Political Cartoon

Lakhota · Dec 15, 2023

Lakhota · Dec 15, 2023

the other mike · Dec 15, 2023

Lakhota · Dec 15, 2023

the other mike · Dec 15, 2023

Lakhota said:
View attachment 873774

2 lb of cheese costs what 5 lb did 4 years ago

Lakhota · Dec 15, 2023

Am I the only one who thinks that Donald Trump won't win in 2024?
Nope.

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Loser in chief

Granted, polls look grim for Biden. Trump is actually ahead in several polls in swing states. Trump is clinching the Republican nomination even before the first primaries, Biden is somehow even less popular than Trump. It does look like the 2024 election is at least favoring Trump, if not already won for him.

But it’s not so simple. A week is a long time in politics, the election is more than 50 weeks away. A lot will happen in the meantime, starting with several high-profile trials of DJ Trump for very real misconduct in office. Right now a big part of his poll numbers is just that, he’s getting loads and loads of exposure and TV time thanks to the upcoming trials, exploration, evidence is revealed to the public and so on. However the judge’s hammers will start coming down and before the elections too. Trump may win some of the trials, but he will lose most.

NY civil suit is first, he’s looking into a deep cut of his (alleged) wealth. Bankruptcy is a distinct possibility. Georgia election subversion trial is a major threat, it would come with real jail time and it’s a state offence with no possibility of a presidential pardon. Classified documents case is open and shut, the best defense Trump can offer is “they did it too”, which might work for the crowds, but not in a court of law.

Furthermore some of Biden’s current weakness is thanks to his support for Israel in the Gaza war. Muslim Americans and people who support Palestinians in general tend to vote Democrat, not Republican. They may well say they don’t support Biden in the poll one year ahead of the election day, but when presented with a choice of either this guy or Trump, they probably won’t shy from voting for Biden. If the election was next week then yes, Trump is ascendant, but I don’t expect Gaza war to have a big effect on Biden a year from now and the effect of TV exposure from being convicted in a high-profile trial is very different to merely being accused of the crime. These will no longer help Trump a year from now, without them he’s no longer ahead of Biden.

There may be other effects that are likely to damage Trump - convictions, bankruptcies, MAGA Republicans in the Congress being unmanageable and starting food fights during the Congressional debate and more are all fairly likely and we will see at least some of them. I would expect these predominantly to harm Trump.

Of course it is also possible Trump escapes from his legal hurdles somehow. The only way I see it is by introducing a couple MAGA hats to his juries, which is unlikely, but not impossible. Being declared not guilty in several trials would help him, even though his guilt would be obvious for all. There may also be other unforeseen factors that help Trump in various ways, such as the FSB putting their thumb on the scale somehow, or the Chinese intelligence doing something and so on. Americas’ enemies want Trump 2, this much is clear, and that is not to be underestimated. The world is not actually safe from Trump 2.

Still, barring another event like the Gaza war as the October ’24 surprise or that war taking a year to play out, or Trump getting MAGA hats on several of his juries, or foreign spies seriously affecting American elections, Trump is looking at another electoral loss in 2024. Those events are certainly not impossible, but not inevitable either.

ETA: Anders Ljung in the comment pointed out another highly relevant factor: Trump has been campaigning since 2016, he never stopped. Biden has not yet begun to campaign. You would expect a politician who is not campaigning to have worse poll numbers than one who is, all else being equal. Biden has approximately 50 years of experience in Washington politics and won every election he stood in for decades on end. Whatever his strategy is, he certainly has reasons for making it such and probably knows more on how to run a successful campaign than any three analysts combined. This is then backed by a strong team that got him elected over and over again. It would be rather foolish to underestimate Biden and assume he’s clueless on how to win reelections.