Place Your Bets Here....How Low Will Crude Go?

[NoTeaPartyPleez]

It's at 46.77 in real time on WSJ's market site. Who wants to bet what the price per BBL will be on January 31?

I'll say $39+/-.

 

[Statistikhengst]

"The sky is falling!"

"It's all Obama's fault"!

 

[NoTeaPartyPleez]

"The sky is falling!"

"It's all Obama's fault"!

Yeah, can you imagine the squawking if crude oil was going the other direction? The finger pointing! The "We told you so....!!".

 

[Moonglow]

There is nothing to help push oil back up until US economic news is released...I am guessing 39 dollars a barrel it will bottom out by Valentines or Easter, then rise with the eco news and the change in weather along with fuel change...

 

[waltky]

Oil prices gonna stay down for the immediate future...

Oil tumbles as strong dollar, oversupply weigh on investors
Mon Nov 23, 2015 - Oil prices fell on Monday, dented by the rise in the U.S. dollar to seven-month highs, and analysts see more losses triggered by the mismatch between global supply and demand.

The fall was part of a wider decline in commodities that has also been stoked by worries over faltering demand from China, with prices for base metals such as copper and nickel tumbling. However, speculators have turned increasingly negative on crude. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 fell $1.26 a barrel to $40.64 a barrel by 0418 ET. The contract broke below $40 on Friday for the first time since August. Benchmark January Brent futures LCOc1 were last down 90 cents at $43.76 a barrel. "That seven-month high (in the dollar) flashed a warning sign in people's faces that the dollar is appreciating," CMC Markets analyst Jasper Lawler said. The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver its first rate rise in almost a decade when it meets next month, while the European Central Bank looks almost certain to continue to ease monetary policy.

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California​

A stronger dollar .DXY tends to make it more profitable for non-U.S. investors to sell their dollar-denominated commodity holdings. [FRX/] The break in U.S. crude futures below $40 a barrel exacerbated the pace of the selling, CMC's Lawler said. "Half of what is happening in WTI is just because we’ve broken that $40 level after holding above it for so long, so Brent has got to follow through ... the main target is the (August) low ... that's on the cards this week," he said. Big hedge funds have increased their bets that oil will continue to fall, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last week. [CFTC/] Speculators now hold more positions that are betting on a drop in the oil price than at any time since at least 2009, according to Reuters data.

Meanwhile, Venezuela's oil minister said on Sunday that OPEC cannot allow an oil price war and must take action to stabilize the crude market soon. When asked how low oil prices could go in 2016 if OPEC doesn't change its policy, he said: "Mid-20s." Oil prices have halved over the last 12 months after OPEC decided to maintain its production levels, or even increase them, to retain market share, in part by forcing higher-cost producers elsewhere to cut output. Oil markets were keeping an eye on developing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as Jordan's King Abdullah will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on how to tackle "terror groups" led by Islamic State in Syria, an official source said.

Oil tumbles as strong dollar, oversupply weigh on investors

 

[waltky]

1 Qtr. 2016 oil prices may go lower...

BP CEO Bob Dudley predicts further slump in oil prices
Sunday 3rd January, 2016 - BP Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley has predicted a further slump in the already record-low oil prices, pointing out that the first quarter in specific could be a low point.

Dudley explained in a BBC radio interview broadcast, "The first quarter would be a low point but 2016's third and fourth quarters could witness a more natural balance between supply and demand after which stock levels could start to wear off."

He added that the prices were going to stay lower for a couple of years, pointing out that this is a boom-and-bust cycle.

Reports further stated that oil prices fell by 34 percent last year after shedding 48 percent in 2014. The plunge in global oil prices has pushed inflation close to or below zero in many countries, helping consumers but wrong-footing central banks. Dudley admitted that the Deepwater spill disaster nearly crippled the oil giant.

BP CEO Bob Dudley predicts further slump in oil prices

 

[WildBillKelsoe]

"The sky is falling!"

"It's all Obama's fault"!

