Climate change 'tipping points' imminent

[westwall]

See that peak in 1950?? Since that time it has been a slow downwards trend. The SUN DOESN"T EXPLAI THE past 35 years.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png

The little ice age had a very low solar flux

Actually, yes it does....

Actually, no it does not.

I see you never learned how to read a graph at your remedial school either!

 

[Kosh]

Here is a graph that will make their heads spin:

 

[flacaltenn]

Kosh you'd have to ignore dozens of studies of the past 10 years to believe the medieval was warmer globally. Maybe in Europe as the NAO might of been different during that time.

Of course there are other studies that say otherwise that are older from the IPPC in 1990. Everything seems to be a crapshoot within this field.

GLOBAL proxy studies are just mathematically crap (no shoot) The HARD evidence of individuall studies is worldwide aand even fooled the IPCC for awhile til the propaganda machine and the hockeystick generators kicked into high gear.

What hard evidence would that be?

Four or Five days ago -- you had no clue about the difference in precision and time accuracies of INDIVIDUAL temp. proxy studies and the mess you create when you try to MERGE them into a GLOBAL temp. record over millenium.. Now you want me to present the evidence contained in the available world-wide proxy studies that SHOW larger periods of warmth?

There are DOZENS of them. I've posted at least 6 or 8 in the past year and nobody cared.
Largely, I suppose because skepticalscience hasn't told you warmer babies what to think about them..

But as an example -- there was a thread about 60 days ago on here touting that a new Local proxy study "discovered warming" in the ocean over the past 1000 years.. Obviously ATTEMPTING to bolster the Trenberth Ocean warming theory.. But INCIDENTALLY, that REGIONAL INDIVIDUAL proxy study of mid-ocean sediments SHOWS that tropical waters were WARMER during the Med. Warm Per. than the IPCC or Mann or any of these GLOBAL abominations proclaim.. Thus providing evidence that the MWP WAS as warm or warmer than the CE warming and that it was GLOBAL - not limited to NHemi as your bible proclaims...

http://www.usmessageboard.com/environment/322005-pacific-ocean-waters-absorbing-heat-15-times-faster-over-past-60-years-than-in-past-1-a.html#post8088408

You were on that thread tossing your cookies... And you don't REMEMBER that type of evidence? No.. I believe you didn't understand what you were looking at OR that you suppress any evidence that contradicts your religion...

 

[flacaltenn]

BTW Abraham --- I went back to read your comments about my observation on that paper..

You'll be thrilled to recall your response at the time to the EVIDENCE for a GLOBAL and much WARMER Med. Warm Period..

22005-pacific-ocean-waters-absorbing-heat-15-times-faster-over-past-60-years-than-in-past-1-a.html#post8099511

Ready for your STUDIED and INTELLECTUAL response at the time???

I don't give a rat's ass what happened during the MWP or the LIA or any other pre-human period. WE are the cause of the current temperature rise. All this MWP crap is 100% worthless distraction.

Actually BullWinkle -- you DO give a rats ass about evidence like that. You're just too stupid to realize it. Because it BLOWS AWAY the religious dogma that you spout about "temperatures never being HIGHER in the Modern Era" or that RATES are more significant today than they've ever been. The latter being because the proxy resolutions can say virtually NOTHING about rates under 50 yrs or so in extent..

Your little cult is doomed....

 

[RollingThunder]

What do you think happened to the dinosaurs? It wasnt a meteor....it was dino farts.
To bad they didnt have Al Gore to save them.

Do you both take 'stupid pills' or is it genetic?

Apparently you're so brain dead you thought I was serious.
Hope you dont vote because you'll believe anything. But then you believed obammy,so I guess thats already been established.

LOLOLOL......no no, little retard, I didn't for an instant imagine that you were "serious". I knew right away that you're an imbecile who has no idea what's going on and who just parrots the mindless bullshit you heard from Rush or some other rightwingnut reality-denying fruitcake.

 

[RollingThunder]

Historically the sun and earth temperature stay closed to each other...

Now look at the past 40 years.

You can't explain it any other fucking way.

Explain what?

Well, first off, how did you get so stupid?

Second, how the fact that solar irradiance declined while temperatures went up supports your denier cult myth that any warming is due only to the sun?

 

[HereWeGoAgain]

Do you both take 'stupid pills' or is it genetic?

Apparently you're so brain dead you thought I was serious.
Hope you dont vote because you'll believe anything. But then you believed obammy,so I guess thats already been established.

LOLOLOL......no no, little retard, I didn't for an instant imagine that you were "serious". I knew right away that you're an imbecile who has no idea what's going on and who just parrots the mindless bullshit you heard from Rush or some other rightwingnut reality-denying fruitcake.

So whats with the quotation marks?
Awwww you poor baby you sound bitter. Watching your pres fail repeatedly is starting to get to you isn't it? Don't worry it'll end soon,because he's gone well past lame duck to dead duck status and he wont accomplish shit from here on out.

Enjoy!!!

 

[Kosh]

Historically the sun and earth temperature stay closed to each other...

Now look at the past 40 years.

You can't explain it any other fucking way.

Explain what?

Well, first off, how did you get so stupid?

Second, how the fact that solar irradiance declined while temperatures went up supports your denier cult myth that any warming is due only to the sun?

 

[RollingThunder]

Explain what?

Well, first off, how did you get so stupid?

Second, how the fact that solar irradiance declined while temperatures went up supports your denier cult myth that any warming is due only to the sun?

LOLOLOL....so?

 

[Kosh]

See once the AGW church members are faced with real and actual data they can not respond.

 

[Ernie S.]

That's how you respond to data? I can see why you lose so many arguments.

Data?

So, in 1900 there were readings of solar radiation activity?

You folk engage in open fraud - you rub the public's nose in the fact that at least 50% of the data you present is made up out of thin air.

Open fraud and downright lies. Check this thread:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/environment/328872-greenpeace-christmas-cancelled.html

 

[PredFan]

1975: The total freezing over of the planet is imminent!
1985: The complete destruction of the Ozone Layer is imminent!
1995: The melting of the polar ice caps is imminent!
2005: the last winter if snow is imminent!
2013: The Climate Change tipping point is imminent!

 

[HereWeGoAgain]

1975: The total freezing over of the planet is imminent!
1985: The complete destruction of the Ozone Layer is imminent!
1995: The melting of the polar ice caps is imminent!
2005: the last winter if snow is imminent!
2013: The Climate Change tipping point is imminent!

Gee ....I think I'm starting to see a pattern.
And libs fall for it time and time again.

 

[RollingThunder]

1975: The total freezing over of the planet is imminent!

Denier cult myth. Most scientists even then thought warming was more likely.

1985: The complete destruction of the Ozone Layer is imminent!

The ozone layer was, in fact, being thinned by chlorofluorocarbons and a hole in the ozone appeared over Antarctica and the incidence of melanomas and skin cancers increased, particularly in Australia, but nobody was predicting the "imminent complete destruction of the Ozone Layer". So, just another denier cult myth/exaggeration/propaganda meme to deceive the gullible, ignorant, anti-science rightwingnuts like you, ProdFcked.

1995: The melting of the polar ice caps is imminent!

True. The polar ice caps are melting now. The Arctic ice cap is melting away far more quickly than Antarctica but both are losing ice mass. However, no scientists were predicting in 1995 that they would melt as much as they actually have this soon.

2005: the last winter if snow is imminent!

Denier cult myth and complete nonsense. Jeez, you're gullible, ProdFcked.

2013: The Climate Change tipping point is imminent!

True. Several climate change tipping points are either imminent or have already been passed. Arctic feedback is one and that happens when the icy white reflective ice cover over the ocean melts and the dark, energy absorbing ocean surface starts warming even faster, thus melting more of the ice cover. Arctic methane release is another and that is already starting to happen as the permafrost melts and the sea bottom methane clathrates destabilize and methane gas, which is another greenhouse gas that is over 30 times more powerful than CO2, goes into the air and causes even faster warming. The Arctic is now warming up eight times faster than the rest of the planet.

 

[ScienceRocks]

See once the AGW church members are faced with real and actual data they can not respond.

Idiot speaks again. lol

Maybe it has something to do with movement of heat through the climate system? You do know that most of our planet is ocean right???

2002-2007 was primarly nino while 2008-2013 has been strongly nina....You do know what the enso, pdo and nao is child? Right?

Maybe that can explain slowing of the warming?

Or how about the fact that the sun does in fact have some power over the climate and that's decreasing. Funny how we haven't gone down the past 7-8 years.

 

[westwall]

See once the AGW church members are faced with real and actual data they can not respond.

Idiot speaks again. lol

Maybe it has something to do with movement of heat through the climate system? You do know that most of our planet is ocean right???

2002-2007 was primarly nino while 2008-2013 has been strongly nina....You do know what the enso, pdo and nao is child? Right?

Maybe that can explain slowing of the warming?

Or how about the fact that the sun does in fact have some power over the climate and that's decreasing. Funny how we haven't gone down the past 7-8 years.

Gone down? I don't exactly know what you mean by this but I can tell you that when the AGW cultists were warning everyone that winters were going to be exceptionally warm the exact opposite happened. Millions of animals have frozen to death, buildings have cracked in the UK from the weight of snow on them, etc. etc. etc.

That has been going on for over 5 years now..to the point that the UK's Met Office lost all credibility and few companies use their predictions any longer.

 

[Uncensored2008]

True. The polar ice caps are melting now. The Arctic ice cap is melting away far more quickly than Antarctica but both are losing ice mass. However, no scientists were predicting in 1995 that they would melt as much as they actually have this soon.

When you lie, do you get a bonus grant?

{Antarctic sea ice has grown to a record large extent for a second straight year, baffling scientists seeking to understand why this ice is expanding rather than shrinking in a warming world.

