We need an immediate five-week national lockdown to defeat coronavirus in America

I don't disagree with the op in principle. Staggering shutdowns across the nation is not effective because we all travel. So KC is shut down now but residents later travel to an area that wasn't shut down and bring the virus back to KC after the lockdown. Patchwork bandaids will just prolong this.
Having said that until Congress passes laws preventing utilities and landlords from punishing the lower classes who work paycheck to paycheck a national shutdown could be devastating on them. They need to get this legislation done and have the aid prepared to go stat.

Totally agree that a 5-week shutdown would devastate the economy and the people. Who can survive w/o working for 5-weeks? Not many
A middle of the road approach (2 or 3 week shutdown) would reduce infections to an acceptable level and keep the economy afloat.

Humans need food, water, shelter, and clothing to survive. The economy can be redirected to supplying just those needs until the pandemic is defeated. This is a war and you have to do what is necessary to win!
no they can't, dude, you're very much a jim jones koolaid drinker.

no one can touch anything from anyone is what you're saying so getting any supplies would defeat your proposal. you just screwed all of mankind.

You can touch anything you want, as long as you wash your hands before you put them to your face. Coronavirus can only survive on surfaces for a maximum of three days. So no, the distribution of food and supplies will NOT kill people.
I can do that today. you're suggesting something much different. dude, just shut up.

Sorry, I'm not going to "shut up".
you should, you are too stupid for anyone to pay attention to. your response to me was all anyone needs to read. cause it shoots down your OP. quarantine is quarantine. touch nothing. you will kill millions more than your stupid predictions of the virus. you really are stupid.
 
It has been my experience locally that there is an inverse relationship between a person's support for a complete shutdown and the degree to which doing so would affect them personally.

Teachers, for instance, are all for an utter lock down. They are at home right now getting paid to not work. They have nice pers for when they retire and they have free medical benefits. Small business owners are not quite as enthusiastic, as they have none of these things.

It is always easy to demand that others make the sacrifice so you don't have to, and right now it is the public sector doing that to the private.
 
Think about the pain and suffering if you allow the pandemic to continue. There is now HALF measure when dealing with a pandemic. No middle road. You either Fight it with everything you have, or you don't. The economic effects of overwhelming and destroying this U.S. health care system and killing 2 million Americans before the year is out will be just as severe or more severe than the economic effects of a total lock down.

This is a pandemic and has to be dealt with the right measures. Essential business's can continue, but non-essential business's must shut down. Your bottom line is not worth the deaths of 2 million Americans.

Think of the pain and suffering from a 30% unemployment rate. Think of the pain and suffering of thousands of business that will no longer exist.

You realize, if you do not shut things down to fight the pandemic, you could still have that situation. Think of the economic impact of the deaths of 2 million Americans and the destruction of the U.S. health care system. That will have ripple effects throughout the economy. Business's will die and you will see massive unemployment.

Where do you get that 2,000,000 number of US deaths from?
We're at 458 today and won't get anywhere near 12,500 from the swine flu in 2009, or the 40,000 to 60,000 deaths every year from the regular flu.
 
I don't disagree with the op in principle. Staggering shutdowns across the nation is not effective because we all travel. So KC is shut down now but residents later travel to an area that wasn't shut down and bring the virus back to KC after the lockdown. Patchwork bandaids will just prolong this.
Having said that until Congress passes laws preventing utilities and landlords from punishing the lower classes who work paycheck to paycheck a national shutdown could be devastating on them. They need to get this legislation done and have the aid prepared to go stat.

Totally agree that a 5-week shutdown would devastate the economy and the people. Who can survive w/o working for 5-weeks? Not many
A middle of the road approach (2 or 3 week shutdown) would reduce infections to an acceptable level and keep the economy afloat.

Humans need food, water, shelter, and clothing to survive. The economy can be redirected to supplying just those needs until the pandemic is defeated. This is a war and you have to do what is necessary to win!

