How well does the GOP have to do with Hispanics to win the WH in 2016?

[Bruce_T_Laney]

How well must GOP do among Hispanics to win in 2016?

The GOP has a huge mountain to climb to win the Hispanic vote, and Trump is not making it easier. It is just incredible that all the work that the GOP has done to enlarge its base has been undone by Trump in just a few months.

Trump supporters really do not care if they lose the Hispanic vote.

Note: I am not a supporter of Trump and believe if the GOP does not flush him soon they will not be able to save their chances to win this next November.

Obama won re-election in 2012 by 3,013,769

Obama 61,208,082 50.5% Popular Votes
Romney 58,194,313 48.0% Popular Vote 119,402,395 2.5%

2012 Primary Election Results: President
ethnic of total Obama Romney
White-American 39% 59%
African-American 93% 7%
Latin-American 71% 27%
Asian-American 71% 27%

Ethnic % of total votes Total votes Obama votes Romney
White-American 72% 44,069,819 17,187,229 26,001,193
African-American 13% 7,957,051 7,400,057 556,994
Latin-American 10% 6,120,808 4,345,774 1,652,618
Asian-American 3% 1,836,242 1,303,732 495,785
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

any conservatives from the outset urged the Republican Party not to go with Romney, figuring he was another moderate Republican destined to lose -- like John McCain.
McCain Beats Romney!

So those are the FACTS as to how Obama won re-election by a small margin of 3 million votes.
So all that is needed is the same number of Latin-American voters BUT this time White Americans being so truly embarrassed by voting for Obama
WILL make up the 6 million difference increasing just 14% more White Votes.

We elect by electoral votes NOT popular vote

Ask President Gore, he can explain it to you

I swear these idiots do not understand how elections work and believe the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

These idiots believe that in states with growing Minority populations like Texas will stay red if Trump is the candidate while the reality it will most likely turn blue and give the Democrats another state.

GOP will not win states like California, New York or Illinois with a candidate like Trump, and they could lose states like Texas while at it, but that extra white vote in South Dakota or South Carolina will make them happy while not understanding you need the Electoral College to win!

 

[Redfish]

I believe Redfish when he says he went to Harvard. I also believe he doesn't understand statistics, even if he took the class.

I understand statistics quite well. I also understand that the current polling is designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

When they use a sample of 1000 out of 330,000,000, it is not a statistically valid representative sample. I know that the pollsters claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in their tiny sample. But it is simply not possible. True, some of them make pretty good guesses and some of them are flat out rigged.

you are free to believe them if you like.

If you don't believe them, why did you say earlier that legal Hispanics support Trump and 95% of blacks support the ban on Muslims? Where did you get that information?

I was quoting polls in response to another poster who was quoting polls. I didn't say that I believed them.

But I get it, polls are valid for the left but not for the right.

The truth is that they are not valid for either but we all use them to try to make our points.

 

[Redfish]

How well must GOP do among Hispanics to win in 2016?

The GOP has a huge mountain to climb to win the Hispanic vote, and Trump is not making it easier. It is just incredible that all the work that the GOP has done to enlarge its base has been undone by Trump in just a few months.

Trump supporters really do not care if they lose the Hispanic vote.

Note: I am not a supporter of Trump and believe if the GOP does not flush him soon they will not be able to save their chances to win this next November.

Obama won re-election in 2012 by 3,013,769

Obama 61,208,082 50.5% Popular Votes
Romney 58,194,313 48.0% Popular Vote 119,402,395 2.5%

2012 Primary Election Results: President
ethnic of total Obama Romney
White-American 39% 59%
African-American 93% 7%
Latin-American 71% 27%
Asian-American 71% 27%

Ethnic % of total votes Total votes Obama votes Romney
White-American 72% 44,069,819 17,187,229 26,001,193
African-American 13% 7,957,051 7,400,057 556,994
Latin-American 10% 6,120,808 4,345,774 1,652,618
Asian-American 3% 1,836,242 1,303,732 495,785
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

any conservatives from the outset urged the Republican Party not to go with Romney, figuring he was another moderate Republican destined to lose -- like John McCain.
McCain Beats Romney!

So those are the FACTS as to how Obama won re-election by a small margin of 3 million votes.
So all that is needed is the same number of Latin-American voters BUT this time White Americans being so truly embarrassed by voting for Obama
WILL make up the 6 million difference increasing just 14% more White Votes.

