"Reasonable" gun control vs "gun nut gun control"

[Brain357]

We have the most guns by far, but not the lowest crime rates.

and other countries have extreme gun control and higher gun murder rates.....culture, not guns.

Then why do you keep insisting gun ownership effects crime rates?

because armed people do lower the crime rate...but it doesn't make it zero...and other factors can overcome an armed citizenship...like chicago...where the gangs control their aldermen....and keep the police levels low, prevent arrest and help keep gang members out of jail...

And only so many people are carrying guns, that leaves a lot of people not carrying guns...and criminals run away from someone who pulls a gun.....walk down a block and attack someone who doesn't have a gun.......

but...the person with the pistol stopped their criminal attack......

The leading way to reduce gun crime....arrest criminals who use guns and keep them locked up.....and yet you see over and over that prosecutors and judges do not do this......

Well I agree with your last statement. Would be nice if we actually reformed criminals.

Well....I'll settle for keeping them locked up....

here we go a list, side by side of the papers and what they show...

Of course, the single paper that Shermer cites was mentioned and discussed at length in the review of the literature that Lott provided in More Guns, Less Crime (click on screen shots to make them larger). Unfortunately, Scientific American wasn’t willing to allow a link to this list of papers.

Reforming seems more optimal as then you don't have to pay to jail them forever. But locked up is better than out committing more crimes.

 

[2aguy]

and other countries have extreme gun control and higher gun murder rates.....culture, not guns.

Then why do you keep insisting gun ownership effects crime rates?

because armed people do lower the crime rate...but it doesn't make it zero...and other factors can overcome an armed citizenship...like chicago...where the gangs control their aldermen....and keep the police levels low, prevent arrest and help keep gang members out of jail...

And only so many people are carrying guns, that leaves a lot of people not carrying guns...and criminals run away from someone who pulls a gun.....walk down a block and attack someone who doesn't have a gun.......

but...the person with the pistol stopped their criminal attack......

The leading way to reduce gun crime....arrest criminals who use guns and keep them locked up.....and yet you see over and over that prosecutors and judges do not do this......

Well I agree with your last statement. Would be nice if we actually reformed criminals.

Well....I'll settle for keeping them locked up....

here we go a list, side by side of the papers and what they show...

Of course, the single paper that Shermer cites was mentioned and discussed at length in the review of the literature that Lott provided in More Guns, Less Crime (click on screen shots to make them larger). Unfortunately, Scientific American wasn’t willing to allow a link to this list of papers.

Reforming seems more optimal as then you don't have to pay to jail them forever. But locked up is better than out committing more crimes.

Brain......you can't reform killers....the other types....sure.....

 

[Brain357]

Then why do you keep insisting gun ownership effects crime rates?

because armed people do lower the crime rate...but it doesn't make it zero...and other factors can overcome an armed citizenship...like chicago...where the gangs control their aldermen....and keep the police levels low, prevent arrest and help keep gang members out of jail...

And only so many people are carrying guns, that leaves a lot of people not carrying guns...and criminals run away from someone who pulls a gun.....walk down a block and attack someone who doesn't have a gun.......

but...the person with the pistol stopped their criminal attack......

The leading way to reduce gun crime....arrest criminals who use guns and keep them locked up.....and yet you see over and over that prosecutors and judges do not do this......

Well I agree with your last statement. Would be nice if we actually reformed criminals.

Well....I'll settle for keeping them locked up....

here we go a list, side by side of the papers and what they show...

Of course, the single paper that Shermer cites was mentioned and discussed at length in the review of the literature that Lott provided in More Guns, Less Crime (click on screen shots to make them larger). Unfortunately, Scientific American wasn’t willing to allow a link to this list of papers.

Reforming seems more optimal as then you don't have to pay to jail them forever. But locked up is better than out committing more crimes.

Brain......you can't reform killers....the other types....sure.....

A breakdown of what types of criminals are in jail would be interesting. But yes I expect killers to stay forever or end them.

 

[M14 Shooter]

Anyone else?

 

[Brain357]

Anyone else?

Why? OP has already been destroyed.

