Advanced Calculus: The John Kasich Math & Saving the GOP Brand.

[Syriusly]

Bottom line, I'd take my chance voting for Trump at the risk of getting HC. For what it's worth, my first choice was Carly. The GOP wasted too much capital promoting Jeb and then Rubio. They seem so pathetic.

Agreed on Jeb and Rubio. But your clinging to Trump despite Kasich's fitness and assurance of beating Hillary is...illogical...and so I must conclude you are a democrat hellbent on squashing a Kasich run because you know it would mean a GOP victory.

Have a good day.

Kasich isn't assured to beat Hillary. Remember, if you give the nomination to Kasich, with the fewest votes and delegates.....instead of Trump with the most votes and delegates, you lose millions upon millions of Trump voters. Roughly 13,000,000 or so.

The odds of Republicans winning with that kind of a deficit is the number that comes right after zero.

I agree! The GOP insiders need to lick their wounds and get over it. They are being punished. If the most important thing is beating Hillary, then Give your Mia culpa and try to put a coalition together already.

If they run Trump, they're fucked as well. With 1 in 4 GOP voters indicating they will vote for Hillary instead of Trump, you lose about the same amount of voters. Only Hillary gains them instead.

Worse, Trump has one of the highest unfavorability ratings of any candidate, ever. Currently at around 65%. With 54% indicating they will never vote Trump.

The GOP is fucked either way. The only question is if they want to take the hit early or later. I predict they'll take it erarlier. As they can repudiate Trump and his positions and try and control their own brand. It will split the party, but that's happening anyway. The only question is if that occurs before or after Trump stains the GOP brand for the next decade.

Not sure who is staining, or has stained the brand more, Trump or the insiders. There's plenty of stain to go around though.

Trumps negatives are a problem, but Hillary carries pretty high negatives too. Guess what, there is plenty of negative to go around too.

I won't even try to predict what happens in the fall. It's like predicting the winner of the super bowl in September. I thought Trump would be back firing B rated celebrities by now. With All the rumblings from the FBI, Hillary could still take a serious body shot.

My dream is to see Hilary walking out of a federal building in handcuffs while Bill covers her head with his coat before they drive off in a black FBI sedan. Gives me chills to think about.

Your 'dream' is about the only possibility of a GOP victory right now.

I don't see how the GOP can survive this convention intact without something like that happening before the convention to unite the GOP.

Of course Trump would be upset- because
a) He and Hilary are good friends and
b) He hates it when anyone else gets some of the camera time.

 

[Skylar]

With All the rumblings from the FBI, Hillary could still take a serious body shot.

Its definitely an issue. The FBI is directing quite a few resources at the issue to get it resolved before the convention. Most legal experts don't think there will be an indictment. But while it hangs over Hillary it hurts her. If an FBI investigation results in no charges, Hillary can spin it and move on.

If there an indictment, Super Delegates abandon her and nominate someone else. Biden perhaps. Maybe Sanders. Though I think the former is more likely than the latter.

 

[Flopper]

Neither Trump nor Cruz is going to accept Kasich parachuting in to the Nomination at the last minute when he has only won one primary [ in his home state]...It is going to be a a death match Convention ...

You make a lot of sense. One could argue at this point, anybody besides Trump or Cruz as the nominee would do severe damage to the party. Trumpsters are going to be irate if their guy goes in with the most delegates and they hand the nomination to anybody else. The Cruz faithful will keep echoing only he can defeat Hillary. It's a potential train wreck and I want a seat next to the track.

Once the convention starts it really doesn't matter what the candidates will accept. The only thing that matters is delegate vote.

Delegates from the states have an obligation to vote in accordance with delegate votes awarded in the primaries.. However, Trump's off again on again pledge to support the winning candidate may well inspire Trump pledged delegates to treat their pledge as Trump does his. Normally the number delegates a candidate is awarded in the primary will be the number of delegate votes he get's on the first ballot. However, this is not a normal election primary and it may not be a normal convention.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

Agreed on Jeb and Rubio. But your clinging to Trump despite Kasich's fitness and assurance of beating Hillary is...illogical...and so I must conclude you are a democrat hellbent on squashing a Kasich run because you know it would mean a GOP victory.

Have a good day.

Kasich isn't assured to beat Hillary. Remember, if you give the nomination to Kasich, with the fewest votes and delegates.....instead of Trump with the most votes and delegates, you lose millions upon millions of Trump voters. Roughly 13,000,000 or so.

The odds of Republicans winning with that kind of a deficit is the number that comes right after zero.

I agree! The GOP insiders need to lick their wounds and get over it. They are being punished. If the most important thing is beating Hillary, then Give your Mia culpa and try to put a coalition together already.

If they run Trump, they're fucked as well. With 1 in 4 GOP voters indicating they will vote for Hillary instead of Trump, you lose about the same amount of voters. Only Hillary gains them instead.

