Are the polls wrong? No. Are they perfect? No.

[Pamforyoursam]

This seems to be a big issue here, not being able to understand the Electoral College (only state polls matter) and polling in general so, here is 2008 and the polls were right.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Here is 2012, and the polls were mostly right.

2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolitics

And here is today, a little more than three weeks out.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

What does all this? It means, believe it or not, that Trump is not going to win.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

[Norman]

What, I didn't realize the election was held today...

Do you see the massive variance in the polling?

Nothing is set in stone yet...

 

[kaz]

This seems to be a big issue here, not being able to understand the Electoral College (only state polls matter) and polling in general so, here is 2008 and the polls were right.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Here is 2012, and the polls were mostly right.

Error | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

And here is today, a little more than three weeks out.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

What does all this? It means, believe it or not, that Trump is not going to win.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Determining "likely voters" is always the trick, and that is exponentially harder this year. Also, polls balance with party affiliation, which again is weaker this year as the swing States particularly have Democrat blue color open to Trump and the number of Republicans unhappy with Trump.

That doesn't however mean the polls are wrong in Trump's favor necessarily. The election could be a pretty big surprise either way

 

[Pamforyoursam]

This seems to be a big issue here, not being able to understand the Electoral College (only state polls matter) and polling in general so, here is 2008 and the polls were right.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Here is 2012, and the polls were mostly right.

Error | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

And here is today, a little more than three weeks out.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

What does all this? It means, believe it or not, that Trump is not going to win.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Determining "likely voters" is always the trick, and that is exponentially harder this year. Also, polls balance with party affiliation, which again is weaker this year as the swing States particularly have Democrat blue color open to Trump and the number of Republicans unhappy with Trump.

That doesn't however mean the polls are wrong in Trump's favor necessarily. The election could be a pretty big surprise either way

There will be no surprise. We have the polling and the trends. The time for a big swing is over.

 

[kaz]

This seems to be a big issue here, not being able to understand the Electoral College (only state polls matter) and polling in general so, here is 2008 and the polls were right.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Here is 2012, and the polls were mostly right.

Error | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

And here is today, a little more than three weeks out.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

What does all this? It means, believe it or not, that Trump is not going to win.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Determining "likely voters" is always the trick, and that is exponentially harder this year. Also, polls balance with party affiliation, which again is weaker this year as the swing States particularly have Democrat blue color open to Trump and the number of Republicans unhappy with Trump.

That doesn't however mean the polls are wrong in Trump's favor necessarily. The election could be a pretty big surprise either way

There will be no surprise. We have the polling and the trends. The time for a big swing is over.

You didn't address my point, which is who will show up? Pollsters aren't sure, and for good reason. Trump is wildly loved by half the Republican party and very hated by an unusually large percent for a major party's candidate. While the rest are holding their nose and saying they'll vote for him, will they show up?

And Hillary is trying to get a better turnout to oppose Trump, but she too has historically high negatives and a lot of Democrats just aren't motivated. Democrats are way worse at just showing up to vote than Republicans are overall, which is why Democrats rule Presidential elections and Republicans rule off year elections. But Hillary is so disliked by so many Democrats, can she pull them in to actually go vote? That's not clear.

Bad weather always hurts Dems, but this year in particularly could be devastating for Democrats if there is bad weather in swing States due to the apathy so many Democrats already have to voting for her. So yeah, pollsters could well be way off either way

 

[kyzr]

I still say that if I rode the NYC subways, but worked for the NYT or similar company, if a pollster called me and asked who I was voting for, I would say Hillary to protect my job, but would vote for Trump to protect my ass.