The arctic sea ice and why we shouldn't expect this year or the next 3 to beat 2012.

[ScienceRocks]

The arctic sea ice and why we shouldn't expect this year or the next 3 to beat 2012.

Simple 2 reasons...1. 2012 was like 1998 was until 2016 is now in global temperatures. It is a huge fucking anomaly from hell and most years that don't have a perfect set-up aint going to do it. 2. Open oceans during the spring-summer = more energy to make stronger storms. What this occurs is such storms will make more clouds = blocking solar energy getting to the ice to melt it from June-Sept. I was reading a research paper a few years ago that suggested that this could be a negative feed back that prevented an ice free arctic in the short term.

So during the late fall through winter we will have polar amplification = super low sea ice. This is what we're seeing

Then as we enter summer the stronger storms will reflect more of the energy and prevent an ice free arctic.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Negative feedback? Declining sea ice to lead to cloudier Arctic

• EFA method is valuable in providing quantitative assessment of feedback
• Decrease in sea ice leads to increase in cloud
• Further decline in sea ice will likely result in cloudier Arctic

Arctic sea ice has been declining over the past several decades as global climate has warmed. In fact, sea ice has declined more quickly than many models predicted, indicating that climate models may not be correctly representing some processes controlling sea ice.


One source of uncertainty in models is feedback from cloud cover. Sea ice can affect cloud cover, as melting sea ice and increased evaporation from the ocean surface can lead to more cloud formation. In the Arctic, clouds have an overall warming effect on the surface, so greater cloudiness in this region could lead to even more sea-ice melt.

Liu et al. analyzed satellite observations of cloud cover and sea ice from 2000 to 2010 to evaluate feedbacks between sea ice and cloud cover. They find that a 1 percent decrease in sea ice concentration leads to a 0.36–0.47 percent increase in cloud cover, and that 22–34 percent of variance in cloud cover can be explained by changes in sea ice. So as sea ice declines, the researchers predict that the Arctic will become cloudier.

Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2012GL051251, 2012 A cloudier Arctic expected with diminishing sea ice

 

[theHawk]

Arctic ice has been declining for 12,000 years you moron.

If and when the planet gets much warmer, it just means more water will be evaporated into the atmosphere, which will end up blocking sunlight. That's why the next phase in Earth climate will be another ice age.

It's all happened before, and will happen again. So stop living in fear of it. Stop being a bedwetter.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

Negative feedback? Declining sea ice to lead to cloudier Arctic

• EFA method is valuable in providing quantitative assessment of feedback
• Decrease in sea ice leads to increase in cloud
• Further decline in sea ice will likely result in cloudier Arctic

Arctic sea ice has been declining over the past several decades as global climate has warmed. In fact, sea ice has declined more quickly than many models predicted, indicating that climate models may not be correctly representing some processes controlling sea ice.


One source of uncertainty in models is feedback from cloud cover. Sea ice can affect cloud cover, as melting sea ice and increased evaporation from the ocean surface can lead to more cloud formation. In the Arctic, clouds have an overall warming effect on the surface, so greater cloudiness in this region could lead to even more sea-ice melt.

Liu et al. analyzed satellite observations of cloud cover and sea ice from 2000 to 2010 to evaluate feedbacks between sea ice and cloud cover. They find that a 1 percent decrease in sea ice concentration leads to a 0.36–0.47 percent increase in cloud cover, and that 22–34 percent of variance in cloud cover can be explained by changes in sea ice. So as sea ice declines, the researchers predict that the Arctic will become cloudier.

Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2012GL051251, 2012 A cloudier Arctic expected with diminishing sea ice

So in other words, we still don't completely understand what is happening and new theories emerge on a fairly regular basis. I got it.

 

[Dale Smith]

Here is your "climate change". It's referred to as geo-engineering.

 

[Old Rocks]

Negative feedback? Declining sea ice to lead to cloudier Arctic

• EFA method is valuable in providing quantitative assessment of feedback
• Decrease in sea ice leads to increase in cloud
• Further decline in sea ice will likely result in cloudier Arctic

Arctic sea ice has been declining over the past several decades as global climate has warmed. In fact, sea ice has declined more quickly than many models predicted, indicating that climate models may not be correctly representing some processes controlling sea ice.


