Prediction of global temperature for 2017-2024

[SSDD]

Show us a model that does not assume AGW that even comes close to hindcasting the temperature trends of the last 100 years.

The point crick....is that no model is accurate because the physical basis of the models are flawed....you don't need to have a model that can hind cast accurately to prove that the present crop of models are failing miserably....the fact is that we don't know nearly enough about the climate and what drives it to make any claims whatsoever...the fact of the 2 decade pause while CO2 has climbed steadily is strong observed, measured, quantified evidence that the CO2 portion of the AGW hypothesis, and the greenhouse hypothesis are wrong.

 

[Old Rocks]

John Coleman

​

Learn more from theCenter for Media and Democracy's research on climate change.

John Coleman founded The Weather Channel in 1982. He is currently the weatherman at station KUSI-TV in San Diego, California. He spoke as a global warming skeptic at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change and the International Conference on Climate Change (2009). Both events were organized by the Heartland Institute think tank. [1]

John Coleman may describe himself as a scientist or even a meteorologist but he is neither. His degree is in media studies [2]

John Coleman - SourceWatch

Just another liar on the Exxon-Mobile payroll.

 

[jc456]

Where's the link to the change in the interpretation of the ice cores?

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special

Excerpt:
"NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special"

jc, nothing about ice cores in that, you lying SOB. And John Coleman has zero credentials or credibility.

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special
Press Release From: KUSI-TV
Posted: Thursday, January 14, 2010

Climate researchers have discovered that NASA researchers improperly manipulated data in order to claim 2005 as "THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD." KUSI-TV meteorologist, Weather Channel founder, and iconic weatherman John Coleman will present these findings in a one-hour special airing on KUSI-TV on Jan.14 at 9 p.m. A related report will be made available on the Internet at 6 p.m. EST on January 14th at www.kusi.com.

In a new report, computer expert E. Michael Smith and Certified Consulting Meteorologist Joseph D'Aleo discovered extensive manipulation of the temperature data by the U.S. Government's two primary climate centers: the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) in Ashville, North Carolina and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) at Columbia University in New York City. Smith and D'Aleo accuse these centers of manipulating temperature data to give the appearance of warmer temperatures than actually occurred by trimming the number and location of weather observation stations. The report is available online at http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NOAAroleinclimategate.pdf.

dude, to change the past records, one would have to change the noted temperature anomalies taken from ice cores. Not sure how else they can change 6000 year old records.

 

[SSDD]

John Coleman

​

Learn more from theCenter for Media and Democracy's research on climate change.

John Coleman founded The Weather Channel in 1982. He is currently the weatherman at station KUSI-TV in San Diego, California. He spoke as a global warming skeptic at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change and the International Conference on Climate Change (2009). Both events were organized by the Heartland Institute think tank. [1]

John Coleman may describe himself as a scientist or even a meteorologist but he is neither. His degree is in media studies [2]

John Coleman - SourceWatch

Just another liar on the Exxon-Mobile payroll.

None of which addresses the accuracy or inaccuracy of his claims...he could be a janitor and still have valid data proving his point....ad hominem is the weakest of arguments and oddly enough it is your go to mode of argument....says much about you rocks....speaks volumes about your character or lack thereof.

 

[Old Rocks]

Show us a model that does not assume AGW that even comes close to hindcasting the temperature trends of the last 100 years.

The point crick....is that no model is accurate because the physical basis of the models are flawed....you don't need to have a model that can hind cast accurately to prove that the present crop of models are failing miserably....the fact is that we don't know nearly enough about the climate and what drives it to make any claims whatsoever...the fact of the 2 decade pause while CO2 has climbed steadily is strong observed, measured, quantified evidence that the CO2 portion of the AGW hypothesis, and the greenhouse hypothesis are wrong.

What the fuck are you talking about? Two decade pause? Of the fifteen warmest years on record, all have occurred in that two decade period. Those two decades would have started in 1996, since 2015 is the last full year on record. You guys not only lie incessantly, you can't even count.

And 2015 really was one big jump in the record, between 2015, and what we have seen in the first three months of 2016, we have seen a step up equal to that of 1998. Now, as we come of this El Nino, watch you silly asses try to tell everyone we are in a cooling because the next few years don't match what we have just seen. Then, another strong El Nino, and, once again, the record is broken. What a bunch of idiots you are demonstrating yourselves to be.

 

[Old Rocks]

Where's the link to the change in the interpretation of the ice cores?

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special

Excerpt:
"NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special"

jc, nothing about ice cores in that, you lying SOB. And John Coleman has zero credentials or credibility.