Worse, Trump has one of the highest unfavorability ratings of any candidate, ever. Currently at around 65%. With 54% indicating they will never vote Trump.

The GOP is fucked either way. The only question is if they want to take the hit early or later. I predict they'll take it erarlier. As they can repudiate Trump and his positions and try and control their own brand. It will split the party, but that's happening anyway. The only question is if that occurs before or after Trump stains the GOP brand for the next decade.

Not sure who is staining, or has stained the brand more, Trump or the insiders. There's plenty of stain to go around though.

With the general electorate and independents? Trump.

Whether you agree or don't, the GOP establishment will feel it to be so. And they'll want to define their own message, platform and brand. If they have a brokered convention, the party splits and at a very emotional point. So its going to hurt more in the short term. They lose the general election and probably the senate.

But they get to control their own message.

If they nominate Trump, they're stuck with every stupid thing Trump has ever said. From Birtherism to nuking Europe because its a 'big place', to Muslims being barred from the US to the "Mexicans are Rapists', to Trump's creepy fixation on Megan Kelly.......the republicans undo pretty much all of their outreach for the last decade. And it will take about that long again to get back to where they were before Trump came along.

The advantage of that approach is that while losing control of their own message, they can keep the party together for a little while longer. And might be able to split it on more amicable, less emotional circumstances.

My prediction (and you're right on the futility of such this far out....consider it my best guess at this point),......the GOP goes with a brokered convention and nominates Ryan.

Trumps negatives are a problem, but Hillary carries pretty high negatives too. Guess what, there is plenty of negative to go around too.

Oh, Hillary is the weakest candidate that the Democrats have run in my lifetime. And yet Trump is worse still. That's quite an accomplishment. About 7% of Democrats would defect to Trump to flee Hillary. About 25% of republicans would defect to Hillary to flee Trump.

I must be older than you, the name Dukakis ring a bell?

In my view the polls are not that reliable, so I don't pay a lot of attention to them, and they are certainly fluid.

They could go Ryan. I like him a lot. Hard to predict if they could sway the Trumpsters back though, and if Donald goes rogue third party.....ooh. That is a liberal media feeding frenzy. It's a risky move, but they are short on safe choices.

Would Paul Ryan even accept the nod? He may see the mess and decide he doesn't want to step in. 4 years of speaker could allow him to pull the party together for a run in 2020. Why take the shot now? I could see a president trump saying 4 years is enough, way too many rules for his taste.

It is a facinating time to be sure,

 

[BuckToothMoron]

With All the rumblings from the FBI, Hillary could still take a serious body shot.

Its definitely an issue. The FBI is directing quite a few resources at the issue to get it resolved before the convention. Most legal experts don't think there will be an indictment. But while it hangs over Hillary it hurts her. If an FBI investigation results in no charges, Hillary can spin it and move on.

If there an indictment, Super Delegates abandon her and nominate someone else. Biden perhaps. Maybe Sanders. Though I think the former is more likely than the latter.

An indictment of Hillary would set the democrats in a similar boat to the Republicans- no canidate with enough delegates to claim the nomination, and primary voters potentially disenfranchised if they pick a guy from the audience. This is not going to be dull!

 

[Skylar]

Kasich isn't assured to beat Hillary. Remember, if you give the nomination to Kasich, with the fewest votes and delegates.....instead of Trump with the most votes and delegates, you lose millions upon millions of Trump voters. Roughly 13,000,000 or so.

The odds of Republicans winning with that kind of a deficit is the number that comes right after zero.

I agree! The GOP insiders need to lick their wounds and get over it. They are being punished. If the most important thing is beating Hillary, then Give your Mia culpa and try to put a coalition together already.

If they run Trump, they're fucked as well. With 1 in 4 GOP voters indicating they will vote for Hillary instead of Trump, you lose about the same amount of voters. Only Hillary gains them instead.

Worse, Trump has one of the highest unfavorability ratings of any candidate, ever. Currently at around 65%. With 54% indicating they will never vote Trump.

The GOP is fucked either way. The only question is if they want to take the hit early or later. I predict they'll take it erarlier. As they can repudiate Trump and his positions and try and control their own brand. It will split the party, but that's happening anyway. The only question is if that occurs before or after Trump stains the GOP brand for the next decade.

Not sure who is staining, or has stained the brand more, Trump or the insiders. There's plenty of stain to go around though.

With the general electorate and independents? Trump.

Whether you agree or don't, the GOP establishment will feel it to be so. And they'll want to define their own message, platform and brand. If they have a brokered convention, the party splits and at a very emotional point. So its going to hurt more in the short term. They lose the general election and probably the senate.

But they get to control their own message.

If they nominate Trump, they're stuck with every stupid thing Trump has ever said. From Birtherism to nuking Europe because its a 'big place', to Muslims being barred from the US to the "Mexicans are Rapists', to Trump's creepy fixation on Megan Kelly.......the republicans undo pretty much all of their outreach for the last decade. And it will take about that long again to get back to where they were before Trump came along.

