Extremes

[flacaltenn]

Here's what I'm talking about..

(Don't ask me about the weird vertical normalization for "major hurricanes". That plot is NOT number of them, but has been crunched to be the probability or variance of them for some odd reason..) I would like to see NUMBER of major storms RAW because when your calculating the probability of ONE occurrence in a down season, it gets iffy..

The effect of AMO on hurricanes is a NATURAL effect.. And there SEEMS to be a relationship with number of major hurricanes (maybe). Not neccessarily TOTAL storms. For some reason, that's harder to find or is buried because it hurts the Global Weirding argument.

So if we would have to separate NATURAL effects like this from the weirding.

But the point is --- THERE is a NATURAL temperature forcing of the Ocean temp MEAN. It should cause the same magnitude effect of the earth gotting hotter (and they are additive of course).. So why doesn't Hansen just TELL US how many major storms to expect if he KNOWS where the mean is gonna be??

 

[Trakar]

Again, your rant is without support, largely incorrect, and completely with relevance to this thread's topic.

As the graphs I provided, which you conveniently ignored show, the premise of your own OP are with out support and largely incorrect. There is no increased frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change.

Drawings copied from a blog do not represent rigorous or compelling scientific evidences.

Drawings copied from a blog, that have nothing to do with adapting to the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events currently and into the future, are irrelevant and off-topic to the OP and the discussion in this thread.

Your ranting conspiracy theories about mainstream science and politics continue to be off-topic and irrelevant to this thread.

I appreciate the fervor of your beliefs and convictions, but what you offer to this discussion, thus far, is without merit or relevance to the discussion of this thread.

 

[Trakar]

Here's what I'm talking about..

(Don't ask me about the weird vertical normalization for "major hurricanes". That plot is NOT number of them, but has been crunched to be the probability or variance of them for some odd reason..) I would like to see NUMBER of major storms RAW because when your calculating the probability of ONE occurrence in a down season, it gets iffy..

The effect of AMO on hurricanes is a NATURAL effect.. And there SEEMS to be a relationship with number of major hurricanes (maybe). Not neccessarily TOTAL storms. For some reason, that's harder to find or is buried because it hurts the Global Weirding argument.

So if we would have to separate NATURAL effects like this from the weirding.

But the point is --- THERE is a NATURAL temperature forcing of the Ocean temp MEAN. It should cause the same magnitude effect of the earth gotting hotter (and they are additive of course).. So why doesn't Hansen just TELL US how many major storms to expect if he KNOWS where the mean is gonna be??

Not sure what you are trying to illustrate here, as the only bit of the graph that even demonstrates a weak correlation of any strength is over the 1990-2000 decade. The correlation over the entire century period is inconsistent and statistically very nearly non-existent.

I'm not sure on how you are tying this in with the thread's topic of adapting to the changes we are already witnessing and the best available science indicates will continue to increase over the coming centuries, but would be interested in seeing the connections you are trying to make.

 

[flacaltenn]

Here's what I'm talking about..

(Don't ask me about the weird vertical normalization for "major hurricanes". That plot is NOT number of them, but has been crunched to be the probability or variance of them for some odd reason..) I would like to see NUMBER of major storms RAW because when your calculating the probability of ONE occurrence in a down season, it gets iffy..

The effect of AMO on hurricanes is a NATURAL effect.. And there SEEMS to be a relationship with number of major hurricanes (maybe). Not neccessarily TOTAL storms. For some reason, that's harder to find or is buried because it hurts the Global Weirding argument.

So if we would have to separate NATURAL effects like this from the weirding.

But the point is --- THERE is a NATURAL temperature forcing of the Ocean temp MEAN. It should cause the same magnitude effect of the earth gotting hotter (and they are additive of course).. So why doesn't Hansen just TELL US how many major storms to expect if he KNOWS where the mean is gonna be??

Not sure what you are trying to illustrate here, as the only bit of the graph that even demonstrates a weak correlation of any strength is over the 1990-2000 decade. The correlation over the entire century period is inconsistent and statistically very nearly non-existent.

I'm not sure on how you are tying this in with the thread's topic of adapting to the changes we are already witnessing and the best available science indicates will continue to increase over the coming centuries, but would be interested in seeing the connections you are trying to make.