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special
Press Release From: KUSI-TV
Posted: Thursday, January 14, 2010

Climate researchers have discovered that NASA researchers improperly manipulated data in order to claim 2005 as "THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD." KUSI-TV meteorologist, Weather Channel founder, and iconic weatherman John Coleman will present these findings in a one-hour special airing on KUSI-TV on Jan.14 at 9 p.m. A related report will be made available on the Internet at 6 p.m. EST on January 14th at www.kusi.com.

In a new report, computer expert E. Michael Smith and Certified Consulting Meteorologist Joseph D'Aleo discovered extensive manipulation of the temperature data by the U.S. Government's two primary climate centers: the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) in Ashville, North Carolina and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) at Columbia University in New York City. Smith and D'Aleo accuse these centers of manipulating temperature data to give the appearance of warmer temperatures than actually occurred by trimming the number and location of weather observation stations. The report is available online at http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NOAAroleinclimategate.pdf.

dude, to change the past records, one would have to change the noted temperature anomalies taken from ice cores. Not sure how else they can change 6000 year old records.

jc, that was not your claim. You claimed they changed the data from the cores. Since you can find that data in many papers on Google Scholar, it should be very easy for you to back up that claim. You cannot because that claim is pulled out of your ass, and smells like the shit it is.

Don't you ever get tired of being proven to be an asshole liar?

 

[Old Rocks]

John Coleman

​

Learn more from theCenter for Media and Democracy's research on climate change.

John Coleman founded The Weather Channel in 1982. He is currently the weatherman at station KUSI-TV in San Diego, California. He spoke as a global warming skeptic at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change and the International Conference on Climate Change (2009). Both events were organized by the Heartland Institute think tank. [1]

John Coleman may describe himself as a scientist or even a meteorologist but he is neither. His degree is in media studies [2]

John Coleman - SourceWatch

Just another liar on the Exxon-Mobile payroll.

None of which addresses the accuracy or inaccuracy of his claims...he could be a janitor and still have valid data proving his point....ad hominem is the weakest of arguments and oddly enough it is your go to mode of argument....says much about you rocks....speaks volumes about your character or lack thereof.

But his claim has absolutely nothing to do with ice cores.

 

[jc456]

Show us a model that does not assume AGW that even comes close to hindcasting the temperature trends of the last 100 years.

The point crick....is that no model is accurate because the physical basis of the models are flawed....you don't need to have a model that can hind cast accurately to prove that the present crop of models are failing miserably....the fact is that we don't know nearly enough about the climate and what drives it to make any claims whatsoever...the fact of the 2 decade pause while CO2 has climbed steadily is strong observed, measured, quantified evidence that the CO2 portion of the AGW hypothesis, and the greenhouse hypothesis are wrong.

What the fuck are you talking about? Two decade pause? Of the fifteen warmest years on record, all have occurred in that two decade period. Those two decades would have started in 1996, since 2015 is the last full year on record. You guys not only lie incessantly, you can't even count.

And 2015 really was one big jump in the record, between 2015, and what we have seen in the first three months of 2016, we have seen a step up equal to that of 1998. Now, as we come of this El Nino, watch you silly asses try to tell everyone we are in a cooling because the next few years don't match what we have just seen. Then, another strong El Nino, and, once again, the record is broken. What a bunch of idiots you are demonstrating yourselves to be.

and yet the IPCC AR5 report from 2013 states this:

excerpt:
"As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to 0.15] °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade)5."

Blows all CO2 claims out of the water.

 

[jc456]

Where's the link to the change in the interpretation of the ice cores?

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special

Excerpt:
"NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special"

jc, nothing about ice cores in that, you lying SOB. And John Coleman has zero credentials or credibility.

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special
Press Release From: KUSI-TV
Posted: Thursday, January 14, 2010

Climate researchers have discovered that NASA researchers improperly manipulated data in order to claim 2005 as "THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD." KUSI-TV meteorologist, Weather Channel founder, and iconic weatherman John Coleman will present these findings in a one-hour special airing on KUSI-TV on Jan.14 at 9 p.m. A related report will be made available on the Internet at 6 p.m. EST on January 14th at www.kusi.com.

In a new report, computer expert E. Michael Smith and Certified Consulting Meteorologist Joseph D'Aleo discovered extensive manipulation of the temperature data by the U.S. Government's two primary climate centers: the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) in Ashville, North Carolina and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) at Columbia University in New York City. Smith and D'Aleo accuse these centers of manipulating temperature data to give the appearance of warmer temperatures than actually occurred by trimming the number and location of weather observation stations. The report is available online at http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NOAAroleinclimategate.pdf.

dude, to change the past records, one would have to change the noted temperature anomalies taken from ice cores. Not sure how else they can change 6000 year old records.

jc, that was not your claim. You claimed they changed the data from the cores. Since you can find that data in many papers on Google Scholar, it should be very easy for you to back up that claim. You cannot because that claim is pulled out of your ass, and smells like the shit it is.

