Greenbeard
Gold Member
- Jun 20, 2010
- 7,664
- 1,646
Hi all.
The CBO's annual budget outlook came out and it's got some pretty good news in it.
Premiums are cheaper than they expected when determining the cost of the law This became obvious last year when the actual premiums were first released but, to their credit, the CBO copped to it in their first projection post-premiums being announced. As they say: "CBO and JCT lowered their estimate of average premiums for insurance coverage through exchanges in 2014 by about 15 percent on the basis of a preliminary analysis of plans offered through exchanges." Similarly, projections of federal subsidies per subsidized enrollee dropped by about 11% as costs turned out to be lower than expected.
The net cost of the law this year fallen by $8 billion or more than 16%.
The "bailout" will net the government $8 billion. Apparently conservatives found out recently the law has risk corridors through the end of 2016 and turned it into a major cause. Except, according to the CBO, what once was going to break even is now going to net the government a few billion dollars: "CBO now projects that, over the 2015-2017 period, risk corridor payments from the federal government to health insurers will total $8 billion and that the corresponding collections from insurers will amount to $16 billion, yielding net savings for the federal government of $8 billion. By contrast, in its baseline projections in May 2013, the agency estimated that payments and collections for risk corridors would roughly offset one another."
Medicare spending growth just keeps slowing down. Projected Medicare spending over the 2013-23 period is now $116 billion lower than the CBO projected last spring. As they put it, "the slowdown in Medicare cost growth during the past several years has been sufficiently broad and persistent to lead CBO to project that [Medicare cost] growth will be slower than usual for some years to come."
And if you want to compare to a window covered by the last pre-ACA projection of Medicare spending, back in January 2010, you can compare projections for the 2013-2020 period (an 8 year period, which is smaller than the usual 10-year CBO budget window) then and today: Medicare is now projected to be a whopping $1.093 trillion cheaper over that truncated window than pre-ACA estimates suggested. With the savings, the ACA was supposed to do a little better than breaking even--turns out it's doing a lot better than just breaking even.
The part-timer myth is just that. CBO has seen "no compelling evidence that part-time employment has increased as a result of the ACA." Turns out anecdotes don't translate into data.
Ultimately they see the ranks of the uninsured shrinking by 13 million in a single year, costs coming in lower than expected, and, while they don't comment on quality, through other indicators we've seen hospital quality conspicuously increasing in recent years. Who knew?
The CBO's annual budget outlook came out and it's got some pretty good news in it.
Premiums are cheaper than they expected when determining the cost of the law This became obvious last year when the actual premiums were first released but, to their credit, the CBO copped to it in their first projection post-premiums being announced. As they say: "CBO and JCT lowered their estimate of average premiums for insurance coverage through exchanges in 2014 by about 15 percent on the basis of a preliminary analysis of plans offered through exchanges." Similarly, projections of federal subsidies per subsidized enrollee dropped by about 11% as costs turned out to be lower than expected.
The net cost of the law this year fallen by $8 billion or more than 16%.
The "bailout" will net the government $8 billion. Apparently conservatives found out recently the law has risk corridors through the end of 2016 and turned it into a major cause. Except, according to the CBO, what once was going to break even is now going to net the government a few billion dollars: "CBO now projects that, over the 2015-2017 period, risk corridor payments from the federal government to health insurers will total $8 billion and that the corresponding collections from insurers will amount to $16 billion, yielding net savings for the federal government of $8 billion. By contrast, in its baseline projections in May 2013, the agency estimated that payments and collections for risk corridors would roughly offset one another."
Medicare spending growth just keeps slowing down. Projected Medicare spending over the 2013-23 period is now $116 billion lower than the CBO projected last spring. As they put it, "the slowdown in Medicare cost growth during the past several years has been sufficiently broad and persistent to lead CBO to project that [Medicare cost] growth will be slower than usual for some years to come."
And if you want to compare to a window covered by the last pre-ACA projection of Medicare spending, back in January 2010, you can compare projections for the 2013-2020 period (an 8 year period, which is smaller than the usual 10-year CBO budget window) then and today: Medicare is now projected to be a whopping $1.093 trillion cheaper over that truncated window than pre-ACA estimates suggested. With the savings, the ACA was supposed to do a little better than breaking even--turns out it's doing a lot better than just breaking even.
The part-timer myth is just that. CBO has seen "no compelling evidence that part-time employment has increased as a result of the ACA." Turns out anecdotes don't translate into data.
Ultimately they see the ranks of the uninsured shrinking by 13 million in a single year, costs coming in lower than expected, and, while they don't comment on quality, through other indicators we've seen hospital quality conspicuously increasing in recent years. Who knew?
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