The advantage of that approach is that while losing control of their own message, they can keep the party together for a little while longer. And might be able to split it on more amicable, less emotional circumstances.

My prediction (and you're right on the futility of such this far out....consider it my best guess at this point),......the GOP goes with a brokered convention and nominates Ryan.

Trumps negatives are a problem, but Hillary carries pretty high negatives too. Guess what, there is plenty of negative to go around too.

Oh, Hillary is the weakest candidate that the Democrats have run in my lifetime. And yet Trump is worse still. That's quite an accomplishment. About 7% of Democrats would defect to Trump to flee Hillary. About 25% of republicans would defect to Hillary to flee Trump.

I must be older than you, the name Dukakis ring a bell?

Did Dukakis have an indictment hanging over his head. Or roughly 50% disapproval ratings with the general electorate?

They could go Ryan. I like him a lot. Hard to predict if they could sway the Trumpsters back though, and if Donald goes rogue third party.....ooh. That is a liberal media feeding frenzy. It's a risky move, but they are short on safe choices.

Ryan? He's the face of the 'establishment'. The only question among Trumpsters would be to find the exact 'fattest part of their ass'' for Ryan to kiss.

Ryan would be for the general electorate. Not to win. But to provide a much better last impression of the GOP before they lose the general election. He's articulate, careful, reasonably good looking, and civil. And compared to Trump, Ryan looks downright moderate.

That's the image the GOP would want to leave the electorate with at the end of this farce. Not Trump going on national television to talk about his dick.

Would Paul Ryan even accept the nod? He may see the mess and decide he doesn't want to step in. 4 years of speaker could allow him to pull the party together for a run in 2020. Why take the shot now? I could see a president trump saying 4 years is enough, way too many rules for his taste.

Ryan would if the Party asked him to. Just like he accepted the Speakership. Ryan is a numbers wonk. Ways and Means committee reports are like catnip for this guy. Ryan was *exactly* where he wanted to be heading that committee. If he'd give up his baby for the Speakership, he'd give up the Speakership for the nomination.

If the party asked him. The Speakership is not a job he wanted to begin with.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

Neither Trump nor Cruz is going to accept Kasich parachuting in to the Nomination at the last minute when he has only won one primary [ in his home state]...It is going to be a a death match Convention ...

You make a lot of sense. One could argue at this point, anybody besides Trump or Cruz as the nominee would do severe damage to the party. Trumpsters are going to be irate if their guy goes in with the most delegates and they hand the nomination to anybody else. The Cruz faithful will keep echoing only he can defeat Hillary. It's a potential train wreck and I want a seat next to the track.

Once the convention starts it really doesn't matter what the candidates will accept. The only thing that matters is delegate vote.

Delegates from the states have an obligation to vote in accordance with delegate votes awarded in the primaries.. However, Trump's off again on again pledge to support the winning candidate may well inspire Trump pledged delegates to treat their pledge as Trump does his. Normally the number delegates a candidate is awarded in the primary will be the number of delegate votes he get's on the first ballot. However, this is not a normal election primary and it may not be a normal convention.

It may not matter what the canidates accept when it comes to the nomination, but you don't want a nationally televised convention where Donald Trump tells his followers to walk out.

 

[Skylar]

With All the rumblings from the FBI, Hillary could still take a serious body shot.

Its definitely an issue. The FBI is directing quite a few resources at the issue to get it resolved before the convention. Most legal experts don't think there will be an indictment. But while it hangs over Hillary it hurts her. If an FBI investigation results in no charges, Hillary can spin it and move on.

If there an indictment, Super Delegates abandon her and nominate someone else. Biden perhaps. Maybe Sanders. Though I think the former is more likely than the latter.

An indictment of Hillary would set the democrats in a similar boat to the Republicans- no canidate with enough delegates to claim the nomination, and primary voters potentially disenfranchised if they pick a guy from the audience. This is not going to be dull!

Yeah, but it also provides a solid, objective reason. A stark and dramatic change of circumstances from the primary. She'd clearly be tainted. You'd be able to bring in plenty of democrats with that rationale.

Trump is exactly who he was. Nothing has changed. To snub him is to reject exactly what the voters who supported him voted for. They wouldn't take it.

The DNC would be able to manage it due to the dramatically different circumstances. The GOP wouldn't....as nothing has changed.

 

[Flopper]

Kasich isn't assured to beat Hillary. Remember, if you give the nomination to Kasich, with the fewest votes and delegates.....instead of Trump with the most votes and delegates, you lose millions upon millions of Trump voters. Roughly 13,000,000 or so.

The odds of Republicans winning with that kind of a deficit is the number that comes right after zero.

I agree! The GOP insiders need to lick their wounds and get over it. They are being punished. If the most important thing is beating Hillary, then Give your Mia culpa and try to put a coalition together already.