 

[GHook93]

Let us compare California and Vermont, the states with the most and least restrictive gun laws.

California - "Reasonable" gun control
CA gun laws require that:
-All transfers must be through a dealer, thus...
-All transfers undergo a background check
-All transfers undergo a 10-day waiting period (ruled unconstitutional 8/2014)
-All firearms must be registered
-Handgun purchases require a handgun safety certificate-– a permit.that requires training and a test
-Ban on ‘assault weapons’, effective 1 JUN 1989
-Ban on magazines that hold more than 10 rounds
-Ban on NFA machineguns
-Restrictive "may issue" concealed carry permits
-Restrictive open carry

% of murders in US committed with a firearm: 69.36 (8855/12765)
% of murders in CA committed with a firearm: 69.39 (1304/1879)

% US population in CA: 12.12%
% US murders in CA: 14.71
% US murders with a gun in CA 14.72

Vermont - "Gun nut gun control"
VT gun control law sates:
-No gun owners are licensed
-No firearm must be registered
-No ban on ‘assault weapons’
-No ban on magazines that hold more than 10 rounds
-No ban on NFA weapons
-Concealed carry legal w/o permit for residents and non-residents
-Open carry legal w/o permit for residents and non-residents

% of murders in US committed with a firearm: 69.36 (8855/12765)
% of murders in VT committed with a firearm: 55.55 (5/9)

% US population in VT: 1.9648%
% US murders in VT: 0.075%
% US murders with a gun in VT 0.059%

Short version:
CA has far more restrictive gun control than Vermont
Per-capita gun-related murder in CA significantly higher than the the US as a whole
Per-capita gun-related murder in VT significantly lower than the US as a whole.

How can this be?

People don't want to hear it or face the fact, but VT has a small black population. CA has a large black (and illegal population).

 

[Rustic]

Let us compare California and Vermont, the states with the most and least restrictive gun laws.

California - "Reasonable" gun control
CA gun laws require that:
-All transfers must be through a dealer, thus...
-All transfers undergo a background check
-All transfers undergo a 10-day waiting period (ruled unconstitutional 8/2014)
-All firearms must be registered
-Handgun purchases require a handgun safety certificate-– a permit.that requires training and a test
-Ban on ‘assault weapons’, effective 1 JUN 1989
-Ban on magazines that hold more than 10 rounds
-Ban on NFA machineguns
-Restrictive "may issue" concealed carry permits
-Restrictive open carry

% of murders in US committed with a firearm: 69.36 (8855/12765)
% of murders in CA committed with a firearm: 69.39 (1304/1879)

% US population in CA: 12.12%
% US murders in CA: 14.71
% US murders with a gun in CA 14.72

Vermont - "Gun nut gun control"
VT gun control law sates:
-No gun owners are licensed
-No firearm must be registered
-No ban on ‘assault weapons’
-No ban on magazines that hold more than 10 rounds
-No ban on NFA weapons
-Concealed carry legal w/o permit for residents and non-residents
-Open carry legal w/o permit for residents and non-residents

% of murders in US committed with a firearm: 69.36 (8855/12765)
% of murders in VT committed with a firearm: 55.55 (5/9)

% US population in VT: 1.9648%
% US murders in VT: 0.075%
% US murders with a gun in VT 0.059%

Short version:
CA has far more restrictive gun control than Vermont
Per-capita gun-related murder in CA significantly higher than the the US as a whole
Per-capita gun-related murder in VT significantly lower than the US as a whole.

How can this be?

People don't want to hear it or face the fact, but VT has a small black population. CA has a large black (and illegal population).

Common sense eludes our commander in chief so... Facts always get in his way.

 

[Andylusion]

Then why do you keep insisting gun ownership effects crime rates?

because armed people do lower the crime rate...but it doesn't make it zero...and other factors can overcome an armed citizenship...like chicago...where the gangs control their aldermen....and keep the police levels low, prevent arrest and help keep gang members out of jail...

And only so many people are carrying guns, that leaves a lot of people not carrying guns...and criminals run away from someone who pulls a gun.....walk down a block and attack someone who doesn't have a gun.......

but...the person with the pistol stopped their criminal attack......

