Remember I told you so... as Pollsters go back to drawing board!

[The Sage of Main Street]

Before the election I said many times that Trump was going to do 3-5% better than the polls indicated.

The pollsters had a flawed system.

They sampled a small number of voters, usually around a thousand, and then extrapolated the predictions to a larger population based upon traditional R v D historical voting models.

The problem is that those models were not accurate for a populist candidate like Trump. The models failed to estimate the number of blue collar Americans that may have voted for Democrats in the past but chose Trump this time. It also assumed the same number of Black voters that voted for Obama would turn out to vote for Crooked Hillary and that didn't happen.

On top of the failed models the pollsters did not have a good accounting of the people that did not like Crooked Hillary. She had no real base for her personally. She had some of the Democrat base simply because she had a "D" by her name but nobody really liked her.

you give them too much credit, they were corrupt and biased and had an agenda to help the hildebeast. the "errors" were intentional.

I suspect they liked the results of the flawed models and didn't have the incentive to do the job right.

Truthie Serum

Sounds like the Warmalarmies' data-bending, which by no coincidence is also pushed by the muddled media.

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Pollsters who missed Donald Trump’s surprise electoral victory are headed back to the drawing board.
Most polls predicted a Hillary Clinton victory on Election Day, with some positively bullish on the likelihood of a Clinton White House.

Pollsters go back to drawing board

Remember I told you people that the biased MSM presenting Hillary as the savior and Trump as the devil
was going to lead to a Trump victory!
The reason was strictly personal.
I've been called so many names by people because I supported Trump beginning last year.
Millions of voters LIKE me have been called "deplorables"... "racist"... sexist. All sorts of names but with
NO Proof of Trump being any of those things nor am I any of those characteristics.
So is it any surprise when these pompous pollsters not only load the statistics generally 5 to 10% more Democrats were polled then GOP,naturally the statistics are skewed... BUT when these same pompous
intellectual pinheads known as the "pundits" keep making millions of people like me out to be really ignorant why should we millions respond EXCEPT in the voting booth!

We know we aren't racists. I for one had a black cousin in the 50s in the middle of Iowa!
I also know that Trump like me and millions like me ARE NOT anti-immigrants!
Trump married an immigrant. My daughter-in-law is an immigrant... BUT LEGAL!
But do the majority of anti-Trump including the biased MSM make that distinction?
Proof they don't!
A Google search moments ago of "Trump is anti-immigrant" shows 12,800 results.
None of which use the simple adjective "illegal"!

So thank goodness for the growing distrust of the pollsters/MSM/ and ignorant people that believed the pollsters and MSM's very biased favoritism of Hillary and large number of negative Trump stories.
As a consequence most of us Trump supporters/voters just went quietly about our lives and made a difference behind the curtain!

Good lord

I posted two weeks before the election that unless Clinton had a lead of more than 3.9% in the national polls, her chances of winning an electoral college election was less than 50%.

Under that, she loses swing states and marginal blues.

Pretty simple math.

The polls were not wrong, but you must adjust them for surplus votes in large states.

the polls had her winning those states--------------they were wrong. Either by design or by bad sampling. But they were wrong.

States that are too close to call are that for a reason. Taking national polls and deducting surplus votes from large states gives you a better view overall.

She needed a 3.9% lead nationally to be competitive in the swings and marginal blue/red states. If memory serves me she was at 2.4 and was doomed. Her lead with surplus votes in California, on a national basis gave her a 1.8% lead.

She needed to make up 5 million votes in the swing states. Impossible.

Señora Deplora

What percentage of elective offices in Mexico are held by women? That may be why the illegals wouldn't vote for Shrillary in the sanctuary cities where they could get away with it.