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Actually, it was "too close to call", with a slight edge given to Remain.Britain had a 73% chance of staying in the EU. just sayin...
I think the people taking bets were getting in the 70s, but not in the polls.
I have come to my own calculation that Hillary's odds are closer to 95% actually.Here's one they will be updating almost daily. Knock yourself out.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Today's forecast:Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.
...with heavy grumblings expected in early November.
It would take a whole lot more rampages and police ambushes though. A lot more.One or two more losers who have watched too many ISIS videos go on a rampage, and one or two more angry blacks shoot down some more cops, and Trump's the winner.
National polls do not matter indeed, but the swing states matter.Once Trump started losing in the polls. Hannity gave the typical republican response to news they dont like. Hannity declared that National Polls dont matter anymore.
Nope.Today's forecast from fivethirty eight is more conservative: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
True but it's trending Trump....even Mondale and Dukakis were ahead at this time in the campaign.
Mondale was never ahead in the polls. He was always ten points or more behind Reagan.
Dukakis peaked in July 1988, and then downhill from there.
Historical polling for U.S. Presidential elections - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I'll feel better when it's 87%.
And BTW I'm not happy about having to vote for her. Feels like punting.
There is one traditionally Democratic state which has swung toward Trump. Another one is leaning Trump.I have come to my own calculation that Hillary's odds are closer to 95% actually.Here's one they will be updating almost daily. Knock yourself out.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Today's forecast:Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.
...with heavy grumblings expected in early November.
She only needs one swing state to win.
The Donald needs to sweep them all.
The last person to sweep them all was BHO against Robber Baron Romney.
So if I were The Donald I would not waste too much more money on this.
You are forgetting the fear and anger for Trump by Hillary fans.I think the pollsters are not weighting the fear and anger of Trump supporters enough.
People with high emotions are more likely to vote. There might be a lot more Hillary supporters, but they feel "meh" about her.
The GOP is really stoking the fear and anger in their rubes. It's their only chance to win.
Every time someone shoots at the cops, they are helping Trump.
If the Bernie supporters don't turn out then that could hurt Hillary, sure.There is one traditionally Democratic state which has swung toward Trump. Another one is leaning Trump.I have come to my own calculation that Hillary's odds are closer to 95% actually.Here's one they will be updating almost daily. Knock yourself out.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Today's forecast:Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.
...with heavy grumblings expected in early November.
She only needs one swing state to win.
The Donald needs to sweep them all.
The last person to sweep them all was BHO against Robber Baron Romney.
So if I were The Donald I would not waste too much more money on this.
The vice versa is true for a couple traditionally Republican states.
The electoral math is definitely on Clinton's side, which is why fivethirtyeight and the NYT are giving such high odds to Clinton.
However, I have been saying for years this election will probably have the lowest voter turnout for a Presidential election since 1924. Low voter turnouts favor the Republicans.
Also, as I just said above, I don't think the pollsters are weighting the fear and anger of Trump's supporters enough.
There is no way I would give Clinton a 95% chance of winning. I think Trump's odds are better than anyone in the polling business realizes.
Hillary is not inspiring. She doesn't get fired up, and her supporters aren't fired up. She's about as exciting and fresh as polyester.You are forgetting the fear and anger for Trump by Hillary fans.I think the pollsters are not weighting the fear and anger of Trump supporters enough.
People with high emotions are more likely to vote. There might be a lot more Hillary supporters, but they feel "meh" about her.
The GOP is really stoking the fear and anger in their rubes. It's their only chance to win.
Every time someone shoots at the cops, they are helping Trump.
I am looking forward to a great upcoming election with very high turnout on both sides.
Then after Hillary wins the rest of the world will love the USA again, same as right after we elected a part-Negro to be POTUS. Now we will have elected a woman for the firs time.
Hillary may even be given the Nobel Peace Prize same as BHO was.
No sarcasm. Pure honesty.
If Forbes and Perot and Nader have proved anything, they have proved that a 3rd Party vote is a wasted vote.Then vote for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. Why keep supporting the same corrupt electoral system when it never changes?
You are allowing yourself to be held hostage.....and bear in mind that currently, Clinton is still reeling from the FBI reprimands....as that story fades a bit, her percentile numbers will increase....that, coupled with the current Trump convention fiasco, will seal the deal......
Like Hazel, I'll vote for Clinton while pinching my nose....but in comparison to a Trump administration there's no viable alternative.
Hillary does not need to be charismatic in this election.Hillary is not inspiring. She doesn't get fired up, and her supporters aren't fired up. She's about as exciting and fresh as polyester.You are forgetting the fear and anger for Trump by Hillary fans.I think the pollsters are not weighting the fear and anger of Trump supporters enough.
People with high emotions are more likely to vote. There might be a lot more Hillary supporters, but they feel "meh" about her.
The GOP is really stoking the fear and anger in their rubes. It's their only chance to win.
Every time someone shoots at the cops, they are helping Trump.
I am looking forward to a great upcoming election with very high turnout on both sides.
Then after Hillary wins the rest of the world will love the USA again, same as right after we elected a part-Negro to be POTUS. Now we will have elected a woman for the firs time.
Hillary may even be given the Nobel Peace Prize same as BHO was.
No sarcasm. Pure honesty.
Clinton's supporters are nowhere near as afraid of Trump as Trump's supporters are afraid of their own shadows. It's simply no contest.
Here's one they will be updating almost daily. Knock yourself out.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Today's forecast:Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.
...with heavy grumblings expected in early November.
I'll feel better when it's 87%.
And BTW I'm not happy about having to vote for her. Feels like punting.
Here's one they will be updating almost daily. Knock yourself out.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Today's forecast:Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.
...with heavy grumblings expected in early November.
I have come to my own calculation that Hillary's odds are closer to 95% actually.Here's one they will be updating almost daily. Knock yourself out.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Today's forecast:Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.
...with heavy grumblings expected in early November.
She only needs one swing state to win.
The Donald needs to sweep them all.
The last person to sweep them all was BHO against Robber Baron Romney.
So if I were The Donald I would not waste too much more money on this.
Under normal circumstances, I think you're right. However, we aren't in normal circumstances. The voters have become more generally aware since Obama. Even some rightwingers have said they've woken up.I think the pollsters are not weighting the fear and anger of Trump supporters enough.
People with high emotions are more likely to vote. There might be a lot more Hillary supporters, but they feel "meh" about her.
The GOP is really stoking the fear and anger in their rubes. It's their only chance to win.
Every time someone shoots at the cops, they are helping Trump.
While I appreciate and respect your idealism, I believe that the only way to stop Trump is to vote for Hillary, and the only way to stop Hillary is to vote for Trump.
