Will the Middle East Implode?

[georgephillip]

Have the events of the past twenty-three years set in motion a chain of events that will lead to an implosion of today's Middle East? If so, was that the plan all along?

"Will the Middle East Implode? comprises four substantive chapters, each tackling what Michigan State University Distinguished Professor of International Relations Mohammed Ayoob identifies as sources of potential combustion in the region: the growing role of political Islam; the Israel-Palestine conflict; increased rivalry between regional powers alongside great power involvement in the region; and, Iran’s quest for nuclear capability."

Book Review Will the Middle East Implode by Mohammed Ayoob LSE Review of Books

 

[georgephillip]

"In the opening chapter, Ayoob argues that the Arab Spring has added to existing tensions in the Middle East by introducing a high degree of uncertainty in key areas of regime-nature, intra-societal balances, and inter-state relationships throughout the region.

"This, he argues, has moved an already volatile Middle East towards not only greater instability but also towards a potentially combustible state of affairs.

"As such, Ayoob sets the tone for the rest of the book, which is very much marked by a realistic, if pessimistic, take on a post-Arab Spring Middle East in which an implosion capable of engulfing the region and in turn having destabilising effects on the international security and economy is a real prospect."

Book Review Will the Middle East Implode by Mohammed Ayoob LSE Review of Books

 

[Rikurzhen]

I prefer to look at more fundamental drivers of social disruption, like the high birth rate, the high unemployment rate, the lack of exports, the low GDP growth rate.

Lots of poor people living close to the edge of starvation, those countries without oil exports having a tough time paying for the price-controlled food, kids going to college with the hope of climbing the social ladder only to graduate and not being able to find jobs, the government as employer of last resort being stretched to the limits.

It's factors like the above which fuel movements like the Arab Spring and political Islam - the root here is change is being sought because the present order isn't working. The problem is that the change won't solve the problem, the style of governance is really just window dressing.

Let's put it this way - if we exclude oil exports from the region, the entire billion+ people of MENA could disappear from the face of the earth and most of the rest of the world wouldn't notice.

Another aspect of how the fundamentals there are so out of tune with the rest of the world. From a UN report:

Interestingly, the report found that the total number of books translated into Arabic yearly is no more than 330, or one-fifth of those translated in a small country like Greece. Indeed, the total number of books translated into Arabic during the 1,000 years since the age of Caliph Al-Ma’moun [a ninth-century Arab ruler who was a patron of cultural interaction between Arab, Persian, and Greek scholars—WPR] to this day is less than those translated in Spain in one year.​

Government is built on a foundation of culture, government doesn't control culture or give it birth. The foundation is rotten and the problems that Ayoob is focusing on are all at the superstructure level.

 

[eagle1462010]

I prefer to look at more fundamental drivers of social disruption, like the high birth rate, the high unemployment rate, the lack of exports, the low GDP growth rate.

Lots of poor people living close to the edge of starvation, those countries without oil exports having a tough time paying for the price-controlled food, kids going to college with the hope of climbing the social ladder only to graduate and not being able to find jobs, the government as employer of last resort being stretched to the limits.

It's factors like the above which fuel movements like the Arab Spring and political Islam - the root here is change is being sought because the present order isn't working. The problem is that the change won't solve the problem, the style of governance is really just window dressing.

Let's put it this way - if we exclude oil exports from the region, the entire billion+ people of MENA could disappear from the face of the earth and most of the rest of the world wouldn't notice.

Another aspect of how the fundamentals there are so out of tune with the rest of the world. From a UN report:

Interestingly, the report found that the total number of books translated into Arabic yearly is no more than 330, or one-fifth of those translated in a small country like Greece. Indeed, the total number of books translated into Arabic during the 1,000 years since the age of Caliph Al-Ma’moun [a ninth-century Arab ruler who was a patron of cultural interaction between Arab, Persian, and Greek scholars—WPR] to this day is less than those translated in Spain in one year.​

Government is built on a foundation of culture, government doesn't control culture or give it birth. The foundation is rotten and the problems that Ayoob is focusing on are all at the superstructure level.

Good Post. I've pushed what caused the Arab Spring many times in the past. The increase of prices on food was a key factor. They couldn't feed their kids and that is a formula for massive uprisings. Even though the media and our Gov't was shouting they wanted Freedom. Smoke screen for inflated prices of goods in the world.

 

[eagle1462010]

Food and the Arab spring Let them eat baklava The Economist

From the start, food has played a bigger role in the upheavals than most people realise. Now, the Arab spring is making food problems worse.

They start with a peculiarity of the region: the Middle East and north Africa depend more on imported food than anywhere else. Most Arab countries buy half of what they eat from abroad and between 2007 and 2010, cereal imports to the region rose 13%, to 66m tonnes. Because they import so much, Arab countries suck in food inflation when world prices rise. In 2007-08, they spiked, with some staple crops doubling in price. In Egypt local food prices rose 37% in 2008-10.