The leading way to reduce gun crime....arrest criminals who use guns and keep them locked up.....and yet you see over and over that prosecutors and judges do not do this......

Well I agree with your last statement. Would be nice if we actually reformed criminals.

Well....I'll settle for keeping them locked up....

here we go a list, side by side of the papers and what they show...

Of course, the single paper that Shermer cites was mentioned and discussed at length in the review of the literature that Lott provided in More Guns, Less Crime (click on screen shots to make them larger). Unfortunately, Scientific American wasn’t willing to allow a link to this list of papers.

Reforming seems more optimal as then you don't have to pay to jail them forever. But locked up is better than out committing more crimes.

Brain......you can't reform killers....the other types....sure.....

I and dubious of even the other types.

My parents church had a convicted thief contact them for help when he was released. They put him up, free food, free housing, free training, and set him up with an agency that specialized in getting convicts jobs.

He got the job.... quit the job... robbed THE CHURCH.... the very people helping him out.... was caught, and is now back in prison.

People keep making excuses "how can he pay for stuff? how can he get a job? How can he buy food?"

This guy had everything, literally everything handed to him on a silver platter, and he still, even with all his needs met, he still went out and started stealing again.

Reform? I'll tell you how that guy is reformed. You cut off his hand. When he loses his hand, and walks around with the nick name 'stumpy'.... he'll be 'reformed'. Short of that... not a chance. That guy will steal again every single time we as a society are stupid enough to let him out.

 

[KissMy]

What about all those other cities where everyone can carry a gun like St. Louis where the wife of Missouri Governor got robbed at gunpoint?

 

[2aguy]

What about all those other cities where everyone can carry a gun like St. Louis where the wife of Missouri Governor got robbed at gunpoint?

Look at those cities......the majority of them are run by democrats....a republican run city on that list is an anomoly....soft on crime causes gun violence....

For example.....California just turned a felony for stealing a gun into a misdemeanor....in order to clear out their jails....so they are allowing known gun offenders back on the street....you know, the ones either pulling the trigger themselves or supplying the guns to those who do the shooting.....

What sense does that make?

 

[2aguy]

What about all those other cities where everyone can carry a gun like St. Louis where the wife of Missouri Governor got robbed at gunpoint?

St. Louis, Missouri has had a democrat mayor since 1949.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

And just one more reminder as to why I thank god every single fucking day that I no longer live in California.

 

[2aguy]

What about all those other cities where everyone can carry a gun like St. Louis where the wife of Missouri Governor got robbed at gunpoint?

St. Louis, Missouri has had a democrat mayor since 1949.

this is why you have more gun crime in these cities...democrat crime control policies...or, democrat soft on crime policies...


California Just Proved Once Again That Going Easy On Criminals Results In More Crime

Back in 2014, nearly 60% of Californians voted in favor of Proposition 47, which sought to thin out jails and prisons by downgrading many "nonviolent, nonserious" felonies to misdemeanors and allowing some prisoners to be eligible for re-sentencing for more lenient terms (see summary below). The measure ostensibly saved the state millions in incarceration costs, but while that particular budget line might look better, the state and its residents have suffered as a result.

Since Prop 47 went into effect, arrests are down 30% while violent crime in Los Angeles is up a devastating 40%. And it's not just L.A. — Southern California as a whole is feeling the deleterious effects of the law's "lighter" touch.

A major reason for the stunning increase in violent crime is the reckless way Prop 47 downgraded some offenses, including theft of a firearm, which used to be a felony but which is now treated as a misdemeanor, along with several other serious property theft offenses.

The overall effect of downgrading so many offenses, along with the increasingly hostile attitude among many communities toward police officers (the "Ferguson Effect"), has resulted in officers deciding it's simply not worth it to go after criminals for the "minor" things — many of which lead to worse crimes.

"Without any real consequences, criminals were given a green light to steal more weapons and therefore commit more crimes," contends FOX 11 Los Angeles' VP Bob Cook in a recent op-ed.