I agree with you to the extent that it is a war, but while COVID-19 is extremely contagious, it is not very deadly.
COVID-19 is not as deadly as the normal flu we see every year, and ignore without even noticing?!
The normal flu season kills 40,000 to 60,000 Americans every year. Burden of Influenza

COVID-19 won't even be as deadly as the swine flu was in 2009, that killed 12,500, under Obama's admin.

Today there are 458 deaths attributed to COVID-19, and that is without any therapies like:

I'm hoping that your pushing for a 5-week economic shutdown isn't politically motivated just to help Sleazy Joe?
naw, it's just stupid.
 
It has been my experience locally that there is an inverse relationship between a person's support for a complete shutdown and the degree to which doing so would affect them personally.

Teachers, for instance, are all for an utter lock down. They are at home right now getting paid to not work. They have nice pers for when they retire and they have free medical benefits. Small business owners are not quite as enthusiastic, as they have none of these things.

It is always easy to demand that others make the sacrifice so you don't have to, and right now it is the public sector doing that to the private.
dude, no one would get supplies. that would kill millions.
 
I don't disagree with the op in principle. Staggering shutdowns across the nation is not effective because we all travel. So KC is shut down now but residents later travel to an area that wasn't shut down and bring the virus back to KC after the lockdown. Patchwork bandaids will just prolong this.
Having said that until Congress passes laws preventing utilities and landlords from punishing the lower classes who work paycheck to paycheck a national shutdown could be devastating on them. They need to get this legislation done and have the aid prepared to go stat.

Totally agree that a 5-week shutdown would devastate the economy and the people. Who can survive w/o working for 5-weeks? Not many
A middle of the road approach (2 or 3 week shutdown) would reduce infections to an acceptable level and keep the economy afloat.

Humans need food, water, shelter, and clothing to survive. The economy can be redirected to supplying just those needs until the pandemic is defeated. This is a war and you have to do what is necessary to win!

I agree with you to the extent that it is a war, but while COVID-19 is extremely contagious, it is not very deadly.
COVID-19 is not as deadly as the normal flu we see every year, and ignore without even noticing?!
The normal flu season kills 40,000 to 60,000 Americans every year. Burden of Influenza

COVID-19 won't even be as deadly as the swine flu was in 2009, that killed 12,500, under Obama's admin.

Today there are 458 deaths attributed to COVID-19, and that is without any therapies like:

I'm hoping that your pushing for a 5-week economic shutdown isn't politically motivated just to help Sleazy Joe?

How deadly a pathogen is, is determined by the rate of death for THOSE INFECTED!

The Flu has a death rate of about .1% at its highest. The coronavirus has a death rate of 4.4% based on the latest global infection and death numbers.

So this is 44 more times deadly than the seasonal flu!
PLUS THERE IS NO VACCINE!

IF you allow a pathogen to spread that is 44 times more deadly than seasonal flu, with no vaccine available, you are going to kill millions of people around the world. Lockdown is the response to this problem.

In 2009 with H1N1, there was a vaccine. I know because I received it.
 
I don't disagree with the op in principle. Staggering shutdowns across the nation is not effective because we all travel. So KC is shut down now but residents later travel to an area that wasn't shut down and bring the virus back to KC after the lockdown. Patchwork bandaids will just prolong this.
Having said that until Congress passes laws preventing utilities and landlords from punishing the lower classes who work paycheck to paycheck a national shutdown could be devastating on them. They need to get this legislation done and have the aid prepared to go stat.

Totally agree that a 5-week shutdown would devastate the economy and the people. Who can survive w/o working for 5-weeks? Not many
A middle of the road approach (2 or 3 week shutdown) would reduce infections to an acceptable level and keep the economy afloat.

Humans need food, water, shelter, and clothing to survive. The economy can be redirected to supplying just those needs until the pandemic is defeated. This is a war and you have to do what is necessary to win!

