According to fivethirtyeight’s forecast, the Dems have a better chance of taking the House than...

[Billy000]

...Republicans have of holding on to the senate. It’s a slight 2% difference anyway.

This, of course, still means we can assume republicans will keep the senate, but us liberals can take comfort that the Dems will take the House.

Could this forecast be totally off? Yes. Trump’s election was certainly surprising to mostly everyone. I suppose I can just sleep soundly at least for tonight.

2018 Senate Forecast

If any of you claim 538 has a liberal bias, you need to be punched in the face.

 

[RDD_1210]

Facts do have a liberal bias. Explains why cons hate facts so much.

 

[ColonelAngus]

219-216 Dimms in the house
54-46 RINOS in the Senate

Thats my call.

 

[bendog]

Careful. I think this election is trending towards the Ds in the Senate based on the weekend, but there's no way of really tending which party is getting big Mo in the House. Although, there are reports that gopers in the House are NOT happy with Trump's nativism rant on the caravan these past days.

 

[bendog]

219-216 Dimms in the house
54-46 RINOS in the Senate

Thats my call.

I'm close with that, though I think the dems may do a wee bit better.

 

[Billy000]

Facts do have a liberal bias. Explains why cons hate facts so much.

You got me there.

 

[Billy000]

219-216 Dimms in the house
54-46 RINOS in the Senate

Thats my call.

By the looks of the polling, Dems only stand to lose one seat in the senate which would barely change the repub’s current control margin.

 

[MarcATL]

The only way the polls won't be very accurate, is due to UNDERESTIMATING the amount of NEW VOTERS from the LEFT!

They underestimated the RIGHT on the last go-round.

This time the Left is turning out new voters.

 

[ThunderKiss1965]

...Republicans have of holding on to the senate. It’s a slight 2% difference anyway.

This, of course, still means we can assume republicans will keep the senate, but us liberals can take comfort that the Dems will take the House.

Could this forecast be totally off? Yes. Trump’s election was certainly surprising to mostly everyone. I suppose I can just sleep soundly at least for tonight.

2018 Senate Forecast

If any of you claim 538 has a liberal bias, you need to be punched in the face.

The same group that had Hillary's chance of winning the White House at 71% ?

 

[ThunderKiss1965]

Facts do have a liberal bias. Explains why cons hate facts so much.

Facts don't have a bias you loon.

 

[idb]

I wonder if these polls ever factor in the effect that polls have on voting trends?

 

[Billy000]

...Republicans have of holding on to the senate. It’s a slight 2% difference anyway.

This, of course, still means we can assume republicans will keep the senate, but us liberals can take comfort that the Dems will take the House.

Could this forecast be totally off? Yes. Trump’s election was certainly surprising to mostly everyone. I suppose I can just sleep soundly at least for tonight.

2018 Senate Forecast

If any of you claim 538 has a liberal bias, you need to be punched in the face.

The same group that had Hillary's chance of winning the White House at 71% ?

That upset was based purely on the electoral college. Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million votes. Historically, only a handful of presidential winners lost the popular vote. This time there is no electoral college.

 

[Auld Phart]

...Republicans have of holding on to the senate. It’s a slight 2% difference anyway.

This, of course, still means we can assume republicans will keep the senate, but us liberals can take comfort that the Dems will take the House.

Could this forecast be totally off? Yes. Trump’s election was certainly surprising to mostly everyone. I suppose I can just sleep soundly at least for tonight.

2018 Senate Forecast

If any of you claim 538 has a liberal bias, you need to be punched in the face.

I'll pay attention to the poll coming out in 36 hours.

Less guesswork

 

[Billy000]

The only way the polls won't be very accurate, is due to UNDERESTIMATING the amount of NEW VOTERS from the LEFT!

They underestimated the RIGHT on the last go-round.

This time the Left is turning out new voters.

I hope you’re right.

 

[shockedcanadian]

If the Dems take the House will there by bi-partisanship there, or will it be the more recent alt-left Groupthink in which they will vote 219 or 0 in favor of a particular issue?

 

[Rambunctious]

"If any of you claim 538 has a liberal bias, you need to be punched in the face."


538 has a liberal bias

 

[buckeye45_73]

Facts do have a liberal bias. Explains why cons hate facts so much.

That's why you guys never debate, you just call people racist....because the facts favor you....bwahahahahahahaahaha

 

[idb]

"If any of you claim 538 has a liberal bias, you need to be punched in the face."


538 has a liberal bias

They have the Republicans more likely to hold the Senate.
Do you disagree with them?

 

[Rambunctious]

They have the Republicans more likely to hold the Senate.
Do you disagree with them?

No....only a fool would opine differently there....

 

[buckeye45_73]

...Republicans have of holding on to the senate. It’s a slight 2% difference anyway.

This, of course, still means we can assume republicans will keep the senate, but us liberals can take comfort that the Dems will take the House.

Could this forecast be totally off? Yes. Trump’s election was certainly surprising to mostly everyone. I suppose I can just sleep soundly at least for tonight.

2018 Senate Forecast

If any of you claim 538 has a liberal bias, you need to be punched in the face.

We'll see on election night, I'm already seeing things like this


Polls point to Democratic takeover of the House, but here's what could change that



Nate Silver says Dems could retake House, or not: 'Both extremely possible'
His site says an 87% chance and he doesn't seem that confidant....hmmmmmm