Sundance508
Gold Member
- May 24, 2016
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- #41
More White Working-class voters went to the polls in 2012 than was found by exit polls on Election Day. This raises the prospect that Mr. Trump has a larger pool of potential voters than generally believed.
This fact calls into question the prevailing demographic explanation of recent elections, which held thatBarack Obama did very poorly among whites and won only because young and minority voters turned out in record numbers. This story line led Republicans to conclude that they had maximized their support from white voters and needed to reach out to Hispanics to win in 2016.
Those previous conclusions emerged from exit polls released on election night. The new data from the census, voter registration files, polls and the finalized results tells a subtly different story with potential consequences for the 2016 election.
The data implies that Mr. Obama was not as weak among white voters as typically believed. He fared better than his predecessors among white voters outside the South. Demographic shifts weren’t so important: He would have been re-elected even with an electorate as old and white as it was in 2004. Latino voters did not put Mr. Obama over the top, as many argued in the past...in reality it was the fact that so many working class whites stayed home....whites that are now supporting Trump.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/u...ple-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?_r=0
This fact calls into question the prevailing demographic explanation of recent elections, which held thatBarack Obama did very poorly among whites and won only because young and minority voters turned out in record numbers. This story line led Republicans to conclude that they had maximized their support from white voters and needed to reach out to Hispanics to win in 2016.
Those previous conclusions emerged from exit polls released on election night. The new data from the census, voter registration files, polls and the finalized results tells a subtly different story with potential consequences for the 2016 election.
The data implies that Mr. Obama was not as weak among white voters as typically believed. He fared better than his predecessors among white voters outside the South. Demographic shifts weren’t so important: He would have been re-elected even with an electorate as old and white as it was in 2004. Latino voters did not put Mr. Obama over the top, as many argued in the past...in reality it was the fact that so many working class whites stayed home....whites that are now supporting Trump.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/u...ple-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?_r=0