Exactly, remind me to thank-you for playing..

The point was carried from a previous post where I opined that we should be able to MEASURE the effect of one or two degrees on storm formation and intensity.. Without all this primal dancing and magic incants.

So if you LOOK at the effect of a PDO or AMO where the ocean surface cyclically warms in Hurricane alley, it should show an OBVIOUS effect --- dontchathink.. And instead neither you or me can discern a seriously real effect from that experiment..

NOT FINDING a convincing cause/effect should give you some pause on this "Global Weirding" incarnation.

We need to KNOW what the effect of 1degC is on a thunderstorm or hurricane or low pressure area.. Seems like knowing the "extremes" would be so much more "scientific".

 

[SSDD]

Exactly, remind me to thank-you for playing..

The point was carried from a previous post where I opined that we should be able to MEASURE the effect of one or two degrees on storm formation and intensity.. Without all this primal dancing and magic incants.

So if you LOOK at the effect of a PDO or AMO where the ocean surface cyclically warms in Hurricane alley, it should show an OBVIOUS effect --- dontchathink.. And instead neither you or me can discern a seriously real effect from that experiment..

NOT FINDING a convincing cause/effect should give you some pause on this "Global Weirding" incarnation.

We need to KNOW what the effect of 1degC is on a thunderstorm or hurricane or low pressure area.. Seems like knowing the "extremes" would be so much more "scientific".

Never fails. When the topic is AGW pseudoscience, they pretend to be experts who have a working knowledge of the science....when you show them some actual science and even point out the conclusions that might be drawn from it you get a blank stare usually accompanied by a follow up comment that is completely off topic.

 

[skookerasbil]

Well, Steve, you are living in the bore of the shotgun. Over the next decade you will see some real interesting extremes.

Point out something...any weather at all that is unprecedented.

The shotgun bore exists only in your festered imagination. How long before you open your eyes and see that your threats and warnings are meaningless babble that have no relation to the real world?

LOL. Thus far, in stating an immenant danger, I am two for two with Steve. You see, the warming of the gulf stream and the parking of the blocking highs at Greenland is beginning to look like a pattern.

Ray.....I concur you may well be correct. But for how long? Nobody can know, thus, what are the policy responses and are they even feasible?

Ray.....I look at this world of ours far differently than when we first met on here. For me, its no longer about this struggle of ideologies and who is going to win out......thats the ruse they want us to believe......the sheep. Someday Ray.....go back and read your Plato, "The Allegory of the Cave". I missed that completely 30 years ago.......its been going on for centuries. Alot of what we'e seen in our lifetimes Ray.......much of it scripted......and more than ever, nothing is going to change because the masses are all caught up in the matrix, and now more than ever with this stupid-phone technology. Indeed.....there are things in this world that the big boys pull all the strings on. For better or worse, significant policy change in the area of energy is never coming in our lifetimes and cant see it for the rest of this century save for a monumental technology breakthrough.( lol.....that they probably already have too!!!!)

 

[skookerasbil]

Chronology of Extreme Weather

 

[SSDD]

Drawings copied from a blog do not represent rigorous or compelling scientific evidences.

Actually, they are graphs provided by a climate scientist to congress but one wouldn't really expect you to know such things.

The fact is that extremes are no more frequent today than they have ever been but the coverage that a 24 hour news cycle provides could easily fool those who are more than willing to be fooled.

 

[skookerasbil]

The Fantasy of Extreme Weather | Behind The Black


The "extreme weather" thing is a gigantic hoax.......just a new bomb throwing tactic by the environmental nutters to try and freak people out.


Go up on this page and click on "Chronology of Extreme Weather" link........you read that and would feel stupid you ever bought the whole extreme weather concept. In fact, once you get over the shock, you'll laugh your ass off every time you see the media pushing this charade!!

 

[editec]

Nah..ain't no extremes going on.

Everything is honky-dory.

Obey Consume Sleep​

 

[SSDD]

Nah..ain't no extremes going on.