If they run Trump, they're fucked as well. With 1 in 4 GOP voters indicating they will vote for Hillary instead of Trump, you lose about the same amount of voters. Only Hillary gains them instead.

Worse, Trump has one of the highest unfavorability ratings of any candidate, ever. Currently at around 65%. With 54% indicating they will never vote Trump.

The GOP is fucked either way. The only question is if they want to take the hit early or later. I predict they'll take it erarlier. As they can repudiate Trump and his positions and try and control their own brand. It will split the party, but that's happening anyway. The only question is if that occurs before or after Trump stains the GOP brand for the next decade.

Not sure who is staining, or has stained the brand more, Trump or the insiders. There's plenty of stain to go around though.

With the general electorate and independents? Trump.

Whether you agree or don't, the GOP establishment will feel it to be so. And they'll want to define their own message, platform and brand. If they have a brokered convention, the party splits and at a very emotional point. So its going to hurt more in the short term. They lose the general election and probably the senate.

But they get to control their own message.

If they nominate Trump, they're stuck with every stupid thing Trump has ever said. From Birtherism to nuking Europe because its a 'big place', to Muslims being barred from the US to the "Mexicans are Rapists', to Trump's creepy fixation on Megan Kelly.......the republicans undo pretty much all of their outreach for the last decade. And it will take about that long again to get back to where they were before Trump came along.

The advantage of that approach is that while losing control of their own message, they can keep the party together for a little while longer. And might be able to split it on more amicable, less emotional circumstances.

My prediction (and you're right on the futility of such this far out....consider it my best guess at this point),......the GOP goes with a brokered convention and nominates Ryan.

Trumps negatives are a problem, but Hillary carries pretty high negatives too. Guess what, there is plenty of negative to go around too.

Oh, Hillary is the weakest candidate that the Democrats have run in my lifetime. And yet Trump is worse still. That's quite an accomplishment. About 7% of Democrats would defect to Trump to flee Hillary. About 25% of republicans would defect to Hillary to flee Trump.

I must be older than you, the name Dukakis ring a bell?

In my view the polls are not that reliable, so I don't pay a lot of attention to them, and they are certainly fluid.

They could go Ryan. I like him a lot. Hard to predict if they could sway the Trumpsters back though, and if Donald goes rogue third party.....ooh. That is a liberal media feeding frenzy. It's a risky move, but they are short on safe choices.

Would Paul Ryan even accept the nod? He may see the mess and decide he doesn't want to step in. 4 years of speaker could allow him to pull the party together for a run in 2020. Why take the shot now? I could see a president trump saying 4 years is enough, way too many rules for his taste.

It is a fascinating time to be sure,

If no candidate had a majority of votes after the 1st ballot and Ryan appeared to have strong support, I think he would accept.

 

[Flopper]

Neither Trump nor Cruz is going to accept Kasich parachuting in to the Nomination at the last minute when he has only won one primary [ in his home state]...It is going to be a a death match Convention ...

You make a lot of sense. One could argue at this point, anybody besides Trump or Cruz as the nominee would do severe damage to the party. Trumpsters are going to be irate if their guy goes in with the most delegates and they hand the nomination to anybody else. The Cruz faithful will keep echoing only he can defeat Hillary. It's a potential train wreck and I want a seat next to the track.

Once the convention starts it really doesn't matter what the candidates will accept. The only thing that matters is delegate vote.

Delegates from the states have an obligation to vote in accordance with delegate votes awarded in the primaries.. However, Trump's off again on again pledge to support the winning candidate may well inspire Trump pledged delegates to treat their pledge as Trump does his. Normally the number delegates a candidate is awarded in the primary will be the number of delegate votes he get's on the first ballot. However, this is not a normal election primary and it may not be a normal convention.

It may not matter what the canidates accept when it comes to the nomination, but you don't want a nationally televised convention where Donald Trump tells his followers to walk out.

There are two ways the party can lose the general election. They can lose the presidency or lose both the presidency and congress. The GOP fears the later with Trump heading the ticket. They may not be willing to gamble on losing the whole shooting match. Considering how unpopular Trump is with general election voters, they may be just willing to consed the presidency to maintain control in congress.

.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

I agree! The GOP insiders need to lick their wounds and get over it. They are being punished. If the most important thing is beating Hillary, then Give your Mia culpa and try to put a coalition together already.

If they run Trump, they're fucked as well. With 1 in 4 GOP voters indicating they will vote for Hillary instead of Trump, you lose about the same amount of voters. Only Hillary gains them instead.

Worse, Trump has one of the highest unfavorability ratings of any candidate, ever. Currently at around 65%. With 54% indicating they will never vote Trump.

