itfitzme
VIP Member
let's just look at two factors, solar and CO2.
people have always know that the sun is the biggest factor in determining the conditions on earth. once Hershel noticed there was a correlation between sunspots and wheat production we started to look for ways of quantifying it. proxy records suggest that there is a 0.7 correlation over the last few thousand years, which in turn suggests half the variance. lately we have better equipment to measure the solar input but typically just use the general TSI. we do not know the temperature neutral point of TSI. it is likely that the majority of the 20th century was above that point on average, leading to rising temps. in my own opinion an extra watt of TSI is much more capable of actually changing terrestrial conditions because it is highly ordered and high energy, as opposed to the nearly useless backradiation that cannot do much of anything besides counteract outgoing surface radiation.
CO2 has a poor correlation over long periods, eg the last 5000 years has seen a slow drop in temps even as CO2 has slowly increased. of course mankind has disturbed the natural amount of CO2 and that is a wildcard. even looking at the correlation of CO2/temp is difficult because temperature is also affecting CO2 concentration by causing it to be released from the oceans.
when you, itfitzme, take a simple correlation between CO2 and temp, but only over the last hundred years, and declare that it is responsible for 78.xxx percent of the temperature rise, you are fooling yourself and doing a disservice to others by saying your incomplete understanding is true because you can put math equations on the table.
there are many other factors besides solar and CO2. water in its many forms being one of the important ones. when you discount the other factors, and then compound your error by adding the discounted variance from the other factors into the CO2 variance it is properly called fraud.
No I'm not. I am recognizing that the 5000 year curve has discontinuities. Thr discontinuities indicated that something significamt changed. I'm doing a piecewise analysis based on recognizining where and what significantly changed.
I can do the same thing with gasoline prices. Real dollar gasoline prices were basically flat, going up with inflation, until about 1998. That was when China started ramping up in GDP growth on exports, production fueled by using fossil fuels. It is just that simple.
And I didn't stop at CO2 with 74%, I added in solar, el nino, volcano, sulfates, and ozone. As expected, with a muktivariate analysis, the R^2 for CO2 diminishes, as does the residual variance, as the others start picking up more and more of the variability in anomoly.
Calling it fraud deserves a fuck you.
I didn't charge money. It is how it is done, standard practice, and it is right. I haven't done the confidence interval for the slope. You can do that yourself. Like I said, I didn't get paid ti do it.
So fuck you. Or are we to accuse SSaDhD of fraud and lying for completely mangling SLoT?
Yourwork attributed most of the variance to CO2 and the rest of the variance to other GHGs. It should be easy to find, you spamed the board and various threads with it repeatedly.
No, you will find I updated it with additional info as I improved it. I started with a simple linear estimate of the time based extention. Then I added the regression. Then I added the multivariate when I found that. I simply improved the presentation as I found new graphics or revised the text.
That or when someones post warrented the exact same response. Why would I retype the same thing over again?
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