Yeah, can you imagine the squawking if crude oil was going the other direction? The finger pointing! The "We told you so....!!".

Then, it would be everybody's fault BUT Obama.

I say 45 bucks, because Saudi Arabia and Iran are fixing to go to war.

 

[Spinster]

I say 30.

 

[waltky]

Heavy oversupply shows no signs of easing...

Oil slips toward $30, traders bet on more falls
Tue Jan 12, 2016 - Crude oil slipped toward $30 per barrel to a near 12-year low on Tuesday as heavy oversupply showed no sign of easing, while analysts scrambled to cut their price forecasts and traders bet on further declines.

Prices are down around 16 percent since the start of the year, dragged lower by a glut, China's weakening economy and stock market turmoil, as well as the strong dollar, which makes it more expensive for those using other currencies to buy oil. "The bearish sentiment surrounding the commodity has intensified," said Brenda Kelly, head analyst at London Capital Group. International benchmark Brent crude fell to a low of $30.43 per barrel, a level last seen in April 2004, before recovering to $31.43, down 12 cents or 0.38 percent, by 1028 GMT.

An employee of Cosmo Energy Holdings' Cosmo Oil service station checks its nozzles at a branch in Tokyo, Japan​

It was down for the seventh consecutive session, and has fallen every day of 2016 so far. U.S. crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to a low of $30.41 per barrel, a level last seen in December 2003, before crawling back to $31.06, down 35 cents or 1.11 percent. Trading data showed that managed short positions in WTI crude contracts, which would profit from a further fall in prices, are at a record high, implying that many traders expect further falls. China's slowing economy has been another factor contributing to the oil rout, which has pulled prices down by around 70 percent since mid-2014.

And while demand looks fragile, supply from key producers remains robust. Iraq, the second-biggest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), plans to export a record of around 3.63 million barrels per day from its southern oil terminals in February, trade sources said. They cited a preliminary loading program, up 8 percent from this month. Nigeria's oil minister said a "couple" of OPEC members had requested an emergency meeting, adding that current market conditions support the need to hold such a gathering.

MORE

 

[longknife]

Latest crude prices @ Commodities: Latest Crude Oil Price & Chart

As an aside, futures may be going up over fears of an unpleasant tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

 

[waltky]

Oil prices slip again...

Oil prices slip on weak Asian data, fading prospect of output cut
Mon Feb 1, 2016 - Oil prices dropped on Monday after China and South Korea posted surprisingly weak economic data, while fading prospects for a coordinated production cut by leading crude exporters also dragged on the market.

Economic data from China, showing its manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest pace in almost three-and-a-half years in January, added to worries about demand from the world's top energy consumer at a time when the market is already weighed down by a supply overhang. Numbers coming out of South Korea were also gloomy, with the country's exports down at levels last seen at the height of the global financial crisis in 2009. Reflecting an accelerating slowdown in Asia's biggest economies, front-month Brent crude was down 56 cents at $35.43 per barrel at 0507 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down 42 cents at $33.20 a barrel.

A natural gas flare on an oil well pad burns as the sun sets outside Watford City, North Dakota​

Oil prices came under further pressure because of the dim prospects of a coordinated cut in production by leading exporters like the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia due to their differences. "We do not expect such a cut will occur unless global growth weakens sharply from current levels, which is not our economists' forecast," Goldman Sachs said. Also, OPEC-member Iran, which last month was allowed to fully return to markets after years of sanctions, is not willing to participate in any cuts. In part because of Iran's return, OPEC oil production has jumped to 32.60 million barrels per day (bpd), its highest in years. This has added to a global glut of over 1 million bpd in excess of demand, which has pulled down oil prices around 70 percent since mid-2014.

