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I think you are right.In 14 days we will have the results of the Super Tuesday primaries and we will know who will have the lions share of delegates.
Who do you think will have most of the delegates on Wednesday March 2?
Well, Trump is way ahead in South Carolina with the news reporting he could gain 50 delegates there alone. His lead in Nevada is even greater than it is in South Carolina. I would say he will sweep all the primaries.
Trump has analyzed the process and found a 'road to win' strategy and he has employed it successfully.
My question is if the polling is actually reflecting the people who will be going out to vote in a primary. SC is the first bigger state to go to the polls, and we will see if that is the case.
I took a closer look at the WSJ poll and compared it to a new CBS poll that came out today that shows Trump still around 35%.
The CBS poll that is showing Trump still around 35% is based on registered voters, while the WSJ poll that came out yesterday is of Republican primary voters, and that phrase usually means that they voted in the last primary, in 2012. Now in many if not most states, Romney had already locked the nomination and people that went out to vote were basically pro-Romney or pro-Santorum, and the latter fell off after March. That means these kinds of polls of past Republican primary voters is heavily skewed toward the establishment wing of the party and filters out new voters, the latter of which is Trumps strength.
Also a whole bunch of the criticism directed at Trump is long the lines of party loyalty. His past as a moderate centrist, his past positions on some litmus GOP issues, his criticism of George W Bush and his refusal to say he was going to unconditionally support the GOP nominee for quite some time, all these things cost him favorability with the party loyalists who would go out and vote in a primary that Romney had already locked by the time they actually voted.
With the new poll out today, I think the delta with the WSJ poll is now fairly clear. If considering only the voters who are GOP loyalists, Trump is slightly behind Cruz, but if looking at registered voters, Trump is way ahead, reflecting Trumps strong appeal to many in the center.
How many points is Trump ahead of Cruz in SC?I think you are right.In 14 days we will have the results of the Super Tuesday primaries and we will know who will have the lions share of delegates.
Who do you think will have most of the delegates on Wednesday March 2?
Well, Trump is way ahead in South Carolina with the news reporting he could gain 50 delegates there alone. His lead in Nevada is even greater than it is in South Carolina. I would say he will sweep all the primaries.
Trump has analyzed the process and found a 'road to win' strategy and he has employed it successfully.
My question is if the polling is actually reflecting the people who will be going out to vote in a primary. SC is the first bigger state to go to the polls, and we will see if that is the case.
I took a closer look at the WSJ poll and compared it to a new CBS poll that came out today that shows Trump still around 35%.
The CBS poll that is showing Trump still around 35% is based on registered voters, while the WSJ poll that came out yesterday is of Republican primary voters, and that phrase usually means that they voted in the last primary, in 2012. Now in many if not most states, Romney had already locked the nomination and people that went out to vote were basically pro-Romney or pro-Santorum, and the latter fell off after March. That means these kinds of polls of past Republican primary voters is heavily skewed toward the establishment wing of the party and filters out new voters, the latter of which is Trumps strength.
Also a whole bunch of the criticism directed at Trump is long the lines of party loyalty. His past as a moderate centrist, his past positions on some litmus GOP issues, his criticism of George W Bush and his refusal to say he was going to unconditionally support the GOP nominee for quite some time, all these things cost him favorability with the party loyalists who would go out and vote in a primary that Romney had already locked by the time they actually voted.
With the new poll out today, I think the delta with the WSJ poll is now fairly clear. If considering only the voters who are GOP loyalists, Trump is slightly behind Cruz, but if looking at registered voters, Trump is way ahead, reflecting Trumps strong appeal to many in the center.
It could be appeal, or it could be "Trump" is the only name they recognized. All of this is moot however, until we see the South Carolina results, which should give us an indication of the actual level of support Trump has among primary voters. New Hampshire to me is 1) too small 2) to quirky and 3) Cruz didn't really campaign there.
An interview from 2004, and Trump was saying that it seems the economy does better under Democrats than Republicans AND IT SHOULDNT BE THAT WAY.
To take an interview from that long ago and present it as proof of a person today, seems to suggest that you expect people to remain frozen in their ideological positions for an entire life time.
You do know that most people dont do that, right? And most people who do reamin petrified ideologically just are not honest about their thinking or they are some very gullible people.
In an interview with journalist Larry King in 1999, Trump described himself as "very liberal when it comes to health care." He embraced "universal healthcare," which many conservatives see as code for another big government entitlement program.
On the question of abortion, Trump has evolved. In 1999, he described himself as "very pro-choice" on NBC's "Meet the Press."