Don't you ever get tired of being proven to be an asshole liar?

they did if they changed the data from 6000 years ago. Sorry, no other way to manipulate without doing that.

 

[Markle]

We agree that the earth is warming...or cooling...where we disagree is the unsubstantiable claim that man is responsible.

However look at the seas. The PH levels are going down, the CO2 levels are rising massive, and it just happens to coincide with humanity pumping CO2 into the atmosphere.

Which part of what I've said do you disagree with?

What do you suppose the Ph levels were just prior to the beginning of the present ice age when atmospheric CO2 levels were in excess of 1000ppm?...and how do you suppose CO2 levels got that high...and higher without the aid of internal combustion engines? In fact, if you look at the history of the earth, the present 400 ppm of atmospheric CO2 represents an atmosphere that is positively starved for CO2....not massive CO2 levels at all.

The Earth has changed. In the past CO2 was much higher. Then again it didn't have the current crop of animals on the planet for the most part.

Co2 levels may very well have changed dramatically killing off everything in the seas, or it may well have changed over time allowing for evolution to take its time in changing those creatures and allowing them to adapt.

However this isn't necessarily the point here.

The point is that we are killing the seas. We're going somewhere where we don't know the consequences of our actions.

Now, the planet will probably survive. But will humans? Will CO2 levels rise to a point where the seas die, leading to CO2 and other greenhouse gases making the planet inhospitable to humans?

This is really the main point about what we're doing to the planet.

Please show me your source and link to a reliable source that CO2 is the only cause of changes in the ocean. What do any and all green plants produce at night?

I didn't say that CO2 is the only cause of change in the oceans.

So what percentage? Is CO2 NOT an absolute necessity for plant growth in the oceans?

 

[Old Rocks]

Where's the link to the change in the interpretation of the ice cores?

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special

Excerpt:
"NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special"

jc, nothing about ice cores in that, you lying SOB. And John Coleman has zero credentials or credibility.

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special

NASA Caught in Climate Data Manipulation; New Revelations Headlined on KUSI-TV Climate Special
Press Release From: KUSI-TV
Posted: Thursday, January 14, 2010

Climate researchers have discovered that NASA researchers improperly manipulated data in order to claim 2005 as "THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD." KUSI-TV meteorologist, Weather Channel founder, and iconic weatherman John Coleman will present these findings in a one-hour special airing on KUSI-TV on Jan.14 at 9 p.m. A related report will be made available on the Internet at 6 p.m. EST on January 14th at www.kusi.com.

In a new report, computer expert E. Michael Smith and Certified Consulting Meteorologist Joseph D'Aleo discovered extensive manipulation of the temperature data by the U.S. Government's two primary climate centers: the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) in Ashville, North Carolina and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) at Columbia University in New York City. Smith and D'Aleo accuse these centers of manipulating temperature data to give the appearance of warmer temperatures than actually occurred by trimming the number and location of weather observation stations. The report is available online at http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NOAAroleinclimategate.pdf.

dude, to change the past records, one would have to change the noted temperature anomalies taken from ice cores. Not sure how else they can change 6000 year old records.

jc, that was not your claim. You claimed they changed the data from the cores. Since you can find that data in many papers on Google Scholar, it should be very easy for you to back up that claim. You cannot because that claim is pulled out of your ass, and smells like the shit it is.

Don't you ever get tired of being proven to be an asshole liar?

they did if they changed the data from 6000 years ago. Sorry, no other way to manipulate without doing that.

jc, link. Flap yap claims and no link. Lies, all lies. That is what you post, and you cannot deny it. No link, proof of your perfidy.

 

[Old Rocks]

However look at the seas. The PH levels are going down, the CO2 levels are rising massive, and it just happens to coincide with humanity pumping CO2 into the atmosphere.

Which part of what I've said do you disagree with?

What do you suppose the Ph levels were just prior to the beginning of the present ice age when atmospheric CO2 levels were in excess of 1000ppm?...and how do you suppose CO2 levels got that high...and higher without the aid of internal combustion engines? In fact, if you look at the history of the earth, the present 400 ppm of atmospheric CO2 represents an atmosphere that is positively starved for CO2....not massive CO2 levels at all.

The Earth has changed. In the past CO2 was much higher. Then again it didn't have the current crop of animals on the planet for the most part.