I agree with you to the extent that it is a war, but while COVID-19 is extremely contagious, it is not very deadly.
COVID-19 is not as deadly as the normal flu we see every year, and ignore without even noticing?!
The normal flu season kills 40,000 to 60,000 Americans every year. Burden of Influenza

COVID-19 won't even be as deadly as the swine flu was in 2009, that killed 12,500, under Obama's admin.

Today there are 458 deaths attributed to COVID-19, and that is without any therapies like:

I'm hoping that your pushing for a 5-week economic shutdown isn't politically motivated just to help Sleazy Joe?

How deadly a pathogen is, is determined by the rate of death for THOSE INFECTED!

The Flu has a death rate of about .1% at its highest. The coronavirus has a death rate of 4.4% based on the latest global infection and death numbers.

So this is 44 more times deadly than the seasonal flu!
PLUS THERE IS NO VACCINE!

IF you allow a pathogen to spread that is 44 times more deadly than seasonal flu, with no vaccine available, you are going to kill millions of people around the world. Lockdown is the response to this problem.

In 2009 with H1N1, there was a vaccine. I know because I received it.
oh for fk sake, shut the fk up
 
I don't disagree with the op in principle. Staggering shutdowns across the nation is not effective because we all travel. So KC is shut down now but residents later travel to an area that wasn't shut down and bring the virus back to KC after the lockdown. Patchwork bandaids will just prolong this.
Having said that until Congress passes laws preventing utilities and landlords from punishing the lower classes who work paycheck to paycheck a national shutdown could be devastating on them. They need to get this legislation done and have the aid prepared to go stat.

Totally agree that a 5-week shutdown would devastate the economy and the people. Who can survive w/o working for 5-weeks? Not many
A middle of the road approach (2 or 3 week shutdown) would reduce infections to an acceptable level and keep the economy afloat.

Humans need food, water, shelter, and clothing to survive. The economy can be redirected to supplying just those needs until the pandemic is defeated. This is a war and you have to do what is necessary to win!

I agree with you to the extent that it is a war, but while COVID-19 is extremely contagious, it is not very deadly.
COVID-19 is not as deadly as the normal flu we see every year, and ignore without even noticing?!
The normal flu season kills 40,000 to 60,000 Americans every year. Burden of Influenza

COVID-19 won't even be as deadly as the swine flu was in 2009, that killed 12,500, under Obama's admin.

Today there are 458 deaths attributed to COVID-19, and that is without any therapies like:

I'm hoping that your pushing for a 5-week economic shutdown isn't politically motivated just to help Sleazy Joe?

I'd like to clarify that it is a shutdown of non-essential services, not and economic shutdown. There are lots of business's that a making tons of money with this situation like Amazon, Giant, Publix, UPS, etc. Plus car companies are now being converted to making medical supplies for hospitals. Its a War economy like in World War II, where lots of things shut down in order to support the war effort.
 
I don't disagree with the op in principle. Staggering shutdowns across the nation is not effective because we all travel. So KC is shut down now but residents later travel to an area that wasn't shut down and bring the virus back to KC after the lockdown. Patchwork bandaids will just prolong this.
Having said that until Congress passes laws preventing utilities and landlords from punishing the lower classes who work paycheck to paycheck a national shutdown could be devastating on them. They need to get this legislation done and have the aid prepared to go stat.

Totally agree that a 5-week shutdown would devastate the economy and the people. Who can survive w/o working for 5-weeks? Not many
A middle of the road approach (2 or 3 week shutdown) would reduce infections to an acceptable level and keep the economy afloat.

Humans need food, water, shelter, and clothing to survive. The economy can be redirected to supplying just those needs until the pandemic is defeated. This is a war and you have to do what is necessary to win!