"With so many crimes downgraded from felonies to misdemeanors, police officers in many instances felt it was not worth it to make arrests for these offenses. This has become especially true at a time when police conduct has come under increased scrutiny at every turn. Officers don’t want to be the next media case over a misdemeanor."

 

[2aguy]

What about all those other cities where everyone can carry a gun like St. Louis where the wife of Missouri Governor got robbed at gunpoint?

And keep in mind....

We went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 16.3 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2017...guess what happened...


-- gun murder down 49%
--gun crime down 75%
--violent crime down 72%

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.
Concealed carry permit number....
New Study: Over 16.3 million concealed handgun permits, last year saw the largest increase ever in number of permits - Crime Prevention Research Center

actual study...

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States: 2017 by John R. Lott :: SSRN
=======

 

[miketx]

Vermont, with the least restrictive gun laws in the US...

Murder rate: 0.47/100k
Gun related murder rate: 0.26/100k

Please compare this to the rest of the Western world.

They don't have a single large city. No intelligent person would compare it to CA or any state with large cities. Your OP is a joke.

So, you are saying that larger cities have more "gun crime" that do smaller rural areas, and we know democrats run most of the big cities. I detect a pattern.....

 

[KissMy]

What about all those other cities where everyone can carry a gun like St. Louis where the wife of Missouri Governor got robbed at gunpoint?

And keep in mind....

We went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 16.3 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2017...guess what happened...


-- gun murder down 49%
--gun crime down 75%
--violent crime down 72%

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.
Concealed carry permit number....
New Study: Over 16.3 million concealed handgun permits, last year saw the largest increase ever in number of permits - Crime Prevention Research Center

actual study...

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States: 2017 by John R. Lott :: SSRN
=======

Crime has been falling everywhere since Bill Clinton was elected. The problem is the murder rate is higher in large cities like New Orleans, Kansas City & St. Louis that don't require permits to CCW or "Shall Issue CCW" than in gun restrictive cities like New York, DC & Chicago.

Chicago allowed CCW in 2014 & now murder rate exploded!

 

[2aguy]

What about all those other cities where everyone can carry a gun like St. Louis where the wife of Missouri Governor got robbed at gunpoint?

And keep in mind....

We went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 16.3 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2017...guess what happened...


-- gun murder down 49%
--gun crime down 75%
--violent crime down 72%

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.
Concealed carry permit number....
New Study: Over 16.3 million concealed handgun permits, last year saw the largest increase ever in number of permits - Crime Prevention Research Center

actual study...

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States: 2017 by John R. Lott :: SSRN
=======

Crime has been falling everywhere since Bill Clinton was elected. The problem is the murder rate is higher in large cities like New Orleans, Kansas City & St. Louis that don't require permits to CCW or "Shall Issue CCW" than in gun restrictive cities like New York, DC & Chicago.

Chicago allowed CCW in 2014 & now murder rate exploded!

Yeah.....permits have nothing to do with the crime rate or gun crime....criminals cannot legally buy, own or carry guns....and Chicago shows you don't know what you are talking about....Chicago has the same gun laws as New York and L.A. and has more gun murders than both of them put together.

And again, from your previuos chart.......almost every major city on your list is controlled by democrats...and as it was shown in the link to California, they are soft on crime, they under man the police force and attack them, and then they let criminals who commit gun crime go free...

And your point....is no point at all....as the link on actual crime stats show, more guns do not = more gun crime......more criminals not arrested and put in jail = more gun crime.

 

[2aguy]

What about all those other cities where everyone can carry a gun like St. Louis where the wife of Missouri Governor got robbed at gunpoint?

And keep in mind....

We went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 16.3 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2017...guess what happened...


-- gun murder down 49%
--gun crime down 75%
--violent crime down 72%

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.
Concealed carry permit number....
New Study: Over 16.3 million concealed handgun permits, last year saw the largest increase ever in number of permits - Crime Prevention Research Center

actual study...

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States: 2017 by John R. Lott :: SSRN
=======

Crime has been falling everywhere since Bill Clinton was elected. The problem is the murder rate is higher in large cities like New Orleans, Kansas City & St. Louis that don't require permits to CCW or "Shall Issue CCW" than in gun restrictive cities like New York, DC & Chicago.

