2020 Electoral College Map. Jan 2019.

[kyzr]

We do have an issue in Fl, since the SOS is elected by the Gov and he skated in by the skin of his teeth, we have a Republican problem.

I expect another recount, its the only way they can win.

What about the 1 million FL felons that can now vote?
Florida restores voting rights to more than 1 million former felons

 

[JLW]

Wisconsin and Michigan will swing democratic. Florida should be light blue, especially since the passage of the state constitutional amendment to reinstate ex-felons their voting rights. Jury is out how that will play out in the long run. Pennsylvania will most likely go Dem but not by much.

If Trump were to win in 2020, he would pull out a squeaky electoral college win but lose the popular vote by nearly 5 million. Trump will never, ever win the popular vote.

 

[StatesPoll]

We do have an issue in Fl, since the SOS is elected by the Gov and he skated in by the skin of his teeth, we have a Republican problem.

I expect another recount, its the only way they can win.

What about the 1 million FL felons that can now vote?
Florida restores voting rights to more than 1 million former felons

Why letting ex-felons vote probably won’t swing Florida
Why letting ex-felons vote probably won’t swing Florida

 

[StatesPoll]

Wisconsin and Michigan will swing democratic. Florida should be light blue, especially since the passage of the state constitutional amendment to reinstate ex-felons their voting rights. Jury is out how that will play out in the long run. Pennsylvania will most likely go Dem but not by much.

If Trump were to win in 2020, he would pull out a squeaky electoral college win but lose the popular vote by nearly 5 million votes. Trump will never, ever win the popular vote.

Wisconsin and Michigan will swing democratic. Florida should be light blue, especially since the passage of the state constitutional amendment to reinstate ex-felons their voting rights. Jury is out how that will play out in the long run. Pennsylvania will most likely go Dem but not by much.

If Trump were to win in 2020, he would pull out a squeaky electoral college win but lose the popular vote by nearly 5 million. Trump will never, ever win the popular vote.

I repeat one more time.

White Evangelical's vote share(turnout)
Wisconsin
2016 PRES: White Evan vote share 28%
2018 WI Gov: White Evan vote share 16%
Evers(D) barely won by +1.1% margins. even with 12% lower White Evan's vote share & D +8.6% Blue Wave Midterm.

Michigan's gaps between 2016 and 2018 were smaller than Wisconsin but still huge enough to predict 2020.
(2016 Pres: White Evans vote share 27% / 2018 MI Sen: White Evans vote share 19% )

Presidential Year is different with Midterm Year. I guess in 2020 turnouts & support % Might be similar as 2016.

 

[Erinwltr]

We do have an issue in Fl, since the SOS is elected by the Gov and he skated in by the skin of his teeth, we have a Republican problem.

I expect another recount, its the only way they can win.

What about the 1 million FL felons that can now vote?
Florida restores voting rights to more than 1 million former felons

Exactly what it was programmed to repeat whenever someone it hates posts a poll.

Really? Do you have a quote from THIS poster stating that they don't believe in polls?

When certain "news" apparatchiks use "polling data" that was manipulated in the first place, in order to influence public opinion no one should be surprised when the results are flawed and the pollsters lose credibility.

When people post polls that defy the leftist narrative, then all of a sudden the posters become less credible?

That's not quite how credibility works, not that truth or facts ever caused a synapse to function in whatever sphincter regressive marxist pukes use for a "mind".

.

Petey toilet paper on sale for anyone interested in the POTUS GoFundMe Wall initiative.

 

[StatesPoll]

Arizona
1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis
Arizona Senate 2018. 3,717 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=AZ&type=S

Despite of White-Evangelical’s Low turnout (Presidential election 2012 Exit Poll 21% vote share, 2018: 13% share. 8% lower than 2012)

Party ID with leaner:

REP 47% Sinema 95% / McSally 4%
DEM 41% Sinema 10% / McSally 89%
IND 12% Sinema 54% / McSally 37%

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year

in 2020 it might be something like:

Party ID % With Leaner
REP 49% / DEM 40% or lower / IND 11%ish

With Leaner
REP 48.5% DEM 5% / TRUMP 91%
DEM 39% DEM 90% / TRUMP 7%
IND 12.5% DEM 45% / TRUMP 47%

TRUMP: 52.5% / DEM: 42.9%

Ignore Leaner: REP 39.5% / DEM 30% / IND 30.5%

Plus, White IND Voter favors the oppostion party, but it might be different in Presidential Year. FYI TRUMP won 47% among IND in 2016.

I don’t think so it gonna be D +17% Among IND in 2020.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president

Conclusion: at this moment Arizona Likely TRUMP

Rep’s floor 49%ish, Ceiling 55%ish (Presidential Year)