Point of no Return

[DustyInfinity]

I talked to someone recently that I respect a great deal, and he told me that the US is now to the point where we can not avoid economic collapse. We have become Super Greece. We have so much debt that there is literally no solution. I'm not a pessimistic guy, but on a gut level we all know that we have become Greece. When Average Joe on the street can see it, collapse can't be far away. I don't want to make this a partisan thing. Both sides did it. I'm hoping someone can tell me I'm wrong. Our debt to GDP level might be unreconcilable. I asked my friend why politicians are not trying to do something about it. He laughed and said it wouldn't be politically popular. He again said it wouldn't matter anyway. It could be too late. They are just going to live it up until we go over the cliff. Please tell me I'm wrong. I've got kids. I'm no survival expert, and I can't tell him which berries he can eat. Ok, that might be a little overly dramatic, sorry. I'm not pointing fingers, because the blame is on all sides. Anyone see a way out of this?

 

[Pop23]

I talked to someone recently that I respect a great deal, and he told me that the US is now to the point where we can not avoid economic collapse. We have become Super Greece. We have so much debt that there is literally no solution. I'm not a pessimistic guy, but on a gut level we all know that we have become Greece. When Average Joe on the street can see it, collapse can't be far away. I don't want to make this a partisan thing. Both sides did it. I'm hoping someone can tell me I'm wrong. Our debt to GDP level might be unreconcilable. I asked my friend why politicians are not trying to do something about it. He laughed and said it wouldn't be politically popular. He again said it wouldn't matter anyway. It could be too late. They are just going to live it up until we go over the cliff. Please tell me I'm wrong. I've got kids. I'm no survival expert, and I can't tell him which berries he can eat. Ok, that might be a little overly dramatic, sorry. I'm not pointing fingers, because the blame is on all sides. Anyone see a way out of this?

If not already their, we are damn close and I don't see it stopping anytime soon.

 

[TNHarley]

Buy plenty of guns and ammo.

 

[Doc1]

I talked to someone recently that I respect a great deal, and he told me that the US is now to the point where we can not avoid economic collapse. We have become Super Greece. We have so much debt that there is literally no solution. I'm not a pessimistic guy, but on a gut level we all know that we have become Greece. When Average Joe on the street can see it, collapse can't be far away. I don't want to make this a partisan thing. Both sides did it. I'm hoping someone can tell me I'm wrong. Our debt to GDP level might be unreconcilable. I asked my friend why politicians are not trying to do something about it. He laughed and said it wouldn't be politically popular. He again said it wouldn't matter anyway. It could be too late. They are just going to live it up until we go over the cliff. Please tell me I'm wrong. I've got kids. I'm no survival expert, and I can't tell him which berries he can eat. Ok, that might be a little overly dramatic, sorry. I'm not pointing fingers, because the blame is on all sides. Anyone see a way out of this?

Well, Rump isn't helping but then none of them would. Deutsche Bank was just down graded to BBB+, they have cut 10,000 jobs. Italy is crashing and most banks still have far much in derivatives. 2008 will look like a party.

 

[Mac1958]

Anyone see a way out of this?

For what it's worth, I'm in the profession, so I'm pretty much neck-deep in this stuff. Here's my two cents, worth every penny:

In terms of an actual "collapse", I don't think that's something to worry about in the near or mid-range future. What we saw in 2008 was an economy literally hours from real collapse due to a structural problem (the collapse of the real estate market bubble and the derivatives that had created the bubble), and we're just not quite there right now.

The larger problem is that we're slowly suffocating ourselves. It currently costs us +/- $300 billion per year just to service our debt, to pay on the loans (bonds) that have sustained us for so long. That is going to continue to increase as we continue to add debt, and even more so if interest rates continue to climb for new debt.

So in the end, there are only two solves for this: (1) Time, as we pay down our debt/bonds, and (2) less borrowing, which is a function of taxing and spending. The chances of us spending significantly less are fairly small, so there will come a time before long where we'll see taxes increase quite a bit.

Bottom line, and this would be a longer discussion, we won't see Greece, but we will see developed Europe, where we'll have to make due with a 42-inch teevee instead of a 72-inch teevee, less wasted food at the end of our buffet pigout, and a smaller car instead of an Escalade. Is that a horrible thing? I guess that depends on us.
.

 

[Pop23]

Anyone see a way out of this?

For what it's worth, I'm in the profession, so I'm pretty much neck-deep in this stuff. Here's my two cents, worth every penny:

In terms of an actual "collapse", I don't think that's something to worry about in the near or mid-range future. What we saw in 2008 was an economy literally hours from real collapse due to a structural problem (the collapse of the real estate market bubble and the derivatives that had created the bubble), and we're just not quite there right now.

