Rikurzhen
Gold Member
- Jul 24, 2014
- 6,145
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From the New Republic:
The Washington Post:
In a political universe dominated by ideas, we see both Republicans and Democrats capturing between 48% and 52% of the vote of all blacks, Jews, whites, Asians, Hispanics, men, women, etc. Ideas are universal, so formulating winning ideas would appeal to broad classes of people.
We haven't operated in such a political universe since the 60s. We now exist in a transitional state, Democrats have gone whole hog with identity group politics. They've focused lots of effort on capturing blacks, women, and Hispanics but once they start focusing on identity like this they are going to create a racialized political environment because there will be backlash from whites, for when benefits are given to blacks and Asians and Hispanics solely due to their race it becomes clear that those benefits come out of the hides of whites.
Democrats have had a fixation on capturing the Hispanic vote and mocking the Republicans for being the party of white people while the future belonged to minorities. Well, whites within the Democratic orbit heard that message loud and clear - they weren't valued or wanted by the Democrats, they were supposed to lay down and let minorities get special privileges that came out of their hides or those of their children. White became the enemy of Democrats, so why then stay a Democrat.
The Democrats have a big problem on their hands. They miscalculated, believing that the old idea model of the political universe would hold white Democrats within the orbit of the Democratic Party while the party simultaneously went into overdrive on identity politics. Nope, change is never unidirectional because we don't live in a static universe - when you change one feature then there will be a counter reaction elsewhere.
The only way to win back more of the white vote is to abandon race-based policies which the Democrats use to appeal to blacks, Hispanics and Asians. This puts Democrats between a rock and a hard place - they have to choose one model or the other - ideas or identity. This cycle they earned 30-32% of the white vote in many races and even lower in other races. The long term trends here are not encouraging for the Democrats. As they become evermore the party of color they'll drive away whites and we'll all find ourselves living in a racially polarized political universe - the white party versus the party of color.
. . .in 2016 and in future midterm elections, the Democrats will still have to do better among those parts of the electorate that have flocked to the Republicans: older voters and white working-class voters. The numbers for the latter in this election were singularly dispiriting. In Florida, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist lost whites without college degrees by 32 to 61 percent; in Virginia, Senator Mark Warner’s near-death experience was due to losing these voters by 30 to 68 percent. In Colorado and Iowa, they held the key to Republican Senate victories. In 2012, the Democrats benefited by facing a Republican who reeked of money and privilege and displayed indifference toward the 47 percent. Romney lost the white working class in states like Ohio. Democrats may not have that luxury of a Mitt Romney in the next election. And in that case, they will have to do considerably better among these voters, or else 2016 could turn out to be another nightmare election for the Democrats.
The Washington Post:
“We have a problem,” Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who polled on the Kentucky Senate race, told me. “If we’re really going to expand our chances in the Senate and House, we have to appeal to a wider group than we are now.”
The exit polls show that candidates like Mark Pryor, Kay Hagan, Bruce Braley and Mark Udall lost by anywhere from large to truly massive margins among non-college whites and older voters. That’s also true of the overall national electorate. You should treat these exit polls with a grain of salt, but the pollsters I spoke to agree that this gets at a fundamental problem Democrats face….
“We have a huge problem: People do not think the recovery has affected them, and this is particularly true of blue collar white voters,” [Democratic pollster Celinda] Lake said. “What is the Democratic economic platform for guaranteeing a chance at prosperity for everyone? Voters can’t articulate it. In the absence of that, you vote for change.”
The exit polls show that candidates like Mark Pryor, Kay Hagan, Bruce Braley and Mark Udall lost by anywhere from large to truly massive margins among non-college whites and older voters. That’s also true of the overall national electorate. You should treat these exit polls with a grain of salt, but the pollsters I spoke to agree that this gets at a fundamental problem Democrats face….
“We have a huge problem: People do not think the recovery has affected them, and this is particularly true of blue collar white voters,” [Democratic pollster Celinda] Lake said. “What is the Democratic economic platform for guaranteeing a chance at prosperity for everyone? Voters can’t articulate it. In the absence of that, you vote for change.”
In a political universe dominated by ideas, we see both Republicans and Democrats capturing between 48% and 52% of the vote of all blacks, Jews, whites, Asians, Hispanics, men, women, etc. Ideas are universal, so formulating winning ideas would appeal to broad classes of people.
We haven't operated in such a political universe since the 60s. We now exist in a transitional state, Democrats have gone whole hog with identity group politics. They've focused lots of effort on capturing blacks, women, and Hispanics but once they start focusing on identity like this they are going to create a racialized political environment because there will be backlash from whites, for when benefits are given to blacks and Asians and Hispanics solely due to their race it becomes clear that those benefits come out of the hides of whites.
Democrats have had a fixation on capturing the Hispanic vote and mocking the Republicans for being the party of white people while the future belonged to minorities. Well, whites within the Democratic orbit heard that message loud and clear - they weren't valued or wanted by the Democrats, they were supposed to lay down and let minorities get special privileges that came out of their hides or those of their children. White became the enemy of Democrats, so why then stay a Democrat.
The Democrats have a big problem on their hands. They miscalculated, believing that the old idea model of the political universe would hold white Democrats within the orbit of the Democratic Party while the party simultaneously went into overdrive on identity politics. Nope, change is never unidirectional because we don't live in a static universe - when you change one feature then there will be a counter reaction elsewhere.
The only way to win back more of the white vote is to abandon race-based policies which the Democrats use to appeal to blacks, Hispanics and Asians. This puts Democrats between a rock and a hard place - they have to choose one model or the other - ideas or identity. This cycle they earned 30-32% of the white vote in many races and even lower in other races. The long term trends here are not encouraging for the Democrats. As they become evermore the party of color they'll drive away whites and we'll all find ourselves living in a racially polarized political universe - the white party versus the party of color.
