Arctic ice thins dramatically

[Chris]

Arctic sea ice, a benchmark for the earth’s rising temperature, may approach a record low in September after its biggest July melt since 2007, researchers at the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said.

Ice covered an average of 7.92 million square kilometers (3.06 million square miles) of ocean last month, 210,000 square kilometers less than the average for the same period in 2007, when there was a record melt season, according to the center. After a recovery toward the end of the month, an all-time low is “an outside possibility,” said Walt Meier, an NSIDC scientist.

“It will be another low year, very likely one of the five lowest,” Meier said today in an e-mail. “One year doesn’t say too much in and of itself, but the long-term downward trend and the series of very low years is indicative of a thinner ice cover and warming temperatures.”

The Arctic ice typically melts until September, before freezing again through March. Scientists at the Boulder, Colorado-based center say the declining ice pack is a harbinger of global warming. By 2030, there may “consistently” be summers where little or no ice remains on the ocean, Meier said.

Arctic Sea Ice May Approach Record Low After Biggest July Melt - Bloomberg

 

[westwall]

Arctic sea ice, a benchmark for the earth’s rising temperature, may approach a record low in September after its biggest July melt since 2007, researchers at the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said.

Ice covered an average of 7.92 million square kilometers (3.06 million square miles) of ocean last month, 210,000 square kilometers less than the average for the same period in 2007, when there was a record melt season, according to the center. After a recovery toward the end of the month, an all-time low is “an outside possibility,” said Walt Meier, an NSIDC scientist.

“It will be another low year, very likely one of the five lowest,” Meier said today in an e-mail. “One year doesn’t say too much in and of itself, but the long-term downward trend and the series of very low years is indicative of a thinner ice cover and warming temperatures.”

The Arctic ice typically melts until September, before freezing again through March. Scientists at the Boulder, Colorado-based center say the declining ice pack is a harbinger of global warming. By 2030, there may “consistently” be summers where little or no ice remains on the ocean, Meier said.

Arctic Sea Ice May Approach Record Low After Biggest July Melt - Bloomberg

Still no open water at the pole.

 

[Chris]

Average ice extent for July 2011 was 7.92 million square kilometers (3.06 million square miles). This is 210,000 square kilometers (81,000 square miles) below the previous record low for the month, set in July 2007, and 2.18 million square kilometers (842,000 square miles) below the average for 1979 to 2000.

Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis

 

[westwall]

Average ice extent for July 2011 was 7.92 million square kilometers (3.06 million square miles). This is 210,000 square kilometers (81,000 square miles) below the previous record low for the month, set in July 2007, and 2.18 million square kilometers (842,000 square miles) below the average for 1979 to 2000.

Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis

Still no open water at the pole.

 

[gslack]

OMG! record ice loss in August! LOL

 

[wirebender]

OMG! record ice loss in August! LOL

Imagine, ice melting in the summer. Who would have thought.

I sure wish one of the hand wringers would post some observed, repeatable proof that establishes an unequivocal link between the activities of man and the changing climate.

 

[gslack]

OMG! record ice loss in August! LOL

Imagine, ice melting in the summer. Who would have thought.

I sure wish one of the hand wringers would post some observed, repeatable proof that establishes an unequivocal link between the activities of man and the changing climate.

Or even establishing a concrete proof of continued warming NOT within the natural variability...

 

[Chris]

Arctic sea ice is melting at a near- record pace, opening shipping lanes for cargo traffic between Europe and Asia, Russia’s environmental agency said.

Ice cover is close to a record low, opening “almost the entire northern sea route to icebreaker-free shipping” as of early August, the Federal Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring Service said on its website today.

The so-called ice extent is as much as 56 percent less than average in some areas, allowing “very easy” sailing that will persist through September, the Moscow-based service said.

Arctic Ice Melt Near Record Clears Ship Route to Asia, Russian Agency Says - Bloomberg

 

[westwall]

Arctic sea ice is melting at a near- record pace, opening shipping lanes for cargo traffic between Europe and Asia, Russia’s environmental agency said.

Ice cover is close to a record low, opening “almost the entire northern sea route to icebreaker-free shipping” as of early August, the Federal Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring Service said on its website today.

The so-called ice extent is as much as 56 percent less than average in some areas, allowing “very easy” sailing that will persist through September, the Moscow-based service said.

Arctic Ice Melt Near Record Clears Ship Route to Asia, Russian Agency Says - Bloomberg

Andrew Revkin of the NYT Dot Earth blog seems to disagree with you. He actually talked to scientists on the ice and discovered that this is neither unusual nor extaraordinary. So sad for you.