I agree with you to the extent that it is a war, but while COVID-19 is extremely contagious, it is not very deadly.
COVID-19 is not as deadly as the normal flu we see every year, and ignore without even noticing?!
The normal flu season kills 40,000 to 60,000 Americans every year. Burden of Influenza

COVID-19 won't even be as deadly as the swine flu was in 2009, that killed 12,500, under Obama's admin.

Today there are 458 deaths attributed to COVID-19, and that is without any therapies like:

I'm hoping that your pushing for a 5-week economic shutdown isn't politically motivated just to help Sleazy Joe?

How deadly a pathogen is, is determined by the rate of death for THOSE INFECTED!

The Flu has a death rate of about .1% at its highest. The coronavirus has a death rate of 4.4% based on the latest global infection and death numbers.

So this is 44 more times deadly than the seasonal flu!
PLUS THERE IS NO VACCINE!

IF you allow a pathogen to spread that is 44 times more deadly than seasonal flu, with no vaccine available, you are going to kill millions of people around the world. Lockdown is the response to this problem.

In 2009 with H1N1, there was a vaccine. I know because I received it.
oh for fk sake, shut the fk up

Sorry, not going to.
 
Not every states is being effected with high numbers of people needing medical treatment for COVID-19. So why would you shut down the economies of states that are not effected? People have been educated and now know they need to stay home if they are sick and practice social distancing especially people with underlying conditions and the elderly. If you want to shut down travel I suggest starting with shutting down people's ability to travel outside of states that have high#'s of people infected like NY and CA.
 
World
We need an immediate five-week national lockdown to defeat coronavirus in America
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Opinion contributor
USA TODAY OpinionMarch 21, 2020, 11:30 AM EDT

I am an MIT-trained physicist and complexity scientist who studies pandemics. I have warned about global pandemics due to increasing travel for 15 years. I recommended community based monitoring of symptoms to stop Ebola in West Africa in 2014, and it worked. The fastest and even the only way to contain COVID-19 in the United States is a five-week national lockdown.
Closing schools, bars and movie theaters are good measures, but not enough. Our relaxed approach to social distancing is insufficient to stop the exponential growth of COVID-19. Until Americans consistently adopt strong social distancing recommendations — a lockdown — the disease will continue to spread exponentially.
During a five-week national lockdown, federal, state and local authorities would ensure that all Americans stay home except to obtain food and other essentials, access medical care, or do work essential to the functioning of society. Travel would cease: We would close our borders and airports and prohibit all unnecessary travel across state and county (or town) lines within the United States. The U.S. government would have to provide aid to citizens separated from their sources of income and ensure care for vulnerable members of society.
Lockdown would sharply reduce cases
During the first two weeks of a lockdown, infected individuals will either recover from mild cases of COVID-19 at home or seek medical attention for the 14% of cases that are severe. During the third, fourth and fifth weeks, any newly infected family or cohabitants of infected individuals will recover or seek medical attention and their isolation will prevent further spreading. By the end of the lockdown, the number of infections will be a small fraction of what they are now.

The lockdown will give us time to dramatically scale up our supply of COVID-19 test kits and capacity to process them. If we reduce the number of infections using the lockdown and start a massive testing regime in the United States, we can control COVID-19 after five weeks without such extreme social distancing measures. Isolating sick individuals and their immediate contacts will be enough.

The human and economic costs of delaying this lockdown will be staggering. The COVID-19 outbreak has many more cases now than are visible (tip of the iceberg) and they are growing rapidly. Absent sufficiently effective intervention, new cases will increase 1.3 to 1.5 times each day. We had almost 20,000 cases in the United States on Friday, over 5,800 more cases than the previous day. Without a lockdown, in one week there will be about 200,000. In two weeks: 2,000,000. One in seven cases require hospitalization and 5% require ICU care with ventilators to survive. There aren’t nearly enough ventilators available.

The effectiveness of a five-week lockdown will be dramatic — and also entirely predictable.