We elect by electoral votes NOT popular vote

Ask President Gore, he can explain it to you

I swear these idiots do not understand how elections work and believe the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

These idiots believe that in states with growing Minority populations like Texas will stay red if Trump is the candidate while the reality it will most likely turn blue and give the Democrats another state.

GOP will not win states like California, New York or Illinois with a candidate like Trump, and they could lose states like Texas while at it, but that extra white vote in South Dakota or South Carolina will make them happy while not understanding you need the Electoral College to win!

Who do you think does not understand the electoral college? Everyone understands how we elect presidents. Your assumption that once a state is red it will always be red. Better ask Mondale about that.

in addition, most of the new minority in TX is illegal and will not be voting. Unless they can get the voter registration cards of some dead Texans, is that what you have in mind?

 

[JimH52]

The hypocrisy of the RW loons on this board. Trumps tells a lie a day and the GOP relies on fear mongering to stay relevant. But you will all deny any knowledge of those facts.

Since you brought up lying. 65% of americans chose "liar" as the first word they would use to describe Hillary Clinton.

Her list of lies is well known and well documented as are Obama's.

Give us a list of Trump's lies, if you can.

Two come to mind right away:

He saw in NJ, with his eyes thousands of Muslims celebrating 911.
PROVEN A LIE

He saw people jumping from Twin Towers from his office window NEARLY FOUR MILES AWAY
IMPOSSIBLE

the muslim celebration quote has been proven true.

I can see 4 miles, sorry if you can't. It was a very clear day and a body against the light background of the building would be visible from 4 miles.

got anything else?

Let me quess. You are Orange also!

here's one from CNN, dipshit

'http://spectator.org/blog/64746/trump-right-cnn-reported-american-muslims-celebrating-911

The authroities have said it was investigated and it turned out to be false. You still needed to go to a lying RW nut job site to find another lie. You are absolutely amazingly slow!

 

[JimH52]

The hypocrisy of the RW loons on this board. Trumps tells a lie a day and the GOP relies on fear mongering to stay relevant. But you will all deny any knowledge of those facts.

Since you brought up lying. 65% of americans chose "liar" as the first word they would use to describe Hillary Clinton.

Her list of lies is well known and well documented as are Obama's.

Give us a list of Trump's lies, if you can.

Two come to mind right away:

He saw in NJ, with his eyes thousands of Muslims celebrating 911.
PROVEN A LIE

He saw people jumping from Twin Towers from his office window NEARLY FOUR MILES AWAY
IMPOSSIBLE

the muslim celebration quote has been proven true.

I can see 4 miles, sorry if you can't. It was a very clear day and a body against the light background of the building would be visible from 4 miles.

got anything else?

The hypocrisy of the RW loons on this board. Trumps tells a lie a day and the GOP relies on fear mongering to stay relevant. But you will all deny any knowledge of those facts.

Since you brought up lying. 65% of americans chose "liar" as the first word they would use to describe Hillary Clinton.

Her list of lies is well known and well documented as are Obama's.

Give us a list of Trump's lies, if you can.

Two come to mind right away:

He saw in NJ, with his eyes thousands of Muslims celebrating 911.
PROVEN A LIE

He saw people jumping from Twin Towers from his office window NEARLY FOUR MILES AWAY
IMPOSSIBLE

the muslim celebration quote has been proven true.

I can see 4 miles, sorry if you can't. It was a very clear day and a body against the light background of the building would be visible from 4 miles.

got anything else?

New information doesn't fix Donald Trump's 9/11 claim

I can post a dozen honest links to each of your RW nutjob links. You cannot see a person falling one mile away, much less four.

You are a liar like your master Donald.

bullshit

http://spectator.org/blog/64746/trump-right-cnn-reported-american-muslims-celebrating-911

PLEASE QUITPOSTING THE SAME LIE FROM THE SAME GARBAGE SITE!

 

[Bruce_T_Laney]

How well must GOP do among Hispanics to win in 2016?

The GOP has a huge mountain to climb to win the Hispanic vote, and Trump is not making it easier. It is just incredible that all the work that the GOP has done to enlarge its base has been undone by Trump in just a few months.