The Arab spring was obviously about much more than food. But it played a role. “The food-price spike was the final nail in the coffin for regimes that were failing to deliver on their side of the social contract,” says Jane Harrigan of London's School of Oriental and African Studies.

Even if governments had done nothing, food inflation would have pushed up public spending, because most Arab states offset high world prices to keep food cheap in local terms. The cost of such policies is high. Food subsidies eat up some 4% of Egypt's budget; Morocco boosted spending on fuel and food subsidies to $5 billion this year. In reaction to the riots, most Arab countries increased their subsidies. Kuwait, for example, is providing free staple food to everyone for 14 months.

 

[Rikurzhen]

I prefer to look at more fundamental drivers of social disruption, like the high birth rate, the high unemployment rate, the lack of exports, the low GDP growth rate.

Lots of poor people living close to the edge of starvation, those countries without oil exports having a tough time paying for the price-controlled food, kids going to college with the hope of climbing the social ladder only to graduate and not being able to find jobs, the government as employer of last resort being stretched to the limits.

It's factors like the above which fuel movements like the Arab Spring and political Islam - the root here is change is being sought because the present order isn't working. The problem is that the change won't solve the problem, the style of governance is really just window dressing.

Let's put it this way - if we exclude oil exports from the region, the entire billion+ people of MENA could disappear from the face of the earth and most of the rest of the world wouldn't notice.

Another aspect of how the fundamentals there are so out of tune with the rest of the world. From a UN report:

Interestingly, the report found that the total number of books translated into Arabic yearly is no more than 330, or one-fifth of those translated in a small country like Greece. Indeed, the total number of books translated into Arabic during the 1,000 years since the age of Caliph Al-Ma’moun [a ninth-century Arab ruler who was a patron of cultural interaction between Arab, Persian, and Greek scholars—WPR] to this day is less than those translated in Spain in one year.​

Government is built on a foundation of culture, government doesn't control culture or give it birth. The foundation is rotten and the problems that Ayoob is focusing on are all at the superstructure level.

Good Post. I've pushed what caused the Arab Spring many times in the past. The increase of prices on food was a key factor. They couldn't feed their kids and that is a formula for massive uprisings. Even though the media and our Gov't was shouting they wanted Freedom. Smoke screen for inflated prices of goods in the world.

Exactly. Our foreign policy establishment and the foreign policy pundits are mostly nitwits. The problems in the region are not solvable with Freedom and Democracy and Human Rights. The rot is deeper. Putting a band-aid on a gangrenous limb doesn't save the limb from amputation.

 

[eagle1462010]

 

[eagle1462010]

Don't mean to harp on this, but this is a graph of rice prices which was also part of the food riots in 2008.
You can use this site Rice 1981-2014 Data Chart Calendar Forecast News to look at historical prices of commodities. Search various and you'll see how global commodity prices exploded over time. The first series of food riots were in 2008, right at the time of the economic crash. Second round late 2010 and 2011 the start of the Arab Spring.

By the below graph using the year 2000 to begin.........in 2008 ending date and you can see the massive increase of the price of rice which started global food riots.

 

[georgephillip]

Don't mean to harp on this, but this is a graph of rice prices which was also part of the food riots in 2008.
You can use this site Rice 1981-2014 Data Chart Calendar Forecast News to look at historical prices of commodities. Search various and you'll see how global commodity prices exploded over time. The first series of food riots were in 2008, right at the time of the economic crash. Second round late 2010 and 2011 the start of the Arab Spring.

By the below graph using the year 2000 to begin.........in 2008 ending date and you can see the massive increase of the price of rice which started global food riots.

Is there an accurate method of determining how much of that rising cost of food was due to financial speculation?

 

[Rikurzhen]

Which countries have the slack within which they can absorb higher food prices? What are the footsteps of mice in the West are thundering herds of elephants in many part of the world.

The problem is going to eventually boil down to that detailed in The Camp of the Saints.

 

[eagle1462010]

BTW. Kinda off topic. I challenge anyone who says we haven't had inflation to go to this site and look at historical commodity prices from 2000 forward. Look at Soy, and Corn while you are at it.

 

[idb]

"In the opening chapter, Ayoob argues that the Arab Spring has added to existing tensions in the Middle East by introducing a high degree of uncertainty in key areas of regime-nature, intra-societal balances, and inter-state relationships throughout the region.

"This, he argues, has moved an already volatile Middle East towards not only greater instability but also towards a potentially combustible state of affairs.