Everything is honky-dory.​

Are the horrors you describe something new and unprecedented or just more of what mother nature has been throwing at whatever lives on this rock since life first began. The issue isn't whether the weather is good or bad or the climate is good or bad. The issue is whether man's activities are responsible and there isn't a whit of evidence to support the claim that we are.​

 

[skookerasbil]

The bomb throwing with the drought is the most laughable of all bomb throwing stunts. One look back at maps going back 100 years and you see mega drought every few years. Ive posted them up quite a few number of times.....cant be bothered.

To be sure....anybody who truly thinks that recent drought is some kind of weird phenonema is a bonafide mental case.

 

[skookerasbil]

Well.....turns out I couldn't help myself........and what can I say. Ive spent the better part of 30 years now publically humiliating far left mental case jackasses.

Why stop now??




Relatively speaking........2013 is laughable on the scale.

 

[mamooth]

It has to be humiliating to declare 2013 as a benchmark ... when it's still 2013. How'd 2012 turn out? What's that, horrific drought across the nation, on par with the dust bowl? At my house, in freakin' Indiana, 60 days of 100F temps and zero rain. Everything that wasn't watered died. That had never happened before in anyone's lifetime there.

But then, skook is immune to humiliation, being every single thing he posts is worthy of it. He seems to actually get off on being humiliated. What else can explain his ongoing massive retardated spam campaigns?

 

[westwall]

Since NOAA, USGS, and NASA all disagree with you, not to mention Swiss Re and Munich Re, I think your graphs don't represent reality.

Yes, I'd go with insurance companies who get to charge you money for nothing too? I do find your blindness to corporate fraud quite simply amazing olfraud. You really are a super trooper for the Big Oil and other Corporations who will make trillions of dollars if their (and your) schemes ever come to pass.

 

[westwall]

It has to be humiliating to declare 2013 as a benchmark ... when it's still 2013. How'd 2012 turn out? What's that, horrific drought across the nation, on par with the dust bowl? At my house, in freakin' Indiana, 60 days of 100F temps and zero rain. Everything that wasn't watered died. That had never happened before in anyone's lifetime there.

But then, skook is immune to humiliation, being every single thing he posts is worthy of it. He seems to actually get off on being humiliated. What else can explain his ongoing massive retardated spam campaigns?

You might want to do some research on that to save your ass..... Then again, you're stupid so you probably won't.

 

[flacaltenn]

It has to be humiliating to declare 2013 as a benchmark ... when it's still 2013. How'd 2012 turn out? What's that, horrific drought across the nation, on par with the dust bowl? At my house, in freakin' Indiana, 60 days of 100F temps and zero rain. Everything that wasn't watered died. That had never happened before in anyone's lifetime there.

But then, skook is immune to humiliation, being every single thing he posts is worthy of it. He seems to actually get off on being humiliated. What else can explain his ongoing massive retardated spam campaigns?

REALLY? I'm confused Mamooth.. Editec just posted the Govt Drought map for mid-June (a couple posts up) and ALL of Indiana is normal.. Are govt drought maps that inaccurate? Should we believe they don't KNOW that your house is even in a MILD Drought?

Who's pulling my legs here. You, Editec or the National Drought Monitoring Agency??

Snatched from Editec ....

OMG --- give those folks a call TODAY --- Will Ya???​

 

[skookerasbil]

It has to be humiliating to declare 2013 as a benchmark ... when it's still 2013. How'd 2012 turn out? What's that, horrific drought across the nation, on par with the dust bowl? At my house, in freakin' Indiana, 60 days of 100F temps and zero rain. Everything that wasn't watered died. That had never happened before in anyone's lifetime there.

But then, skook is immune to humiliation, being every single thing he posts is worthy of it. He seems to actually get off on being humiliated. What else can explain his ongoing massive retardated spam campaigns?

Ummmm....is it me, or does anybody else see a wee bit of orange on these maps going back decades and decades??!!







Sweetie.....do you have a plate in your head?

 

[skookerasbil]

LOL.....when the public humiliation stupid meter goes off the dial, its amazing how suddenly the k00ks flee the thread!!

 

[mamooth]

REALLY? I'm confused Mamooth..

That's an understatement. Apparently, something as simple as the difference between "2012" and "2013" escapes you.

Here's a hint. The summer of 2012 is over. The summer of 2012 would be when the record drought covered Indiana and over half the nation. A June 2013 drought map does not show 2012 conditions.

Here, let me help you out some more ...