Trump supporters really do not care if they lose the Hispanic vote.

Note: I am not a supporter of Trump and believe if the GOP does not flush him soon they will not be able to save their chances to win this next November.

Obama won re-election in 2012 by 3,013,769

Obama 61,208,082 50.5% Popular Votes
Romney 58,194,313 48.0% Popular Vote 119,402,395 2.5%

2012 Primary Election Results: President
ethnic of total Obama Romney
White-American 39% 59%
African-American 93% 7%
Latin-American 71% 27%
Asian-American 71% 27%

Ethnic % of total votes Total votes Obama votes Romney
White-American 72% 44,069,819 17,187,229 26,001,193
African-American 13% 7,957,051 7,400,057 556,994
Latin-American 10% 6,120,808 4,345,774 1,652,618
Asian-American 3% 1,836,242 1,303,732 495,785
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

any conservatives from the outset urged the Republican Party not to go with Romney, figuring he was another moderate Republican destined to lose -- like John McCain.
McCain Beats Romney!

So those are the FACTS as to how Obama won re-election by a small margin of 3 million votes.
So all that is needed is the same number of Latin-American voters BUT this time White Americans being so truly embarrassed by voting for Obama
WILL make up the 6 million difference increasing just 14% more White Votes.

We elect by electoral votes NOT popular vote

Ask President Gore, he can explain it to you

I swear these idiots do not understand how elections work and believe the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

These idiots believe that in states with growing Minority populations like Texas will stay red if Trump is the candidate while the reality it will most likely turn blue and give the Democrats another state.

GOP will not win states like California, New York or Illinois with a candidate like Trump, and they could lose states like Texas while at it, but that extra white vote in South Dakota or South Carolina will make them happy while not understanding you need the Electoral College to win!

Who do you think does not understand the electoral college? Everyone understands how we elect presidents. Your assumption that once a state is red it will always be red. Better ask Mondale about that.

Better ask Mondale?

Jesus fucking Christ!

read the fucking responses, and if you have a hard time understanding then get a adult to read them to you!

Hispanics and African Americans do not support Trump and to win the national election you need the Hispanic community in Texas to vote GOP because if you do not then you will have it turn blue!

Also ask Gore about losing his own home state which cost him the electoral college you moron!

 

[Redfish]

Since you brought up lying. 65% of americans chose "liar" as the first word they would use to describe Hillary Clinton.

Her list of lies is well known and well documented as are Obama's.

Give us a list of Trump's lies, if you can.

Two come to mind right away:

He saw in NJ, with his eyes thousands of Muslims celebrating 911.
PROVEN A LIE

He saw people jumping from Twin Towers from his office window NEARLY FOUR MILES AWAY
IMPOSSIBLE

the muslim celebration quote has been proven true.

I can see 4 miles, sorry if you can't. It was a very clear day and a body against the light background of the building would be visible from 4 miles.

got anything else?

Let me quess. You are Orange also!

here's one from CNN, dipshit

'http://spectator.org/blog/64746/trump-right-cnn-reported-american-muslims-celebrating-911

The authroities have said it was investigated and it turned out to be false. You still needed to go to a lying RW nut job site to find another lie. You are absolutely amazingly slow!

The "authorities" in the Obama administration? Well whoop de fricken do. There are videos of muslims celebrating 9/11 in the USA, were those all faked?

 

[Redfish]

Since you brought up lying. 65% of americans chose "liar" as the first word they would use to describe Hillary Clinton.

Her list of lies is well known and well documented as are Obama's.

Give us a list of Trump's lies, if you can.

Two come to mind right away:

He saw in NJ, with his eyes thousands of Muslims celebrating 911.
PROVEN A LIE

He saw people jumping from Twin Towers from his office window NEARLY FOUR MILES AWAY
IMPOSSIBLE

the muslim celebration quote has been proven true.

I can see 4 miles, sorry if you can't. It was a very clear day and a body against the light background of the building would be visible from 4 miles.

got anything else?

Since you brought up lying. 65% of americans chose "liar" as the first word they would use to describe Hillary Clinton.

Her list of lies is well known and well documented as are Obama's.

Give us a list of Trump's lies, if you can.

