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I'd agree with "fine" for the most part. But this "great" crap is simply delusional.The economy is doing fine.
However, the soft data is suggesting that the economy is starting to weaken. Whether or not it actually weakens remains to be seen.
View attachment 273880
The Daily Shot: China’s Producer Prices Back in Deflation, Pressuring Industrial Profits
I'd agree with "fine" for the most part. But this "great" crap is simply delusional.The economy is doing fine.
However, the soft data is suggesting that the economy is starting to weaken. Whether or not it actually weakens remains to be seen.
View attachment 273880
The Daily Shot: China’s Producer Prices Back in Deflation, Pressuring Industrial Profits
We're watching consumer debt (business debt already has us worried), and that's not looking good either.
We'll see. Maybe something good is happening behind the scenes with China.
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ME: We all know why the Left is screaming "Nazi" and "Racist" every day, its because they cannot touch Trump on the economy. Greatest jobs numbers in 50 years for God's sake!! Here is a great article on Economic points to look at:
How Is the US Economy Doing?
Six Facts That Tell You How the Economy Is Really Doing
BY KIMBERLY AMADEO Updated August 02, 2019
6 Facts That Tell You How the Economy Is Really Doing
There are six facts that tell you how the economy is doing. Economists call them leading economic indicators because they measure the early influencers on growth. In July 2019, they report that the economy is doing well. It has steady growth, low unemployment, and little inflation. That's called the Goldilocks economy because it's neither too hot nor too cold
1) 164,000 Jobs Added In July 2019 = Strong
In the Non-farm Payroll Report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys how many workers businesses added to their payroll each month. It doesn't count farm workers because farming is seasonal. A healthy economy will create 150,000 jobs on average. Companies will only add workers when they have enough demand to keep them busy.
Manufacturing jobs are an especially important indicator. According to the National Association of Manufacturers, the 12.75 million Americans who work in manufacturing earn an average $84,832 a year, including benefits. When manufacturers start laying them off, it means the economy will be heading into a recession. For example, manufacturers hired fewer workers starting in October 2006 when compared to the prior year.
The unemployment rate is also reported. It's a lagging indicator and so isn't as useful a statistic. Companies usually wait until a recession is well underway before laying off workers. It also takes a while to reduce the unemployment rate, even after hundreds of thousands of new jobs are being created.
Number 2 is coming up in my next post. Read them all: CLICK HERE
ME: We all know why the Left is screaming "Nazi" and "Racist" every day, its because they cannot touch Trump on the economy. Greatest jobs numbers in 50 years for God's sake!! Here is a great article on Economic points to look at:
How Is the US Economy Doing?
Six Facts That Tell You How the Economy Is Really Doing
BY KIMBERLY AMADEO Updated August 02, 2019
6 Facts That Tell You How the Economy Is Really Doing
There are six facts that tell you how the economy is doing. Economists call them leading economic indicators because they measure the early influencers on growth. In July 2019, they report that the economy is doing well. It has steady growth, low unemployment, and little inflation. That's called the Goldilocks economy because it's neither too hot nor too cold
1) 164,000 Jobs Added In July 2019 = Strong
In the Non-farm Payroll Report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys how many workers businesses added to their payroll each month. It doesn't count farm workers because farming is seasonal. A healthy economy will create 150,000 jobs on average. Companies will only add workers when they have enough demand to keep them busy.
Manufacturing jobs are an especially important indicator. According to the National Association of Manufacturers, the 12.75 million Americans who work in manufacturing earn an average $84,832 a year, including benefits. When manufacturers start laying them off, it means the economy will be heading into a recession. For example, manufacturers hired fewer workers starting in October 2006 when compared to the prior year.
The unemployment rate is also reported. It's a lagging indicator and so isn't as useful a statistic. Companies usually wait until a recession is well underway before laying off workers. It also takes a while to reduce the unemployment rate, even after hundreds of thousands of new jobs are being created.