We know a U.S. lockdown can work because it worked in China. At the height of its COVID-19 crisis in mid-February, China had locked down an estimated 760 milllion people, approximately half of its population. This policy was so successful that Wuhan is now much safer from coronavirus than New York City or Washington, D.C. The few new COVID-19 cases in China now stem from foreign travelers rather than local transmission, and all are safely quarantined.

We know what we have to do. President Donald Trump and our states' governors and local leaders must act now to save millions of lives.

Yaneer Bar-Yam is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, where he is an expert on pandemics and other complex systems. He is spearheading the effort of over 3,000 volunteers working to stop the outbreak at endcoronavirus.org. Follow him on Twitter: @yaneerbaryam


United States Infections and deaths from Coronavirus as of February 29, 2020
Infections: 68
Deaths: 1

United States Infections and deaths from Coronavirus as of March 22, 2020
Infections: 35,000
Deaths: 458


The exponential rise in infections and deaths in just 3 weeks is incredible. Where will the United States be on April 23, 2020 without the lockdown proposed above?

Well, this is what a Nobel Laureate and Stanford biophysicist has to say about it and it looks like correctly predicted the Chinese evolution of the virus. You know, the guys who know shit from Shinola. I suggest you read the article if you want to be rational.

Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don't support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

 
I don't disagree with the op in principle. Staggering shutdowns across the nation is not effective because we all travel. So KC is shut down now but residents later travel to an area that wasn't shut down and bring the virus back to KC after the lockdown. Patchwork bandaids will just prolong this.
Having said that until Congress passes laws preventing utilities and landlords from punishing the lower classes who work paycheck to paycheck a national shutdown could be devastating on them. They need to get this legislation done and have the aid prepared to go stat.

Totally agree that a 5-week shutdown would devastate the economy and the people. Who can survive w/o working for 5-weeks? Not many
A middle of the road approach (2 or 3 week shutdown) would reduce infections to an acceptable level and keep the economy afloat.

Humans need food, water, shelter, and clothing to survive. The economy can be redirected to supplying just those needs until the pandemic is defeated. This is a war and you have to do what is necessary to win!

I agree with you to the extent that it is a war, but while COVID-19 is extremely contagious, it is not very deadly.
COVID-19 is not as deadly as the normal flu we see every year, and ignore without even noticing?!
The normal flu season kills 40,000 to 60,000 Americans every year. Burden of Influenza

COVID-19 won't even be as deadly as the swine flu was in 2009, that killed 12,500, under Obama's admin.

Today there are 458 deaths attributed to COVID-19, and that is without any therapies like:

I'm hoping that your pushing for a 5-week economic shutdown isn't politically motivated just to help Sleazy Joe?

How deadly a pathogen is, is determined by the rate of death for THOSE INFECTED!

The Flu has a death rate of about .1% at its highest. The coronavirus has a death rate of 4.4% based on the latest global infection and death numbers.

So this is 44 more times deadly than the seasonal flu!
PLUS THERE IS NO VACCINE!

IF you allow a pathogen to spread that is 44 times more deadly than seasonal flu, with no vaccine available, you are going to kill millions of people around the world. Lockdown is the response to this problem.

In 2009 with H1N1, there was a vaccine. I know because I received it.
1. Agree regular flu has a 0.1% death rate, but COVID-19 has at most a 1.0% death rate, mostly those over 60. But your numbers don't factor in the "social distancing" and "shutdowns" and other measures to mitigate the transmission. So far the US has 458 dead, the warm weather and new medications should slow infections and death rates even more. Two million deaths isn't going to happen.

2. Dr. Fauci testified that the death rate could be considerably less than 1%:
As John McCormack noted last weekend, the omnipresent Dr. Anthony Fauci, longtime director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases, has testified that COVID-19 could be ten times more lethal than influenza. The latter has about a 0.1 percent fatality rate, so that suggests that the COVID-19 rate is about 1 percent. Yet, Dr. Fauci has written (in the New England Journal of Medicine), that “the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” if we assume that “the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases.”