One source of uncertainty in models is feedback from cloud cover. Sea ice can affect cloud cover, as melting sea ice and increased evaporation from the ocean surface can lead to more cloud formation. In the Arctic, clouds have an overall warming effect on the surface, so greater cloudiness in this region could lead to even more sea-ice melt.

Liu et al. analyzed satellite observations of cloud cover and sea ice from 2000 to 2010 to evaluate feedbacks between sea ice and cloud cover. They find that a 1 percent decrease in sea ice concentration leads to a 0.36–0.47 percent increase in cloud cover, and that 22–34 percent of variance in cloud cover can be explained by changes in sea ice. So as sea ice declines, the researchers predict that the Arctic will become cloudier.

Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2012GL051251, 2012 A cloudier Arctic expected with diminishing sea ice

So in other words, we still don't completely understand what is happening and new theories emerge on a fairly regular basis. I got it.

Well now, that is correct. We don't know all the factors. At the start of this century, we expected the Northwest Passage to open up towards the end of this century. It opened up in 2007. Last year, a luxury liner with 1000 passengers transited the Passage. The tickets are already sold for this years transit.

And the correct word is predictions, not theories. Who would have thought when Dr. Hansen made his accurate predictions in his 1981 paper on CO2 that a warmer arctic would have equaled colder winters for the Northeast? We don't yet understand the totality of the effects of global warming. But we do understand that most of them are not going to please us.

 

[Old Rocks]

Here is your "climate change". It's referred to as geo-engineering.

Oh, where is my little tin hat, little tin hat, little tin hat..........................................................................

 

[Dale Smith]

Here is your "climate change". It's referred to as geo-engineering.

Oh, where is my little tin hat, little tin hat, little tin hat..........................................................................

OldFuck, water and soil samples do not lie.......isn't that "science", you geriatric sack 'o' shit? You are being sprayed like a fucking bug. Have you ever looked at anything other than the globalist leftard talking points?????? I attack every issue from every angle possible which is why I NEVER lose debates.....not ever. I KNOW of what I speak....you are merely a parrot. You should be grateful for the time I spend here trying to alert people to the fact that they are being lied to.


Watch this and debunk it........it's very detailed.....what say ye?

 

[Dale Smith]

 

[Mousterian]

The contrails are not bug-spray, but they do actually have a role in warming the planet:
NASA - Clouds Caused By Aircraft Exhaust May Warm The U.S. Climate
Of course, this is all from scientists in the pay of those evil GW Conspirators.

 

[Mousterian]

I know you low-information conservatives will dismiss this premise, knowing, as you do that clouds cause cooling. But that is only part of the equation. Cirrus (high) clouds actually trap more heat than they reflect, hence adding to the anthro GW that is rapidly advancing.
Down near the bottom, where you didn't bother to go, you'll find:
"Persisting contrails can spread into extensive cirrus clouds that tend to warm the Earth, because they reflect less sunlight than the amount of heat they trap. The balance between Earth's incoming sunlight and outgoing heat drives climate change."

 

[BuckToothMoron]

Negative feedback? Declining sea ice to lead to cloudier Arctic

• EFA method is valuable in providing quantitative assessment of feedback
• Decrease in sea ice leads to increase in cloud
• Further decline in sea ice will likely result in cloudier Arctic

Arctic sea ice has been declining over the past several decades as global climate has warmed. In fact, sea ice has declined more quickly than many models predicted, indicating that climate models may not be correctly representing some processes controlling sea ice.


One source of uncertainty in models is feedback from cloud cover. Sea ice can affect cloud cover, as melting sea ice and increased evaporation from the ocean surface can lead to more cloud formation. In the Arctic, clouds have an overall warming effect on the surface, so greater cloudiness in this region could lead to even more sea-ice melt.

Liu et al. analyzed satellite observations of cloud cover and sea ice from 2000 to 2010 to evaluate feedbacks between sea ice and cloud cover. They find that a 1 percent decrease in sea ice concentration leads to a 0.36–0.47 percent increase in cloud cover, and that 22–34 percent of variance in cloud cover can be explained by changes in sea ice. So as sea ice declines, the researchers predict that the Arctic will become cloudier.

Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2012GL051251, 2012 A cloudier Arctic expected with diminishing sea ice

So in other words, we still don't completely understand what is happening and new theories emerge on a fairly regular basis. I got it.

Well now, that is correct. We don't know all the factors. At the start of this century, we expected the Northwest Passage to open up towards the end of this century. It opened up in 2007. Last year, a luxury liner with 1000 passengers transited the Passage. The tickets are already sold for this years transit.

And the correct word is predictions, not theories. Who would have thought when Dr. Hansen made his accurate predictions in his 1981 paper on CO2 that a warmer arctic would have equaled colder winters for the Northeast? We don't yet understand the totality of the effects of global warming. But we do understand that most of them are not going to please us.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The arctic sea ice and why we shouldn't expect this year or the next 3 to beat 2012.

Simple 2 reasons...1. 2012 was like 1998 was until 2016 is now in global temperatures. It is a huge fucking anomaly from hell and most years that don't have a perfect set-up aint going to do it. 2. Open oceans during the spring-summer = more energy to make stronger storms. What this occurs is such storms will make more clouds = blocking solar energy getting to the ice to melt it from June-Sept. I was reading a research paper a few years ago that suggested that this could be a negative feed back that prevented an ice free arctic in the short term.

So during the late fall through winter we will have polar amplification = super low sea ice. This is what we're seeing

Then as we enter summer the stronger storms will reflect more of the energy and prevent an ice free arctic.

Because of the 2PPM of CO2 added last year? Really?

 

[BuckToothMoron]

Actually we don't know what the effects will be, or who they may please and who they may make unhappy. Your OP already demonstrated that. And guess what, when the climate model du jour fails like every other model has, some "scientist" will trot out a new and improved version of the same failed science which explains why we should all still be scared of burning to death. And in 20,30 or 50 years when they are still trying to convince us that they have got the science nailed down, there will be some batshit crazy OLDROCKS running around like Chicken Little convinced that man can decide how warm it is, how much it rains or snows, and where all this occurs. I am already bored with you.

 

[mamooth]

Arctic ice has been declining for 12,000 years you moron.

No, it hasn't. Stop making everything up. I know it's what you cult tells you to do, but you need to understand that those outside of your cult are going to point out that you're just making crap up.

If and when the planet gets much warmer, it just means more water will be evaporated into the atmosphere, which will end up blocking sunlight. That's why the next phase in Earth climate will be another ice age.

Most deniers are ice age cultists. Their cult has been making these "ice age any day now!" predictions for 40 years straight now. That ice age never arrives, but it doesn't shake their faith at all. Their cult dogma says the HolyIceAge will arrive, so they BELIEVE.

In contrast, the scientists have been consistently predicting warming since the 1970s and have been proven to be correct. That's why climate science has such credibility, because it's been getting every prediction right for the past 40 years.

It's all happened before, and will happen again. So stop living in fear of it. Stop being a bedwetter.

Says the bedwetter who wants everyone to be terrified of his HolyIceAge.

As far as the OP goes, he's right. 2017 will not break the 2012 record. It's likely it will only make second lowest. 2012 was a perfect storm year -- consistent sunlight on the ice, constant strong ice export through the Fram Strait, all ended by a massive Arctic hurricane that churned the ice into the warm water.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Negative feedback? Declining sea ice to lead to cloudier Arctic

• EFA method is valuable in providing quantitative assessment of feedback
• Decrease in sea ice leads to increase in cloud
• Further decline in sea ice will likely result in cloudier Arctic

Arctic sea ice has been declining over the past several decades as global climate has warmed. In fact, sea ice has declined more quickly than many models predicted, indicating that climate models may not be correctly representing some processes controlling sea ice.


One source of uncertainty in models is feedback from cloud cover. Sea ice can affect cloud cover, as melting sea ice and increased evaporation from the ocean surface can lead to more cloud formation. In the Arctic, clouds have an overall warming effect on the surface, so greater cloudiness in this region could lead to even more sea-ice melt.