August 8, 2011, 3:04 pm
On Arctic Ice and Warmth, Past and Future
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Aug. 9, 8:00 p.m. | Updated
Here’s an update on Arctic ice trends, starting with a fast-motion video portrait of sea ice conditions near the North Pole, provided by one of two automated cameras deployed there in April (keeping in mind that the camera is on ice that’s drifted hundreds of miles since then):



For more than a decade, I’ve been probing changes in Arctic climate and sea ice and their implications for the species that make up northern ecosystems and for human communities there.

There are big changes afoot, with more to come should greenhouse gases continue to build unabated in the atmosphere. There will be impacts on human affairs in the Arctic, for worse and better, as we explored extensively in 2005 and I’ve followed here since.

But even as I push for an energy quest that limits climate risk, I’m not worried about the resilience of Arctic ecosystems and not worried about the system tipping into an irreversibly slushy state on time scales relevant to today’s policy debates. This is one reason I don’t go for descriptions of the system being in a “death spiral.”

The main source of my Arctic comfort level — besides what I learned while camped with scientists on the North Pole sea ice — is the growing body of work on past variations* in sea ice conditions in the Arctic. The latest evidence comes in a study in the current issue of Science. The paper, combining evidence of driftwood accumulation and beach formation in northern Greenland with evidence of past sea-ice extent in parts of Canada, concludes that Arctic sea ice appears to have retreated far more in some spans since the end of the last ice age than it has in recent years. [A Dot Earth reader has offered a different view of Arctic and climatic risk.]

There’s more on the paper below from the lead author, Svend Funder of the University of Copenhagen, and some independent ice scientists I queried about the work. The paper builds on earlier research finding evidence of open water and wave-splashed beaches in parts of Greenland that are now more typically locked in ice. Here’s more previous analysis of Arctic ice patterns during the Holocene, the span since the end of the last ice age.

Here’s a photograph of the sea ice along the northeastern Greenland coast, taken by Funder during fieldwork for this study:


Svend Funder, University of Copenhagen
When considered alongside research on past shifts in Arctic flora and fauna, a picture emerges of a physical system that amplifies warm or cool jogs and a biological system attuned to such changes.

Here’s some input on the new research from Funder (from a press release issued by his university; I’m tied up on other fronts or would have reached out for more):

Our studies show that there have been large fluctuations in the amount of summer sea ice during the last 10,000 years. During the so-called Holocene Climate Optimum, from approximately 8000 to 5000 years ago, when the temperatures were somewhat warmer than today, there was significantly less sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, probably less than 50% of the summer 2007 coverage, which is absolutely lowest on record. Our studies also show that when the ice disappears in one area, it may accumulate in another. We have discovered this by comparing our results with observations from northern Canada. While the amount of sea ice decreased in northern Greenland, it increased in Canada. This is probably due to changes in the prevailing wind systems. This factor has not been sufficiently taken into account when forecasting the imminent disappearance of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.

On the broader implications of the work:

Our studies show that there are great natural variations in the amount of Arctic sea ice. The bad news is that there is a clear connection between temperature and the amount of sea ice. And there is no doubt that continued global warming will lead to a reduction in the amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. The good news is that even with a reduction to less than 50% of the current amount of sea ice the ice will not reach a point of no return: a level where the ice no longer can regenerate itself even if the climate was to return to cooler temperatures. Finally, our studies show that the changes to a large degree are caused by the effect that temperature has on the prevailing wind systems. This has not been sufficiently taken into account when forecasting the imminent disappearance of the ice, as often portrayed in the media.

There’s much more in the news release.

For those wanting to go a little deeper, here are initial reactions I received when I sent the paper to a variety of researchers focused on sea ice (I’ll add more as they come in):


James Overland, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory:

What the authors say is consistent with previous ideas. At the Holocene maximum the orbit was more elliptic and the axis was more tilted. We had very short hot summers and long cold winters. It is not clear which season would win out. A lot of proxies are for summer only so they slant the data too much for warming. It is hard to get models to be completely sea-ice free during this period, so this paper’s results are consistent. Other papers on erosion of Greenland beaches suggest the same thing. Bottom line is that current and historical sea ice cover is sensitive to changes in the radiation balance.

