Bombur
VIP Member
- Jan 9, 2014
- 1,812
- 117
What "friction" are you referring to and how do you perceive this "natural splitting point" coming about?
It depends on the area but the friction is the competing needs of various groups. For example education funding for poor areas versus suburbs. A lot of policy will end up being targeted towards the poor areas which leaves the moderate Dems representing the middle class paying the bill.
Entitlement reform could be a place where the middle class may have to fight very hard to defend their own interests.
The funding for public education has been an issue for decades and it has never split the Dem party before so there is no reason to believe that it will do so now.
As far as entitlement reform goes that will unite the party since that threat is coming from the right rather than from within the party itself.
The Republican party is the party that is threatening to split and if it did the remnants would have the best shot at appealing to the blue dogs IMO.
The threat to entitlements is coming from the financial reality of entitlements not the political reality. Politicians would like to just ignore them but that is becoming increasingly difficult.
A third party in the US is unlikely no matter what but IMO the most likely scenario is the one I described.