Co2 levels may very well have changed dramatically killing off everything in the seas, or it may well have changed over time allowing for evolution to take its time in changing those creatures and allowing them to adapt.

However this isn't necessarily the point here.

The point is that we are killing the seas. We're going somewhere where we don't know the consequences of our actions.

Now, the planet will probably survive. But will humans? Will CO2 levels rise to a point where the seas die, leading to CO2 and other greenhouse gases making the planet inhospitable to humans?

This is really the main point about what we're doing to the planet.

Please show me your source and link to a reliable source that CO2 is the only cause of changes in the ocean. What do any and all green plants produce at night?

I didn't say that CO2 is the only cause of change in the oceans.

So what percentage? Is CO2 NOT an absolute necessity for plant growth in the oceans?

Salt is an absolute necessity in your diet. So just down a pint of it right now. Surely cannot do you any harm, after all, it is a necessity in your diet.

 

[jc456]

What do you suppose the Ph levels were just prior to the beginning of the present ice age when atmospheric CO2 levels were in excess of 1000ppm?...and how do you suppose CO2 levels got that high...and higher without the aid of internal combustion engines? In fact, if you look at the history of the earth, the present 400 ppm of atmospheric CO2 represents an atmosphere that is positively starved for CO2....not massive CO2 levels at all.

The Earth has changed. In the past CO2 was much higher. Then again it didn't have the current crop of animals on the planet for the most part.

Co2 levels may very well have changed dramatically killing off everything in the seas, or it may well have changed over time allowing for evolution to take its time in changing those creatures and allowing them to adapt.

However this isn't necessarily the point here.

The point is that we are killing the seas. We're going somewhere where we don't know the consequences of our actions.

Now, the planet will probably survive. But will humans? Will CO2 levels rise to a point where the seas die, leading to CO2 and other greenhouse gases making the planet inhospitable to humans?

This is really the main point about what we're doing to the planet.

Please show me your source and link to a reliable source that CO2 is the only cause of changes in the ocean. What do any and all green plants produce at night?

I didn't say that CO2 is the only cause of change in the oceans.

So what percentage? Is CO2 NOT an absolute necessity for plant growth in the oceans?

Salt is an absolute necessity in your diet. So just down a pint of it right now. Surely cannot do you any harm, after all, it is a necessity in your diet.

and there is evidence to support the salt reference, but you still don't have one for the CO2 thingy. Remember less LWIR means more warming. hahahaahahhahaahahahahaha and you call yourself science knowledgeable.

 

[Markle]

Sorry rocks...I keep forgetting that you are one of those poor dupes who believes that the earth has exited the ice age that began at the mid point of the tertiary period and continues today and will continue till such time as there is no ice at the poles....as you can see from the graph below, when the decent into the ice age that continues today began, atmospheric CO2 was at about 1000ppm...

Do yourself a quick google of the term "current ice age" and read some of the 15,000 odd hits you get...learn something rocks...

Lordy, lordy, Cannot read a simple graph, eh. The current ice ages began about 2 million years ago. And the CO2 level was considerably less than 1000 ppm at that time. Since the Tertiary is roughly 65 millions years in length, two million years ago is hardly the midpoint.

So rocks....in order to melt the ice at one or both poles, and effectively end the ice age, the average mean temperature would need to reach about 18C...when has that happened?

My goodness, SSDD, you do enjoy playing the complete idiot. Melt enough ice to raise the sea level three feet, and most of the seaports in the world are in major trouble. With just on increase of 20 ppm over the normal 280, during the eemian period, about 130,000 years ago, the sea level was at least 20 feet higher than today. We have not even began to see the results of the present 400+ ppm in the atmosphere today. But that same inertia in the system means that when we do see it, we will be seeing it for a long time.

huh? Melting ice where?

Antarctica, where it matters.

Let me guess, you'll pull charts of ice covering a wider areas as "evidence" that there's MORE ice, even though it fails to take into account the thickness of that ice.

Was it NOT forecast, ten or so years ago, that the Arctic would be ICE FREE? Just curious....

 

[Markle]

Show us a model that does not assume AGW that even comes close to hindcasting the temperature trends of the last 100 years.

The point crick....is that no model is accurate because the physical basis of the models are flawed....you don't need to have a model that can hind cast accurately to prove that the present crop of models are failing miserably....the fact is that we don't know nearly enough about the climate and what drives it to make any claims whatsoever...the fact of the 2 decade pause while CO2 has climbed steadily is strong observed, measured, quantified evidence that the CO2 portion of the AGW hypothesis, and the greenhouse hypothesis are wrong.

What the fuck are you talking about? Two decade pause? Of the fifteen warmest years on record, all have occurred in that two decade period. Those two decades would have started in 1996, since 2015 is the last full year on record. You guys not only lie incessantly, you can't even count.

