Silly, very silly.

 

[Flash]

[

Silly, very silly.

It is part of the gloating process to ridicule you dumbass Moon Bats who were stupid enough to put up such a dishonest and corrupt candidate as this Crooked Hillary bitch and then wonder why she lost.

 

[AntonToo]

It is part of the gloating process to ridicule you dumbass Moon Bats who were stupid enough to put up such a dishonest and corrupt candidate as this Crooked Hillary bitch and then wonder why she lost.

You liked Bernie more?

What is your alternative? (I know constructive questions like that drive you crazy)

Not a single proven corruption charge against Hillary in 30 years, does that stop you from saying it? NOPE, not a pause for a second even as she was cleared by her Republican investigators time and time again.

This suggestion that ANY Democrat would be to your tastes just points to lack of any self-awareness on your part. People like you live from one special plead to the next with no sense of consistency.

And Trump loves chumps like you, he can say WHATEVER and you'll eat it up, because he knows facts don't matter to you.

 

[AntonToo]

Translation: I believe the vast majority of Americans are fucking morons.

Vast majority of Americans do not know much of anything when it comes to politics and issues. That doesn't make them "FUCKING MORONS!", it makes them ignorant, which they OBJECTIVELY are.

The Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania – Americans know surprisingly little about their government, survey finds

36 Percent - that's how many Americans know bare basics that there is Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches of government.

 

[Dr Grump]

Well, the Dem base. I don't know what you are.

I'm great though, thanks for asking.

I'm not a Dem. You are racist though.

 

[Flash]

It is part of the gloating process to ridicule you dumbass Moon Bats who were stupid enough to put up such a dishonest and corrupt candidate as this Crooked Hillary bitch and then wonder why she lost.

You liked Bernie more?

What is your alternative? (I know constructive questions like that drive you crazy)

Not a single proven corruption charge against Hillary in 30 years, does that stop you from saying it? NOPE, not a pause for a second even as she was cleared by her Republican investigators time and time again.

This suggestion that ANY Democrat would be to your tastes just points to lack of any self-awareness on your part. People like you live from one special plead to the next with no sense of consistency.

And Trump loves chumps like you, he can say WHATEVER and you'll eat it up, because he knows facts don't matter to you.

I didn't vote for Trump so you can take your partisan pig crap and shove it.

You Moon Bat will never know if Bernie would have done better than this Crooked Hillary piece of shit because you didn't nominate him at your Moon Bat Convention.

However, what you do know is that the idiot that you nominated ran on a platform to increase taxes, let illegals flood in, bring in a million Muslims and do away with the Constitutional right to keep and bear arms and then you wonder why you lost.

 

[Divine Wind]

Translation: I believe the vast majority of Americans are fucking morons.

Vast majority of Americans do not know much of anything when it comes to politics and issues. That doesn't make them "FUCKING MORONS!", it makes them ignorant, which they OBJECTIVELY are.

The Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania – Americans know surprisingly little about their government, survey finds

36 Percent - that's how many Americans know bare basics that there is Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches of government.

Translation: You are correct, DW, but let me walk this back and play with semantics.

Thanks for the link. It's much more of an indictment on the US academic and public school system than Americans in general since I know for a fact that people have an average IQ of 100. In other words, they can learn if given the opportunity. If they are "ignorant", without knowledge, then why are my fucking school taxes so high? Why did the Democrats focus so much on guns and unisex bathrooms instead of a fundamental like public education?

Time until a LWL blames the Republicans: 10....9....8....

 

[charwin95]

Yes he is our president now either we like it or not. We just have to see the results of his promises.
1. Force deportation of illegals
2. Mexico will pay for the wall
3. Bring back jobs from overseas.
4. Trade & tariffs
5. Get rid of NAFTA & TPP
6. Scrap Iran deal
7. Ban muslims
8. Repeal Obamacare.
9. Jobs for black inner cities
10. Unite our country.

 

[AntonToo]

Translation: I believe the vast majority of Americans are fucking morons.

Vast majority of Americans do not know much of anything when it comes to politics and issues. That doesn't make them "FUCKING MORONS!", it makes them ignorant, which they OBJECTIVELY are.

The Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania – Americans know surprisingly little about their government, survey finds

36 Percent - that's how many Americans know bare basics that there is Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches of government.

Translation: You are correct, DW, but let me walk this back and play with semantics.

Thanks for the link. It's much more of an indictment on the US academic and public school system than Americans in general since I know for a fact that people have an average IQ of 100. In other words, they can learn if given the opportunity. If they are "ignorant", without knowledge, then why are my fucking school taxes so high? Why did the Democrats focus so much on guns and unisex bathrooms instead of a fundamental like public education?

Time until a LWL blames the Republicans: 10....9....8....

Retard, yes, there actually is a difference between intelligence and knowledge. You obviously have deficiency in the former, which explains both your posting and support of Trump despite having spent considerable time politiking.

 

[Lastamender]

Of course it was God's will! Do you think I set out to pray against God's will? I didn't get to praying until I knew that I knew that I knew that it was His Will and I was just praying in agreement with his will! God answers prayer! There were millions of us praying and He heard our prayers and rendered a verdict in our favor! Now you'll just have to accept that and the Democrats had better not try to mess with what God has already done or they will find themselves fighting against Him! VERY BAD IDEA.

Good. Then you wan't have a problem accepting the damage that will be done. The stock markets all over the world are already crashing. Aren't you proud?

And what are you going to say when they fully recover as they always do?

Stock markets always recover. The crash is an indication of how that idiot is going to effect the world. We will be lucky to keep any allies.

We have seen that for the last eight years. Legacy has been trashed.

Obama's legacy is fine. The reputation of the presidency is trashed by trump

Really, no more Obamacare, a reset with Iran, and repealing his immigration executive order. Legacy go bye bye,

 

[Lastamender]

You sound potentially butt hurt.

Disappointed? Sure, but now you have nobody to blame but yourself for what will happen. You elected a fool. You can't deny that.

It was that fool or the most corrupt candidate in history.

Enjoy your clown idiot.

We never called your president a clown. You shouldn't call President Trump a clown. Let's turn over a new leaf here! For the good of the country.

Fuck you. You called our president much worse than that. I'm taking bets on how long till that fool is kicked out of office.

Why would anyone with a record like you bet on politics? You have no idea what Americans want.

 

[Lastamender]

Well, the Dem base. I don't know what you are.

I'm great though, thanks for asking.

I'm not a Dem. You are racist though.

You mean a winning racist.

 

[BULLDOG]

Good. Then you wan't have a problem accepting the damage that will be done. The stock markets all over the world are already crashing. Aren't you proud?

And what are you going to say when they fully recover as they always do?

Stock markets always recover. The crash is an indication of how that idiot is going to effect the world. We will be lucky to keep any allies.

We have seen that for the last eight years. Legacy has been trashed.

Obama's legacy is fine. The reputation of the presidency is trashed by trump

Really, no more Obamacare, a reset with Iran, and repealing his immigration executive order. Legacy go bye bye,

Great. I couldn't buy insurance at any price before Obamacare. I wonder how long before insurance companies can dump me again.

 

[jon_berzerk]

Me all day...can't wipe the smile off of my face.

there are a lot of folks like that today