"I hate the concept of abortion...I hate it. I hate everything it stands for," he explained. "But I just believe in choice".
In his 2000 book, he wrote, " I support a woman's right to choose but I am uncomfortable with the procedures." That language echoed many other pro-choice politicians at the time who expressed reservations about abortion itself but maintained that women should be free to choose to undergo the procedure.
Fast-forward to 2011, and Trump was singing a different tune, though he readily acknowledged his shift. As he was flirting with the idea of a Republican presidential bid in 2012, he told attendees at the Conservative Political Action Conference that he identifies as pro-life, despite embracing the pro-choice cause for decades.
On the issue of legalizing drugs, Trump has also had a change of heart. In 1990,according to the Chicago Tribune, Trump warned that America was "losing badly" in the so-called war on drugs, and he called for a new approach.
"You have to legalize drugs to win that war," he explained. "You have to take the profit away from these drug czars."
Trump suggested the revenue accrued by legalizing and taxing drugs could be redirected into drug education and prevention efforts.
But in an interview on Fox News last month, Trump voiced a far more measured opinion on drug policy when he was asked about states like Colorado that have legalized marijuana for recreational use.
"I don't like what's coming out. I mean if you look, I'm all for medical marijuana," he said. "But what's coming out is some really bad things are happening in Colorado with respect to people...You know, a lot of people were all in favor of it and now all of a sudden they're saying it's having tremendously damaging effects to the mind, to the brain, to everything. So it's a big problem."
The RKBA is one issue that I have to have absolute certainty on. I have no tolerance for political whores who waver on this. Trump may as well have said "Read my lips", because I don't trust him on this issue.On gun control, as well, Trump has steadily tacked to the right.
In his 2000 book, Trump wrote, "I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today's Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72 hours if a potential gun owner has a record."
Both of those positions are anathema to a Republican base that sees the Second Amendment as inviolate.
Now that he's running for president as a Republican, Trump has scorned any and all restrictions on American gun ownership.
During his kickoff speech in June, Trump vowed to "fully support and back up the Second Amendment." He recalled a conversation with a woman who cited a recent jailbreak to explain her change of heart on gun control, saying she now has "a gun on every table."
Sometimes Trump has flip-flopped on his opinion of political figures as well.
In his 2000 book, he described former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush as a "good man" - a "bright, tough, and principled" person and " exactly the kind of political leader this country needs now and will very much need in the future."
Now that Bush is competing against Trump for the GOP nomination, though, Trump has done nothing but trash the former governor.
"He's weak on immigration, he's in favor of Common Core [state education standards]," Trump said of Bush during his June kickoff speech. "How the hell can you vote for this guy?"
Hillary Clinton I think is a terrific woman,” he told Greta Van Susteren. “I am biased because I have known her for years. I live in New York. She lives in New York. I really like her and her husband both a lot.
How many points is Trump ahead of Cruz in SC?I think you are right.Well, Trump is way ahead in South Carolina with the news reporting he could gain 50 delegates there alone. His lead in Nevada is even greater than it is in South Carolina. I would say he will sweep all the primaries.
Trump has analyzed the process and found a 'road to win' strategy and he has employed it successfully.
My question is if the polling is actually reflecting the people who will be going out to vote in a primary. SC is the first bigger state to go to the polls, and we will see if that is the case.
I took a closer look at the WSJ poll and compared it to a new CBS poll that came out today that shows Trump still around 35%.
The CBS poll that is showing Trump still around 35% is based on registered voters, while the WSJ poll that came out yesterday is of Republican primary voters, and that phrase usually means that they voted in the last primary, in 2012. Now in many if not most states, Romney had already locked the nomination and people that went out to vote were basically pro-Romney or pro-Santorum, and the latter fell off after March. That means these kinds of polls of past Republican primary voters is heavily skewed toward the establishment wing of the party and filters out new voters, the latter of which is Trumps strength.
Also a whole bunch of the criticism directed at Trump is long the lines of party loyalty. His past as a moderate centrist, his past positions on some litmus GOP issues, his criticism of George W Bush and his refusal to say he was going to unconditionally support the GOP nominee for quite some time, all these things cost him favorability with the party loyalists who would go out and vote in a primary that Romney had already locked by the time they actually voted.
With the new poll out today, I think the delta with the WSJ poll is now fairly clear. If considering only the voters who are GOP loyalists, Trump is slightly behind Cruz, but if looking at registered voters, Trump is way ahead, reflecting Trumps strong appeal to many in the center.