The GOP is fucked either way. The only question is if they want to take the hit early or later. I predict they'll take it erarlier. As they can repudiate Trump and his positions and try and control their own brand. It will split the party, but that's happening anyway. The only question is if that occurs before or after Trump stains the GOP brand for the next decade.

Not sure who is staining, or has stained the brand more, Trump or the insiders. There's plenty of stain to go around though.

With the general electorate and independents? Trump.

Whether you agree or don't, the GOP establishment will feel it to be so. And they'll want to define their own message, platform and brand. If they have a brokered convention, the party splits and at a very emotional point. So its going to hurt more in the short term. They lose the general election and probably the senate.

But they get to control their own message.

If they nominate Trump, they're stuck with every stupid thing Trump has ever said. From Birtherism to nuking Europe because its a 'big place', to Muslims being barred from the US to the "Mexicans are Rapists', to Trump's creepy fixation on Megan Kelly.......the republicans undo pretty much all of their outreach for the last decade. And it will take about that long again to get back to where they were before Trump came along.

The advantage of that approach is that while losing control of their own message, they can keep the party together for a little while longer. And might be able to split it on more amicable, less emotional circumstances.

My prediction (and you're right on the futility of such this far out....consider it my best guess at this point),......the GOP goes with a brokered convention and nominates Ryan.

Trumps negatives are a problem, but Hillary carries pretty high negatives too. Guess what, there is plenty of negative to go around too.

Oh, Hillary is the weakest candidate that the Democrats have run in my lifetime. And yet Trump is worse still. That's quite an accomplishment. About 7% of Democrats would defect to Trump to flee Hillary. About 25% of republicans would defect to Hillary to flee Trump.

I must be older than you, the name Dukakis ring a bell?

Did Dukakis have an indictment hanging over his head. Or roughly 50% disapproval ratings with the general electorate?

They could go Ryan. I like him a lot. Hard to predict if they could sway the Trumpsters back though, and if Donald goes rogue third party.....ooh. That is a liberal media feeding frenzy. It's a risky move, but they are short on safe choices.

Ryan? He's the face of the 'establishment'. The only question among Trumpsters would be to find the exact 'fattest part of their ass'' for Ryan to kiss.

Ryan would be for the general electorate. Not to win. But to provide a much better last impression of the GOP before they lose the general election. He's articulate, careful, reasonably good looking, and civil. And compared to Trump, Ryan looks downright moderate.

That's the image the GOP would want to leave the electorate with at the end of this farce. Not Trump going on national television to talk about his dick.

Would Paul Ryan even accept the nod? He may see the mess and decide he doesn't want to step in. 4 years of speaker could allow him to pull the party together for a run in 2020. Why take the shot now? I could see a president trump saying 4 years is enough, way too many rules for his taste.

Ryan would if the Party asked him to. Just like he accepted the Speakership. Ryan is a numbers wonk. Ways and Means committee reports are like catnip for this guy. Ryan was *exactly* where he wanted to be heading that committee. If he'd give up his baby for the Speakership, he'd give up the Speakership for the nomination.

If the party asked him. The Speakership is not a job he wanted to begin with.

Neither Trump nor Cruz is going to accept Kasich parachuting in to the Nomination at the last minute when he has only won one primary [ in his home state]...It is going to be a a death match Convention ...

You make a lot of sense. One could argue at this point, anybody besides Trump or Cruz as the nominee would do severe damage to the party. Trumpsters are going to be irate if their guy goes in with the most delegates and they hand the nomination to anybody else. The Cruz faithful will keep echoing only he can defeat Hillary. It's a potential train wreck and I want a seat next to the track.

Once the convention starts it really doesn't matter what the candidates will accept. The only thing that matters is delegate vote.

Delegates from the states have an obligation to vote in accordance with delegate votes awarded in the primaries.. However, Trump's off again on again pledge to support the winning candidate may well inspire Trump pledged delegates to treat their pledge as Trump does his. Normally the number delegates a candidate is awarded in the primary will be the number of delegate votes he get's on the first ballot. However, this is not a normal election primary and it may not be a normal convention.

It may not matter what the canidates accept when it comes to the nomination, but you don't want a nationally televised convention where Donald Trump tells his followers to walk out.

There are two ways the party can lose the general election. They can lose the presidency or lose both the presidency and congress. The GOP fears the later with Trump heading the ticket. They may not be willing to gamble on losing the whole shooting match. Considering how unpopular Trump is with general election voters, they may be just willing to consed the presidency to maintain control in congress.

.

I'm I no political wonk so I try not to get to precise with predictions. , but I love all the possible outcomes expressed here. We won't know the answer until sometime after that Tuesday in November, but I'll bet we have not heard the right scenario yet. Love the discussion.

Frankly, I think the contributors to this thread would do a better job of running the GOP than the inflated bozos doing it now.

I agree, a Ryan win as the nominee is hard to imagine, but I can't make a good case for anybody other than Trump if he wins the delegate race, even without the requisite 1237.

No, Dukakis didn't have an indictment hanging over his head, but he still managed to lose the electoral vote almost 4 to 1. I think he won about ten states, and some called the race by 4 PM. IT WAS A MASSACRE. if Hillary is at the top of the ticket who doesn't think she'll get at least 200 electoral votes.

Concur, Ryan is the GOP golden boy, and I don't think he likes the idea of smooching the ass of Trumpsters. The reason he is a good leader is because he recognizes a good play from a bad or too risky play. He understands political capital, and he knows a bad hand from a good one. I like him way to much to see him step into this pig sty the GOP has created. My opinion, he'd be wise to say no thanks. Getting on board with the GOP now as the nominee is like Buying a ticket on a boat named _itanic. The first letter may not be a T, but the odds are really high.

You are right, he didn't want the speakership, He got his ass kissed by the GOP and took it. Just don't see the guy now turning his lips towards the Trumpster asses.

 

[Flopper]

If they run Trump, they're fucked as well. With 1 in 4 GOP voters indicating they will vote for Hillary instead of Trump, you lose about the same amount of voters. Only Hillary gains them instead.

Worse, Trump has one of the highest unfavorability ratings of any candidate, ever. Currently at around 65%. With 54% indicating they will never vote Trump.

The GOP is fucked either way. The only question is if they want to take the hit early or later. I predict they'll take it erarlier. As they can repudiate Trump and his positions and try and control their own brand. It will split the party, but that's happening anyway. The only question is if that occurs before or after Trump stains the GOP brand for the next decade.

Not sure who is staining, or has stained the brand more, Trump or the insiders. There's plenty of stain to go around though.

With the general electorate and independents? Trump.

Whether you agree or don't, the GOP establishment will feel it to be so. And they'll want to define their own message, platform and brand. If they have a brokered convention, the party splits and at a very emotional point. So its going to hurt more in the short term. They lose the general election and probably the senate.

But they get to control their own message.

If they nominate Trump, they're stuck with every stupid thing Trump has ever said. From Birtherism to nuking Europe because its a 'big place', to Muslims being barred from the US to the "Mexicans are Rapists', to Trump's creepy fixation on Megan Kelly.......the republicans undo pretty much all of their outreach for the last decade. And it will take about that long again to get back to where they were before Trump came along.

The advantage of that approach is that while losing control of their own message, they can keep the party together for a little while longer. And might be able to split it on more amicable, less emotional circumstances.

My prediction (and you're right on the futility of such this far out....consider it my best guess at this point),......the GOP goes with a brokered convention and nominates Ryan.

Trumps negatives are a problem, but Hillary carries pretty high negatives too. Guess what, there is plenty of negative to go around too.

Oh, Hillary is the weakest candidate that the Democrats have run in my lifetime. And yet Trump is worse still. That's quite an accomplishment. About 7% of Democrats would defect to Trump to flee Hillary. About 25% of republicans would defect to Hillary to flee Trump.

I must be older than you, the name Dukakis ring a bell?

Did Dukakis have an indictment hanging over his head. Or roughly 50% disapproval ratings with the general electorate?

They could go Ryan. I like him a lot. Hard to predict if they could sway the Trumpsters back though, and if Donald goes rogue third party.....ooh. That is a liberal media feeding frenzy. It's a risky move, but they are short on safe choices.

Ryan? He's the face of the 'establishment'. The only question among Trumpsters would be to find the exact 'fattest part of their ass'' for Ryan to kiss.

Ryan would be for the general electorate. Not to win. But to provide a much better last impression of the GOP before they lose the general election. He's articulate, careful, reasonably good looking, and civil. And compared to Trump, Ryan looks downright moderate.

That's the image the GOP would want to leave the electorate with at the end of this farce. Not Trump going on national television to talk about his dick.

Would Paul Ryan even accept the nod? He may see the mess and decide he doesn't want to step in. 4 years of speaker could allow him to pull the party together for a run in 2020. Why take the shot now? I could see a president trump saying 4 years is enough, way too many rules for his taste.

Ryan would if the Party asked him to. Just like he accepted the Speakership. Ryan is a numbers wonk. Ways and Means committee reports are like catnip for this guy. Ryan was *exactly* where he wanted to be heading that committee. If he'd give up his baby for the Speakership, he'd give up the Speakership for the nomination.

If the party asked him. The Speakership is not a job he wanted to begin with.

Neither Trump nor Cruz is going to accept Kasich parachuting in to the Nomination at the last minute when he has only won one primary [ in his home state]...It is going to be a a death match Convention ...

You make a lot of sense. One could argue at this point, anybody besides Trump or Cruz as the nominee would do severe damage to the party. Trumpsters are going to be irate if their guy goes in with the most delegates and they hand the nomination to anybody else. The Cruz faithful will keep echoing only he can defeat Hillary. It's a potential train wreck and I want a seat next to the track.