Liu et al. analyzed satellite observations of cloud cover and sea ice from 2000 to 2010 to evaluate feedbacks between sea ice and cloud cover. They find that a 1 percent decrease in sea ice concentration leads to a 0.36–0.47 percent increase in cloud cover, and that 22–34 percent of variance in cloud cover can be explained by changes in sea ice. So as sea ice declines, the researchers predict that the Arctic will become cloudier.

Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2012GL051251, 2012 A cloudier Arctic expected with diminishing sea ice

So in other words, we still don't completely understand what is happening and new theories emerge on a fairly regular basis. I got it.

Well now, that is correct. We don't know all the factors. At the start of this century, we expected the Northwest Passage to open up towards the end of this century. It opened up in 2007. Last year, a luxury liner with 1000 passengers transited the Passage. The tickets are already sold for this years transit.

And the correct word is predictions, not theories. Who would have thought when Dr. Hansen made his accurate predictions in his 1981 paper on CO2 that a warmer arctic would have equaled colder winters for the Northeast? We don't yet understand the totality of the effects of global warming. But we do understand that most of them are not going to please us.

...and that's why Guam, Manhattan and the Maldives are now underwater

Hey Time Warner, if Global Warming is for real, why move to the Manhattan waterfront?

 

[Billy_Bob]

The arctic sea ice and why we shouldn't expect this year or the next 3 to beat 2012.

Simple 2 reasons...1. 2012 was like 1998 was until 2016 is now in global temperatures. It is a huge fucking anomaly from hell and most years that don't have a perfect set-up aint going to do it. 2. Open oceans during the spring-summer = more energy to make stronger storms. What this occurs is such storms will make more clouds = blocking solar energy getting to the ice to melt it from June-Sept. I was reading a research paper a few years ago that suggested that this could be a negative feed back that prevented an ice free arctic in the short term.

So during the late fall through winter we will have polar amplification = super low sea ice. This is what we're seeing

Then as we enter summer the stronger storms will reflect more of the energy and prevent an ice free arctic.

Arctic temps have been below average by 1-2 deg C all year. Melt is far less than your fanatics predictions predicted last year and freeze up of the Northwest passage is already occurring. The cruise ship, accompanied by a state of the art ice breaker, made the passage as a publicity stunt and could not have made it on its own and was almost frozen into the ice where both ships would have remained for a very long time. The Captains logs were very telling.

Cooling of the Atlantic feed has already occurred and Greenland has had a record year of ice buildup, over 7 feet of new glacial ice. The Pacific feed has also gone cold so there is little heat to further melt the arctic. The massive ice increase of the arctic has already begun..

There isn't a damn thing anyone can do to stop it.. I find it funny that the articles you cite fail to mention this years buildups and ocean circulations changes.

 

[Billy_Bob]

I know you low-information conservatives will dismiss this premise, knowing, as you do that clouds cause cooling. But that is only part of the equation. Cirrus (high) clouds actually trap more heat than they reflect, hence adding to the anthro GW that is rapidly advancing.
Down near the bottom, where you didn't bother to go, you'll find:
"Persisting contrails can spread into extensive cirrus clouds that tend to warm the Earth, because they reflect less sunlight than the amount of heat they trap. The balance between Earth's incoming sunlight and outgoing heat drives climate change."

Tell me, how do clouds affect our system? I want empirical evidence not your failed modeling bull shit..

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Is there anything that global warming can't do? It's a deity

 

[Old Rocks]

Actually we don't know what the effects will be, or who they may please and who they may make unhappy. Your OP already demonstrated that. And guess what, when the climate model du jour fails like every other model has, some "scientist" will trot out a new and improved version of the same failed science which explains why we should all still be scared of burning to death. And in 20,30 or 50 years when they are still trying to convince us that they have got the science nailed down, there will be some batshit crazy OLDROCKS running around like Chicken Little convinced that man can decide how warm it is, how much it rains or snows, and where all this occurs. I am already bored with you.

Well, for sure you are a moron. And the models have not failed in the manner you suggest. For the most part, most have been too conservative. Such as Dr. Hansen's very accurate predictions from 1981;

Summary. The global temperature rose by 0.20C between the middle 1960's and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1981/1981_Hansen_ha04600x.pdf

The entire article is available at that site. Dr. Hansen's error was that he did not expect the Northwest Passage to open up as soon as 2007.