"As such, Ayoob sets the tone for the rest of the book, which is very much marked by a realistic, if pessimistic, take on a post-Arab Spring Middle East in which an implosion capable of engulfing the region and in turn having destabilising effects on the international security and economy is a real prospect."

Book Review Will the Middle East Implode by Mohammed Ayoob LSE Review of Books

It's an interesting question...is security and stability more important than human rights?

 

[Rikurzhen]

Don't mean to harp on this, but this is a graph of rice prices which was also part of the food riots in 2008.
You can use this site Rice 1981-2014 Data Chart Calendar Forecast News to look at historical prices of commodities. Search various and you'll see how global commodity prices exploded over time. The first series of food riots were in 2008, right at the time of the economic crash. Second round late 2010 and 2011 the start of the Arab Spring.

By the below graph using the year 2000 to begin.........in 2008 ending date and you can see the massive increase of the price of rice which started global food riots.

Is there an accurate method of determining how much of that rising cost of food was due to financial speculation?

At the end of the day someone has to eat the food that the speculators were speculating on, meaning that someone bought it. Meaning, that ultimately supply and demand was what determined the price. If speculators bid the price of wheat up to $100,000 per bushel, people will buy substitutes instead. The speculator who bought at $99,950 per bushel and was trying to offload at $100,000 is going to lose money, and so will those who buy his contract, up until the price per bushel reaches a level where a non-speculator will buy the wheat in order to use it.

 

[eagle1462010]

Don't mean to harp on this, but this is a graph of rice prices which was also part of the food riots in 2008.
You can use this site Rice 1981-2014 Data Chart Calendar Forecast News to look at historical prices of commodities. Search various and you'll see how global commodity prices exploded over time. The first series of food riots were in 2008, right at the time of the economic crash. Second round late 2010 and 2011 the start of the Arab Spring.

By the below graph using the year 2000 to begin.........in 2008 ending date and you can see the massive increase of the price of rice which started global food riots.

Is there an accurate method of determining how much of that rising cost of food was due to financial speculation?

That would take me more time to look into it. I did some of that research in the past but didn't save it or book mark it. Those who deny it are going to ditch it because they are making money at it. Commodity speculation was rampant during the same time frame of the Housing Market Crashes. The powers to be would have you focus only on that aspect.

They aren't going to talk about the Global Food Prices on the Arab Spring because they aren't going to throw themselves under the bus of REALITY. Speculation and the Markets caused most of this.

 

[Rikurzhen]

"In the opening chapter, Ayoob argues that the Arab Spring has added to existing tensions in the Middle East by introducing a high degree of uncertainty in key areas of regime-nature, intra-societal balances, and inter-state relationships throughout the region.

"This, he argues, has moved an already volatile Middle East towards not only greater instability but also towards a potentially combustible state of affairs.

"As such, Ayoob sets the tone for the rest of the book, which is very much marked by a realistic, if pessimistic, take on a post-Arab Spring Middle East in which an implosion capable of engulfing the region and in turn having destabilising effects on the international security and economy is a real prospect."

Book Review Will the Middle East Implode by Mohammed Ayoob LSE Review of Books

It's an interesting question...is security and stability more important than human rights?

The answer depends on where you're standing. It depends on what base level of security and stability you're standing on.

Is the added security provided by Homeland Security worth the human rights violation? No.
Did the ability to be able to exercise free speech and free religion mean very much in Sarajevo if doing so would put in the crosshairs of a sniper the moment you stepped out of your home? Better to have security.

 

[georgephillip]

Which countries have the slack within which they can absorb higher food prices? What are the footsteps of mice in the West are thundering herds of elephants in many part of the world.

The problem is going to eventually boil down to that detailed in The Camp of the Saints.

"William F. Buckley, Jr. praised the book in 2004 as 'a great novel' which raised questions on how to respond to massive illegal immigration.[9]

"In 2005 the conservative Chilton Williamsonpraised the book as 'one of the most uncompromising works of literary reaction in the 20th century.'[10]

"In 2001 the Southern Poverty Law Center reported that the novel had been published five times in the US and was 'widely revered by American white supremacists and is a sort of anti-immigration analog to The Turner Diaries.'"[11]

"The book returned to the bestseller list in 2011.

If you're right, Empire is about to blow-back on those who have gained the most from its colonial efforts.

The Camp of the Saints - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

 

[georgephillip]

"In the opening chapter, Ayoob argues that the Arab Spring has added to existing tensions in the Middle East by introducing a high degree of uncertainty in key areas of regime-nature, intra-societal balances, and inter-state relationships throughout the region.

"This, he argues, has moved an already volatile Middle East towards not only greater instability but also towards a potentially combustible state of affairs.

"As such, Ayoob sets the tone for the rest of the book, which is very much marked by a realistic, if pessimistic, take on a post-Arab Spring Middle East in which an implosion capable of engulfing the region and in turn having destabilising effects on the international security and economy is a real prospect."

Book Review Will the Middle East Implode by Mohammed Ayoob LSE Review of Books

It's an interesting question...is security and stability more important than human rights?

Apparently, there are many Iraqis who wish Saddam had never crossed his masters in DC.

 

[eagle1462010]

Don't mean to harp on this, but this is a graph of rice prices which was also part of the food riots in 2008.
You can use this site Rice 1981-2014 Data Chart Calendar Forecast News to look at historical prices of commodities. Search various and you'll see how global commodity prices exploded over time. The first series of food riots were in 2008, right at the time of the economic crash. Second round late 2010 and 2011 the start of the Arab Spring.

By the below graph using the year 2000 to begin.........in 2008 ending date and you can see the massive increase of the price of rice which started global food riots.

Is there an accurate method of determining how much of that rising cost of food was due to financial speculation?

At the end of the day someone has to eat the food that the speculators were speculating on, meaning that someone bought it. Meaning, that ultimately supply and demand was what determined the price. If speculators bid the price of wheat up to $100,000 per bushel, people will buy substitutes instead. The speculator who bought at $99,950 per bushel and was trying to offload at $100,000 is going to lose money, and so will those who buy his contract, up until the price per bushel reaches a level where a non-speculator will buy the wheat in order to use it.

Look at the site I posted and look at the prices and the spikes on the graph. If those spikes are caused by supply and demand in that short of time, then I have water front property to sell you in Arizona. Again, look at the Soy prices......

All the substitute prices exploded in price as well. Prompting food riots in the world and the arab spring. It is well documented to those that want to look.

But again, I'm not sure I want a full engagement on this topic because I'm not sure it goes off topic too much.

 

[georgephillip]

Don't mean to harp on this, but this is a graph of rice prices which was also part of the food riots in 2008.
You can use this site Rice 1981-2014 Data Chart Calendar Forecast News to look at historical prices of commodities. Search various and you'll see how global commodity prices exploded over time. The first series of food riots were in 2008, right at the time of the economic crash. Second round late 2010 and 2011 the start of the Arab Spring.

By the below graph using the year 2000 to begin.........in 2008 ending date and you can see the massive increase of the price of rice which started global food riots.

Is there an accurate method of determining how much of that rising cost of food was due to financial speculation?

That would take me more time to look into it. I did some of that research in the past but didn't save it or book mark it. Those who deny it are going to ditch it because they are making money at it. Commodity speculation was rampant during the same time frame of the Housing Market Crashes. The powers to be would have you focus only on that aspect.

They aren't going to talk about the Global Food Prices on the Arab Spring because they aren't going to throw themselves under the bus of REALITY. Speculation and the Markets caused most of this.

Thanks. I think I've got a few sources but they are mostly Marxists and won't be considered credible by many. They did open my eyes a few years ago to the consequences of doubling the price of wheat and how that affected prices in the US ( adding about ten cents to the price of a loaf of bread) compared with the cost of those who bought the raw commodity and baked their own bread.

 

[georgephillip]

Don't mean to harp on this, but this is a graph of rice prices which was also part of the food riots in 2008.
You can use this site Rice 1981-2014 Data Chart Calendar Forecast News to look at historical prices of commodities. Search various and you'll see how global commodity prices exploded over time. The first series of food riots were in 2008, right at the time of the economic crash. Second round late 2010 and 2011 the start of the Arab Spring.

By the below graph using the year 2000 to begin.........in 2008 ending date and you can see the massive increase of the price of rice which started global food riots.

Is there an accurate method of determining how much of that rising cost of food was due to financial speculation?

At the end of the day someone has to eat the food that the speculators were speculating on, meaning that someone bought it. Meaning, that ultimately supply and demand was what determined the price. If speculators bid the price of wheat up to $100,000 per bushel, people will buy substitutes instead. The speculator who bought at $99,950 per bushel and was trying to offload at $100,000 is going to lose money, and so will those who buy his contract, up until the price per bushel reaches a level where a non-speculator will buy the wheat in order to use it.

Look at the site I posted and look at the prices and the spikes on the graph. If those spikes are caused by supply and demand in that short of time, then I have water front property to sell you in Arizona. Again, look at the Soy prices......

All the substitute prices exploded in price as well. Prompting food riots in the world and the arab spring. It is well documented to those that want to look.

But again, I'm not sure I want a full engagement on this topic because I'm not sure it goes off topic too much.

It is certainly worth a thread (or two) of its own.
I'm starting to believe a Pandora's Box was opened in the ME in 2003, and understanding where food prices are headed in that part of the world might provide some clues about how it will finally shake out. The topic of food prices is certainly germane to a thread on the implosion of the ME, as well.