ShaklesOfBigGov
Restore the Republic
The BBCs 2007 report quoted scientist Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, [Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California] who based his views on super-computer models and the fact that we use a high-resolution regional model for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice. At the time, the prediction was claimed to be a conservative forecast.
Not sure how you get more conservative then no ice, but I digress. In fact, BBCs forecast was so far off that new satellite imagery shows that the Arctic has60 percent more ice now than it did in 2007 one million miles more to be exact.
So yeah.. wrong again
Using 2007 is called cherry picking a date. The following are a couple of excerpts from a very long and informative article written by those who study these things rather than those who cherry pick statistics. Read it you may learn something. Among them that the date for an ice free arctic may be only a few years off the original prediction.
".......The annual minimum extent usually occurs during the month of September and the lowest monthly average was measured in September 2007. The monthly figure was 40.8 percent below the average for the period 1979-1990......."
..."The accelerating rate of decline of ice volume may be a more accurate indicator than the rate of decline of ice extent when attempting to predict the time horizon for an ice-free Arctic Ocean....".
"........Ice volume data helps to put the recovery of sea ice extent since the 2007 minimum into perspective. Sea ice volume continues to decline rapidly and has occurred at an exponential rate since 1979........."
".......... If this trend persists over the coming years we could experience an ice free Arctic Ocean by the summer of 2015............."
The Arctic Institute - Center for Circumpolar Security Studies
Of course. Whenever you want to justify theories that don't work out as planned .... just add a few years. I previously found unexplained "problems" surrounding this global warming myself.
A new NASA study shows that from 1978 to 2010 the total extent of sea ice surrounding Antarctica in the Southern Ocean grew by roughly 6,600 square miles every year, an area larger than the state of Connecticut. And previous research by the same authors indicates that this rate of increase has recently accelerated, up from an average rate of almost 4,300 square miles per year from 1978 to 2006.
Yet we find this report about the earth's o-zone layer
John Vidal
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 4 November 2008
The ozone hole over Antarctica grew to the size of North America this year the fifth largest on record according to the latest satellite observations.