Two come to mind right away:

He saw in NJ, with his eyes thousands of Muslims celebrating 911.
PROVEN A LIE

He saw people jumping from Twin Towers from his office window NEARLY FOUR MILES AWAY
IMPOSSIBLE

the muslim celebration quote has been proven true.

I can see 4 miles, sorry if you can't. It was a very clear day and a body against the light background of the building would be visible from 4 miles.

got anything else?

New information doesn't fix Donald Trump's 9/11 claim

I can post a dozen honest links to each of your RW nutjob links. You cannot see a person falling one mile away, much less four.

You are a liar like your master Donald.

bullshit

http://spectator.org/blog/64746/trump-right-cnn-reported-american-muslims-celebrating-911

PLEASE QUITPOSTING THE SAME LIE FROM THE SAME GARBAGE SITE!

prove it wrong.

 

[Toro]

I believe Redfish when he says he went to Harvard. I also believe he doesn't understand statistics, even if he took the class.

I understand statistics quite well. I also understand that the current polling is designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

When they use a sample of 1000 out of 330,000,000, it is not a statistically valid representative sample. I know that the pollsters claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in their tiny sample. But it is simply not possible. True, some of them make pretty good guesses and some of them are flat out rigged.

you are free to believe them if you like.

If you don't believe them, why did you say earlier that legal Hispanics support Trump and 95% of blacks support the ban on Muslims? Where did you get that information?

I was quoting polls in response to another poster who was quoting polls. I didn't say that I believed them.

But I get it, polls are valid for the left but not for the right.

The truth is that they are not valid for either but we all use them to try to make our points.

You should call the Republican Party, then, and tell them that all the polls they commission are garbage. They might want to know.

 

[Redfish]

Trump supporters really do not care if they lose the Hispanic vote.

Note: I am not a supporter of Trump and believe if the GOP does not flush him soon they will not be able to save their chances to win this next November.

Obama won re-election in 2012 by 3,013,769

Obama 61,208,082 50.5% Popular Votes
Romney 58,194,313 48.0% Popular Vote 119,402,395 2.5%

2012 Primary Election Results: President
ethnic of total Obama Romney
White-American 39% 59%
African-American 93% 7%
Latin-American 71% 27%
Asian-American 71% 27%

Ethnic % of total votes Total votes Obama votes Romney
White-American 72% 44,069,819 17,187,229 26,001,193
African-American 13% 7,957,051 7,400,057 556,994
Latin-American 10% 6,120,808 4,345,774 1,652,618
Asian-American 3% 1,836,242 1,303,732 495,785
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

any conservatives from the outset urged the Republican Party not to go with Romney, figuring he was another moderate Republican destined to lose -- like John McCain.
McCain Beats Romney!

So those are the FACTS as to how Obama won re-election by a small margin of 3 million votes.
So all that is needed is the same number of Latin-American voters BUT this time White Americans being so truly embarrassed by voting for Obama
WILL make up the 6 million difference increasing just 14% more White Votes.

We elect by electoral votes NOT popular vote

Ask President Gore, he can explain it to you

I swear these idiots do not understand how elections work and believe the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

These idiots believe that in states with growing Minority populations like Texas will stay red if Trump is the candidate while the reality it will most likely turn blue and give the Democrats another state.

GOP will not win states like California, New York or Illinois with a candidate like Trump, and they could lose states like Texas while at it, but that extra white vote in South Dakota or South Carolina will make them happy while not understanding you need the Electoral College to win!

Who do you think does not understand the electoral college? Everyone understands how we elect presidents. Your assumption that once a state is red it will always be red. Better ask Mondale about that.

Better ask Mondale?

Jesus fucking Christ!

read the fucking responses, and if you have a hard time understanding then get a adult to read them to you!

Hispanics and African Americans do not support Trump and to win the national election you need the Hispanic community in Texas to vote GOP because if you do not then you will have it turn blue!

Also ask Gore about losing his own home state which cost him the electoral college you moron!

did you miss your valium this morning? chill out, relax.

If Trump gets the GOP nomination and Hillary escapes indictment for violating national security regulations, then we will see in the election how the demographics play out. Its a long time until November 2016.

bantering about it now is interesting but it really means nothing.

 

[Redfish]

I believe Redfish when he says he went to Harvard. I also believe he doesn't understand statistics, even if he took the class.

