Visions of 08? Stocks down

[Mac1958]

This ain't 2008. This isn't structural.

We were badly overdue, and we'll be fine.
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Folks believing "everything will be fine" is a very bearish sign.

Just sayin'....

A bear market would be fine. We need to return to normalcy.
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Mac- Don't you think a major bear market is already underway?

AFAIC, the last holdouts are the large caps. The small and mid-caps are already in bear territory. When the large caps capitulate........look out below!

We're right on the edge. S&P support is about 1820, and we bounced off that sucker today back up to 1859.

Will it be a bear? 50/50. An old fashioned bear wouldn't break my heart, another 15% to 20%. We piled big time into treasuries at the beginning of the year, so we haven't seen many losses and none of our clients have jumped off the ledge.

Yet.


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I see today's bounce as bearish. In my experience a market that is down strong intraday, then rallies back, but still closes down is a very bearish sign. A lot of buying power was used to rally prices, to no avail. Another wave down would not be unexpected.

Yup, could be.

I keep my eye on the 10-year Treasuries, and some pretty smart people are saying it could go to 1.5% or 1.6%.

Pretty wild.
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[IsaacNewton]

The market was long overdue for a healthy correction, investment brokers are saying its temporary.

 

[OKTexas]

What did the market do yesterday. My broker just called and let me know I was safe.

You need to find another broker, smart ones have had their accounts out of the market for months. I'm hearing predictions of an 11,000 Dow by the end of the year. These are the same ones that had folks out of the market in 2007-2009.

 

[Zander]

Folks believing "everything will be fine" is a very bearish sign.

Just sayin'....

A bear market would be fine. We need to return to normalcy.
.

Mac- Don't you think a major bear market is already underway?

AFAIC, the last holdouts are the large caps. The small and mid-caps are already in bear territory. When the large caps capitulate........look out below!

We're right on the edge. S&P support is about 1820, and we bounced off that sucker today back up to 1859.

Will it be a bear? 50/50. An old fashioned bear wouldn't break my heart, another 15% to 20%. We piled big time into treasuries at the beginning of the year, so we haven't seen many losses and none of our clients have jumped off the ledge.

Yet.


.

I see today's bounce as bearish. In my experience a market that is down strong intraday, then rallies back, but still closes down is a very bearish sign. A lot of buying power was used to rally prices, to no avail. Another wave down would not be unexpected.

Yup, could be.

I keep my eye on the 10-year Treasuries, and some pretty smart people are saying it could go to 1.5% or 1.6%.

Pretty wild.
.

Indeed.

Look at the spread between Junk andTreasuries...it's gone from around 3.5 to over 7.5

 

[Toro]

The market was long overdue for a healthy correction, investment brokers are saying its temporary.

It's not.

It's a bear market.

However, I expect the market to bottom some time in 2017. The average bear market - as defined by a 20% decline in the market - since WWII has lasted 12 months. More serious bear markets have lasted longer. The longest bear market lasted 2.5 years. The market topped in May 2015. From May of last year, 2.5 years is the end of next year. I suspect it won't last that long, but it will feel real bad. Thus, the bear ends early next year.

 

[Mac1958]

It's a bear market. However, I expect the market to bottom some time in 2017. The average bear market - as defined by a 20% decline in the market - since WWII has lasted 12 months. More serious bear markets have lasted longer. The longest bear market lasted 2.5 years. The market topped in May 2015. From May of last year, 2.5 years is the end of next year. I suspect it won't last that long, but it will feel real bad. Thus, the bear ends early next year.

I'm glad you bring up history, and it's important because it teaches us that bear markets are not the end of the world by any means.

Here's what I've been wondering recently: I wonder if the massive increases/improvements in technology and the velocity of information will decrease the length of bear markets.

Especially in this case, with such a ridiculous amount of cash on the sidelines.
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[rightwinger]

Looks like we get to see how effective Obamas financial reforms will be

 

[Redfish]

two things to consider

1. a falling market presents an outstanding buying opportunity

2. most of this is being driven by falling oil prices on the world market. It hurts the oil companies but cheap energy helps everyone else.

Its a temporary thing, relax------------------and buy.