Fears of a Chinese attack on Taiwan are growing, and Taiwan isn't sure who would help if it happened

[Unkotare]

Do you want to say, that Republic of China is not China?
...

Taiwan is independent, and every rational actor realizes this regardless of what little diplomatic bullshit nations choose to participate in.

 

[Mushroom]

Does Xi pay you by personal check, or do you Venmo?

Some people have a problem with "cause and effect". They have very one-dimensional thinking, and can't see past an event and at what the reaction would be.

"Taiwan is part of China! China wants it back, will get it back, so anything they do is alright!"

Well, to that I have a simple answer. Taiwan broke away over 70 years ago now. They are not part of China, no more than Pakistan is part of India. In fact, Taiwan became an independent nation only two years after Pakistan broke away from India. Yet nobody thinks Pakistan is still part of India and should be returned.

That to me shows the instability in the thinking of China, and their biggest problem. They think that what they want they should get, because they are China. They slaughtered their own people and ran them over with tanks in 1989, then seemed upset when the world condemned them. And over 30 years later they still do not get it. And someday, unless they learn that will bite them in the ass.

 

[Mushroom]

Taiwan is independent, and every rational actor realizes this regardless of what little diplomatic bullshit nations choose to participate in.

Exactly. And in the event that the PRC ever made a strong military move against ROC, I expect that most nations would very quickly be strongly reconsidering their "One China Policy", and reverting back to a "Two China Policy".

 

[Silver Cat]

Taiwan is independent, and every rational actor realizes this regardless of what little diplomatic bullshit nations choose to participate in.

De facto it is an independent part of China, but it is still China. As well as Lancashire and Yorkshire both were parts of England even in time of Wars of the Roses.

 

[Mushroom]

That to me shows the instability in the thinking of China, and their biggest problem. They think that what they want they should get, because they are China. They slaughtered their own people and ran them over with tanks in 1989, then seemed upset when the world condemned them. And over 30 years later they still do not get it. And someday, unless they learn that will bite them in the ass.

And to show how that worked out in the past, one only has to look at the past century.

In WWII, the three main Axis Powers all thought that "might makes right". And that they had the right to conquer other countries and absorb them into themselves simply because it was "their right", and they had the power to do so no matter what other nations thought.

When Italy tried it in Africa, most of the world largely sat back and did little. But then Germany got bold and tried the same thing, and that time they did react. They thought that territory that had belonged to them a hundred or more years earlier was rightfully theirs, and went to war to take it. Then a couple of years later Japan tried the exact same thing. And by then, most of the world was unified in this opposition militarily.

And what was the end result? Well, that is easy to see. Germany is not ruling over Poland, Italy is not ruling over Ethiopia, and Japan does not have it's "Co-Prosperity Sphere". In fact, the last time a nation tried such a bold move was in 1990, when Iraq invaded then annexed Kuwait. And we all know how that turned out. Even nations that at one time had somewhat supported Iraq (or opposed those against it) turned their back on them. Heck, even nations that were outright hostile to the US (which was the main mover in the Coalition) told Iraq to get the hell out of Kuwait.

I actually shook my head and laughed when even "Gadaffi Duck" in Libya told "Mad Dash Saddam" he needed to get the hell out of Kuwait, and that he would get his ass kicked if he did not. Colonel Muammar was never exactly stable himself, but he had learned that trying to defy the US and the rest of the world was stupid, and it was better most times to at least pretend to go along with international consensus. And each time he tried to go against it, it cost him. Ultimately getting facial reconstructive surgery via hand grenade, then a proctological examination with a bayonet.

The "world opinion" will accept some things from a despotic leadership, but eventually there is a line that once crossed can never be un-crossed..

 

[Mushroom]

As well as Lancashire and Yorkshire both were parts of England even in time of Wars of the Roses.

And Pakistan was once part of India. Most of the Middle East was once part of Turkey. Most of Southern Europe and even Northern Africa was once part of Rome.

The ROC broke away in 1949. The last time I looked, that was 72 years ago. China lost all rights to even claim it was part of their nation 71 years ago. Their trying to claim rights over Taiwan today is as stupid as if Argentina once again tried to militarily force the issue that they rightfully should rule over the Mavinas Islands. Or that the UK should get Pakistan, India, and Belize back.