Leonid Polyak of the Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State University notes that the general climatic and ice situation in the Arctic now appears very different than what prevailed in earlier Holocene warm periods:

Overall, the early-Holocene situation in the Arctic seems to be very different from the modern one. Now we are having the strongest ice retreat in the Pacific sector and ice pile-up near Greenland – practically the opposite to what Funder’s paper suggests for the early Holocene.

James Morison of the University of Washington and the North Pole Environmental Observatory project:

This looks really interesting. I had heard about one study of whale bones on Northern Greenland that indicated there were ice free summers or mostly ice free summers around the same time 6000-8000 years before present….

The discussion of general circulation and ice patterns looks right to me…. The interesting physical wrinkle that I was unfamiliar with is the role of shore-fast ice in blocking the driftwood from the beach. It sounds like the ideal situation is a lot of sea ice to carry the wood, but no shore-fast ice to impede depositing it on the beach. It doesn’t seem like that would need to be multi-year sea ice. The process makes one wonder about the relation between [the Arctic Oscillation] and the growth of trees and their export in runoff to the sea. It isn’t discussed in this paper, but I wonder how that influences abundance on the Greenland beaches.

Michael MacCracken, a veteran climate modeler and chief scientist at the Climate Institute, noted on the Google group on geo-engineering that this new paper adds credence to proposals for an Arctic focus for managing incoming sunlight as a way to limit greenhouse-driven impacts. (Personally, I don’t see this kind of effort going anywhere unless and until climate impacts trend toward worst-case outcomes.)

[Aug. 9, 8:04 p.m. | Updated
Joe Romm has predictably assailed my view of Arctic sea ice trends and their implications, straying into discussions of melting permafrost (which is an entirely different issue laden with its own questions -- one being why the last big retreat of permafrost, in the Holocene's warmest stretch, didn't have a greenhouse-gas impact) and my refusal to proclaim a magically safe level of carbon dioxide (which I discuss here). I'll be posting a response before the week is out but not immediately because of other work.]

[* The original wording in the asterisked line above used the word "variability" in a way that could be interpreted as referring to natural internal variability of the Arctic climate and sea ice. In fact, my intent was simply to describe past natural variations that almost certainly were driven by an external force shaping climate -- shifts in the Earth's orbit and orientation toward the Sun, as described by Mike MacCracken in a comment that alerted me to the problem.]



On Arctic Ice and Warmth, Past and Future - NYTimes.com

 

[wirebender]

Arctic sea ice is melting at a near- record pace, opening shipping lanes for cargo traffic between Europe and Asia, Russia’s environmental agency said.

Ice cover is close to a record low, opening “almost the entire northern sea route to icebreaker-free shipping” as of early August, the Federal Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring Service said on its website today.

The so-called ice extent is as much as 56 percent less than average in some areas, allowing “very easy” sailing that will persist through September, the Moscow-based service said.

Arctic Ice Melt Near Record Clears Ship Route to Asia, Russian Agency Says - Bloomberg

Tell me Chris, what is it about melting ice that upsets you so? I mean, it has been melting back for about 14,000 years now and has retreated nearly 2,000 miles. What do you find so upsetting about the fact that a trend that began 14,000 years ago continues?

 

[konradv]

Arctic sea ice is melting at a near- record pace, opening shipping lanes for cargo traffic between Europe and Asia, Russia’s environmental agency said.

Ice cover is close to a record low, opening “almost the entire northern sea route to icebreaker-free shipping” as of early August, the Federal Hydrometeorological and Environmental Monitoring Service said on its website today.

The so-called ice extent is as much as 56 percent less than average in some areas, allowing “very easy” sailing that will persist through September, the Moscow-based service said.

Arctic Ice Melt Near Record Clears Ship Route to Asia, Russian Agency Says - Bloomberg

Tell me Chris, what is it about melting ice that upsets you so? I mean, it has been melting back for about 14,000 years now and has retreated nearly 2,000 miles. What do you find so upsetting about the fact that a trend that began 14,000 years ago continues?

Because in the 70s it was said by some we were going into a new Ice Age. What happened? Some say 'money', there's no real reason why it would fall more to one side than the other. Are they telling us the skeptic side doesn't have it's 'money' people too? When you see the entities that have a vested interest in keeping us on a carbon economy, the 'money' angle is ludicrous.

 

[wirebender]

Because in the 70s it was said by some we were going into a new Ice Age.

What, exactly do you think that has to do with the question I asked? Get with the program konradv. Mindlessly spewing is not a good substitute for rational answers to questions.