Chicago allowed CCW in 2014 & now murder rate exploded!

And notice....the increase began in 2014after the Ferguson police shooting.......democrats decided it was a smart move to attack police than to arrest and lock up criminals....

Chicago, which you name...is short 2,000 police officers. 1,000 because they spend money on everything except more police, and another 1,000 because of vacations and sick leave. They are down 2,000 effective officers. Then, on top of that, they attacked their police with left wing social justice warriors....the democrat politicians allowed the ACLU to dictate police policy......they now have so much paperwork per stop that those stops have been reduced. Then you have the attacks on police themselves by SWJ warriors and the police non emergency contacts have gone down 80%.....then you look at the catch and release policy of Chicago prosecutors and judges, where being a repeat gun offender gets you out of jail in less than 2 years......instead of 30 years....

Add to that the fact that gangs control many of the cities aldermen....and then these pet aldermen vote down more police patrols, more police resources in the high crime areas, and use the influence of the aldermen to get their shooters out on bail....

That is why Chicago has the high gun crime rate, not normal, law abiding people who go through 16 hours of training and pay hundreds of dollars just to exercise their 2nd Amendment Right...

Please do some research...it would help your posts...

 

[2aguy]

What about all those other cities where everyone can carry a gun like St. Louis where the wife of Missouri Governor got robbed at gunpoint?

And keep in mind....

We went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 16.3 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2017...guess what happened...


-- gun murder down 49%
--gun crime down 75%
--violent crime down 72%

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.
Concealed carry permit number....
New Study: Over 16.3 million concealed handgun permits, last year saw the largest increase ever in number of permits - Crime Prevention Research Center

actual study...

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States: 2017 by John R. Lott :: SSRN
=======

Crime has been falling everywhere since Bill Clinton was elected. The problem is the murder rate is higher in large cities like New Orleans, Kansas City & St. Louis that don't require permits to CCW or "Shall Issue CCW" than in gun restrictive cities like New York, DC & Chicago.

Chicago allowed CCW in 2014 & now murder rate exploded!

And actual research on the topic of armed citizens doesn't support your post....


http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Bartley-Cohen-Economic-Inquiry-1998.pdf


The Effect of Concealed Weapons Laws: An Extreme Bound Analysis by William Alan Bartley and Mark A Cohen, published in Economic Inquiry, April 1998 (Copy available here)

.....we find strong support for the hypothesis that the right-to-carry laws are associated with a decrease in the trend in violent crime rates.....

Paper........CCW does not increase police deaths...

http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Mustard-JLE-Polic-Deaths-Gun-Control.pdf

This paper uses state-level data from 1984–96 to examine how right-to-carry laws and waiting periods affect the felonious deaths of police. Some people oppose concealed weapons carry laws because they believe these laws jeopardize law enforcement officials, who risk their lives to protect the citizenry. This paper strongly rejects this contention. States that allowed law-abiding citizens to carry concealed weapons had a slightly higher likelihood of having a felonious police death and slightly higher police death rates prior to the law. After enactment of the right-to-carry laws, states exhibit a reduced likelihood of having a felonious police death rate and slightly lower rates of police deaths. States that implement waiting periods have slightly lower felonious police death rates both before and after the law. Allowing law-abiding citizens to carry concealed weapons does not endanger the lives of officers and may help reduce their risk of being killed

========

http://johnrlott.tripod.com/tideman.pdf


Does the Right to Carry Concealed Handguns Deter Countable Crimes? Only a Count Analysis Can Say By FLORENZ PLASSMANN AND T. NICOLAUS TIDEMAN, Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001

However, for all three crime categories the levels in years 2 and 3 after adoption of a right-to-carry law are significantly below the levels in the years before the adoption of the law, which suggests that there is generally a deterrent effect and that it takes about 1 year for this effect to emerge.