I understand statistics quite well. I also understand that the current polling is designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

When they use a sample of 1000 out of 330,000,000, it is not a statistically valid representative sample. I know that the pollsters claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in their tiny sample. But it is simply not possible. True, some of them make pretty good guesses and some of them are flat out rigged.

you are free to believe them if you like.

If you don't believe them, why did you say earlier that legal Hispanics support Trump and 95% of blacks support the ban on Muslims? Where did you get that information?

I was quoting polls in response to another poster who was quoting polls. I didn't say that I believed them.

But I get it, polls are valid for the left but not for the right.

The truth is that they are not valid for either but we all use them to try to make our points.

You should call the Republican Party, then, and tell them that all the polls they commission are garbage. They might want to know.

Both the RNC and the DNC already know that. They are playing you. Its a tactic that works so they will keep doing it.

 

[rightwinger]

How well must GOP do among Hispanics to win in 2016?

The GOP has a huge mountain to climb to win the Hispanic vote, and Trump is not making it easier. It is just incredible that all the work that the GOP has done to enlarge its base has been undone by Trump in just a few months.

What work?

What has the gop done to enlarge it's base?

It's war on women? Sure women want to lose their rights and be repressed.

It's war on Hispanics? Sure Hispanics just love the discrimination, being threatened to be deported back to where they came from even though they were born and raised right here in America.

It's war on anyone who doesn't share the gop so called "christian" religion? Sure as a person who isn't christian, jewish or muslim, the decades long war to force their christianity on our whole nation has been lots of fun.

It's war on the middle class and working people? Sure we just love the income equality and being told that we don't matter just because we aren't filthy rich, we can't bankroll anyone's campaign nor can we bribe any politician to write laws that give us better wages and working conditions. That's lots of fun.

There is absolutely nothing that the gop wants to force on our nation that most intelligent people want.

Personally I believe America would be much better off if those people were thrown out of our government and never allowed to return to do more damage to our nation and people.

It comes down to Republicans defining what "real Americans" are. Sarah Palin made millions off of it

Trump is refining it and giving it a face. THEY are the ones who harm us. THEY are the ones to fear. "Real Americans" need me to defend them

 

[rightwinger]

I believe Redfish when he says he went to Harvard. I also believe he doesn't understand statistics, even if he took the class.

I understand statistics quite well. I also understand that the current polling is designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

When they use a sample of 1000 out of 330,000,000, it is not a statistically valid representative sample. I know that the pollsters claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in their tiny sample. But it is simply not possible. True, some of them make pretty good guesses and some of them are flat out rigged.

you are free to believe them if you like.

LOL.....Harvard MBA doesn't understand statistical sampling

'
clearly much better than you do. go to your local library and check out a stat 101 text book, then read about representative sampling, you might learn something.

I fully understand what the pollsters CLAIM. But it does not pass a math test.

Even Harvard MBAs understand that each sample has a margin of error of plus or minus a few percent. To think that a Harvard MBA does not understand that a sample of 1000 can be relevant is embarassing.
Individual samples of 1000 can each be challenged on their standard deviations. However, if repeated individual samples of 1000 are yielding the same results, those samples collectively are more valid

Even a French model like myself understands it

 

[rightwinger]

How well must GOP do among Hispanics to win in 2016?

The GOP has a huge mountain to climb to win the Hispanic vote, and Trump is not making it easier. It is just incredible that all the work that the GOP has done to enlarge its base has been undone by Trump in just a few months.

Trump supporters really do not care if they lose the Hispanic vote.

Note: I am not a supporter of Trump and believe if the GOP does not flush him soon they will not be able to save their chances to win this next November.

Obama won re-election in 2012 by 3,013,769

Obama 61,208,082 50.5% Popular Votes
Romney 58,194,313 48.0% Popular Vote 119,402,395 2.5%

2012 Primary Election Results: President
ethnic of total Obama Romney
White-American 39% 59%
African-American 93% 7%
Latin-American 71% 27%
Asian-American 71% 27%

Ethnic % of total votes Total votes Obama votes Romney
White-American 72% 44,069,819 17,187,229 26,001,193
African-American 13% 7,957,051 7,400,057 556,994
Latin-American 10% 6,120,808 4,345,774 1,652,618
Asian-American 3% 1,836,242 1,303,732 495,785
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

any conservatives from the outset urged the Republican Party not to go with Romney, figuring he was another moderate Republican destined to lose -- like John McCain.
McCain Beats Romney!