Number 2 is coming up in my next post. Read them all: CLICK HERE
2) In Second Quarter 2019, GDP Growth Was 2.1% = Ideal
The economy is measured by gross domestic product. That's the dollar value of everything produced in the last year. The most important indicator is GDP growth, which compares this quarter with the last. If the economy is healthy, then GDP growth will be between 2-3%. If it's above 3%, then it could be overheating. When it's below 2%, then it's in danger of contraction. If it's below zero, then it's in a recession.
ME: We all know why the Left is screaming "Nazi" and "Racist" every day, its because they cannot touch Trump on the economy. Greatest jobs numbers in 50 years for God's sake!! Here is a great article on Economic points to look at:
How Is the US Economy Doing?
Six Facts That Tell You How the Economy Is Really Doing
BY KIMBERLY AMADEO Updated August 02, 2019
6 Facts That Tell You How the Economy Is Really Doing
There are six facts that tell you how the economy is doing. Economists call them leading economic indicators because they measure the early influencers on growth. In July 2019, they report that the economy is doing well. It has steady growth, low unemployment, and little inflation. That's called the Goldilocks economy because it's neither too hot nor too cold
1) 164,000 Jobs Added In July 2019 = Strong
In the Non-farm Payroll Report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys how many workers businesses added to their payroll each month. It doesn't count farm workers because farming is seasonal. A healthy economy will create 150,000 jobs on average. Companies will only add workers when they have enough demand to keep them busy.
Manufacturing jobs are an especially important indicator. According to the National Association of Manufacturers, the 12.75 million Americans who work in manufacturing earn an average $84,832 a year, including benefits. When manufacturers start laying them off, it means the economy will be heading into a recession. For example, manufacturers hired fewer workers starting in October 2006 when compared to the prior year.
The unemployment rate is also reported. It's a lagging indicator and so isn't as useful a statistic. Companies usually wait until a recession is well underway before laying off workers. It also takes a while to reduce the unemployment rate, even after hundreds of thousands of new jobs are being created.
Number 2 is coming up in my next post. Read them all: CLICK HERE
2) In Second Quarter 2019, GDP Growth Was 2.1% = Ideal
The economy is measured by gross domestic product. That's the dollar value of everything produced in the last year. The most important indicator is GDP growth, which compares this quarter with the last. If the economy is healthy, then GDP growth will be between 2-3%. If it's above 3%, then it could be overheating. When it's below 2%, then it's in danger of contraction. If it's below zero, then it's in a recession.
3) Durable Goods Orders Rose 2% in July 2019 = Good
Durable goods are machinery, equipment and raw materials that businesses use in their operations. Think of steam shovels, tanks, and airplanes. In fact, commercial planes are the largest component of durable goods.
To be considered a durable good, the equipment must last at least three years. They are expensive, so businesses put off buying them until they really need them. As a result, they are a great indicator of economic health. Businesses only buy them when they feel confident about the future.
2) In Second Quarter 2019, GDP Growth Was 2.1% = Ideal
When Obama was president 2.1% was terrible, it was the end of the world as we know it...and now it is "ideal"
View attachment 273884
I'd put consumer/business debt as the top danger right now, and I personally think that business debt is a much bigger danger than people realize.How much of this "great economy" is a debt bubble just waiting to pop?
The Fed lowered the rate because they expect a downturn.
ME: We all know why the Left is screaming "Nazi" and "Racist" every day, its because they cannot touch Trump on the economy. Greatest jobs numbers in 50 years for God's sake!! Here is a great article on Economic points to look at:
How Is the US Economy Doing?
