Inflation is out of control

[Flopper]

Inflation is not out of control. Whoever is telling anyone that is either mental, feeble, or evil.

Yep. I guess Trump and his followers can't read the inflation charts. The historical average yearly inflation since 1960 is 3.8%. It is currently 3.4%. It is certainly not out of control.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Sorry but the bad old federal government spending is not and never has been the primary driver of inflation. Most of the imbalance in supply and demand occurs without any help from the goverment.

Remember back when democrats and republicans were fighting over the massive government spending for Obamacare. Republicans who weren't claiming Obamacare would bankrupt the country were telling us it would cause hyper inflation. The facts are that the yearly average inflation for the 5 years following the passage of Obamacare was only 1.43%, the second lowest 5 yr period in 50 years. Nor did we see any hyper inflation during the Trump admiration. The average inflation during the Trump administration was only slightly higher than during the Obama administration at 1.9%.

However, big increases in government spending that occurs when inflation forces within the economy are pushing prices higher will certainly make inflation worse. On average, goverment is responsible for about 30% of our inflation.

You can see the success of the Federal Reserve in moderating inflationary periods and recessions by comparing the 75 year period before the Fed was created with the following 75 years.

U.S. Inflation Rate 1960-2024

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used.

www.macrotrends.net

Sorry but the bad old federal government spending is not and never has been the primary driver of inflation.

I didn't say it was primary. The Federal Reserve would be primary.

Republicans who weren't claiming Obamacare would bankrupt the country were telling us it would cause hyper inflation.
I don't remember anyone claiming it would cause hyperinflation. Any links to support your claim?

Remember when Obama claimed taking over student loans would be profitable and
could be used to pay for part of Obamacare? Now it looks like it will cost taxpayers
hundreds of billions of dollars for Obama's student loan takeover.

On average, goverment is responsible for about 30% of our inflation.

Link?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Yep. I guess Trump and his followers can't read the inflation charts. The historical average yearly inflation since 1960 is 3.8%. It is currently 3.4%. It is certainly not out of control.

The historical average yearly inflation since 1960 is 3.8%.

What's the average since 2000?

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

The historical average yearly inflation since 1960 is 3.8%.

What's the average since 2000?

Immaterial in real-time terms, unless you are going to blame both parties.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Immaterial in real-time terms, unless you are going to blame both parties.

2000-2024 is more material than 1960-2024.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

2000-2024 is more material than 1960-2024.

Are you going to blame both parties equally?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Are you going to blame both parties equally?

For Bidenflation?

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

For Bidenflation?

That won't work. Both parties threw money to the wind, Trump's mishandling of Covid led to world wide price increases coupled to demand exceeding supply. Naw, that won't work.

 

[The Duke]

My property taxes went up 3400% since 2022.

You just lost 10% or more of your total wealth.

MSN

 

[Flopper]

Sorry but the bad old federal government spending is not and never has been the primary driver of inflation.

I didn't say it was primary. The Federal Reserve would be primary.

Republicans who weren't claiming Obamacare would bankrupt the country were telling us it would cause hyper inflation.
I don't remember anyone claiming it would cause hyperinflation. Any links to support your claim?

Remember when Obama claimed taking over student loans would be profitable and
could be used to pay for part of Obamacare? Now it looks like it will cost taxpayers
hundreds of billions of dollars for Obama's student loan takeover.

On average, goverment is responsible for about 30% of our inflation.

Link?

There is a link to that in one of my previous posts in this thread. The statement comes from the Brookings Institute.

"What is driving the federal budget into bankruptcy?
Health care spending"

https://manhattan.institute/article/health-care-will-bankrupt-the-nation.

No, the federal reserve is not a primary force causing inflation. However, they are slow to act in fear of applying to much restrain to the economy and starting an economy slow down.

In the last quarter of 2020, the first Corvid vaccine was given and business and government leaders became optimist that the end of Covid in the US was near. Signs of real economic growth were appearing. In January 2021, Biden took office. During the first half on the year, two things happened. We had solid economic growth but we also had a jump in inflation. Fear that economic restrains to curb the inflation would slow economic growth. both the FED and BLS wanted to see more proof before restraining growth.

It would not be till March 2022, that the FED decided that they had enough evidence to start increasing interest rates without causing an economic slow down. In hindsight, they may have waited too long. Inflation hit 9.1% in July 2022.

Although they seemed to wait to long to start interest rate increases, their persistence monthly increases in rates paid off by bring inflation rates down steadily from 9.1% to 3% by 2024 without causing an economic slow down.

Although the FED goal was 2% inflation by 2024, they now seem content to settle for 3 to 3.4% since they have got it below the 50 year historic averages. They have also indicated that they hope to have an interest rate cut by the end of the year and are confident that they will get it back to 2% but they are depending more on natural forces in the economy to eventually get us there.

Monthly inflation vs core inflation U.S. 2024 | Statista

In May 2024, the inflation rate of the consumer price index increased by 3.3 percent when compared to May 2023.

www.statista.com

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

That won't work. Both parties threw money to the wind, Trump's mishandling of Covid led to world wide price increases coupled to demand exceeding supply. Naw, that won't work.