The larger problem is that we're slowly suffocating ourselves. It currently costs us +/- $300 billion per year just to service our debt, to pay on the loans (bonds) that have sustained us for so long. That is going to continue to increase as we continue to add debt, and even more so if interest rates continue to climb for new debt.

So in the end, there are only two solves for this: (1) Time, as we pay down our debt/bonds, and (2) less borrowing, which is a function of taxing and spending. The chances of us spending significantly less are fairly small, so there will come a time before long where we'll see taxes increase quite a bit.

Bottom line, and this would be a longer discussion, we won't see Greece, but we will see developed Europe, where we'll have to make due with a 42-inch teevee instead of a 72-inch teevee, less wasted food at the end of our buffet pigout, and a smaller car instead of an Escalade. Is that a horrible thing? I guess that depends on us.
.

^^^^^^ Buzz Kill

 

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

Those people stockpiling food don't seem so ass-backwards crazy now, do they?

 

[TNHarley]

Those people stockpiling food don't seem so ass-backwards crazy now, do they?

They are if the cans rust before the collapse happens! Lol

 

[Rambunctious]

I talked to someone recently that I respect a great deal, and he told me that the US is now to the point where we can not avoid economic collapse. We have become Super Greece. We have so much debt that there is literally no solution. I'm not a pessimistic guy, but on a gut level we all know that we have become Greece. When Average Joe on the street can see it, collapse can't be far away. I don't want to make this a partisan thing. Both sides did it. I'm hoping someone can tell me I'm wrong. Our debt to GDP level might be unreconcilable. I asked my friend why politicians are not trying to do something about it. He laughed and said it wouldn't be politically popular. He again said it wouldn't matter anyway. It could be too late. They are just going to live it up until we go over the cliff. Please tell me I'm wrong. I've got kids. I'm no survival expert, and I can't tell him which berries he can eat. Ok, that might be a little overly dramatic, sorry. I'm not pointing fingers, because the blame is on all sides. Anyone see a way out of this?

Is the sky falling too?

Look at our revenue uptick...we have nearly full employment...that is how you bring down the debt....we have investment numbers like we haven't seen since the 60's...every one in the world that has the means wants to be a part of it...turning around the economy and reducing the debt will be like turning an ocean liner...it won't happen fast but it will happen...your tirade of panic would have been more appropriate if said four years ago....while we were suffering under the do nothing Obama....Trump is fixing what Obama and Bush broke....

 

[S.J.]

Keep the Dems in the minority and we'll be ok.

 

[Skull Pilot]

 

[DustyInfinity]

Thanks Mac, I'm glad the shit isn't going to hit the fan soon. I still shake my head at the 'debt is not a bad thing' people. If thing's are not too broken to fix, I still see a problem. Austerity. It is proven that democrats and republicans both hate this word. Eventually we will have to spend less, or skyrocketing taxes won't do any good.

 

[Anathema]

EXCELLENT!!!!! Total economic collapse leads to total social collapse which in turn leads to Societal collapse and the opportunity for those willing to do what’s necessary to remake this country the way it should be.

Bring It On!!!!!!!

 

[whitehall]

The last time we had an economic collapse democrats were in the majority and the gay House Banking chairperson let Fannie Mae implode on his watch to pave the way for Hussein's election after the biggest October surprise in history. Be careful what you wish for lefties.

"I hope there is a recession so we can blame it on Trump"....political analyst and sometimes comedian Bill Maher

 

[DustyInfinity]

Is the sky falling too?

Look at our revenue uptick...we have nearly full employment...that is how you bring down the debt....we have investment numbers like we haven't seen since the 60's...every one in the world that has the means wants to be a part of it...turning around the economy and reducing the debt will be like turning an ocean liner...it won't happen fast but it will happen...your tirade of panic would have been more appropriate if said four years ago....while we were suffering under the do nothing Obama....Trump is fixing what Obama and Bush broke.

Rambunctious, I'm not a naturally pessimistic guy, but if we keep spending way beyond our means, nothing good can come of it. Firing up the economy again is awesome, but it is like going on a diet. I can run 5 miles every day, but if I come home and get out the ice cream, I'm going to gain weight. Greece failed, Europe is in bad shape, and we are doing the exact same thing. I'm glad it isn't imminent, but we don't want our kids to see the bottom fall out.

 

[Natural Citizen]

Anyone see a way out of this?

For what it's worth, I'm in the profession, so I'm pretty much neck-deep in this stuff. Here's my two cents, worth every penny:

In terms of an actual "collapse", I don't think that's something to worry about in the near or mid-range future. What we saw in 2008 was an economy literally hours from real collapse due to a structural problem (the collapse of the real estate market bubble and the derivatives that had created the bubble), and we're just not quite there right now.

