shockedcanadian
Diamond Member
- Aug 6, 2012
- 30,119
- 27,388
This may be the most critical election in nearly a century. The chances of WWIII are higher than people appreciate.
First, I have no doubt that China and Iran want Harris to win as does Ukraine and a few in the E.U who are ignorant to the economic limitations America is facing and selfishly enjoy America footing the bill, feeling no pressure to contribute more themselves if Harris were to win.
Japan, England, Australia and Taiwan would prefer Trump. Russia will lean Trump also only because they see the potential of an off ramp which they currently don't have. Putin views Trump as a mixed bag of more of a peacemaker but also quite unpredictable.
Pros and cons of both candidates:
Trump provides demands of allies that will ensure that Russia only receives the minimum in any negotiation. It won't be immediate as Trump promises, this isn't an Iranian hostage situation a la 1981.
Trump will sell loads of weapons to Taiwan and hit China with tariffs, focusing on weakening their economic influence while demanding they consume American goods. China will work to ride out the Trump final term. A Trump/Vance battery facing China may be similar to Reagan/Bush facing Russia.
Iran will be cut off of all finances and will
Trumps deficiencies will be an "transactional attitude" which may solve problems but won't necessarily increase liberty or U.S Values. If he and Vance can promote America in the manner Reagan did, he could alter this view.
He also overestimates personal negotiations with leaders when he needs to assign the best advisers and listen to them when assessing his adversaries motives.
Here is how I would see a Harris presidency. She will not look for a peaceful solution in Ukraine, might even fund it excessively to the point that Ukraine is out of soldiers and Putin would fear losing and ramp it up realizing it is take Ukraine or risk losing his power. Currently they hundreds of thousands of reserve troops and are ramping up production of weapons and even tanks, something they weren't doing at the start of the war.
Much of this thanks to China, N Korea and Iran who have been assisting Russia seeing an opportunity to overextend America.
This probably results in Europe sending boots into Ukraine out of necessity (which I don't think is a horrible idea if there isn't any alternative such as a reasonable agreement) keeping the war at a stalemate but also incentivizing China to gear up after a century of feeling humiliated.
Iran and N Korea will engage in decoy campaigns before China attacks Taiwan days or even hours before China going into Taiwan. N Korea may test a nuke, fire on S Korea etc and keep Americas attention occupied.
As usual, Europe not feeling pressure from the U.S leadership will not be prepared for a wider war so the U.S will desperately rely on Japan and even the Philippines while Europe tries to help in Ukraine with their limited and grossly undermanned military (thanks Merkel).
Ultimately America will have to come to Taiwans defense to defend against the severe and lengthy economic depression that would follow if China takes over Taiwan and controls the chain of islands fully. Russia will assist China in Taiwan realizing that Ukraine and their Europeans allies can't make ground in Ukraine and merging a new ally.
Europe, Asia, N America, Middle East all in major and direct combat, Hence WWIII.
Now, Harris might be able to avert a war except that these world leaders have a lengthy and deep understanding of Harris and her orbit, especially since she is from California. China probably has a long dossier on her and Newsom. California and New York have been their playground.
The best chance for Harris to avoid WWIII would be to essentially bribe China through plenty of business and climate change profiteering, at the expense of U.S manufacturing. This will only ensure that the day China does attack they will be in an even better advantageous military and economic position as America continues to be poisoned by an open border and wages remain suppressed, for democracy of course.
Her positives is that she is an Establishment choice, so she will have plenty of Harvard graduates and career D.C politicians to advise her. This will mean she would have a library of information.
Unfortunately, barring a drastic shift in the patriotism and competence of many of these men and women, she will be getting advice from those who have been wrong about far too many decisions over the last 30+ years.
This is the real Wildcard in her term. Can we trust the lifetime politicians and agencies who have either been stymied, infiltrated or incompetent for too long a period of time?
She won't see any critical danger with Americas decline just as Obama didn't as long as her terms avoids a full blown war. Kicking the can down the road while China becomes stronger at the U.S expense..
A weak America will spell doom for the world and I would even suggest that winning WWIII with todays technology and preparedness of the enemy will be far more difficult than winning WWII was.
We don't even know what everyone has in the can in terms of A.I and this includes what America certainly has in storage if the need emerges.