=======

http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/323313

Testing for the Effects of Concealed Weapons Laws: Specification Errors and Robustness*




Carlisle E. Moody
College of William and Mary
Overall, right‐to‐carry concealed weapons laws tend to reduce violent crime. The effect on property crime is more uncertain. I find evidence that these laws also reduce burglary.
====
http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Helland-Tabarrok-Placebo-Laws.pdf
Using Placebo Laws to Test “More Guns, Less Crime”∗ Eric Helland and Alexander Tabarrok

We also find, however, that the cross equation restrictions implied by the Lott-Mustard theory are supported.
-----
Surprisingly, therefore, we conclude that there is considerable support for the hypothesis that shall-issue laws cause criminals to substitute away from crimes against persons and towards crimes against property.
===========
http://johnrlott.tripod.com/Maltz.pdf


Right-to-Carry Concealed Weapon Laws and Homicide in Large U.S. Counties: The Effect on Weapon Types, Victim Characteristics, and Victim-Offender Relationships By DAVID E. OLSON AND MICHAEL D. MALTZ, Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001

Our results indicated that the direction of effect of the shall-issue law on total SHR homicide rates was similar to that obtained by Lott and Mustard, although the magnitude of the effect was somewhat smaller and was statistically significant at the 7 percent level. In our analysis, which included only counties with a 1977 population of 100,000 or more, laws allowing for concealed weapons were associated with a 6.52 percent reduction in total homicides (Table 2). By comparison, Lott and Mustard found the concealed weapon dummy variable to be associated with a 7.65 percent reduction in total homicides across all counties and a 9 percent reduction in homicides when only large counties (populations of 100,000 or more) were included.43

===============

This one shows the benefits, in the billions of CCW laws...

http://johnrlott.tripod.com/Plassmann_Whitley.pdf

COMMENTS Confirming ìMore Guns, Less Crimeî Florenz Plassmann* & John Whitley**

CONCLUSION Analyzing county-level data for the entire United States from 1977 to 2000, we find annual reductions in murder rates between 1.5% and 2.3% for each additional year that a right-to-carry law is in effect. For the first five years that such a law is in effect, the total benefit from reduced crimes usually ranges between about $2 and $3 billion per year. The results are very similar to earlier estimates using county-level data from 1977 to 1996. We appreciate the continuing effort that Ayres and Donohue have made in discussing the impact of right-to-carry laws on crime rates. Yet we believe that both the new evidence provided by them as well as our new results show consistently that right-to-carry laws reduce crime and save lives. Unfortunately, a few simple mistakes lead Ayres and Donohue to incorrectly claim that crime rates significantly increase after right-to-carry laws are initially adopted and to misinterpret the significance of their own estimates that examined the year-to-year impact of the law.

=============

http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content...An-Exercise-in-Replication.proof_.revised.pdf

~ The Impact of Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime: An Exercise in Replication1

Carlisle E. Moody College of William and Mary - Department of Economics, Virginia 23187, U.S.A. E-mail: [email protected] Thomas B. Marvell Justec Research, Virginia 23185, U.S.A. Paul R. Zimmerman U.S. Federal Trade Commission - Bureau of Economics, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Fasil Alemante College of William and Mary, Virginia 23187, U.S.A.


Abstract: In an article published in 2011, Aneja, Donohue and Zhang found that shall-issue or right-to-carry (RTC) concealed weapons laws have no effect on any crime except for a positive effect on assault. This paper reports a replication of their basic findings and some corresponding robustness checks, which reveal a serious omitted variable problem. Once corrected for omitted variables, the most robust result, confirmed using both county and state data, is that RTC laws significantly reduce murder. There is no robust, consistent evidence that RTC laws have any significant effect on other violent crimes, including assault. There is some weak evidence that RTC laws increase robbery and assault while decreasing rape. Given that the victim costs of murder and rape are much higher than the costs of robbery and assault, the evidence shows that RTC laws are socially beneficial.

=======

States with lower guns = higher murder....and assault weapon ban pointless..

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504851.2013.854294

An examination of the effects of concealed weapons laws and assault weapons bans on state-level murder rates
Mark Gius

Abstract
The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of state-level assault weapons bans and concealed weapons laws on state-level murder rates. Using data for the period 1980 to 2009 and controlling for state and year fixed effects, the results of the present study suggest that states with restrictions on the carrying of concealed weapons had higher gun-related murder rates than other states. It was also found that assault weapons bans did not significantly affect murder rates at the state level. These results suggest that restrictive concealed weapons laws may cause an increase in gun-related murders at the state level. The results of this study are consistent with some prior research in this area, most notably Lott and Mustard (1997).