3. As I showed you before, in 2009 you received the vaccine in October or November, AFTER the H1N1 pandemic hit during April-September killing 12,500 Americans.
 
In a perfect world a 5-week shutdown is doable.
However, the US economy needs to run in order to function.
Curing the virus while killing the economy is a net loss.
We're on day-8 of Pence's 15-day crucial period to control COVID-19, get medications approved, and then start getting the economy back to work.
I'm sure that limited work w/o big crowds is a good start.
Then in 5-weeks allow more people back to work.
I could live with the shutdown IF:
THEY ACTUALLY GAVE ADVANCE WARNING a month in advance and gave people a chance to buy up what they need with limits to avoid panic buying.
Instead, they just closed stuff down with no warning.
 
I don't disagree with the op in principle. Staggering shutdowns across the nation is not effective because we all travel. So KC is shut down now but residents later travel to an area that wasn't shut down and bring the virus back to KC after the lockdown. Patchwork bandaids will just prolong this.
Having said that until Congress passes laws preventing utilities and landlords from punishing the lower classes who work paycheck to paycheck a national shutdown could be devastating on them. They need to get this legislation done and have the aid prepared to go stat.

Totally agree that a 5-week shutdown would devastate the economy and the people. Who can survive w/o working for 5-weeks? Not many
A middle of the road approach (2 or 3 week shutdown) would reduce infections to an acceptable level and keep the economy afloat.

Humans need food, water, shelter, and clothing to survive. The economy can be redirected to supplying just those needs until the pandemic is defeated. This is a war and you have to do what is necessary to win!

I agree with you to the extent that it is a war, but while COVID-19 is extremely contagious, it is not very deadly.
COVID-19 is not as deadly as the normal flu we see every year, and ignore without even noticing?!
The normal flu season kills 40,000 to 60,000 Americans every year. Burden of Influenza

COVID-19 won't even be as deadly as the swine flu was in 2009, that killed 12,500, under Obama's admin.

Today there are 458 deaths attributed to COVID-19, and that is without any therapies like:

I'm hoping that your pushing for a 5-week economic shutdown isn't politically motivated just to help Sleazy Joe?

I'd like to clarify that it is a shutdown of non-essential services, not and economic shutdown. There are lots of business's that a making tons of money with this situation like Amazon, Giant, Publix, UPS, etc. Plus car companies are now being converted to making medical supplies for hospitals. Its a War economy like in World War II, where lots of things shut down in order to support the war effort.

A "partial shutdown" makes a lot more sense than the OP title of a "5-week national lock-down".
IMHO after the 2 or 3 week current "partial shutdown" most people should be allowed to return to work except:
1. Movies, cruise lines, sports venues, eat in restaurants, church services, all entertainment, social and recreational gatherings
2. I'm torn if schools should be allowed to open, kids need to keep their studies up, but maybe not in classrooms, maybe more online or via mail or email or FB?
3. I'm not thinking of any more?!

That would allow about 90% - 95% of the US economy to get back to work.
 
World
We need an immediate five-week national lockdown to defeat coronavirus in America
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Opinion contributor
USA TODAY OpinionMarch 21, 2020, 11:30 AM EDT

I am an MIT-trained physicist and complexity scientist who studies pandemics. I have warned about global pandemics due to increasing travel for 15 years. I recommended community based monitoring of symptoms to stop Ebola in West Africa in 2014, and it worked. The fastest and even the only way to contain COVID-19 in the United States is a five-week national lockdown.
Closing schools, bars and movie theaters are good measures, but not enough. Our relaxed approach to social distancing is insufficient to stop the exponential growth of COVID-19. Until Americans consistently adopt strong social distancing recommendations — a lockdown — the disease will continue to spread exponentially.
During a five-week national lockdown, federal, state and local authorities would ensure that all Americans stay home except to obtain food and other essentials, access medical care, or do work essential to the functioning of society. Travel would cease: We would close our borders and airports and prohibit all unnecessary travel across state and county (or town) lines within the United States. The U.S. government would have to provide aid to citizens separated from their sources of income and ensure care for vulnerable members of society.
Lockdown would sharply reduce cases
During the first two weeks of a lockdown, infected individuals will either recover from mild cases of COVID-19 at home or seek medical attention for the 14% of cases that are severe. During the third, fourth and fifth weeks, any newly infected family or cohabitants of infected individuals will recover or seek medical attention and their isolation will prevent further spreading. By the end of the lockdown, the number of infections will be a small fraction of what they are now.

