BluePhantom
Educator (of liberals)
- Thread starter
- #41
More good news for the President in Ohio. The latest FOXNEWS poll has Obama up by 7, matching or exceeding the prior 2 polls that the OP dismissed as somehow biased.
Foxnews also has Obama up by 5 in Florida, a state that the OP seems, inexplicably, to think that Romney is winning.
Foxnews has Obama up by a whopping 7 in Virginia, a state that one would logically think would be among the first to fall if Obama were significantly weakening from 2008.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama
In the same graphic you showed, while Fox has Obama up plus seven in Virginia, WaPo has him down minus eight? Doesn't this give you some pause for thought here? How could two polls be that far apart and still reflect accuracy? Rasmussen shows Obama down minus 1 in Virginia making it virtually a dead heat. I would bet a good state dinner that Rasmussen is the most accurate for this posting.
Well I suppose it depends on how you look at it. If I was on my old thread I would include all polls, but I am not using that standard anymore because I just don't have the time to crunch the numbers. The problem is that RCP is completely flooded with crap polls right now. PPP, Marist, FoxNews, WaPo...all total junk with horrible histories of accuracy. Go look at the previous thread and you will notice they have constantly been WAY above the baseline.
The only ones on RCP's Virginia capsule I would pay attention to right now are Quinnapiac and Rasmussen which would put the average at roughly Obama +2.5ish. I mean if I was performing a strict statistical analysis I would never look at it that way but I am not so I am granting myself some leeway here.
The main thing I would say is that people are really missing the point of the OP...basically...."just wait, Romney will close, and the polls are giving Obama more padding than is realistic"