Taking apart ayre and donahue one....




“The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws” by Carlisle e. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell, published in Econ Journal Watch, volume 5, number 3, September 2008 It is also available here..


Summary and Conclusion Many articles have been published finding that shall-issue laws reduce crime. Only one article, by Ayres and Donohue who employ a model that combines a dummy variable with a post-law trend, claims to find that shall-issue laws increase crime. However, the only way that they can produce the result that shall-issue laws increase crime is to confine the span of analysis to five years. We show, using their own estimates, that if they had extended their analysis by one more year, they would have concluded that these laws reduce crime. Since most states with shallissue laws have had these laws on the books for more than five years, and the law will presumably remain on the books for some time, the only relevant analysis extends beyond five years. We extend their analysis by adding three more years of data, control for the effects of crack cocaine, control for dynamic effects, and correct the standard errors for clustering. We find that there is an initial increase in crime due to passage of the shall-issue law that is dwarfed over time by the decrease in crime associated with the post-law trend. These results are very similar to those of Ayres and Donohue, properly interpreted. The modified Ayres and Donohue model finds that shall-issue laws significantly reduce murder and burglary across all the adopting states. These laws appear to significantly increase assault, and have no net effect on rape, robbery, larceny, or auto theft. However, in the long run only the trend coefficients matter. We estimate a net benefit of $450 million per year as a result of the passage of these laws. We also estimate that, up through 2000, there was a cumulative overall net benefit of these laws of $28 billion since their passage. We think that there is credible statistical evidence that these laws lower the costs of crime. But at the very least, the present study should neutralize any “more guns, more crime” thinking based on Ayres and Donohue’s work in the Stanford Law Review

 

[2aguy]

What about all those other cities where everyone can carry a gun like St. Louis where the wife of Missouri Governor got robbed at gunpoint?

And keep in mind....

We went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 16.3 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2017...guess what happened...


-- gun murder down 49%
--gun crime down 75%
--violent crime down 72%

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.
Concealed carry permit number....
New Study: Over 16.3 million concealed handgun permits, last year saw the largest increase ever in number of permits - Crime Prevention Research Center

actual study...

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States: 2017 by John R. Lott :: SSRN
=======

Crime has been falling everywhere since Bill Clinton was elected. The problem is the murder rate is higher in large cities like New Orleans, Kansas City & St. Louis that don't require permits to CCW or "Shall Issue CCW" than in gun restrictive cities like New York, DC & Chicago.

Chicago allowed CCW in 2014 & now murder rate exploded!

And over seas.....Britain banned and Confiscated guns from their population.......they can't buy handguns and only the rich and connected get to have a limited selection of hunting shotguns.....and the gun crime rate in London went up 42% last year.......here...our gun crime rate has gone down 75% as more people bought, owned and carried guns.....

Crime rise is biggest in a decade, ONS figures show

Ministers will also be concerned that the country is becoming increasingly violent in nature, with gun crime rising 23% to 6,375 offences, largely driven by an increase in the use of handguns. Knife crime has also jumped by 20% to 34,703 incidents – the highest level for seven years. The largest increase in knife crime came in London, which accounted for 40% of the rise.

Gun crime in London increases by 42% - BBC News

Gun crime offences in London surged by 42% in the last year, according to official statistics.
The Met Police's figures showed there were 2,544 gun crime offences from April 2016 to April 2017 compared to 1,793 offences from 2015 until 2016.
Knife crime also increased by 24% with 12,074 recorded offences from 2016 to 2017.

And the United States...what happened here?

We went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 16.3 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2017...guess what happened...


-- gun murder down 49%
--gun crime down 75%
--violent crime down 72%

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.
Concealed carry permit number....
New Study: Over 16.3 million concealed handgun permits, last year saw the largest increase ever in number of permits - Crime Prevention Research Center

actual study...

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States: 2017 by John R. Lott :: SSRN