Red Dawn
Senior Member
- Jul 19, 2008
- 3,224
- 454
Yes, that called science, and anyone who went to college and took a statistics class, or has any college level background in math or science understands the concept of probability and representative sampling.
I did a quick calculation, and New York City uses over a billion gallons of water a day. And you know what they do when they want to test the water quality for public safety? They take 100 milliliter samples of the city water. If my arithmetic is correct, that's a sample size of about 0.0000001 of the city's water. And its considered standard garden vareity science that produces good results. Let me ask you, when the doctor wants to give you a blood test, do you demand that he take all 20 liters of your blood just "to be certain"? Or do they draw a small 10 milliliter sample which is considered, in terms of statistical probablity, to be a representative sample of your blood chemistry?
that's great, but how does that correlate with extrapolating not just quality now, but quality over the course of 4.5 billion years?
good effort though
well, not really.
Here's how science works:
In terms of probabalistic theory and statistical validity, science compares apples to apples. Not apples to oranges.
The earth was entirely different 2 billion years ago. The continents weren't even in the same place, the land masses were aggregated into a super continent, and as a result ocean currents, atmospheric currents, and volcanic activity was radically different than it has been in the recent geologic era. The entire biosphere was different two billion years ago, and as a consequence the biologic equilibrium and partitioning of atmospheric and hydrologic CO2 would be nothing like it has been in recent geologic times. Trying to equate the natural variablity of climate in the ancient Cambrian era to the natural variability in the more modern Pliestocne era has some uses, but its largely comparing apples to oranges.
Today's climate is a function, in part, of the recent geologic, hydrologic, and biosphere framework of the earth. It is variation in the climate of the Modern and Pleistocene geolgoic era that informs us of what the natural variation of climate should be within the era that modern humans and the rest of the modern biosphere have existed for the last million years. The natural variation in the climate of the Cambrian era is scientifically interesting, but has relatively little bearing on what we should expect of natural climate variability in recent geologic times.