The € EURO thread

[Toro]

I thought this was excellent.

EconoMonitor : Don't Shoot the Messenger » Last Days of Pompeii?

A small blip.

Secondly there is the problem of population ageing. The figures below show the transformation in Italy’s population pyramid between 1970 and 2030. In many ways Italy’s demography was at the most favourable point for economic growth (supply side) around 1990 (third figure top row) since the proportion of the total population in the working age group was at near its maximum, and the median age of the workforce was still relatively low. The point to get is that it isn’t simply the level of debt that is the problem, it is the level of debt in the context of the implicit liabilities (in terms of health and pensions) which such population ageing represents, and the reduced growth outlook that having declining and ageing populations represents. Europe’s leaders are essentially in denial on the extent of this problem, and are putting all their eggs in the “structural reforms to raise trend growth” basket.

 

[ekrem]

Maturity of Greek bonds in €

Spanish bonds

Italian bonds

 

[PeteEU]

Interesting graphs ekrem, explains a lot.

 

[PeteEU]

I thought this was excellent.

EconoMonitor : Don't Shoot the Messenger » Last Days of Pompeii?

A small blip.

Secondly there is the problem of population ageing. The figures below show the transformation in Italy’s population pyramid between 1970 and 2030. In many ways Italy’s demography was at the most favourable point for economic growth (supply side) around 1990 (third figure top row) since the proportion of the total population in the working age group was at near its maximum, and the median age of the workforce was still relatively low. The point to get is that it isn’t simply the level of debt that is the problem, it is the level of debt in the context of the implicit liabilities (in terms of health and pensions) which such population ageing represents, and the reduced growth outlook that having declining and ageing populations represents. Europe’s leaders are essentially in denial on the extent of this problem, and are putting all their eggs in the “structural reforms to raise trend growth” basket.

Yea yea I have seen that before and while I dont dispute the fact that Italy's population is getting older (all western industrialised nations are getting older), I do have serious issues with not only the people behind such reports but those that are promoting them. They more than often have a political agenda that would imply a gutting of the wealth fare state and a return to "the good old days" of the early industrial revolution with mass poverty, slave/child labour and so on.

It is all and well pointing out an issue like ageing populations, but using partisan debunked ideas of getting rid of universal healthcare, and the wealth fare state as a whole, is nothing but moronic.

As populations get older, things change. People work longer because they can or want or are forced too.. that is life. Also these demographic changes, the big evil used by especially the right to promote a political stance, are all based on the one fact that nothing changes in society from the status quo, and how realistic is that? It is the same bullshit with "muslim birth rates and the taking over of Europe by muslims".

But changing our societies in the drastic ways that some on the right want just because they hate the idea of UHC and helping people, is simply not going to happen.. it would mean a dramatic cut in living standards that would cause revolutions and wars. Those advocating massive changes are deluding themselves far more than Europeans who want and believe in the wealth fare state.

 

[Toro]

I thought this was excellent.

EconoMonitor : Don't Shoot the Messenger » Last Days of Pompeii?

A small blip.

Secondly there is the problem of population ageing. The figures below show the transformation in Italy’s population pyramid between 1970 and 2030. In many ways Italy’s demography was at the most favourable point for economic growth (supply side) around 1990 (third figure top row) since the proportion of the total population in the working age group was at near its maximum, and the median age of the workforce was still relatively low. The point to get is that it isn’t simply the level of debt that is the problem, it is the level of debt in the context of the implicit liabilities (in terms of health and pensions) which such population ageing represents, and the reduced growth outlook that having declining and ageing populations represents. Europe’s leaders are essentially in denial on the extent of this problem, and are putting all their eggs in the “structural reforms to raise trend growth” basket.

Yea yea I have seen that before and while I dont dispute the fact that Italy's population is getting older (all western industrialised nations are getting older), I do have serious issues with not only the people behind such reports but those that are promoting them. They more than often have a political agenda that would imply a gutting of the wealth fare state and a return to "the good old days" of the early industrial revolution with mass poverty, slave/child labour and so on.

It is all and well pointing out an issue like ageing populations, but using partisan debunked ideas of getting rid of universal healthcare, and the wealth fare state as a whole, is nothing but moronic.

As populations get older, things change. People work longer because they can or want or are forced too.. that is life. Also these demographic changes, the big evil used by especially the right to promote a political stance, are all based on the one fact that nothing changes in society from the status quo, and how realistic is that? It is the same bullshit with "muslim birth rates and the taking over of Europe by muslims".