Once the convention starts it really doesn't matter what the candidates will accept. The only thing that matters is delegate vote.

Delegates from the states have an obligation to vote in accordance with delegate votes awarded in the primaries.. However, Trump's off again on again pledge to support the winning candidate may well inspire Trump pledged delegates to treat their pledge as Trump does his. Normally the number delegates a candidate is awarded in the primary will be the number of delegate votes he get's on the first ballot. However, this is not a normal election primary and it may not be a normal convention.

It may not matter what the canidates accept when it comes to the nomination, but you don't want a nationally televised convention where Donald Trump tells his followers to walk out.

There are two ways the party can lose the general election. They can lose the presidency or lose both the presidency and congress. The GOP fears the later with Trump heading the ticket. They may not be willing to gamble on losing the whole shooting match. Considering how unpopular Trump is with general election voters, they may be just willing to consed the presidency to maintain control in congress.

.

I'm I no political wonk so I try not to get to precise with predictions. , but I love all the possible outcomes expressed here. We won't know the answer until sometime after that Tuesday in November, but I'll bet we have not heard the right scenario yet. Love the discussion.

Frankly, I think the contributors to this thread would do a better job of running the GOP than the inflated bozos doing it now.

I agree, a Ryan win as the nominee is hard to imagine, but I can't make a good case for anybody other than Trump if he wins the delegate race, even without the requisite 1237.

No, Dukakis didn't have an indictment hanging over his head, but he still managed to lose the electoral vote almost 4 to 1. I think he won about ten states, and some called the race by 4 PM. IT WAS A MASSACRE. if Hillary is at the top of the ticket who doesn't think she'll get at least 200 electoral votes.

Concur, Ryan is the GOP golden boy, and I don't think he likes the idea of smooching the ass of Trumpsters. The reason he is a good leader is because he recognizes a good play from a bad or too risky play. He understands political capital, and he knows a bad hand from a good one. I like him way to much to see him step into this pig sty the GOP has created. My opinion, he'd be wise to say no thanks. Getting on board with the GOP now as the nominee is like Buying a ticket on a boat named _itanic. The first letter may not be a T, but the odds are really high.

You are right, he didn't want the speakership, He got his ass kissed by the GOP and took it. Just don't see the guy now turning his lips towards the Trumpster asses.

Most people know nothing about Ryan. Nominating someone that has not gone through the primaries is a real long shot. Even a well known respected party member would be unlikely. The nominee is probably going to be Trump or Cruz, possibly Kasich.. However, anything is possible.

 

[Rustic]

The solution to the perfect storm of democrats winning this Fall by GOP foolishness is to seed the clouds early and control the time of the rains. The GOP could rightly declare "the last man standing" after serious violations of requirements of candidates have been done by Tiny Hands and his current nemesis "The Waxen Puppet". There have to be rules of conduct of which if a candidate sinks below, the party has a right and a duty to save its brand by disqualifying said candidate(s). Who would be left standing of course is the sober, experienced and qualified candidate John Kasich.

The GOP needs to stop saying "Kasich just can't win, the math isn't on his side" and start talking about Ted Cruz's Canadian birth certificate and how those who used to support Cruz (with their "anyone but Trump vote) should now go to Kasich. THEN there would be enough abandoned delegates and amassed delegates for the RNC to force a vote at the convention for the best man to beat Hillary in the Fall.

And the polls show clearly and consistently that this man is John Kasich. Anything less would tarnish the GOP brand so harshly that it would cease to exist. John Kasich would re-establish and strengthen the brand in everyone's eyes and re-adjust the political equilibrium so vital between the two sides of the aisle.

Of course John Kasich is NOT the Cheney/Rove pick. Because anyone with eyes can see he'd tell them to fuck off if their nefarious plans might hurt the US as a whole. So this, and no other thing, is the cause of "the obvious angst in the GOP". There really is no angst. 99.999999999% of the establishment know that Kasich would save the party and win this Fall. it's just that .000000001% named "Dick Cheney and homies" that there seems to be this big uproar on the right.

But how much more will the entire republican party sacrafice for this evil .000000001% of their ranks? (Assuming a 5-time draft-dodger, gay marriage promoter, raised by democrats, Obama-praiser can be considered "GOP establishment"..). Want to talk about hurting the brand and where all the Trumpsters came from? There you go.. If the GOP could scrape off that one, huge festering barnacle off its collective butt, they'd find that all their dreams would come true..

John Kasich should be punched in the gut every time he speaks....

 

[Flopper]

The solution to the perfect storm of democrats winning this Fall by GOP foolishness is to seed the clouds early and control the time of the rains. The GOP could rightly declare "the last man standing" after serious violations of requirements of candidates have been done by Tiny Hands and his current nemesis "The Waxen Puppet". There have to be rules of conduct of which if a candidate sinks below, the party has a right and a duty to save its brand by disqualifying said candidate(s). Who would be left standing of course is the sober, experienced and qualified candidate John Kasich.