It could be appeal, or it could be "Trump" is the only name they recognized. All of this is moot however, until we see the South Carolina results, which should give us an indication of the actual level of support Trump has among primary voters. New Hampshire to me is 1) too small 2) to quirky and 3) Cruz didn't really campaign there.
Trump wins SC by 15-20.
Kasich does better than expected. Bush goes home to knit a sweater.
Rubio quits. Carson quits.
70% of the failed candidate's votes goes to TRUMP.
By the end it will be a Trump Karich ticket.
No other election in modern history is more critical for the REPs to win.
There has never in US history been three consecutive DEM terms.
There have been three consecutive REP terms. The first lasting 4 terms.
Cruz vs. Biden
The Democrats under FDR and Truman held the White House for 20 years, which is five straight administrative terms..There has never in US history been three consecutive DEM terms.
There have been three consecutive REP terms. The first lasting 4 terms.
Biden is well into early onset dementia, but then that couldnt be worse than what we had under Obama, so he could get the nomination.Cruz vs. Biden
In 14 days we will have the results of the Super Tuesday primaries and we will know who will have the lions share of delegates.
Who do you think will have most of the delegates on Wednesday March 2?
That is true. I think about half of Trumps 'new voter' support is soft and very mushy.The points are meaningless in these polls until we can figure out if the polls are truly reflecting who is actually going to show up at the voting booths on primary day. To me, Trump support is overstated due to his name recognition.
Trump could win the delegates but the RNC could pull the rug out from under him. Then he would probably run as a third party guy and then Hillary would be madam President.
Arf arf.
How do you imagine Trump having the rug pulled out from under him if he has the delegates to win on the first ballot?Trump could win the delegates but the RNC could pull the rug out from under him. Then he would probably run as a third party guy and then Hillary would be madam President.
That is true. I think about half of Trumps 'new voter' support is soft and very mushy.The points are meaningless in these polls until we can figure out if the polls are truly reflecting who is actually going to show up at the voting booths on primary day. To me, Trump support is overstated due to his name recognition.
In Iowa Trumps mushy supporters did not show up in enough numbers to represent his polling numbers, but in New Hampshire they did.
I think the threat of a snow storm in Iowa kept a lot of Trumps mushy support from bothering to go caucus, which is an hours long process but New Hampshire folks were used to that, so it wasnt a factor.
I think South Carolina is actually going to have nice weather and all of Trumps support will show up, and in Nevada also, which will give Trump two huge wins going into the Super Tuesday primaries.
Which adds up to a Trump sweep and he may be the only dude left standing when the winner take all primaries start in April.
How do you imagine Trump having the rug pulled out from under him if he has the delegates to win on the first ballot?Trump could win the delegates but the RNC could pull the rug out from under him. Then he would probably run as a third party guy and then Hillary would be madam President.
They are locked in for the first vote, which seems to be Establishment proof.
Cruz didn't really campaign in NH and still had a good showing. Still, he has to at least come close in SC to make people start taking him as a serious counter to Trump.
It isn't the same as the Democrats but they do have some super delegates so it depends how many Trump scoops up.How do you imagine Trump having the rug pulled out from under him if he has the delegates to win on the first ballot?Trump could win the delegates but the RNC could pull the rug out from under him. Then he would probably run as a third party guy and then Hillary would be madam President.
They are locked in for the first vote, which seems to be Establishment proof.
Isint it ironic that the *Democratic* party has such an anti-democratic process?How do you imagine Trump having the rug pulled out from under him if he has the delegates to win on the first ballot?Trump could win the delegates but the RNC could pull the rug out from under him. Then he would probably run as a third party guy and then Hillary would be madam President.
They are locked in for the first vote, which seems to be Establishment proof.
I think most people assume the Republicans have the same issue with superdelegates that the Dems do. From what I have read, they do not, with only about 3 per State.
You're right. I stand corrected.The Democrats under FDR and Truman held the White House for 20 years, which is five straight administrative terms..There has never in US history been three consecutive DEM terms.
There have been three consecutive REP terms. The first lasting 4 terms.
Hmm, I dont think that there are enough superdelegates to offset a candidate that has enough delegates to win on the first ballot.It isn't the same as the Democrats but they do have some super delegates so it depends how many Trump scoops up.How do you imagine Trump having the rug pulled out from under him if he has the delegates to win on the first ballot?Trump could win the delegates but the RNC could pull the rug out from under him. Then he would probably run as a third party guy and then Hillary would be madam President.
They are locked in for the first vote, which seems to be Establishment proof.