Because of the oversupply, analysts at BMI Research said they had reduced their oil price outlook: "We have downgraded our 2016 Brent forecast to $40 per barrel from $42.5 previously." They expect WTI to average $39.50 this year. "Counteracting oil's upside momentum in 2016 will be the weakness of the Chinese yuan, lingering concerns over global economic growth and the well-stocked inventories of crude and fuels," BMI said, adding that a gradual price rise was expected in the second half of the year. A belief in higher prices towards the end of the year also shows in the price curve, with Brent for April 2017 delivery $7.8 per barrel above those for April this year, up from a premium of just $5.7 for this time spread on Nov. 1.

Oil prices slip on weak Asian data, fading prospect of output cut

 

[pwjohn]

Thank you president Obama for successfully bringing Iran in from the cold.

The pump price near where I live dropped more than 10 cents a gallon. Buck 65 before is now a buck 54

 

[JimBowie1958]

I say 30.

It is at $31 and was below $30.

Looks like you had the best educated guess, congrats!

Commodities: Latest Crude Oil Price & Chart

 

[waltky]

If it'll just stop any decline in the economy will be of some help...

Cheap oil won't juice the U.S. economy this time: Reuters poll
1 Feb.`16 | WASHINGTON(Reuters) - U.S. consumers are cautious about spending their windfall from cheap gasoline and are saving more, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll and official data, suggesting low oil prices are less of a boon for the U.S. economy than in the past.

Commerce Department data shows that the crude's 70 percent drop since mid-2014 cut households' annual spending on gasoline and other energy products by $115 billion, equivalent to roughly 0.5 percent of gross domestic product. At the same time, however, savings increased by $121 billion and while the data gives no indication where the money has come from, the survey suggests the windfall accounted for a significant part of the sum.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll shows 75 percent of 3,068 Americans who answered questions on gasoline savings said the extra money helped them cover basic needs and the majority have not used their windfall to buy big ticket items. Over 40 percent of respondents said the savings had helped them pay down debts, according to the Jan. 15-27 online poll, which had a credibility interval of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. "It obviously hurts less when I go to the grocery store," said Karen Joines, a recruiting firm product manager from Peachtree City, Georgia. Joines, who participated in the survey, estimates she saves $30 a week thanks to cheaper gasoline but has no plans for big purchases, in part because she worries low prices will not last.

Some economists say such doubts and the still-fresh scars of the 2007-2009 recession could explain the muted effect of cheap gas on consumption. For example, the economy only in mid-2014 recovered the more than 7 million jobs lost during the downturn. "We don't seem to be getting the benefits from cheaper gasoline that we did when the economy was healthier," said veteran oil economist and independent consultant Phil Verleger.

Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said another reason Americans appeared wary of spending what they saved at the pump could be that more and more of them were approaching retirement. "They are conscious of that (and) they need to save more," Kaplan told Reuters in an interview.

HALF THE BENEFIT

 

[pwjohn]

If it'll just stop any decline in the economy will be of some help...

Cheap oil won't juice the U.S. economy this time: Reuters poll
1 Feb.`16 | WASHINGTON(Reuters) - U.S. consumers are cautious about spending their windfall from cheap gasoline and are saving more, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll and official data, suggesting low oil prices are less of a boon for the U.S. economy than in the past.

Commerce Department data shows that the crude's 70 percent drop since mid-2014 cut households' annual spending on gasoline and other energy products by $115 billion, equivalent to roughly 0.5 percent of gross domestic product. At the same time, however, savings increased by $121 billion and while the data gives no indication where the money has come from, the survey suggests the windfall accounted for a significant part of the sum.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll shows 75 percent of 3,068 Americans who answered questions on gasoline savings said the extra money helped them cover basic needs and the majority have not used their windfall to buy big ticket items. Over 40 percent of respondents said the savings had helped them pay down debts, according to the Jan. 15-27 online poll, which had a credibility interval of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. "It obviously hurts less when I go to the grocery store," said Karen Joines, a recruiting firm product manager from Peachtree City, Georgia. Joines, who participated in the survey, estimates she saves $30 a week thanks to cheaper gasoline but has no plans for big purchases, in part because she worries low prices will not last.

