martybegan
Diamond Member
- Apr 5, 2010
- 83,046
- 34,363
Republicans also have a balance that they have to perform. They didn't do that in 2018 and it cost them the House. The last Fox poll ad 87% of Democrats voting for Biden and 84% of Republicans would vote for Trump. Trump will have to move to the center.
House elections have nothing to do with Presidential Elections. Two different matrices, two different voting bases.
To a certain extent, yes
But for the Democrats to take over a heavily gerrymandered house, they needed a Yuge Democratic turnout
As it was, they received 9 million more votes than Republicans
Hillary only pulled 3 million more
A similar turnout will crush Trump
Or they needed to break up the Reagan coalition. President Reagan put together a coalition that consisted of rural voters and suburban voters. The suburban voters voted heavily for Democrats in 2018.
Gwinnett County was the base for Newt Gingrich's rise to power in the 80's. In 2012, Nathan Deal won the county by 12 points in his re-election effort. in 2014. In 2016, Clinton won Gwinnet by 6 points and Abrams won the county by 13 points in 2018.
In Texas, Clinton won 3 suburban House districts for the first time. 2 of the 3 House districts went Democrat. In Tarrant County Texas, Ted Cruz won by 16 points in 2012. Trump won by 8 points in 2016 and O'Rourke won by 1 in 2018.
What you are now losing are the non-governmental union voters.
What you are losing is suburban voters and especially suburban women.
according to the polls, and we know how accurate those can be.....