 

[Circe]

I think Russia has first dibs on overrunning territory ---- Ukraine in January. August or January, only two times war can be fought in Ukraine because of the mud problem. Boy, do they have a lot of mud.

So I'm thinking Ukraine re-joins Russia in January, and China to re-take Taiwan in the summer. Anyone agree?

 

[Circe]

And Pakistan was once part of India. Most of the Middle East was once part of Turkey. Most of Southern Europe and even Northern Africa was once part of Rome.

The ROC broke away in 1949. The last time I looked, that was 72 years ago. China lost all rights to even claim it was part of their nation 71 years ago. Their trying to claim rights over Taiwan today is as stupid as if Argentina once again tried to militarily force the issue that they rightfully should rule over the Mavinas Islands.

You could say the same of us and Cuba, but it didn't stop Teddy Roosevelt.

Or Kennedy either, though he lost.

Kennedy didn't (quite) lose Cuba when Russia tried taking it over, however. That's how China feels about our influence in Taiwan. Hostile. We would not let Russia take Cuba and set up nukes pointed at us; China won't let us continue to influence Taiwan. The so-called One China policy is a clue that we've long since given up.

 

[Silver Cat]

Exactly. And in the event that the PRC ever made a strong military move against ROC, I expect that most nations would very quickly be strongly reconsidering their "One China Policy", and reverting back to a "Two China Policy".

The moral condemanation is a bad defense against a nuclear blackmail. Therefore DPP will surrender to avoid real devastation and Taiwan will be almost peacefully reunited with the continental part of China.
What then? Will Biden's Administration tell about "Two China Policy" when de facto there will be only one China?

 

[Mushroom]

You could say the same of us and Cuba, but it didn't stop Teddy Roosevelt.

Or Kennedy either, though he lost.

Kennedy didn't (quite) lose Cuba when Russia tried taking it over, however. That's how China feels about our influence in Taiwan. Hostile. We would not let Russia take Cuba and set up nukes pointed at us; China won't let us continue to influence Taiwan. The so-called One China policy is a clue that we've long since given up.

Wow, trying to even see what you are trying to say in this mess, and it is hard to find an actual thread.

Please let me know when you can actually put that into a form that is understandable.

 

[Mushroom]

The moral condemanation is a bad defense against a nuclear blackmail. Therefore DPP will surrender to avoid real devastation and Taiwan will be almost peacefully reunited with the continental part of China.

Oh goodness, do you actually believe that?

You really are delusional. "China got nukes! Taiwan scared! Taiwan return to its rightful place because China got nukes!"

And what, the DPP will surrender? You are aware they are just a political party, right? So saying that is about as moronic as saying "The Democrats will surrender and allow the PRC to conquer the ROC".

 

[Silver Cat]

And Pakistan was once part of India. Most of the Middle East was once part of Turkey. Most of Southern Europe and even Northern Africa was once part of Rome.

The ROC broke away in 1949. The last time I looked, that was 72 years ago. China lost all rights to even claim it was part of their nation 71 years ago. Their trying to claim rights over Taiwan today is as stupid as if Argentina once again tried to militarily force the issue that they rightfully should rule over the Mavinas Islands. Or that the UK should get Pakistan, India, and Belize back.

Actually, both sides (RoC and PRC) pretend to be the only legitimate power in the whole China. Something like North and South Koreas, or North and South Vietnam before the war.

 

[Mushroom]

Actually, both sides (RoC and PRC) pretend to be the only legitimate power in the whole China

Actually, no it does not. Back in 1991, President Lee Teng-hui quite clearly stated that the CCP was the undisputed leadership over Mainland China.

That was only like 30 years ago. The ROC has not tried to claim they were the rightful leaders of Mainland China since Chiang Kai-shek was in charge.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Taiwan would kick their ass

They have done nothing but prepare for a Chinese attack for 70 years. They have a modern air force, submarines, anti ship missiles, mines, SAMs.......all set to sink a Chinese invasion force

But they have a finite amount of those things. And China doesn't value human life the way you and I do. They would happily throw human cannon fodder at Taiwan's defenses, until they are depleted.

 

[Silver Cat]

Oh goodness, do you actually believe that?

You really are delusional. "China got nukes! Taiwan scared! Taiwan return to its rightful place because China got nukes!"

