CDZ Economic Carnage Is Coming

[Toro]

I'm more of an optimist than some on this thread. There is going to be (IMO) 2-3 quarters of hurt as the economy is gearing up again.
Most places in the US weren't hit has hard as the 4-5 states that got nailed. Those other states will get back to normal a lot sooner and
will lead the way for those other hard hit states. This event overall, is a short lived event in the scheme of things. Our economy was fairly
strong before the virus and had good numbers right up to when the virus hit, so there weren't a lot of other negatives affecting us.

I used to think that. But as I've read more and deepened my understanding of what has happened, I do not believe the economy will fully recover until a vaccine is widely available. Until then, the economy will only slowly improve as we re-open the economy in stages. A vaccine will likely be ready at the end of this year. But that will go first to those on the front lines, i.e. doctors, first responders, etc. It won't be mass produced until the second half of 2021.

 

[Toro]

There will be another outbreak in the winter. When that happens, the economy will shut in again. The outbreak won't be as bad, and thus the economic contraction won't be as bad. But it will lead to similar behaviors we are seeing today.

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

Feel free to disagree with me...but this is not a left or right thread...leave politics out of it please.

We have massive money printing going on (stimulus checks) which will cause inflation...primarily with food because that is primarily where the printed money is going.

We have massive shutdowns of business which has cause massive loss in tax revenue.

We had unsustainable pension plans that have been hanging on by their finger tips for years...the loss of tax revenue will certainly be enough to tip these over.

The job losses have caused millions to not be able to pay their rent or mortgage...landlords and mortgage companies CAN'T TAKE THAT HIT...they'll go bankrupt.

It is said that 4 out of 5 businesses that are closed right now will not re-open. That will hit the commercial mortgage sector. (not to mention the MBS's and the CDO's which is what started the 2008 financial crisis).

What we are about to see is going to be biblical in scope! And if you are not afraid, you are not paying attention.

“With all due respect sir, I believe this is going to be our finest hour.”
- Gene Kranz

 

[Thunk]

I'm more of an optimist than some on this thread. There is going to be (IMO) 2-3 quarters of hurt as the economy is gearing up again.

I would agree with you until debt, and leverage, and credit default swaps come into play

Did I mention derivatives?

 

[Thunk]

“With all due respect sir, I believe this is going to be our finest hour.”
- Gene Kranz

From your mouth to Gods ears! I hope so!

And I'm more than willing to play my part & help out!

 

[there4eyeM]

Interesting thread.
We need to keep in mind what has transpired.
In 2008, the financial world torpedoed us with its excesses. No human drama, no decimation of the population, no disappearance of necessities happened. It was just a matter of money, but it was experienced as a "crisis" and we paid for "their" errors, and we suffered while "they" merely kept on keeping on.
This time, the crisis comes from something truly meaningful; human suffering. Yet, we must remember that all the necessities of life remain intact. There is enough of everything for everyone. We simply have to continue to do and act as we have to provide for one another. Just do our jobs and be ourselves. At the same time, it is a good opportunity for us to cut off the derivative addicted financial world that would drag us down with imaginary debt. We can leave that world behind and proceed to a new and better level of value based upon life and not lucre.

 

[Gdjjr]

I'm about to start a thread that explains our way of dealing with the massive money printing going on.
It's a little short on details but uses plenty of examples of why's and how's-

As far as this doom and gloom type thinking in this thread- beat em at their own game, live your life as best you can and strive daily to leave your space a little better than you found it- better defined by you, not society or some empty suit clown on the take - don't worry be happy- I saw a quote today: Fear does not stop death. It stops life. Worrying does not take away tomorrow's troubles. It takes away today's peace.

 

[Gdjjr]

At the same time, it is a good opportunity for us to cut off the derivative addicted financial world that would drag us down with imaginary debt. We can leave that world behind and proceed to a new and better level of value based upon life and not lucre.

That ain't gonna happen in our life time or even our kids, kids, kids- unless something catastrophic happens, which is possible but not probable.
Read what I'm about to start a thread with which explains how's and some why's-

 

[Deplorable Yankee]

View attachment 328577

There won't be anything like FDR's New Deal this time around. No money. People better be willing to work for a bowl of soup and what shelter is offered.

*****SMILE*****

And to help one another...regardless of politics,

Im gonna piss on your mass graves one day

 

[Thunk]

It looks like the state of NY is out of unemployment funds

As in...OUT!

 

[initforme]

We're gonna make it thru this relatively unscathed.

 

[harmonica]

I"m ready LORD!!!

 

[22lcidw]

I'm more of an optimist than some on this thread. There is going to be (IMO) 2-3 quarters of hurt as the economy is gearing up again.

I would agree with you until debt, and leverage, and credit default swaps come into play

Did I mention derivatives?

Wiping out a lot of debt and screwing over the peasants seems to be a possibility.

 

[HenryBHough]

Those who have lived their lives responsibly will survive. Those who haven't will suffer but most will not just die off.

Which sadly means the responsible need to be heavily armed.

 

[sparky]

Feel free to disagree with me

I agree w/you Thunk

it really doesn't take a rocket scientist to see we're on a bad path

~S~

 

[Coyote]

View attachment 328577

There won't be anything like FDR's New Deal this time around. No money. People better be willing to work for a bowl of soup and what shelter is offered.

*****SMILE*****

And to help one another...regardless of politics,

Im gonna piss on your mass graves one day

Incontinence seems to be a common problem.

 

[sparky]

View attachment 328577

There won't be anything like FDR's New Deal this time around. No money. People better be willing to work for a bowl of soup and what shelter is offered.

*****SMILE*****

And to help one another...regardless of politics,

most redeeming of the human race to hear those of you to say so coyote

~S~

 

[sparky]

One can just sense a breaking point , abrupt changes , sh*t going down.....~S~

 

[HenryBHough]

The real concern grocery chains need to have is what happens when the panic dies down. How much toilet paper can you sell when 90% of the households in America are sitting on an 18-months supply? Right now is a good time to have stock in those outfits but the prudent will be dumping it as soon as they seen the panic buying slow down. Then the layoffs of those new-hires will take off.

Think ahead.

 

[Thunk]

Those who have lived their lives responsibly will survive. Those who haven't will suffer but most will not just die off.

Which sadly means the responsible need to be heavily armed.

No argument from me

Is anybody planting a garden? I thunk gardens are going to be important!