And 2015 really was one big jump in the record, between 2015, and what we have seen in the first three months of 2016, we have seen a step up equal to that of 1998. Now, as we come of this El Nino, watch you silly asses try to tell everyone we are in a cooling because the next few years don't match what we have just seen. Then, another strong El Nino, and, once again, the record is broken. What a bunch of idiots you are demonstrating yourselves to be.

The Pause hangs on by its fingernails
Guest Blogger / February 6, 2016

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The sharp el Niño spike is just about to abolish the long Pause in global temperatures – at least for now. This column has long foretold that the present el Niño would be substantial, and that it might at least shorten if not extinguish the Pause. After all, theory requires that some global warming ought to occur.

This month, though, the Pause clings on. Though January 2016 was the warmest January in the RSS satellite record since 1979, the El Niño spike has not yet lasted long enough to end the Pause. That will happen by next month’s report. The RSS data still show no global warming for 18 years 8 months, notwithstanding record increases in CO2 concentration over the period.

The Pause hangs on by its fingernails

 

[SSDD]

What the fuck are you talking about? Two decade pause? Of the fifteen warmest years on record, all have occurred in that two decade period. Those two decades would have started in 1996, since 2015 is the last full year on record. You guys not only lie incessantly, you can't even count.

Warmest years?...by hundredths of a degree....after heavy massaging of the data....you are kidding...right?...

 

[SSDD]

Salt is an absolute necessity in your diet. So just down a pint of it right now. Surely cannot do you any harm, after all, it is a necessity in your diet.

Tired old meaningless argument....just like you rocks...alarmist handwaving is not science and that seems to be all you have...that and the out put of failed climate models...certainly nothing like observed, measured, quantified evidence to support any of your claims.

 

[Skull Pilot]

You skeptics and deniers often say why don't we warmers make predictions that are in the short term so we can be called out for them? Well, I am going to make a few and tie them in with the enso. I am making a assumption that the global temperature will be .05-.1c warmer based on the giss dataset then we were pre-2015-2016 nino. I will put my credibility on the line and I want a mod to pin this at the top of this forum for skeptics/deniers to rip me apart when I get it wrong!

When will I be wrong?
1. IF we see a moderate nina year that turns out to be .56 or .58c...That is wrong. Rip me a part as a idiot!
2. If we see below .64c in a weak nina! Rip me apart as a idiot!

3. On the other hand it is a possibility that we may hit or break last years record in a neutral year so a high side prediction is wrong but it only proves a warming world!
-------------------------------------------------------
These are the ranges that the means should fall into. All data points GISS(Nasa)!

I will predict that Neutral years will avg near .75c-.80c for 2017-2020 and .77 to .83c for 2021 to 2024. The possibility is there that one could get over .85c during the later part of the period during a neutral year.

Weak ninas(-.5 to -.9c) could see global avg temperatures between .69-.74c. In comparison, 2005's .69 or 2014's global yearly temperature.

Moderate ninas(-1 to -1.4c) will probably see global avg yearly temperatures near .66c +- .3c. Probably warmer then 1998!

Strong Nina's(-1.5c to -2.0) will probably see .58 to .65c depending on how strong. Likelyhood of a .5c yearly global temperature will only occur in a -1.8c or above nina.

Every prediction has been wrong so far.

Why should we believe this one?

Now that is one really stupid thing to state. You people were first stating that it was not warming, and when it became so evident that it is warming, you changed your tune to 'it's natural variability'. Is is you asshole deniers that have failed completely in your predictions.

You were all talking about no warming since 1998, yet here we are with 2015 totally blowing away the warming in 1998. The ice continues to melt to in the Arctic, Greenland, and Antarctic, the alpine glaciers worldwide continue to retreat. Why the lies, Skull? What are you gaining by that, other than loosing any credibility that you have left?

Hey fuck wad I never denied the earth is warming slightly and I even agree that people can cause climate change.

I just don't fall for the biblical disaster spiel that you do.

And not one of these dire predictions has come to pass as yet so why should these be any different?

 

[Crick]

Every prediction has been wrong so far.

Why should we believe this one?

He's not asking you to, dipshit. He's just laying it out there for all of us to call him on when it comes due.

Nobody here really gives a shit what you believe.

 

[Skull Pilot]

Every prediction has been wrong so far.

Why should we believe this one?

He's not asking you to, dipshit. He's just laying it out there for all of us to call him on when it comes due.

Nobody here really gives a shit what you believe.

Was I talking to you?

In case you're too fucking stupid to realize it. I wasn't.