browsing deer
Silver Member
- Jul 11, 2015
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this is interesting...Trump can't compete in third party in many states
In a recent CNN Town Hall, Donald Trump told Anderson Cooper that he is backing away from his pledge to support the eventual Republican Nominee, whoever that might be. Which implies that Trump may be open to running for president as an Independent.
So Conservative Review wanted to find out if it was even plausible for Trump to not only run, but also win as an Independent. We contacted the elections officers of all fifty states to find out not only their filing deadlines, ballot access, but also if there were any “sore-loser laws” on the books.
“Sore-loser laws” basically bar a candidate who has run in a partisan primary from appearing on a general election ballot as an independent or non-partisan candidate.
Based on the responses so far, Trump can run in the majority of states as an independent. However, he is barred from running as a third-party candidate in some states; those states and their electoral votes add up to over 35 percent of all electoral votes.
Fifteen states confirmed to Conservative Review that they have sore-loser laws which apply to presidential candidates: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia. Some of these states include Trump’s strongest area of support, like Alabama, West Virginia, Georgia, and Arizona.
But, can’t Trump just challenge these laws in court? Of course, but consider that former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson ran afoul of Michigan’s sore-loser law in 2012 and the Supreme Court refused to take up his case. Johnson missed the deadline to withdraw from the Michigan Republican primary by three hours and therefore was unable to then run as a Libertarian in the general election in Michigan. Trump, having appeared on the primary ballot, finds himself in a similar predicament.
Taking into account these thirteen states, Trump would be ineligible to compete for 202 electoral votes, over 35 percent, a significant burden for Trump to secure the presidency through an independent run. With 538 electoral votes up for grabs, Trump would have to hit the magic number of 270 from the smaller available pool of 336 electoral votes.
More Electoral Votes Off the Table
But the math gets even worse, in some states Trump has missed the deadline to mount an independent bid. Take for example New Mexico where, Kerry Fresquez, the Elections Director of the state, told Conservative Review that the deadline to qualify for the November ballot as an independent has already passed. Fresquez further stated that Donald Trump has not applied for ballot access, meaning he can’t run as an independent. That removes another five electoral votes. Coupled with the states that have sore-loser laws, that takes a minimum of 207 electoral votes off the table for Trump: leaving only 334 for which he can compete.
Furthermore, the Republican National Convention is scheduled to start on July 18th and scheduled to end on July 21st. This further complicates an independent Trump bid as there are six states (AK, CO, DE, FL, OK, and RI) that have confirmed to CR that their filing deadlines for an independent candidacy fall before the convention even begins.
- See more at: Eno: Trump Independent Run All But Impossible, Ineligible in at Least 16 States
In a recent CNN Town Hall, Donald Trump told Anderson Cooper that he is backing away from his pledge to support the eventual Republican Nominee, whoever that might be. Which implies that Trump may be open to running for president as an Independent.
So Conservative Review wanted to find out if it was even plausible for Trump to not only run, but also win as an Independent. We contacted the elections officers of all fifty states to find out not only their filing deadlines, ballot access, but also if there were any “sore-loser laws” on the books.
“Sore-loser laws” basically bar a candidate who has run in a partisan primary from appearing on a general election ballot as an independent or non-partisan candidate.
Based on the responses so far, Trump can run in the majority of states as an independent. However, he is barred from running as a third-party candidate in some states; those states and their electoral votes add up to over 35 percent of all electoral votes.
Fifteen states confirmed to Conservative Review that they have sore-loser laws which apply to presidential candidates: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia. Some of these states include Trump’s strongest area of support, like Alabama, West Virginia, Georgia, and Arizona.
But, can’t Trump just challenge these laws in court? Of course, but consider that former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson ran afoul of Michigan’s sore-loser law in 2012 and the Supreme Court refused to take up his case. Johnson missed the deadline to withdraw from the Michigan Republican primary by three hours and therefore was unable to then run as a Libertarian in the general election in Michigan. Trump, having appeared on the primary ballot, finds himself in a similar predicament.
Taking into account these thirteen states, Trump would be ineligible to compete for 202 electoral votes, over 35 percent, a significant burden for Trump to secure the presidency through an independent run. With 538 electoral votes up for grabs, Trump would have to hit the magic number of 270 from the smaller available pool of 336 electoral votes.
More Electoral Votes Off the Table
But the math gets even worse, in some states Trump has missed the deadline to mount an independent bid. Take for example New Mexico where, Kerry Fresquez, the Elections Director of the state, told Conservative Review that the deadline to qualify for the November ballot as an independent has already passed. Fresquez further stated that Donald Trump has not applied for ballot access, meaning he can’t run as an independent. That removes another five electoral votes. Coupled with the states that have sore-loser laws, that takes a minimum of 207 electoral votes off the table for Trump: leaving only 334 for which he can compete.
Furthermore, the Republican National Convention is scheduled to start on July 18th and scheduled to end on July 21st. This further complicates an independent Trump bid as there are six states (AK, CO, DE, FL, OK, and RI) that have confirmed to CR that their filing deadlines for an independent candidacy fall before the convention even begins.
- See more at: Eno: Trump Independent Run All But Impossible, Ineligible in at Least 16 States