So those are the FACTS as to how Obama won re-election by a small margin of 3 million votes.
So all that is needed is the same number of Latin-American voters BUT this time White Americans being so truly embarrassed by voting for Obama
WILL make up the 6 million difference increasing just 14% more White Votes.

We elect by electoral votes NOT popular vote

Ask President Gore, he can explain it to you

I swear these idiots do not understand how elections work and believe the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

These idiots believe that in states with growing Minority populations like Texas will stay red if Trump is the candidate while the reality it will most likely turn blue and give the Democrats another state.

GOP will not win states like California, New York or Illinois with a candidate like Trump, and they could lose states like Texas while at it, but that extra white vote in South Dakota or South Carolina will make them happy while not understanding you need the Electoral College to win!

There may be almost no Hispanics in Wyoming or Idaho. It does not matter, those states go red anyway

California, Texas, Florida are the real prizes
Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada collectively add up

Right now
California, New Mexico are Blue
Texas and Arizona are Red

The others are up for grabs. Move Florida, Colorado and Nevada to the blue column and Republicans are doomed in 2016

Long term, Texas and Arizona come in to play

 

[frigidweirdo]

Undone by Trump and those who support him.

Legal Hispanics support Trump. 95% of blacks support Trump on blocking muslim immigration.

You guys are losing. Unless you find another candidate, 2016 will belong to the GOP. Obama and Clinton have destroyed the party of Kennedy and Truman.

The funny thing is, if you look at UK politics, the Conservative Party ran on anti-immigration issues in 2001 and 2005 and got hammered. It simply wasn't an issue which people took to the polls with them. They thought other issues were more important.

and the UK is seeing the results of that stupid decision today. Run that election today and you would get just the opposite result.

No, you wouldn't. It's been proven again and again, when it comes to elections, people are more concerned with their own lives, than of things which are on the edge of their own lives.

Immigration and personal safety are the top issues with US voters today. I would say that those issues are "concerned with their own lives"

But tell me, why do you on the left want open borders and why do you want to let everyone into this country?

Today, yes. When the election comes around, will they be?

But it's funny, the Right makes obscurity and issue by idiotic wars and inept mismanagement, the latter both at home and abroad, and then comes along like a knight in shining armor and says it's the one to save everyone from the mess it made in the first place.

However when it comes to politicians talking about issues, you'll be amazed at how quickly people turn away from these issues. Just go look up the UK elections in 2001 and 2005 if you don't believe me.

Immigration isn't a real "reality issue", their kid's education is, their healthcare is, their jobs are. This is the bread and butter of what makes people tick.

 

[Redfish]

I believe Redfish when he says he went to Harvard. I also believe he doesn't understand statistics, even if he took the class.

I understand statistics quite well. I also understand that the current polling is designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

When they use a sample of 1000 out of 330,000,000, it is not a statistically valid representative sample. I know that the pollsters claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in their tiny sample. But it is simply not possible. True, some of them make pretty good guesses and some of them are flat out rigged.

you are free to believe them if you like.

LOL.....Harvard MBA doesn't understand statistical sampling

'
clearly much better than you do. go to your local library and check out a stat 101 text book, then read about representative sampling, you might learn something.

I fully understand what the pollsters CLAIM. But it does not pass a math test.

Even Harvard MBAs understand that each sample has a margin of error of plus or minus a few percent. To think that a Harvard MBA does not understand that a sample of 1000 can be relevant is embarassing.
Individual samples of 1000 can each be challenged on their standard deviations. However, if repeated individual samples of 1000 are yielding the same results, those samples collectively are more valid

Even a French model like myself understands it

Amazingly ignorant. a sample of 1000 out of 330,000,000 cannot ever be valid, the margin of error is too great. The pollsters try to overcome that by carefully selecting the sample to (theoretically) proportionally cover all the demographics within the 330,000,000 population. The problem is that there are more than 1000 different demographics in the USA so it is impossible to proportionally cover all of them in such a small sample.

Now if you make the sample 2,000,000 or more the margin of error might be acceptable. But they never use that large of a sample because it would cost too much and take too long to gather.

I am right about this, you only make yourself look foolish by continuing your rants.