I remember leftists whining about Trump's travel restrictions.
I remember leftists telling people to take public transportation to Chinatown
I remember leftists putting Covid patients into nursing homes.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

There is a link to that in one of my previous posts in this thread. The statement comes from the Brookings Institute.

"What is driving the federal budget into bankruptcy?
Health care spending"

https://manhattan.institute/article/health-care-will-bankrupt-the-nation.

No, the federal reserve is not a primary force causing inflation. However, they are slow to act in fear of applying to much restrain to the economy and starting an economy slow down.

In the last quarter of 2020, the first Corvid vaccine was given and business and government leaders became optimist that the end of Covid in the US was near. Signs of real economic growth were appearing. In January 2021, Biden took office. During the first half on the year, two things happened. We had solid economic growth but we also had a jump in inflation. Fear that economic restrains to curb the inflation would slow economic growth. both the FED and BLS wanted to see more proof before restraining growth.

It would not be till March 2022, that the FED decided that they had enough evidence to start increasing interest rates without causing an economic slow down. In hindsight, they may have waited too long. Inflation hit 9.1% in July 2022.

Although they seemed to wait to long to start interest rate increases, their persistence monthly increases in rates paid off by bring inflation rates down steadily from 9.1% to 3% by 2024 without causing an economic slow down.

Although the FED goal was 2% inflation by 2024, they now seem content to settle for 3 to 3.4% since they have got it below the 50 year historic averages. They have also indicated that they hope to have an interest rate cut by the end of the year and are confident that they will get it back to 2% but they are depending more on natural forces in the economy to eventually get us there.

Monthly inflation vs core inflation U.S. 2024 | Statista

In May 2024, the inflation rate of the consumer price index increased by 3.3 percent when compared to May 2023.

www.statista.com

No, the federal reserve is not a primary force causing inflation.

Of course it is.
They have the largest influence over money supply.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

the Brookings institute, a think tank that has a centralist politics says the government is responsible for only 25% to 30% of inflation.

I looked at their website and couldn't find anything making this claim.
Are you sure you had a link?

 

[Flopper]

Immaterial in real-time terms, unless you are going to blame both parties.

I don't blame either party. Inflation and recessions are a fact of life in our economy. An excess in economic expansion eventually creates too much demand which pushes inflation up. As inflation keeps rising eventually the bubble pops and we go into recession. The actions of the FED has moderated the peaks and valleys in the economy but the business cycle will continue to move us back and forth between excessive growth and recession. The goal of the FED is to have moderate growth with full employment which translates into the elimination of booms and busts, a goal that can never be fully realized.

Ideally changes in goverment fiscal policy; that is increases in spending would help stimulate the economy in a recession and the reverse would slow the economy and help lower inflation. We are real good at the former but not so good at the latter. The reason being fiscal policy is determined by politics not the economy.

 

[Flopper]

I looked at their website and couldn't find anything making this claim.
Are you sure you had a link?

I'm sure it came from Brookings but have not found the link. However, this appeared in NY Times.
One recent model, from researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the University of Maryland and Harvard University, estimates that about a third of the inflation from December 2019 through June 2022 was caused by fiscal stimulus measures.

Republicans Say Spending Is Fueling Inflation. The Fed Chair Disagrees. (Published 2023)

Jerome H. Powell has said that snarled supply chains, an oil shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and shifts among American consumers are primarily behind rapid price growth.

www.nytimes.com

I have also seen another economic study that estimates that government fiscal policies are responsible for 28% to 32% of inflation.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

I'm sure it came from Brookings but have not found the link. However, this appeared in NY Times.
One recent model, from researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the University of Maryland and Harvard University, estimates that about a third of the inflation from December 2019 through June 2022 was caused by fiscal stimulus measures.

Republicans Say Spending Is Fueling Inflation. The Fed Chair Disagrees. (Published 2023)

Jerome H. Powell has said that snarled supply chains, an oil shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and shifts among American consumers are primarily behind rapid price growth.

www.nytimes.com

I have also seen another economic study that estimates that government fiscal policies are responsible for 28% to 32% of inflation.

That's not your original claim.

If fiscal policy is 28%-32%, monetary policy must be 68%-72%.

 

[Captain Caveman]

So it's called property tax in the US. It's council tax in the UK and the max increase set by government is 5% per year. If a council wants to increase it above that, it needs to go and ask the government.

Thatcher tried poll tax, which was each person paid x amount per month/year. Helped low occupancy households but not families, so it led to her downfall.

So just like here, if you live in a small house, you pay X amount. If you inherit a more expensive property and move into it, you pay more property tax, yet your wage stays the same and you don't increase your use of your local council facilities.

Property tax is a scam.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I remember leftists whining about Trump's travel restrictions.
I remember leftists telling people to take public transportation to Chinatown
I remember leftists putting Covid patients into nursing homes.

Perhaps had the Fed Govt been open and honest with us early on about how bad COVID was going to be, those things would not have taken place.

Trump and the Fed Govt knew how bad it was, but they did not tell us till far too late

 

[The Duke]

Fuel has much to do with the inflation.

Virtually everything in the country moves around by Diesel.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

You just lost 10% or more of your total wealth.

MSN

It will be all right little buddy....