Post Conviction Polls Are Not Looking Good for Biden

[Road Runner]

Trump continues to maintain small leads or tied with Biden in swing state polls. While it's still early and the full effects of the convictions may not yet be showing up, especially pre-sentencing, the fact this race is even competitive still should be alarming to the Biden camp. He's still in a tied race with a convicted felon. He should be ten points ahead. Even more alarming is that three polls out of Virginia in the past month have showed a tied race and that state hasn't been won by a Republican presidential candidate since 2004.

Latest Polls 2024 | RealClearPolling

Stay up to date on all the latest 2024 election and state of the union polls. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.

www.realclearpolling.com

What's truly alarming is that you're just suddenly now noticing all of this. If it wasn't for your TDS threads you might actually have been paying attention to the fact that we all can see through the bullshit and Biden was installed into the white house like a public toilet and never voted in there in the first place.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

We are still far enough out from election day 2024, that it's curious to see people stumbling around like they do every 4 years. End of August/September (after the unofficial Summer), is when it gets interesting -- then there is what people know of as the October Surprise. Get it -- October?

Here we go:

Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is irrevocably broken,” that pollsters should be ignored, or that “the polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.”

What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling

Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?

www.pewresearch.org

October/November 2020:

National : President: general election : 2020 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2020 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling

Explore poll data on the 2020 General Election between Trump and Biden. Gain insights into key trends and electoral dynamics.

www.realclearpolling.com

 

[Meathead]

Considering how little the polls have changed for months and months, I'd say the narratives of things helping Trump are more mythical than reality. And make no mistake about it, Mr. Trump has made the election about himself.

There is nothing I and others see as alarming, but one thing I believe is that America is not going to elect a convicted felon to be President. It's a strong belief. It's a belief in the goodness and greatness of America, and it's democratic institutions.

Fuck it, you didn't get the bump you were hoping for from the Stalinist show trial. The needle has not moved much either way so Biden/Harris (WTF were they thinking) are very likely to lose.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

What's truly alarming is that you're just suddenly now noticing all of this. If it wasn't for your TDS...

This is where (insert TDS), your argument most likely loses any audience you may be trying to convince of something.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

We are still far enough out from election day 2024, that it's curious to see people stumbling around like they do every 4 years. End of August/September (after the unofficial Summer), is when it gets interesting -- then there is what people know of as the October Surprise. Get it -- October?

Here we go:

Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is irrevocably broken,” that pollsters should be ignored, or that “the polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.”

What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling

Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?

www.pewresearch.org

October/November 2020:

National : President: general election : 2020 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2020 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling

Explore poll data on the 2020 General Election between Trump and Biden. Gain insights into key trends and electoral dynamics.

www.realclearpolling.com

We are still far enough out from election day 2024, that it's curious to see people stumbling around like they do every 4 years. End of August/September (after the unofficial Summer), is when it gets interesting -- then there is what people know of as the October Surprise. Get it -- October?

Here we go:

Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is irrevocably broken,” that pollsters should be ignored, or that “the polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.”

 

[JoeB131]

Trump continues to maintain small leads or tied with Biden in swing state polls. While it's still early and the full effects of the convictions may not yet be showing up, especially pre-sentencing, the fact this race is even competitive still should be alarming to the Biden camp. He's still in a tied race with a convicted felon. He should be ten points ahead. Even more alarming is that three polls out of Virginia in the past month have showed a tied race and that state hasn't been won by a Republican presidential candidate since 2004.

Latest Polls 2024 | RealClearPolling

Stay up to date on all the latest 2024 election and state of the union polls. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.

www.realclearpolling.com

First, I would take anything RCP says with a grain of salt... it's a hack site.

Secondly, on the national level, the gap is only an average of 0.5 in Trump's favor. I wouldn't call that good for him, because undecided usually break for the incumbent.

Look, guy, no one is going to tap in for Biden and if you want to piss away your vote on a guy like Brainworm Bobby, that's your perogative.