The lockdown will give us time to dramatically scale up our supply of COVID-19 test kits and capacity to process them. If we reduce the number of infections using the lockdown and start a massive testing regime in the United States, we can control COVID-19 after five weeks without such extreme social distancing measures. Isolating sick individuals and their immediate contacts will be enough.

The human and economic costs of delaying this lockdown will be staggering. The COVID-19 outbreak has many more cases now than are visible (tip of the iceberg) and they are growing rapidly. Absent sufficiently effective intervention, new cases will increase 1.3 to 1.5 times each day. We had almost 20,000 cases in the United States on Friday, over 5,800 more cases than the previous day. Without a lockdown, in one week there will be about 200,000. In two weeks: 2,000,000. One in seven cases require hospitalization and 5% require ICU care with ventilators to survive. There aren’t nearly enough ventilators available.

The effectiveness of a five-week lockdown will be dramatic — and also entirely predictable.

We know a U.S. lockdown can work because it worked in China. At the height of its COVID-19 crisis in mid-February, China had locked down an estimated 760 milllion people, approximately half of its population. This policy was so successful that Wuhan is now much safer from coronavirus than New York City or Washington, D.C. The few new COVID-19 cases in China now stem from foreign travelers rather than local transmission, and all are safely quarantined.

We know what we have to do. President Donald Trump and our states' governors and local leaders must act now to save millions of lives.

Yaneer Bar-Yam is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, where he is an expert on pandemics and other complex systems. He is spearheading the effort of over 3,000 volunteers working to stop the outbreak at endcoronavirus.org. Follow him on Twitter: @yaneerbaryam


United States Infections and deaths from Coronavirus as of February 29, 2020
Infections: 68
Deaths: 1

United States Infections and deaths from Coronavirus as of March 22, 2020
Infections: 35,000
Deaths: 458


The exponential rise in infections and deaths in just 3 weeks is incredible. Where will the United States be on April 23, 2020 without the lockdown proposed above?
Thanks for all you do, U2Edge, to fight viruses, and for furnishing information I couldn't find for what reason, I do not know. Could you send me your info link that shows the huge increase not only in infections, but also known deaths. Thanks.
 
It wouldn't stop this anyhow. It would buy time and that's pretty much it.

That's what these shutdowns are doing now, buying time for the medical system to get fortified, more beds added, ventilators built, drug regimens tested, personnel added if possible. This is a prep phase and intended to buffer the medical system which will get utterly buried if this isn't done, by all accounts.

So, we have to take measures to slow it, but we cannot simply shut the economy down completely and, even if we did, as soon as we started circulating again, this would pop up again.

Few people, if any, are saying even now that these shutdowns will stop people from getting this. It's likely only slowing the rate of infection, not the ultimate total, as we have no vaccine to prevent infection.

2 ways out

1. Vaccine - 18 months out, more or less. We cannot simply hunker down for 18 months with no economic activity. period.
2. herd immunity. we won't get that until people get it and recover.

and, hopefully, we'll start seeing some drug regimens that will help in some cases during this period as well.

and still others think this will peak and start to burn off on its own. watch the logarithmic scales on the totals sites. they'll tell you if the RATE is increasing. That's really the metric we need to be watching. It's going to continue to spread, numbers will grow, it's the rate that will peak first. unfortunately, our data sucks as we've just started mass testing, so that metric is not solid right now in the US either, which is likely why Fauci and others are saying it will be several weeks before we know much, as we're still establishing baseline data....
 