The GOP needs to stop saying "Kasich just can't win, the math isn't on his side" and start talking about Ted Cruz's Canadian birth certificate and how those who used to support Cruz (with their "anyone but Trump vote) should now go to Kasich. THEN there would be enough abandoned delegates and amassed delegates for the RNC to force a vote at the convention for the best man to beat Hillary in the Fall.

And the polls show clearly and consistently that this man is John Kasich. Anything less would tarnish the GOP brand so harshly that it would cease to exist. John Kasich would re-establish and strengthen the brand in everyone's eyes and re-adjust the political equilibrium so vital between the two sides of the aisle.

Of course John Kasich is NOT the Cheney/Rove pick. Because anyone with eyes can see he'd tell them to fuck off if their nefarious plans might hurt the US as a whole. So this, and no other thing, is the cause of "the obvious angst in the GOP". There really is no angst. 99.999999999% of the establishment know that Kasich would save the party and win this Fall. it's just that .000000001% named "Dick Cheney and homies" that there seems to be this big uproar on the right.

But how much more will the entire republican party sacrafice for this evil .000000001% of their ranks? (Assuming a 5-time draft-dodger, gay marriage promoter, raised by democrats, Obama-praiser can be considered "GOP establishment"..). Want to talk about hurting the brand and where all the Trumpsters came from? There you go.. If the GOP could scrape off that one, huge festering barnacle off its collective butt, they'd find that all their dreams would come true..

John Kasich should be punched in the gut every time he speaks....

If he's speaking to Trump, that might well be the case because he insist on discussing real issues and unlike Trump he can put together more than two sentences without launching a personal attack or making vulgar demeaning comments. If you noticed during most of the debates, he refused to play that game.

 

[Silhouette]

The chair of the RNC yesterday on Hannity said that 1. The nomination will go to one of the three men running right now and 2. That the two front runners for various reasons by no means have the seal on that nomination.

Hannity pressed Preibus to tell him on the spot that the math disqualifies Kasich. Preibus would do no such thing. Hannity threatened in so many words that if Kasich sealed the bid "many people would be angry and upset". But what Hannity failed to also note is that if Cruz sealed the bid many people would be upset or if Tiny Hands sealed the bid, many people would be upset.

So, If Tiny Hands seals the bid, 2/3 of conservative voters would be upset...very much so.. If Cruz seals the bid then 1/3 of conservative voters would be upset....very much so. If Kasich seals the bid, because a lot of people waffle between him and Cruz, lukewarm usually either way, then 1/3 of the conservatives would be truly upset.

So since "being upset" for a significant bloc of voters is a guarantee no matter what and only 1/3 of conservatives vs 2/3 of conservatives being upset is better...and the Canadian birth certificate thing.., the RNC has instead looked at who will win against Hillary. So...go ahead and cast your votes for a candidate who will lose to (or is ineligible to run against) Hillary in the Fall. Or prove you're smarter than a chimp and cast your vote for a winner. That's some advanced math!

 

[SwimExpert]

The notion that Republicans would refuse to vote for Kasich in November is absurd. On the other hand, there are definitely Republicans who would be hesitant to vote for Cruz, while the majority of Republicans outright refuse to vote for Trump. That, on top of the overwhelming majority of independents who would refuse to vote for either Cruz or Trump.

 

[sealybobo]

The only reason you like Kasich is you believe he'll will end up being more anti-gay than Trump. I find that hysterical since both of their views concerning queers are hauntingly familiar.

That being said, I would vote Kasich in a heartbeat if he got the nod but he isn't going to get the nod.

He has less delegates than rubio. That's how fucked up the GOP is. They are divided in 3 just like iraq

 

[Silhouette]

He has less delegates than rubio. That's how fucked up the GOP is. They are divided in 3 just like iraq

It's OK...I know you don't want the one GOP candidate who consistently beats Hillary in the Fall by over 10 points to get the GOP nomination over the other two who consistently poll losing to Hillary by between 5-10 points...

All that hard-left Agenda work down the toilet in one darned election..what circuit judges will snap to that agenda when the other side has the reins?

 

[sealybobo]

He has less delegates than rubio. That's how fucked up the GOP is. They are divided in 3 just like iraq

It's OK...I know you don't want the one GOP candidate who consistently beats Hillary in the Fall by over 10 points to get the GOP nomination..

Of course not. I don't see much difference between Cruz and rubio or bush or kasich.

What Paul Ryan/Mitch McConnell bill would kasich veto? None, same as the rest.

I want Cruz!

 

[Silhouette]

Of course not. I don't see much difference between Cruz and rubio or bush or kasich.

What Paul Ryan/Mitch McConnell bill would kasich veto? None, same as the rest.

I want Cruz!

Then move to Canada where perhaps he can run for Prime Minister. Cuz he can't run for President here..