 

[Redfish]

Legal Hispanics support Trump. 95% of blacks support Trump on blocking muslim immigration.

You guys are losing. Unless you find another candidate, 2016 will belong to the GOP. Obama and Clinton have destroyed the party of Kennedy and Truman.

The funny thing is, if you look at UK politics, the Conservative Party ran on anti-immigration issues in 2001 and 2005 and got hammered. It simply wasn't an issue which people took to the polls with them. They thought other issues were more important.

and the UK is seeing the results of that stupid decision today. Run that election today and you would get just the opposite result.

No, you wouldn't. It's been proven again and again, when it comes to elections, people are more concerned with their own lives, than of things which are on the edge of their own lives.

Immigration and personal safety are the top issues with US voters today. I would say that those issues are "concerned with their own lives"

But tell me, why do you on the left want open borders and why do you want to let everyone into this country?

Today, yes. When the election comes around, will they be?

But it's funny, the Right makes obscurity and issue by idiotic wars and inept mismanagement, the latter both at home and abroad, and then comes along like a knight in shining armor and says it's the one to save everyone from the mess it made in the first place.

However when it comes to politicians talking about issues, you'll be amazed at how quickly people turn away from these issues. Just go look up the UK elections in 2001 and 2005 if you don't believe me.

Immigration isn't a real "reality issue", their kid's education is, their healthcare is, their jobs are. This is the bread and butter of what makes people tick.

We will see, won't we? If there is another radical muslim attack in the USA, keeping their kids alive will be the primary issue with most voters. They may be over reacting, but staying alive is high on the human priority list.

 

[Redfish]

How well must GOP do among Hispanics to win in 2016?

The GOP has a huge mountain to climb to win the Hispanic vote, and Trump is not making it easier. It is just incredible that all the work that the GOP has done to enlarge its base has been undone by Trump in just a few months.

Trump supporters really do not care if they lose the Hispanic vote.

Note: I am not a supporter of Trump and believe if the GOP does not flush him soon they will not be able to save their chances to win this next November.

Obama won re-election in 2012 by 3,013,769

Obama 61,208,082 50.5% Popular Votes
Romney 58,194,313 48.0% Popular Vote 119,402,395 2.5%

2012 Primary Election Results: President
ethnic of total Obama Romney
White-American 39% 59%
African-American 93% 7%
Latin-American 71% 27%
Asian-American 71% 27%

Ethnic % of total votes Total votes Obama votes Romney
White-American 72% 44,069,819 17,187,229 26,001,193
African-American 13% 7,957,051 7,400,057 556,994
Latin-American 10% 6,120,808 4,345,774 1,652,618
Asian-American 3% 1,836,242 1,303,732 495,785
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

any conservatives from the outset urged the Republican Party not to go with Romney, figuring he was another moderate Republican destined to lose -- like John McCain.
McCain Beats Romney!

So those are the FACTS as to how Obama won re-election by a small margin of 3 million votes.
So all that is needed is the same number of Latin-American voters BUT this time White Americans being so truly embarrassed by voting for Obama
WILL make up the 6 million difference increasing just 14% more White Votes.

We elect by electoral votes NOT popular vote

Ask President Gore, he can explain it to you

I swear these idiots do not understand how elections work and believe the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

These idiots believe that in states with growing Minority populations like Texas will stay red if Trump is the candidate while the reality it will most likely turn blue and give the Democrats another state.

GOP will not win states like California, New York or Illinois with a candidate like Trump, and they could lose states like Texas while at it, but that extra white vote in South Dakota or South Carolina will make them happy while not understanding you need the Electoral College to win!

There may be almost no Hispanics in Wyoming or Idaho. It does not matter, those states go red anyway

California, Texas, Florida are the real prizes
Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada collectively add up

Right now
California, New Mexico are Blue
Texas and Arizona are Red

The others are up for grabs. Move Florida, Colorado and Nevada to the blue column and Republicans are doomed in 2016

Long term, Texas and Arizona come in to play

your assumption that all Hispanics, or a majority of them, will vote dem is wrong. Legal American Hispanics are as politically diverse as the rest of America.

Why do you want one party controlling the country?

 

[rightwinger]

I believe Redfish when he says he went to Harvard. I also believe he doesn't understand statistics, even if he took the class.