But changing our societies in the drastic ways that some on the right want just because they hate the idea of UHC and helping people, is simply not going to happen.. it would mean a dramatic cut in living standards that would cause revolutions and wars. Those advocating massive changes are deluding themselves far more than Europeans who want and believe in the wealth fare state.

And here we are, the evil right-wing Anglo-American conspiracy between the media, ratings agencies and the banks who have a political and economic agenda to make Europe fail, pushing Italian yields above 7%. Yes, yes, it's all very clear now.



Outstanding.

 

[Toro]

Maturity of Greek bonds in €

Spanish bonds

Italian bonds

Spain and Italy have €400 billion of debt to refinance next year.

Should be fun!

 

[KissMy]

Several good articles today.

79% of Germans oppose the issuance of Eurobonds. Hence, there will be no Eurobonds.

Poll: Germans strongly against eurobonds - BusinessWeek

Per ekrem's point, the PIIGS have become uncompetitive because wages have risen too much.

Here's The REAL Reason Germany Doesn't Want The ECB To Print Money

Egan Jones cuts Italy's bond ratings to BB. That is junk.

Egan Jones Downgrades Italy From BB+ To BB, Projects 157% Debt/GDP By 2014 | ZeroHedge

You know - when they bailed out everything over here that 93% of us opposed it & only 2% supported it, yet they still did it anyway. The Germans are in the same boat. Will they let the Euro fail? I have been believing that they might, but now think the leaders will take the world all the way to the edge of the cliff & let 1 or 2 banks & possibly a small country fail so the population gets a clue before they bail the whole thing out. So far there have been at least 2 banking failures due to the 50% Greece write-down. It just took a massive global coordinated Central Bank liquidity injection just to prevent massive bank failures before the December 9th Euro meeting that will determine the fate of the Euro & Global Economy.

 

[ekrem]

Spain and Italy have €400 billion of debt to refinance next year.

Should be fun!

And Spain and Italy make 29% of the EU-contribution to the EFSF
European Financial Stability Facility - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This means, that if a €-country has to be bailed-out, the financial strains for Italy/Spain will increase besides the debt-refinancing in 2012 as they've a guaranteed contribution to the EFSF.

 

[Trajan]

this is such bullshit. sorry but I am sick to death of a) this market rah rah crap, becasue b) we have just strung out the tragedy for a few more days on our dime too apparently.....

By JON HILSENRATH, WILLIAM LAUNDER and JEFFREY SPARSHOTT

WASHINGTON — The world's major central banks launched a joint action to provide cheap, emergency U.S. dollar loans to banks in Europe and elsewhere, a sign of growing alarm among policy makers about stresses in Europe and in the global financial system.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...9960192509068.html?mod=WSJ_Home_largeHeadline

unreal, we are so frucked ourselves, why yes lets just lend a sinking ship money at the family rate while we soak or deny small business here...wonderful.

oh and if they try the IMF end run,( the ECB prints money, gives it to the IMF who then lend/gives it to the nations who don't have the discipline/where with all, nor the productivity to pay it back, see- down a black hole/money pit). where in we, and the non European members of the IMF would be on the hook for the lions share share of that cash, congress, every last one of them should be taken out and shot. seriously, that would be the sell out of all sell outs.

This reinforcing failure has got to stop.

Its amazing to me the number of schizo sheep that inhabit wall st and the markets, a run up of 400 after another useless headline for- " hey we got a plan", ' plan', to be followed by a drop of 400 over 2 days when once again this 'plan' falls apart and only the real insiders, sitting in the middle make money only. nice.

 

[Trajan]

Several good articles today.

79% of Germans oppose the issuance of Eurobonds. Hence, there will be no Eurobonds.

Poll: Germans strongly against eurobonds - BusinessWeek

Per ekrem's point, the PIIGS have become uncompetitive because wages have risen too much.

Here's The REAL Reason Germany Doesn't Want The ECB To Print Money

Egan Jones cuts Italy's bond ratings to BB. That is junk.

Egan Jones Downgrades Italy From BB+ To BB, Projects 157% Debt/GDP By 2014 | ZeroHedge

You know - when they bailed out everything over here that 93% of us opposed it & only 2% supported it, yet they still did it anyway. The Germans are in the same boat. Will they let the Euro fail? I have been believing that they might, but now think the leaders will take the world all the way to the edge of the cliff & let 1 or 2 banks & possibly a small country fail so the population gets a clue before they bail the whole thing out. So far there have been at least 2 banking failures due to the 50% Greece write-down. It just took a massive global coordinated Central Bank liquidity injection just to prevent massive bank failures before the December 9th Euro meeting that will determine the fate of the Euro & Global Economy.

in others words you buy the bears sterns/ lehman bros. scenario?

maybe but, when the 'Lehman' happens they could easily lose control.