On Saturday, the ice extent reached 19.51 million square kilometers, according to data posted on the National Snow and Ice Data Center Web site. That number bested record high levels set earlier this month and in 2012 (of 19.48 million square kilometers). Records date back to October 1978.}


Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday

 

[flacaltenn]

Historically the sun and earth temperature stay closed to each other...

Now look at the past 40 years.

You can't explain it any other fucking way.

Explain what?

Well, first off, how did you get so stupid?

Second, how the fact that solar irradiance declined while temperatures went up supports your denier cult myth that any warming is due only to the sun?

You've invested way too much time in climate science and way too little in Physics and Engineering. ANY scientist/engineer with a broad background will tell you there is no requirement for the output graph of a complex system TO MATCH the shape of its input graph.

Any system with an Integral Function inside it will continue to climb or fall with a STATIC FLATLINE differential of an input.. That's a fact... And any scientist/engineer worth his degrees will look at a stupid ass simple theory like Global Warming with UNDERSTANDABLE skepticism. The idea that the climate can be summarized with ONE SCALAR NUMBER (like Global Annual Mean Surface Temp) and ONE primary parameter like CO2 conc. is laughable.

That's why there's a raging debate. Because there is WARRANTED skepticism about the circus thats come to town with these amatuers.

As far as the sun goes --- we are looking for an effect from a 0.1% modulation of forcings. That could come from a number of solar sources. From changes in spectral composition changing the GHouse window to even the modulation of the relative High and Low periods of the 22 yr cycle. We KNOW that both these things happen -- but have only had the tools to measure them for about 25 yrs.

Your furnace does not get hotter when you turn up the thermostat.. There's an integral in the system. And the INPUT forcing function does not vary in MAGNITUDE.. It varies in time.
So far --- my skepticism comes from the total Grover/Big Bird type of modeling and thinking that Climate Science has highlighted.

And SUNSPOTS do not completely measure solar surface flux.. They also dont' account for DURATIONS of sun spot activity.. They are a RUSE to minimize the actual increases in Solar irradiation for PR purposes..

 

[flacaltenn]

Solar Irradiance has NOT GONE DOWN.. It climbed over a 300 year period and REMAINS at a relative high value wrt the last millenia... You'll KNOW if it "goes down" suddenly and significantly.. And that ---- just might happen..

 

[RollingThunder]

True. The polar ice caps are melting now. The Arctic ice cap is melting away far more quickly than Antarctica but both are losing ice mass. However, no scientists were predicting in 1995 that they would melt as much as they actually have this soon.

When you lie, do you get a bonus grant?

{Antarctic sea ice has grown to a record large extent for a second straight year, baffling scientists seeking to understand why this ice is expanding rather than shrinking in a warming world.

On Saturday, the ice extent reached 19.51 million square kilometers, according to data posted on the National Snow and Ice Data Center Web site. That number bested record high levels set earlier this month and in 2012 (of 19.48 million square kilometers). Records date back to October 1978.}

Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday

Once again you demonstrate you have no actual understanding of what is happening, Unhinged. When I referred to the Antarctic ice cap, I was referring to the miles thick ice sheets that cover the continent of Antarctica, not the thin fringe of seasonal sea ice that melts away to low levels in the Southern Hemisphere summer months and grows to about it's current extent in the winter. The sea ice represents an extremely small percentage of the total ice locked up in the ice sheets. The ice sheets are indeed losing ice mass, as I stated.

Here's some more excerpts from the article you're citing, that you are apparently too stupid to comprehend.

Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday
Washington Post
BY JASON SAMENOW
September 23

In a new study in the Journal of Climate, Jinlun Zhang, a University of Washington scientist, studying Antarctic ice, finds both strengthening and converging winds around the South Pole can explain 80 percent of the increase in ice volume which has been observed. “The polar vortex that swirls around the South Pole is not just stronger than it was when satellite records began in the 1970s, it has more convergence, meaning it shoves the sea ice together to cause ridging,” the study’s press release explains. “Stronger winds also drive ice faster, which leads to still more deformation and ridging. This creates thicker, longer-lasting ice, while exposing surrounding water and thin ice to the blistering cold winds that cause more ice growth.”

A recent study by Lorenzo Polvani and Karen Smith of Columbia University says the model-defying sea ice increase may just reflect natural variability. If the increase in ice is due to natural variability, Zhang says, warming from manmade greenhouse gases should eventually overcome it and cause the ice to begin retreating. “If the warming continues, at some point the trend will reverse,” Zhang said. Ultimately, it’s apparent the relationship between ozone depletion, climate warming from greenhouse gases, natural variability, and how Antarctic ice responds is all very complicated. “…the seeming paradox of Antarctic ice increasing while Arctic ice is decreasing is really no paradox at all,” explains Climate Central’s Lemonick. “The Arctic is an ocean surrounded by land, while the Antarctic is land surrounded by ocean. In the Arctic, moreover, you’ve got sea ice decreasing in the summer; at the opposite pole, you’ve got sea ice increasing in the winter. It’s not just an apples-and-oranges comparison: it’s more like comparing apple pie with orange juice.”