And what, the DPP will surrender? You are aware they are just a political party, right? So saying that is about as moronic as saying "The Democrats will surrender and allow the PRC to conquer the ROC".

I didn't say, that DPP are scared because of existence of the Chinese nukes. They will be scared if PRC demonstratively use it against RoC forces (may be as an answer to some kind of provocation or false flag operation) to demonstrate their decisiveness, and more than scared, if the USA don't nuke PRC, too.

 

[rightwinger]

But they have a finite amount of those things. And China doesn't value human life the way you and I do. They would happily throw human cannon fodder at Taiwan's defenses, until they are depleted.

The China of the 50s would have done that

Today’s China is more modern and their population would not tolerate such a massacre.
More importantly, the Chinese manufacturing would not tolerate the loss of profit from resulting embargos

 

[Colin norris]

I predicted a massive shift in global influence if Trump lost in 2020. My thinking was that Europe and Asian nations will watch to see if America remains focused on expanding their influence and projecting capitalism, or, if it will become just another socialist nation looking to control their domestic citizens. One of many nations that is incapable of stopping China from doing as it pleases. While U.S corporations and their political pals pretend their greed didn't destroy the U.S

After Hong Kong was taken back so easily, while the Brits were so focused on Russia (and appeasement of them, though they'd never admit this when their intel thought sending missiles to Ukraine was a bad idea) and pushing this narrative in the U.S (much to the pleasure of China), the CCP were expanding and eying how to topple the U.S and Western democracy.

How lucky could they be to see the U.S embroiled in terror in the M.E, then Russia in Crimea, and then an aggressive global effort to usurp the most pro-American president in many peoples lifetime, all while China expanded and laughed?

If Taiwan falls to China, America will go from Super Power to Middle Power almost overnight. Just as Canada went from Middle Power to Little Power in a generation (again, thanks to appeasing of China). The world will be drastically tilted to China and Russia and the new global supremacy. Their influence and outreach will be without limits at that point.

Fears of a Chinese attack on Taiwan are growing, and Taiwan isn't sure who would help if it happened

"This problem is much closer to us than most think," the new head of US Indo-Pacific Command said in March.

ca.news.yahoo.com

Benjamin Brimelow
Mon., May 3, 2021, 8:54 a.m.·8 min read

A concrete bunker and anti-landing barricades on a beach facing the Chinese city of Xamen, on the Taiwanese island of Little Kinmen, April 20, 2018. Carl Court/Getty Images

• China has been expanding its influence and taking a more aggressive posture toward Taiwan.
• That has raised concerns that Beijing will attempt to retake the island by force.
• Whether the US and other countries would help, and what help they would offer, remains in doubt.
• See more stories on Insider's business page.

Twenty-five years ago, two US Navy carrier strike groups were enough to deter possible Chinese military action against Taiwan after China launched missiles that landed a few dozen miles off its coast.
Now, after a massive modernization effort by China's military, known as the People's Liberation Army, or PLA, two carrier strike groups, and possibly US forces alone, may not be enough.
This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear if it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes.
In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, then head of US Indo-Pacific Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that China could invade Taiwan in the next six years.
A few days later, Adm. John Aquilino, Davidson's successor, declined to comment on that assessment but said that China views Taiwan "as their No. 1 priority" and that, in his opinion, "this problem is much closer to us than most think."

I'm pleased you got that off your chest.
America has been relegated to a middle power already. China aren't concerned about America over Taiwan. They will take it when they want.


Hong Kong was leased by Britain and the lease expired. China then took it up as per the agreement. There was no war or military takeover.

 

[Silver Cat]

Actually, no it does not. Back in 1991, President Lee Teng-hui quite clearly stated that the CCP was the undisputed leadership over Mainland China.

That was only like 30 years ago. The ROC has not tried to claim they were the rightful leaders of Mainland China since Chiang Kai-shek was in charge.

The President may say whatever he wants. But they didn't change their Constitution.

 

[Unkotare]

.....And China doesn't value human life the way you and I do. .....

The CCP doesnt. The Chinese people are people just like "you and I."

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Today’s China is more modern and their population would not tolerate such a massacre.

That's the problem: they would not know about it. Chinese control; of information is very effective.

They seem to 'tolerate' genocide and slave labor of their fellow countrymen every single day already.