 

[Trajan]

I thought this was excellent.

EconoMonitor : Don't Shoot the Messenger » Last Days of Pompeii?

A small blip.

Secondly there is the problem of population ageing. The figures below show the transformation in Italy’s population pyramid between 1970 and 2030. In many ways Italy’s demography was at the most favourable point for economic growth (supply side) around 1990 (third figure top row) since the proportion of the total population in the working age group was at near its maximum, and the median age of the workforce was still relatively low. The point to get is that it isn’t simply the level of debt that is the problem, it is the level of debt in the context of the implicit liabilities (in terms of health and pensions) which such population ageing represents, and the reduced growth outlook that having declining and ageing populations represents. Europe’s leaders are essentially in denial on the extent of this problem, and are putting all their eggs in the “structural reforms to raise trend growth” basket.

no offense, but Mark Steyn has been all over this for years.

 

[Toro]

this is such bullshit. sorry but I am sick to death of a) this market rah rah crap, becasue b) we have just strung out the tragedy for a few more days on our dime too apparently.....

By JON HILSENRATH, WILLIAM LAUNDER and JEFFREY SPARSHOTT

WASHINGTON — The world's major central banks launched a joint action to provide cheap, emergency U.S. dollar loans to banks in Europe and elsewhere, a sign of growing alarm among policy makers about stresses in Europe and in the global financial system.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...9960192509068.html?mod=WSJ_Home_largeHeadline

unreal, we are so frucked ourselves, why yes lets just lend a sinking ship money at the family rate while we soak or deny small business here...wonderful.

oh and if they try the IMF end run,( the ECB prints money, gives it to the IMF who then lend/gives it to the nations who don't have the discipline/where with all, nor the productivity to pay it back, see- down a black hole/money pit). where in we, and the non European members of the IMF would be on the hook for the lions share share of that cash, congress, every last one of them should be taken out and shot. seriously, that would be the sell out of all sell outs.

This reinforcing failure has got to stop.

Its amazing to me the number of schizo sheep that inhabit wall st and the markets, a run up of 400 after another useless headline for- " hey we got a plan", ' plan', to be followed by a drop of 400 over 2 days when once again this 'plan' falls apart and only the real insiders, sitting in the middle make money only. nice.

I'm happier than a pig in shit. (Yes I'm aware of the analogy.) I had been buying gold and silver all week, and made a big buy yesterday! Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good!

BTW these are just the swap line rates. We will have forgotten all about this in a few weeks time.

 

[Toro]

I thought this was excellent.

EconoMonitor : Don't Shoot the Messenger » Last Days of Pompeii?

A small blip.

Secondly there is the problem of population ageing. The figures below show the transformation in Italy’s population pyramid between 1970 and 2030. In many ways Italy’s demography was at the most favourable point for economic growth (supply side) around 1990 (third figure top row) since the proportion of the total population in the working age group was at near its maximum, and the median age of the workforce was still relatively low. The point to get is that it isn’t simply the level of debt that is the problem, it is the level of debt in the context of the implicit liabilities (in terms of health and pensions) which such population ageing represents, and the reduced growth outlook that having declining and ageing populations represents. Europe’s leaders are essentially in denial on the extent of this problem, and are putting all their eggs in the “structural reforms to raise trend growth” basket.

no offense, but Mark Steyn has been all over this for years.

Were you short this morning? Just curious.

The book Boom Bust and Echo, written 20 years ago, said the same thing. It is interesting nonetheless. (And Steyn rocks!)

 

[KissMy]

Productivity due to innovation can cover for productivity due to population.

 

[Trajan]

I thought this was excellent.

EconoMonitor : Don't Shoot the Messenger » Last Days of Pompeii?

A small blip.

no offense, but Mark Steyn has been all over this for years.

Were you short this morning? Just curious.

The book Boom Bust and Echo, written 20 years ago, said the same thing. It is interesting nonetheless. (And Steyn rocks!)

nope. and yes he does.

 

[spectrumc01]

this is such bullshit. sorry but I am sick to death of a) this market rah rah crap, becasue b) we have just strung out the tragedy for a few more days on our dime too apparently.....