The larger problem is that we're slowly suffocating ourselves. It currently costs us +/- $300 billion per year just to service our debt, to pay on the loans (bonds) that have sustained us for so long. That is going to continue to increase as we continue to add debt, and even more so if interest rates continue to climb for new debt.

So in the end, there are only two solves for this: (1) Time, as we pay down our debt/bonds, and (2) less borrowing, which is a function of taxing and spending. The chances of us spending significantly less are fairly small, so there will come a time before long where we'll see taxes increase quite a bit.

Bottom line, and this would be a longer discussion, we won't see Greece, but we will see developed Europe, where we'll have to make due with a 42-inch teevee instead of a 72-inch teevee, less wasted food at the end of our buffet pigout, and a smaller car instead of an Escalade. Is that a horrible thing? I guess that depends on us.
.

A 50% drop in the market is quite possible. We'll see a correction soon.

Then it'll get jiggy.

The path we're on is unsustainable. We can;t kee pmonetizing debt. Our dollar is worth 4 cents right now if we compare it to purchasing power.

I'm buying more gold while it's low.

 

[Mac1958]

Anyone see a way out of this?

For what it's worth, I'm in the profession, so I'm pretty much neck-deep in this stuff. Here's my two cents, worth every penny:

In terms of an actual "collapse", I don't think that's something to worry about in the near or mid-range future. What we saw in 2008 was an economy literally hours from real collapse due to a structural problem (the collapse of the real estate market bubble and the derivatives that had created the bubble), and we're just not quite there right now.

The larger problem is that we're slowly suffocating ourselves. It currently costs us +/- $300 billion per year just to service our debt, to pay on the loans (bonds) that have sustained us for so long. That is going to continue to increase as we continue to add debt, and even more so if interest rates continue to climb for new debt.

So in the end, there are only two solves for this: (1) Time, as we pay down our debt/bonds, and (2) less borrowing, which is a function of taxing and spending. The chances of us spending significantly less are fairly small, so there will come a time before long where we'll see taxes increase quite a bit.

Bottom line, and this would be a longer discussion, we won't see Greece, but we will see developed Europe, where we'll have to make due with a 42-inch teevee instead of a 72-inch teevee, less wasted food at the end of our buffet pigout, and a smaller car instead of an Escalade. Is that a horrible thing? I guess that depends on us.
.

A 50% drop in the market is quite possible. We'll see a correction soon.

Then it'll get jiggy.

The path we're on is unsustainable. We can;t kee pmonetizing debt. Our dollar is worth 4 cents right now if we compare it to purchasing power.

I'm buying more gold while it's low.

A 50% market drop would be a perfectly normal bear market after a long bull. That's fine.

The question is whether it would be a normal, healthy, cyclical bear, or a structural bear, as we had in 2008.

I don't see the latter right now. Very few do.

By the way, since 1915, gold has average something like a 2.15% return.
.

 

[jwoodie]

Asymptotic debt curves do not exist in the real world. Currently, the U.S. is the world's monetary safe haven. But at some point, devaluation (official or inflationary) will have to kick in. The question then becomes one of which currency is falling the fastest. Ironically, the slowest horse in this race will be the winner.

 

[Skull Pilot]

Thanks Mac, I'm glad the shit isn't going to hit the fan soon. I still shake my head at the 'debt is not a bad thing' people. If thing's are not too broken to fix, I still see a problem. Austerity. It is proven that democrats and republicans both hate this word. Eventually we will have to spend less, or skyrocketing taxes won't do any good.

And you know what?

The country won't implode until after I'm dead and gone

I decided to take the old Serenity prayer to heart.

I used to rail about the debt and the corruption of our government but the fact is no one cares and I can't change it.

So I'll accept it and worry about keeping as much of my own money as I can out of the hands of the fucking morons in the government

 

[Rustic]

I talked to someone recently that I respect a great deal, and he told me that the US is now to the point where we can not avoid economic collapse. We have become Super Greece. We have so much debt that there is literally no solution. I'm not a pessimistic guy, but on a gut level we all know that we have become Greece. When Average Joe on the street can see it, collapse can't be far away. I don't want to make this a partisan thing. Both sides did it. I'm hoping someone can tell me I'm wrong. Our debt to GDP level might be unreconcilable. I asked my friend why politicians are not trying to do something about it. He laughed and said it wouldn't be politically popular. He again said it wouldn't matter anyway. It could be too late. They are just going to live it up until we go over the cliff. Please tell me I'm wrong. I've got kids. I'm no survival expert, and I can't tell him which berries he can eat. Ok, that might be a little overly dramatic, sorry. I'm not pointing fingers, because the blame is on all sides. Anyone see a way out of this?

Yep, career politicians have been fucking the country over for many, many decades... and progressives keep on voting them in...