I understand statistics quite well. I also understand that the current polling is designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

When they use a sample of 1000 out of 330,000,000, it is not a statistically valid representative sample. I know that the pollsters claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in their tiny sample. But it is simply not possible. True, some of them make pretty good guesses and some of them are flat out rigged.

you are free to believe them if you like.

LOL.....Harvard MBA doesn't understand statistical sampling

'
clearly much better than you do. go to your local library and check out a stat 101 text book, then read about representative sampling, you might learn something.

I fully understand what the pollsters CLAIM. But it does not pass a math test.

Even Harvard MBAs understand that each sample has a margin of error of plus or minus a few percent. To think that a Harvard MBA does not understand that a sample of 1000 can be relevant is embarassing.
Individual samples of 1000 can each be challenged on their standard deviations. However, if repeated individual samples of 1000 are yielding the same results, those samples collectively are more valid

Even a French model like myself understands it

Amazingly ignorant. a sample of 1000 out of 330,000,000 cannot ever be valid, the margin of error is too great. The pollsters try to overcome that by carefully selecting the sample to (theoretically) proportionally cover all the demographics within the 330,000,000 population. The problem is that there are more than 1000 different demographics in the USA so it is impossible to proportionally cover all of them in such a small sample.

Now if you make the sample 2,000,000 or more the margin of error might be acceptable. But they never use that large of a sample because it would cost too much and take too long to gather.

I am right about this, you only make yourself look foolish by continuing your rants.

Harvard MBA?
No, the margin is not too great

If you random sample 1000 people and every one says they do not support Redfish for President do you think you need to sample 100 million before you can be confident that Redfish has no chance?

Sampling error will provide your statistical confidence band.

One sample may be an outlier and need to be thrown out. If random samples consistenly yield the same result, they provide valitity

 

[rightwinger]

Trump supporters really do not care if they lose the Hispanic vote.

Note: I am not a supporter of Trump and believe if the GOP does not flush him soon they will not be able to save their chances to win this next November.

Obama won re-election in 2012 by 3,013,769

Obama 61,208,082 50.5% Popular Votes
Romney 58,194,313 48.0% Popular Vote 119,402,395 2.5%

2012 Primary Election Results: President
ethnic of total Obama Romney
White-American 39% 59%
African-American 93% 7%
Latin-American 71% 27%
Asian-American 71% 27%

Ethnic % of total votes Total votes Obama votes Romney
White-American 72% 44,069,819 17,187,229 26,001,193
African-American 13% 7,957,051 7,400,057 556,994
Latin-American 10% 6,120,808 4,345,774 1,652,618
Asian-American 3% 1,836,242 1,303,732 495,785
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

any conservatives from the outset urged the Republican Party not to go with Romney, figuring he was another moderate Republican destined to lose -- like John McCain.
McCain Beats Romney!

So those are the FACTS as to how Obama won re-election by a small margin of 3 million votes.
So all that is needed is the same number of Latin-American voters BUT this time White Americans being so truly embarrassed by voting for Obama
WILL make up the 6 million difference increasing just 14% more White Votes.

We elect by electoral votes NOT popular vote

Ask President Gore, he can explain it to you

I swear these idiots do not understand how elections work and believe the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

These idiots believe that in states with growing Minority populations like Texas will stay red if Trump is the candidate while the reality it will most likely turn blue and give the Democrats another state.

GOP will not win states like California, New York or Illinois with a candidate like Trump, and they could lose states like Texas while at it, but that extra white vote in South Dakota or South Carolina will make them happy while not understanding you need the Electoral College to win!

There may be almost no Hispanics in Wyoming or Idaho. It does not matter, those states go red anyway

California, Texas, Florida are the real prizes
Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada collectively add up

Right now
California, New Mexico are Blue
Texas and Arizona are Red

The others are up for grabs. Move Florida, Colorado and Nevada to the blue column and Republicans are doomed in 2016

Long term, Texas and Arizona come in to play

your assumption that all Hispanics, or a majority of them, will vote dem is wrong. Legal American Hispanics are as politically diverse as the rest of America.

Why do you want one party controlling the country?

Only legal Hispanics can vote. Only 27% of legal Hispanics voted republican in 2012. Since then, Republicans have become more hostile to Hispanics