By JON HILSENRATH, WILLIAM LAUNDER and JEFFREY SPARSHOTT

WASHINGTON — The world's major central banks launched a joint action to provide cheap, emergency U.S. dollar loans to banks in Europe and elsewhere, a sign of growing alarm among policy makers about stresses in Europe and in the global financial system.

Central Banks Take Coordinated Action - WSJ.com

unreal, we are so frucked ourselves, why yes lets just lend a sinking ship money at the family rate while we soak or deny small business here...wonderful.

oh and if they try the IMF end run,( the ECB prints money, gives it to the IMF who then lend/gives it to the nations who don't have the discipline/where with all, nor the productivity to pay it back, see- down a black hole/money pit). where in we, and the non European members of the IMF would be on the hook for the lions share share of that cash, congress, every last one of them should be taken out and shot. seriously, that would be the sell out of all sell outs.

This reinforcing failure has got to stop.

Its amazing to me the number of schizo sheep that inhabit wall st and the markets, a run up of 400 after another useless headline for- " hey we got a plan", ' plan', to be followed by a drop of 400 over 2 days when once again this 'plan' falls apart and only the real insiders, sitting in the middle make money only. nice.

Hey, hey, now the markets and Wall street are all for it.
Millionaires and billionaires getting more american tax dollars.
Where is the Tea Party?
OWS is still under attack, are they still wrong?

I share your outrage
Democrats and Republicans were all for the bail out, go figure.

 

[Trajan]

gotta love it...I am seriously, this is not to to start any politics here but really, when is/are these OSW types going to wake up? And in the real world with a REAL Media apparatus doing what the founders thought they would do, everyone would understand this and everyone r/l/c would be pissed off.

7 trillion under the table out of sight in TARP and......cue up the GF music-


* DECEMBER 1, 2011

Wall Street Pushed Federal Reserve for Europe Action

Wall Street executives, in a private meeting with a top Federal Reserve official in late September, recommended a coordinated effort by central banks to remedy the European financial crisis, according to Fed documents received in an open-records request.

The meeting, led by Louis Bacon, founder of hedge fund Moore Capital Management, preceded a joint action Wednesday by the world's major central banks, which banded together to provide liquidity to the markets through cheap U.S. dollar loans.

more at-
Wall Street Pushed Fed on Europe - WSJ.com


so with Cor-zone down for the count, Bernbank IN gov., who IS the new Wall st. Godfather pulling wee timmy and Bernbanks strings? Bacon one of the Heads of the 5 Families oops, I mean members of the Investor Advisory Committee on Financial Markets committee?

 

[Wiseacre]

The Fed already has a lot of toxic debt on it's balance sheet, adding still more debt from Europe seems like a step in the wrong direction. Unless the real truth is that the risks of contagion here is greater than what we're being told, or that we're closer to a global meltdown than we know. A part of me wonders if this is a political move to avoid a recession over there that could migrate over here and influence Obama's re-election chances.

So - we will make loans to them, which doesn't have to be approved by Congress if the Fed does it. Maybe we get paid back someday, all or part of it. Our dollar gets weaker, which means exports go up if we can find any buyers, but prices here also go up for the American consumer. They get to kick the can down the road a little bit longer, but the underlying problems still exist and have not been addressed. Does that about sum it up?

 

[Trajan]

The Fed already has a lot of toxic debt on it's balance sheet, adding still more debt from Europe seems like a step in the wrong direction. Unless the real truth is that the risks of contagion here is greater than what we're being told, or that we're closer to a global meltdown than we know. A part of me wonders if this is a political move to avoid a recession over there that could migrate over here and influence Obama's re-election chances.

So - we will make loans to them, which doesn't have to be approved by Congress if the Fed does it. Maybe we get paid back someday, all or part of it. Our dollar gets weaker, which means exports go up if we can find any buyers, but prices here also go up for the American consumer. They get to kick the can down the road a little bit longer, but the underlying problems still exist and have not been addressed. Does that about sum it up?

recession over there? my man, 'theys be recessed', the media has just not been making much of it and of course due to some cleverly crafted esoteric bullshit, formula they aren't 'officially' recessed...

check this-

this chart tells me 2 other things aside from the naked numbers, 1) they are recessed and 2) you don't need Panzers and a Lutfwaffe to be hated. I suspect Merkel is wrestling with that part of the German consciousness of guilt. And brother, I bet Sarkozy presses that button every chances he gets.

 

[Toro]

Yields have collapsed this week for Spain, France and Italy.

Europe is saved!