As an example, Hezbollah is even threatening to use EMP weapons today, imagine what they will have and use in 3-4 years? Technology is too strong at the moment and thus WWIII is far from an assured outcome.
First, I have no doubt that China and Iran want Harris to win as does Ukraine and a few in the E.U who are ignorant to the economic limitations America is facing and selfishly enjoy America footing the bill, feeling no pressure to contribute more themselves if Harris were to win.
Japan, England, Australia and Taiwan would prefer Trump. Russia will lean Trump also only because they see the potential of an off ramp which they currently don't have. Putin views Trump as a mixed bag of more of a peacemaker but also quite unpredictable.
Pros and cons of both candidates:
Trump provides demands of allies that will ensure that Russia only receives the minimum in any negotiation. It won't be immediate as Trump promises, this isn't an Iranian hostage situation a la 1981.
Trump will sell loads of weapons to Taiwan and hit China with tariffs, focusing on weakening their economic influence while demanding they consume American goods. China will work to ride out the Trump final term. A Trump/Vance battery facing China may be similar to Reagan/Bush facing Russia.
Iran will be cut off of all finances and will
Trumps deficiencies will be an "transactional attitude" which may solve problems but won't necessarily increase liberty or U.S Values. If he and Vance can promote America in the manner Reagan did, he could alter this view.
He also overestimates personal negotiations with leaders when he needs to assign the best advisers and listen to them when assessing his adversaries motives.
Here is how I would see a Harris presidency. She will not look for a peaceful solution in Ukraine, might even fund it excessively to the point that Ukraine is out of soldiers and Putin would fear losing and ramp it up realizing it is take Ukraine or risk losing his power. Currently they hundreds of thousands of reserve troops and are ramping up production of weapons and even tanks, something they weren't doing at the start of the war.
Much of this thanks to China, N Korea and Iran who have been assisting Russia seeing an opportunity to overextend America.
This probably results in Europe sending boots into Ukraine out of necessity (which I don't think is a horrible idea if there isn't any alternative such as a reasonable agreement) keeping the war at a stalemate but also incentivizing China to gear up after a century of feeling humiliated.
Iran and N Korea will engage in decoy campaigns before China attacks Taiwan days or even hours before China going into Taiwan. N Korea may test a nuke, fire on S Korea etc and keep Americas attention occupied.
As usual, Europe not feeling pressure from the U.S leadership will not be prepared for a wider war so the U.S will desperately rely on Japan and even the Philippines while Europe tries to help in Ukraine with their limited and grossly undermanned military (thanks Merkel).
Ultimately America will have to come to Taiwans defense to defend against the severe and lengthy economic depression that would follow if China takes over Taiwan and controls the chain of islands fully. Russia will assist China in Taiwan realizing that Ukraine and their Europeans allies can't make ground in Ukraine and merging a new ally.
Europe, Asia, N America, Middle East all in major and direct combat, Hence WWIII.
Now, Harris might be able to avert a war except that these world leaders have a lengthy and deep understanding of Harris and her orbit, especially since she is from California. China probably has a long dossier on her and Newsom. California and New York have been their playground.
The best chance for Harris to avoid WWIII would be to essentially bribe China through plenty of business and climate change profiteering, at the expense of U.S manufacturing. This will only ensure that the day China does attack they will be in an even better advantageous military and economic position as America continues to be poisoned by an open border and wages remain suppressed, for democracy of course.
Her positives is that she is an Establishment choice, so she will have plenty of Harvard graduates and career D.C politicians to advise her. This will mean she would have a library of information.
Unfortunately, barring a drastic shift in the patriotism and competence of many of these men and women, she will be getting advice from those who have been wrong about far too many decisions over the last 30+ years.
This is the real Wildcard in her term. Can we trust the lifetime politicians and agencies who have either been stymied, infiltrated or incompetent for too long a period of time?
She won't see any critical danger with Americas decline just as Obama didn't as long as her terms avoids a full blown war. Kicking the can down the road while China becomes stronger at the U.S expense..
A weak America will spell doom for the world and I would even suggest that winning WWIII with todays technology and preparedness of the enemy will be far more difficult than winning WWII was.
We don't even know what everyone has in the can in terms of A.I and this includes what America certainly has in storage if the need emerges.
As an example, Hezbollah is even threatening to use EMP weapons today, imagine what they will have and use in 3-4 years? Technology is too strong at the moment and thus WWIII is far from an assured outcome.
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