But the choice this year is Democracy or Fascism, with a guy who is only running to stay out of jail.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

The polls are now in the margin of error, which is a favorable trend for Biden.

The Debate will be a Trump disaster.

Trump will be sentenced on July, which will include probation and he will break it and be jailed.

 

[Road Runner]

The Debate will be a Trump disaster.

Trump will be sentenced on July, which will include probation and he will break it and be jailed.

And how do you know this exactly?

 

[Meathead]

The polls are now in the margin of error, which is a favorable trend for Biden.

The Debate will be a Trump disaster.

Trump will be sentenced on July, which will include probation and he will break it and be jailed.

You need a new crystal ball.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

... because Donaldus is Donaldus.

 

[Meathead]

... because Donaldus is Donaldus.

Even with some slight tweaking, a tautology is a tautology and weak by definition.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

You need a new crystal ball.

Hardly.

 

[MarathonMike]

That's only a recent phenomena. I would not bet the farm on figuring out Virginia being deep blue or not.

All of the polling trends point down for Biden whether it's swing states, blue states, Black voters, Hispanic voters ALL OF THEM. The trend is not Biden's friend.

 

[Meathead]

All of the polling trends point down for Biden whether it's swing states, blue states, Black voters, Hispanic voters ALL OF THEM. The trend is not Biden's friend.

A lot of people didn't understand Joe's degenerative condition when they voted for him in 2020. Now the entire world knows, and it's not getting any better,

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

All of the polling trends point down for Biden whether it's swing states, blue states, Black voters, Hispanic voters ALL OF THEM. The trend is not Biden's friend.

Trump is not winning with minority voters. You are again conflating tings as you attempt to spin narratives that end up going out into bizarro land

 

[MarathonMike]

A lot of people didn't understand Joe's degenerative condition when they voted for him in 2020. Now the entire world knows, and it's not getting any better,

I'm more concerned about the degenerative condition of the country that the Democrats have created.

 

[rightwinger]

Biden lead Trump in over 90% of head to head general election polls in 2020

Yes he did
Polls had Biden up 8 percent a week before the election, he won by half that
They missed Arizona and Georgia

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Yes he did
Polls had Biden up 8 percent a week before the election, he won by half that
They missed Arizona and Georgia

Nonetheless, these polls are nothing like 2020. As you just pointed out, Biden was well ahead of Trump routinely and he easily won. That's not what we're seeing this time and he wasn't running against a convicted criminal.

 

[noonereal]

Trump continues to maintain small leads or tied with Biden in swing state polls. While it's still early and the full effects of the convictions may not yet be showing up, especially pre-sentencing, the fact this race is even competitive still should be alarming to the Biden camp. He's still in a tied race with a convicted felon. He should be ten points ahead. Even more alarming is that three polls out of Virginia in the past month have showed a tied race and that state hasn't been won by a Republican presidential candidate since 2004.

Latest Polls 2024 | RealClearPolling

Stay up to date on all the latest 2024 election and state of the union polls. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.

www.realclearpolling.com

IMHO, no way in hell Good Ole' Joe gets re-elected. Say goodbye to democracy, the great post WWII stable world we have lived in and your freedoms if you don't joint the cult.

 

[rightwinger]

We are still far enough out from election day 2024, that it's curious to see people stumbling around like they do every 4 years. End of August/September (after the unofficial Summer), is when it gets interesting -- then there is what people know of as the October Surprise. Get it -- October?

Here we go:

Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is irrevocably broken,” that pollsters should be ignored, or that “the polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.”

What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling

Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?

www.pewresearch.org

October/November 2020:

National : President: general election : 2020 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2020 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling

Explore poll data on the 2020 General Election between Trump and Biden. Gain insights into key trends and electoral dynamics.

www.realclearpolling.com

The key to the 2020 polls is not just that Biden came nowhere near winning by 7.2 percent but none of those polls predicted that Arizona and Georgia would flip Democrat.
If they can’t get that…what use are they?