Some economists say such doubts and the still-fresh scars of the 2007-2009 recession could explain the muted effect of cheap gas on consumption. For example, the economy only in mid-2014 recovered the more than 7 million jobs lost during the downturn. "We don't seem to be getting the benefits from cheaper gasoline that we did when the economy was healthier," said veteran oil economist and independent consultant Phil Verleger.

Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said another reason Americans appeared wary of spending what they saved at the pump could be that more and more of them were approaching retirement. "They are conscious of that (and) they need to save more," Kaplan told Reuters in an interview.

HALF THE BENEFIT

I don't believe it

 

[Spinster]

The price at the pump has absolutely zero to do with consumerism. It's mandated and further manipulated at the state level by added taxes. To compare it to when the economy was more robust is ludicrous. The largest segment of the population are aging which no longer commute on a daily basis, nor do those who telecommute. Trucking still runs, folks still drive, public transportation is standing room only. Check out the freeways and highways sometime. Traffic has continued to climb and will as population increases. People will continue to use gasoline even when they have to cut back on eating in restaurants, they'll open a can of soup instead.

 

[Claudette]

I'd like to see it hit $20.

Oh and Obama has nothing to do with it.

From what I've read domestic production is up and the ME oil has had to go lower to compete.

Competition is good and when I can fill my tank for $37 I'll take it.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I'd like to see it hit $20.

Oh and Obama has nothing to do with it.

From what I've read domestic production is up and the ME oil has had to go lower to compete.

Competition is good and when I can fill my tank for $37 I'll take it.

Obama is still happy to take credit for it.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

I'd like to see it hit $20.

Oh and Obama has nothing to do with it.

From what I've read domestic production is up and the ME oil has had to go lower to compete.

Competition is good and when I can fill my tank for $37 I'll take it.

Obama is still happy to take credit for it.

But the dickhead is proposing a $10 per barrel fee. He can't leave well enough alone.
He needs to be incarcerated.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

If it'll just stop any decline in the economy will be of some help...

Cheap oil won't juice the U.S. economy this time: Reuters poll
1 Feb.`16 | WASHINGTON(Reuters) - U.S. consumers are cautious about spending their windfall from cheap gasoline and are saving more, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll and official data, suggesting low oil prices are less of a boon for the U.S. economy than in the past.

Commerce Department data shows that the crude's 70 percent drop since mid-2014 cut households' annual spending on gasoline and other energy products by $115 billion, equivalent to roughly 0.5 percent of gross domestic product. At the same time, however, savings increased by $121 billion and while the data gives no indication where the money has come from, the survey suggests the windfall accounted for a significant part of the sum.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll shows 75 percent of 3,068 Americans who answered questions on gasoline savings said the extra money helped them cover basic needs and the majority have not used their windfall to buy big ticket items. Over 40 percent of respondents said the savings had helped them pay down debts, according to the Jan. 15-27 online poll, which had a credibility interval of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. "It obviously hurts less when I go to the grocery store," said Karen Joines, a recruiting firm product manager from Peachtree City, Georgia. Joines, who participated in the survey, estimates she saves $30 a week thanks to cheaper gasoline but has no plans for big purchases, in part because she worries low prices will not last.

Some economists say such doubts and the still-fresh scars of the 2007-2009 recession could explain the muted effect of cheap gas on consumption. For example, the economy only in mid-2014 recovered the more than 7 million jobs lost during the downturn. "We don't seem to be getting the benefits from cheaper gasoline that we did when the economy was healthier," said veteran oil economist and independent consultant Phil Verleger.

Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said another reason Americans appeared wary of spending what they saved at the pump could be that more and more of them were approaching retirement. "They are conscious of that (and) they need to save more," Kaplan told Reuters in an interview.

HALF THE BENEFIT

The reason people are hesitant in spending the extra money is because we have a president who will likely do something to fuck things up again and drive the price back up. Once consumers have confidence in a leader who will ensure energy price and ultimately consumer goods price relief they will spend with confidence and the economy will snowball.