After 4 years of multi-disciplinary research funded by Israel’s Ministry of Science and Technology in cooperation with Israel’s Ministry of Agriculture, MIGAL has achieved a scientific breakthrough that will lead to the rapid creation of a vaccine against Coronavirus. This possibility was identified as a by-product of MIGAL’s development of a vaccine against IBV (Infectious Bronchitis Virus), a disease affecting poultry, whose effectiveness has been proven in pre-clinical trials carried out at the Volcani Institute. MIGAL has now made required genetic adjustments to adapt the vaccine to COVID-19, the human strain of coronavirus, and is working to achieve the safety approvals that will enable in-vivo testing, enable the initiation of production of a vaccine to counter the Coronavirus epidemic currently spreading throughout the world, which so far has claimed 2,666 lives.

From research conducted at MIGAL, it has been found that the poultry coronavirus has high genetic similarity to the human COVID-19, and that it uses the same infection mechanism, a fact that increases the likelihood of achieving an effective human vaccine in a very short period of time.


Israeli scientists are on the cusp of developing the first vaccine against the novel coronavirus, according to Science and Technology Minister Ofir Akunis. If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be ready within a few weeks and available in 90 days, according to a release.
 
I don't disagree with the op in principle. Staggering shutdowns across the nation is not effective because we all travel. So KC is shut down now but residents later travel to an area that wasn't shut down and bring the virus back to KC after the lockdown. Patchwork bandaids will just prolong this.
Having said that until Congress passes laws preventing utilities and landlords from punishing the lower classes who work paycheck to paycheck a national shutdown could be devastating on them. They need to get this legislation done and have the aid prepared to go stat.

Totally agree that a 5-week shutdown would devastate the economy and the people. Who can survive w/o working for 5-weeks? Not many
A middle of the road approach (2 or 3 week shutdown) would reduce infections to an acceptable level and keep the economy afloat.

Humans need food, water, shelter, and clothing to survive. The economy can be redirected to supplying just those needs until the pandemic is defeated. This is a war and you have to do what is necessary to win!

I agree with you to the extent that it is a war, but while COVID-19 is extremely contagious, it is not very deadly.
COVID-19 is not as deadly as the normal flu we see every year, and ignore without even noticing?!
The normal flu season kills 40,000 to 60,000 Americans every year. Burden of Influenza

COVID-19 won't even be as deadly as the swine flu was in 2009, that killed 12,500, under Obama's admin.

Today there are 458 deaths attributed to COVID-19, and that is without any therapies like:

I'm hoping that your pushing for a 5-week economic shutdown isn't politically motivated just to help Sleazy Joe?

I'd like to clarify that it is a shutdown of non-essential services, not and economic shutdown. There are lots of business's that a making tons of money with this situation like Amazon, Giant, Publix, UPS, etc. Plus car companies are now being converted to making medical supplies for hospitals. Its a War economy like in World War II, where lots of things shut down in order to support the war effort.

A "partial shutdown" makes a lot more sense than the OP title of a "5-week national lock-down".
IMHO after the 2 or 3 week current "partial shutdown" most people should be allowed to return to work except:
1. Movies, cruise lines, sports venues, eat in restaurants, church services, all entertainment, social and recreational gatherings
2. I'm torn if schools should be allowed to open, kids need to keep their studies up, but maybe not in classrooms, maybe more online or via mail or email or FB?
3. I'm not thinking of any more?!

That would allow about 90% - 95% of the US economy to get back to work.
KYZR, our church held a Facebook service last week. It was our first one, and we had sound issues, then picture issues, then people requesting help with their computers because they are older Americans and are unacquainted with cutting edge processes online. Next week, it will be all better, because the computer helpers will realize how older people may not have the ability to deal with how tos
 

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