Six Facts That Tell You How the Economy Is Really Doing
BY KIMBERLY AMADEO Updated August 02, 2019
6 Facts That Tell You How the Economy Is Really Doing
There are six facts that tell you how the economy is doing. Economists call them leading economic indicators because they measure the early influencers on growth. In July 2019, they report that the economy is doing well. It has steady growth, low unemployment, and little inflation. That's called the Goldilocks economy because it's neither too hot nor too cold
1) 164,000 Jobs Added In July 2019 = Strong
In the Non-farm Payroll Report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys how many workers businesses added to their payroll each month. It doesn't count farm workers because farming is seasonal. A healthy economy will create 150,000 jobs on average. Companies will only add workers when they have enough demand to keep them busy.
Manufacturing jobs are an especially important indicator. According to the National Association of Manufacturers, the 12.75 million Americans who work in manufacturing earn an average $84,832 a year, including benefits. When manufacturers start laying them off, it means the economy will be heading into a recession. For example, manufacturers hired fewer workers starting in October 2006 when compared to the prior year.
The unemployment rate is also reported. It's a lagging indicator and so isn't as useful a statistic. Companies usually wait until a recession is well underway before laying off workers. It also takes a while to reduce the unemployment rate, even after hundreds of thousands of new jobs are being created.
Number 2 is coming up in my next post. Read them all: CLICK HERE
2) In Second Quarter 2019, GDP Growth Was 2.1% = Ideal
The economy is measured by gross domestic product. That's the dollar value of everything produced in the last year. The most important indicator is GDP growth, which compares this quarter with the last. If the economy is healthy, then GDP growth will be between 2-3%. If it's above 3%, then it could be overheating. When it's below 2%, then it's in danger of contraction. If it's below zero, then it's in a recession.
3) Durable Goods Orders Rose 2% in July 2019 = Good
Durable goods are machinery, equipment and raw materials that businesses use in their operations. Think of steam shovels, tanks, and airplanes. In fact, commercial planes are the largest component of durable goods.
To be considered a durable good, the equipment must last at least three years. They are expensive, so businesses put off buying them until they really need them. As a result, they are a great indicator of economic health. Businesses only buy them when they feel confident about the future.
What is the average the last three months?
I'd put consumer/business debt as the top danger right now, and I personally think that business debt is a much bigger danger than people realize.How much of this "great economy" is a debt bubble just waiting to pop?
Shadow banks have been spraying out business loans like water for the last few years -- essentially to anyone with a pulse, a la sub-prime mortgages -- and that could cause a domino effect pretty easily. The question is the size of the effect.
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Only a fool would start a Trade War in a strong economy
Shut up stupid, American workers are fed up with China ripping us off. You bunch of dumb asses on the left really don't get why you lost in 2016.
Those are just facts. I'm sure this will annoy Trumpsters, especially since they're probably not told this stuff in their alternate universe.
- GDP is down to 2.1%.
- Treasury yields have crashed, down over 40%.
- The Fed just pissed off markets by DROPPING interest rates ONLY 25bps to mitigate weakness, when 50bps was hoped for.
- There is not enough economic activity, even with low unemployment, to drive inflation.
- It's appearing that the Keynesian spending by Trump (which Keynes said should NOT be done in periods of growth) gave us only a temporary sugar high.
The economy is not "great". It's pretty good, but the consensus is that more weakness is probably not far away. A good trade deal with China could provide a badly-needed injection, so here's hoping.
Okay, sorry, let's get back to the alternate universe now.
.
How much of this "great economy" is a debt bubble just waiting to pop? We passed the 2008 level of consumer debt some years ago. It's almost like no one learned anything from the great recession.
All forms of debt have been leveraged for many times their value by a banking system that seems intent on magnifying the damage caused by any sort of widespread default.I'd put consumer/business debt as the top danger right now, and I personally think that business debt is a much bigger danger than people realize.How much of this "great economy" is a debt bubble just waiting to pop?
Shadow banks have been spraying out business loans like water for the last few years -- essentially to anyone with a pulse, a la sub-prime mortgages -- and that could cause a domino effect pretty easily. The question is the size of the effect.
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Ray Dalio is BIG on debt:
