What would happen if a POTUS election was held TODAY?

[edward37]

I think the R's should have gone with Jeb. I know he's another Bush, but he would have been a lot better than this disaster in the WH now.

And Jeb was said to be the smart one

 

[Harry Dresden]

I think if the primaries are held today then it would change. if the election was held probably nothing would change. Just look at the Senate gains for the GOP. I think that screams that nothing has really changed other than in the eyes of political junkies.

With 22 repub senators up for 2020 election we can wait till then to take over senate too

yea thats what we need ed...one party rule....you havent learned much in your 80 years....one party rule never works our well....

Naaa Not one party rule Harry but just keep em in the back of the bus so we can straighten America out Then we'll let em off the bus so they can screw up America again

democrats fuck up too ed....i lived in California,i watched the far left fuck that state up....and no Arnie did not fuck the state up, their piece of shit legislature did most of the work....

 

[Thinker101]

So if the election were held today or this week. Would Hillary cheat more or cheat less?

You know, moron, after two years, you should give up that Hillary CRUTCH.....

Of Donny and Hillary WHO is facing a shit storm of investigations and staff indictments?

You'd think Hillary would give up on that CRUTCH....evidently not though.

 

[edward37]

So if the election were held today or this week. Would Hillary cheat more or cheat less?

You know, moron, after two years, you should give up that Hillary CRUTCH.....

Of Donny and Hillary WHO is facing a shit storm of investigations and staff indictments?

You'd think Hillary would give up on that CRUTCH....evidently not though.

crutch? 15 years of getting up her ass and you found nothing ,,,and it cost millions ,,, and this crooked POS in our WH slides"??

 

[XponentialChaos]

Interesting question. I looked into it with the data from the 2018 election.

First of all, I know this is not a full-proof way to look at this data. People who vote in midterms aren't necessarily going to vote in the presidential election and vice-versa. But based on how fired up both sides were going into the midterms (the left hating Trump, and the right hating the left for blocking Kavanaugh), I think it's at least a reasonable place to start looking at what to expect from both tribes if there was another election today. I say tribes because I'm working under the assumption that this is a generic Democrat who receives support where one would expect and both sides stick to their respective sides.

We know that Republicans expanded their lead in the Senate while Democrats took big gains in the House. The question is how this would translate to results in the electoral college. I looked at Senate vote outcomes and popular vote outcomes for each state/district. It's important to note that this is based on actual data that recently came in.

Based on the results in the 2018 election, I predict:

- Arizona (11) flips to the Democrats. Democrats won the Senate race and had slightly move total votes in the House races. They did, however, lose to the incumbent Republican governor. Trump won the primary vote in 2016 and Trump narrowly won the 2016 general election by a little more than 3 percentage points.

- Iowa (6) flips to the Democrats. I'm going out on a limb with this one, but hear me out. Iowa just flipped 2 districts blue. Three of their four districts are now blue and Democrats also had more House votes in 2018 than Republican. Either a new Republican steps in Iowa for 2020 or I think Iowa turns blue. This also supports the poll that OP brought up.

- Maine (1) flips to the Democrats. This state has 4 total electoral college votes but they split them. In 2016, 3 votes went D and 1 vote for R. They just flipped one of their districts blue, meaning that both are blue now. I think Democrats take all 4 the next time around.

- Michigan (16) flips to the Democrats. It was a surprise of the 2016 election that this flipped red. Well now we have some more data in the 2018 election. Democrats won the Senate race. Democrats won the Governor race. Democrats flipped 2 districts blue. Democrats out-voted Republicans for House members by about 8 points. Michigan BARELY went to Trump in 2016.

- Pennsylvania (20) flips to the Democrats. Democrats won their Senate race, their Governor race, had a net gain of 3 flipped districts, and out-voted Republicans in the House. Trump won this state in 2016 by less than 1%. This one is coming back to blue.

- Wisconsin (10) flips to the Democrats. Along with Michigan, this one was a big surprise for the Republicans. Trump won this state in the 2016 election by less than 1%. Recent data suggests that it's coming back to blue. Democrats won their Senate race, Governor race, and out-voted Republicans for the House representatives.


That puts me at a gain of 64 in the electoral college. Democrats win 296 to 242.

 

[sparky]

a potus election today , tommorrow, or ten years from now will only produce the same dismal offerings of elitist parrots....~S~

 

[Crepitus]

I think if the primaries are held today then it would change. if the election was held probably nothing would change. Just look at the Senate gains for the GOP. I think that screams that nothing has really changed other than in the eyes of political junkies.

The Senate gains we're pathetically weak considering the democrats we're defending 2-3 times as many seats as the rethuglicans.

 

[nat4900]

The Senate gains we're pathetically weak considering the democrats we're defending 2-3 times as many seats as the rethuglicans.

....and, let me add, the senate races in FL and TX were pretty tight...Signs of things to soon come.....

I wonder which GOP senator in this upcoming year will be the FIRST to dump-trump.

 

[Thinker101]

So if the election were held today or this week. Would Hillary cheat more or cheat less?

You know, moron, after two years, you should give up that Hillary CRUTCH.....

Of Donny and Hillary WHO is facing a shit storm of investigations and staff indictments?

You'd think Hillary would give up on that CRUTCH....evidently not though.

crutch? 15 years of getting up her ass and you found nothing ,,,and it cost millions ,,, and this crooked POS in our WH slides"??

You'll have to pull your head out before anyone can get up there...dumbass.

 

[tycho1572]

People are starting to see through the BS from democrats and the leftist media.

I can see Trump easily winning a second term.

 

[nat4900]

People are starting to see through the BS from democrats and the leftist media.

I can see Trump easily winning a second term.

LOL

Partial government shutdown: Trump's approval rating drops to .
How Popular Is Donald Trump? | FiveThirtyEight

Presidential Approval Ratings -- Donald Trump - Gallup News

 

[busybee01]

Its rather interesting that some republicans are finally waking up.....A recent poll of Iowa republicans showed that TWO-THIRDS of them would welcome ANOTHER republican challenger for the 2020 presidential election.......

Bear in mind that the above is PRIOR to the shit-storm that is about to hit this corrupt and inept administration in 2019.

Ultimately, the bottom line for Trump is to run his 2020 campaign with the slogan..."PLEASE VOTE FOR ME TO KEEP ME (and my family) OUT OF PRISON.."

(But Trump will always have his 32% cult followers willing to jump off the cliff with him.......LOL)

The Trump Electoral College advantage is crumbling. Michigan and Pennsylvania are likely back in the Democrat column due to suburban voters and especially suburban women. That puts Democrats at 268 electoral votes.

The swing states are Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa and North Carolina.

When you look at states that could flip, Democrats have a advantage. The 1 electoral vote Trump got in Maine is in trouble due to the state's new tiered voting system. In Arizona, a sizeable number of people split their votes for a Republican Governor and a Democrat in the Senate race. In Texas, a sizeable number of people did the same thing. Vote for a Republican Governor and a Democrat for Senate. In Georgia, Republicans had to resort to every dirty trick in the book to narrowly win the Governor's race. In Kansas, Trump right hand man Kobach lost. The only state that could be reasonably close among the states that Clinton won is New Hampshire.

 

[busybee01]

Its rather interesting that some republicans are finally waking up.....A recent poll of Iowa republicans showed that TWO-THIRDS of them would welcome ANOTHER republican challenger for the 2020 presidential election.......

Bear in mind that the above is PRIOR to the shit-storm that is about to hit this corrupt and inept administration in 2019.

Ultimately, the bottom line for Trump is to run his 2020 campaign with the slogan..."PLEASE VOTE FOR ME TO KEEP ME (and my family) OUT OF PRISON.."

(But Trump will always have his 32% cult followers willing to jump off the cliff with him.......LOL)

A lot of people thought Obama was toast in 2012 after the disastrous 2010 midterms for his party, yet we know how that ended. Two years in politics is a lifetime and public perception is short term. Plenty of things can change.

Trump is the gift that keeps on giving This shutdown will hurt him among more moderate voters and suburban voters especially women are not going to forget.

 

[tycho1572]

People are starting to see through the BS from democrats and the leftist media.

I can see Trump easily winning a second term.

LOL

Partial government shutdown: Trump's approval rating drops to .
How Popular Is Donald Trump? | FiveThirtyEight

Presidential Approval Ratings -- Donald Trump - Gallup News

Those same polls had hillary winning. lol

Watch what happens in 2020.

 

[MarathonMike]

Its rather interesting that some republicans are finally waking up.....A recent poll of Iowa republicans showed that TWO-THIRDS of them would welcome ANOTHER republican challenger for the 2020 presidential election.......

Bear in mind that the above is PRIOR to the shit-storm that is about to hit this corrupt and inept administration in 2019.

Ultimately, the bottom line for Trump is to run his 2020 campaign with the slogan..."PLEASE VOTE FOR ME TO KEEP ME (and my family) OUT OF PRISON.."

(But Trump will always have his 32% cult followers willing to jump off the cliff with him.......LOL)

Hillary would lose again, and the cascade of Liberal tears would be even more delicious.

 

[BluesLegend]

What would happen if a POTUS election was held TODAY?

What if space aliens landed and started mining coal?

 

[nat4900]

Watch what happens in 2020.

This might help your cause.....LOL

 

[tycho1572]

Watch what happens in 2020.

This might help your cause.....LOL

Wtf??

 

[FreeAndClear]

Just look at the Senate gains for the GOP. I think that screams that nothing has really changed other than in the eyes of political junkies.

Partially agree.....HOWEVER, the senate election last month HIGHLY favored the GOP since many more democrats were defending their seat.....

In 2020 the situation is totally reversed, with many GOP senators having to make the very difficult choice as to whether they are republicans or Trumpsters.

Fair enough it’s possible that you are right but here is the issue. Look st Florida. Turnout was high. Almost Presidential election high and they have a Republicans senator and governor. IMO it’s a litmus test that While Trump is a wildcard, those who votes for him in 2016 may still keep their vote. That’s why i don’t think anything changes in the main election and only in the primary


Btw i am not trying to be Debbier downer, i just like having a look at what can happen rather than trying to predict what an electorate would.

 

[FreeAndClear]

People are starting to see through the BS from democrats and the leftist media.

I can see Trump easily winning a second term.

LOL

Partial government shutdown: Trump's approval rating drops to .
How Popular Is Donald Trump? | FiveThirtyEight

Presidential Approval Ratings -- Donald Trump - Gallup News

Those same polls had hillary winning. lol

Watch what happens in 2020.

Understand margin of error is a problem on every forum i see. I can’t wait for unskewed polls 2020!! Edition - more unskewing, more lawn signs!