The Arctic is already effectively ice free

[Old Rocks]

I never said the whole Navy. Reread my post.
http://www.oc.nps.edu/NAME/Maslowski et al. 2012 EPS Future of Arctic Sea Ice.pdf
TheFutureofArcticSeaIce WieslawMaslowski,1JaclynClementKinney,1 MatthewHiggins,2andAndrewRoberts1 1DepartmentofOceanography,NavalPostgraduateSchool,Monterey,California93943; email:[email protected],[email protected],[email protected] 2CooperativeInstituteforResearchinEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofColorado, Boulder,Colorado80309;email:[email protected]
Do they represent the school?

in this paper, by 3 from the school, they make the prediction of 2016, but with many caveats-
Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000km 3(Kwoketal.2009), one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016±3years to reach an early ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover.(We do note that other published estimates also have large or indeterminate uncertainties.) At the same time, observational proxies of ice thickness (Maslaniketal.2011) and independent model estimates(PolarScienceCenter2011) of sea ice volume suggest a further decline of ice volume since 2007.

One thing of note from this papers date of 2012, is 2012 had growth of the sea ice that is not observed in this prediciton.

One guy in the Navy made such a prediction. Why do you keep claiming the whole Navy made it?

depotoo

One thing of note from this papers date of 2012, is 2012 had growth of the sea ice that is not observed in this prediciton.
...........................................................................................................................................

2012 had a growth of sea ice? 2012 was the lowest year on record. Every year since 2007 has been to a low of less than 4 million km^2, 2012 being well below 3 million km^2. We are just now crossing the 4 million km^2 line. If you look at the graph, you can see that the declines seem to be stepped.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png

 

[Crick]

 

[koshergrl]

I see you've found a chart that shows quality of life plummeting as a result of needless hardships imposed by crazed, anti human global warming wackadoodles...

 

[Crick]

No, I've found a chart that shows the mass of ice at the Arctic descending towards zero.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

No, I've found a chart that shows the mass of ice at the Arctic descending towards zero.

And snow is a thing of the past too.

You're blaming this all on the 7% of the "excess heat" that's not absorbed by the oceans and allegedly caused by a wisp of CO2, correct?

 

[koshergrl]

Going the other way, it would accurately reflect death trends for vulnerable people on fixed incomes as their death rate rockets thanks to energy rates and food costs priced out of their range thanks to unnecessary and punitive pricing and limited availability of heat and food.

 

[depotoo]

I meant 2013.

I never said the whole Navy. Reread my post.
http://www.oc.nps.edu/NAME/Maslowski et al. 2012 EPS Future of Arctic Sea Ice.pdf
TheFutureofArcticSeaIce WieslawMaslowski,1JaclynClementKinney,1 MatthewHiggins,2andAndrewRoberts1 1DepartmentofOceanography,NavalPostgraduateSchool,Monterey,California93943; email:[email protected],[email protected],[email protected] 2CooperativeInstituteforResearchinEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofColorado, Boulder,Colorado80309;email:[email protected]
Do they represent the school?

in this paper, by 3 from the school, they make the prediction of 2016, but with many caveats-
Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000km 3(Kwoketal.2009), one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016±3years to reach an early ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover.(We do note that other published estimates also have large or indeterminate uncertainties.) At the same time, observational proxies of ice thickness (Maslaniketal.2011) and independent model estimates(PolarScienceCenter2011) of sea ice volume suggest a further decline of ice volume since 2007.

One thing of note from this papers date of 2012, is 2012 had growth of the sea ice that is not observed in this prediciton.

One guy in the Navy made such a prediction. Why do you keep claiming the whole Navy made it?

depotoo

One thing of note from this papers date of 2012, is 2012 had growth of the sea ice that is not observed in this prediciton.
...........................................................................................................................................

2012 had a growth of sea ice? 2012 was the lowest year on record. Every year since 2007 has been to a low of less than 4 million km^2, 2012 being well below 3 million km^2. We are just now crossing the 4 million km^2 line. If you look at the graph, you can see that the declines seem to be stepped.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png

 

[Crick]

No, I've found a chart that shows the mass of ice at the Arctic descending towards zero.

And snow is a thing of the past too.

I never said any such thing.

You're blaming this all on the 7% of the "excess heat" that's not absorbed by the oceans and allegedly caused by a wisp of CO2, correct?

Don't be stupid Frank. You know precisely what the world's scientists blame it on.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

No, I've found a chart that shows the mass of ice at the Arctic descending towards zero.

And snow is a thing of the past too.

I never said any such thing.

You're blaming this all on the 7% of the "excess heat" that's not absorbed by the oceans and allegedly caused by a wisp of CO2, correct?

Don't be stupid Frank. You know precisely what the world's scientists blame it on.

Insults are still not explanations.

It's not my fault your theory fails

 

[Crick]

The theories of mainstream science; of the vast majority of climate scientists, do NOT fail. Yours do. If you don't like the insults, cease and desist on these idiotic fixations and at least expend enough mental energy to understand the positions you've decided to oppose.

 

[Uncensored2008]

This isn't news :/

It also isn't true - nor anywhere close to true.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The theories of mainstream science; of the vast majority of climate scientists, do NOT fail. Yours do. If you don't like the insults, cease and desist on these idiotic fixations and at least expend enough mental energy to understand the positions you've decided to oppose.

Crick, your latest AGW iteration claims 93% of the "excess heat" is absorbed by the oceans, how much "excess heat" does that leave to melt the Arctic?

 

[Crick]

Don't you think warmed waters might have an effect on the Arctic's ice pack? Scientists do.

And your continuing failure to understand the picture being painted here is getting a little frustrating Frank. The oceans have ALWAYS absorbed ~90% of the solar energy striking the Earth. There has been no enormous change - some changes, but it's not like it used to be 60% or 70%. It is determined by the properties of water vs air vs land. It's why firemen don't throw rocks at burning houses or bring fans to blow them out.

 

[Uncensored2008]

The theories of mainstream science; of the vast majority of climate scientists, do NOT fail. Yours do. If you don't like the insults, cease and desist on these idiotic fixations and at least expend enough mental energy to understand the positions you've decided to oppose.

The biggest problem with AGW advocates is that you flat out lie. Lying isn't good science. I realize grants are at stake, but once you make lying the foundation of your position, taking you seriously is impossible.

The arctic is ice free?

Uh no, but if you tell wild lies, you'll get the attention of politicians and more grant money - so you lie - without hesitation.

The picture is from July.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Don't you think warmed waters might have an effect on the Arctic's ice pack? Scientists do.

And your continuing failure to understand the picture being painted here is getting a little frustrating Frank. The oceans have ALWAYS absorbed ~90% of the solar energy striking the Earth. There has been no enormous change - some changes, but it's not like it used to be 60% or 70%. It is determined by the properties of water vs air vs land. It's why firemen don't throw rocks at burning houses or bring fans to blow them out.

From undersea volcanoes, sure. Are you claiming that AGW is causing undersea volcanoes or can you show us how much of this imaginary "excess heat" was absorbed by the Arctic sea

 

[westwall]

You don't think there's anything special about the current drought in the southwest? It's broken records dating back centuries. Or do you think those are the lies of conspirators getting rich from drought measures?

No there isn't. What makes you think there is? I'm just wondering....

 

[CrusaderFrank]

What's the average temperature of the Arctic ocean?

 

[flacaltenn]

Sometimes you gotta stop reading graphs and just look out the winder.. From just last month to go with Uncensored Pix above..

CCGS Amundsen re-routed to Hudson Bay to help with heavy ice - North - CBC News

CCGS Amundsen re-routed to Hudson Bay to help with heavy ice
Worst ice conditions in 20 years force change of plans to icebreaker research program
CBC News Posted: Jul 22, 2015 6:56 AM CT Last Updated: Jul 22, 2015 6:56 AM CT

Worst conditions in 20 years

Johnny Leclair, assistant commissioner for the Coast Guard, said Tuesday conditions in the area are the worst he's seen in 20 years.

With only two icebreakers available in the Arctic — the CCGS Pierre Radisson has been escorting resupply ships through ice-choked Frobisher Bay — he said the only option was to re-deploy the Amundsen


Ironically -- The Global Warming scientists packed onto that ship are pissed...

Arctic research expedition put on hold after vessel diverted to break ice - The Globe and Mail


An Arctic science expedition planned with all the precision of a space mission has been knocked off track by a federal government decision to reassign a Coast Guard research vessel to do urgent ice breaking duties.

Instead of carrying 40 scientists deep into the Arctic to research climate change, the Amundsen has been temporarily reassigned to break ice for several commercial supply ships trying to reach remote communities on the Hudson Bay coast.

“The Amundsen has never been diverted from science for ice breaking duty in the Arctic according to the Captain,” wrote Dr. Cullen, a University of Victoria researcher whose Geotraces project relates to the impacts of ocean acidification and climate change effects.

He said research projects, some of which took four years to plan, will have to be put aside.

“Some proposed scientific operations will be cancelled,” he wrote.

Dr. Cullen said he understood the urgency of helping supply ships, but was disappointed the Coast Guard didn’t have any other vessels available.

One of the reasons I don't give a flying fuck about sea ice is that I spent several years to Earth Resource Imaging Analysis from early (LandSat era) satellites. And I know how subjective a lot of the measurements are. And I stopped caring about the "sea ice" disappearing when I read that "iced" meant that any standard size patch of Arctic Ocean had 15% ice coverage. That's not "iced".. It's Ice-Cubes bobbing in open water. The metric is also subject to HUGER variations due to simple weather and sea state. In other words, it's as valuable as the governments best and recent estimates of illegal aliens in this country... Or Obama's estimates of the savings from ObamaCare..

 

[Old Rocks]

A whole bunch of real scientists that say there is, unlike certain poseurs on the internet.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

A whole bunch of real scientists that say there is, unlike certain poseurs on the internet.

Riiiiiight, because in your bizzaroland

Models> reality