What happened? Some say 'money', there's no real reason why it would fall more to one side than the other. Are they telling us the skeptic side doesn't have it's 'money' people too? When you see the entities that have a vested interest in keeping us on a carbon economy, the 'money' angle is ludicrous.

And again, what does that have to do with the question I asked? You get further away from rational thinking every time you sit down to your computer.

 

[konradv]

Because in the 70s it was said by some we were going into a new Ice Age.

What, exactly do you think that has to do with the question I asked? Get with the program konradv. Mindlessly spewing is not a good substitute for rational answers to questions.

What happened? Some say 'money', there's no real reason why it would fall more to one side than the other. Are they telling us the skeptic side doesn't have it's 'money' people too? When you see the entities that have a vested interest in keeping us on a carbon economy, the 'money' angle is ludicrous.

And again, what does that have to do with the question I asked? You get further away from rational thinking every time you sit down to your computer.

Who cares what questions you ask, when you have no basis for asking them in the first place? I might as well be asking a first grader about economic theory. If you want to stay in the discussion, you're going to have answer MY questions. If not, have a nice life. I don't have a lot of tinme to waste on your nonsense. So we'll try it slooooower, why... have... scientists... changed ... their... minds... so... quickly... about... the... possiblity... of... a... new... Ice... Age?

 

[gslack]

Because in the 70s it was said by some we were going into a new Ice Age.

What, exactly do you think that has to do with the question I asked? Get with the program konradv. Mindlessly spewing is not a good substitute for rational answers to questions.

What happened? Some say 'money', there's no real reason why it would fall more to one side than the other. Are they telling us the skeptic side doesn't have it's 'money' people too? When you see the entities that have a vested interest in keeping us on a carbon economy, the 'money' angle is ludicrous.

And again, what does that have to do with the question I asked? You get further away from rational thinking every time you sit down to your computer.

Who cares what questions you ask, when you have no basis for asking them in the first place? I might as well be asking a first grader about economic theory. If you want to stay in the discussion, you're going to have answer MY questions. If not, have a nice life. I don't have a lot of tinme to waste on your nonsense. So we'll try it slooooower, why... have... scientists... changed ... their... minds... so... quickly... about... the... possiblity... of... a... new... Ice... Age?

Kornhole your ignorant ramblings are nothing but that... You post nonsense at every turn and then try and pretend others are the problem.. Dude seriously already, get a grip and follow a thread before posting its just plain annoying..

 

[konradv]

What, exactly do you think that has to do with the question I asked? Get with the program konradv. Mindlessly spewing is not a good substitute for rational answers to questions.



And again, what does that have to do with the question I asked? You get further away from rational thinking every time you sit down to your computer.

Who cares what questions you ask, when you have no basis for asking them in the first place? I might as well be asking a first grader about economic theory. If you want to stay in the discussion, you're going to have answer MY questions. If not, have a nice life. I don't have a lot of tinme to waste on your nonsense. So we'll try it slooooower, why... have... scientists... changed ... their... minds... so... quickly... about... the... possiblity... of... a... new... Ice... Age?

Kornhole your ignorant ramblings are nothing but that... You post nonsense at every turn and then try and pretend others are the problem.. Dude seriously already, get a grip and follow a thread before posting its just plain annoying..

Tit-for-tat, gramps, tit-for-tat. Whaat's more annoying than someone like you that doesn't understand the science, but posts anyway. If you can't follow my posts, maybe the problem's not mine, eh?

 

[gslack]

Who cares what questions you ask, when you have no basis for asking them in the first place? I might as well be asking a first grader about economic theory. If you want to stay in the discussion, you're going to have answer MY questions. If not, have a nice life. I don't have a lot of tinme to waste on your nonsense. So we'll try it slooooower, why... have... scientists... changed ... their... minds... so... quickly... about... the... possiblity... of... a... new... Ice... Age?

Kornhole your ignorant ramblings are nothing but that... You post nonsense at every turn and then try and pretend others are the problem.. Dude seriously already, get a grip and follow a thread before posting its just plain annoying..

Tit-for-tat, gramps, tit-for-tat. Whaat's more annoying than someone like you that doesn't understand the science, but posts anyway. If you can't follow my posts, maybe the problem's not mine, eh?

Its not a question of following your posts, its that your posts are asinine and lack common as well as any other sense... Dude you really don't understand any of this at all do you.....

Whats even funnier is when you make a fool of yourself on a daily basis you don't even learn from it...

 

[ScienceRocks]

MIT study says Arctic ice thinning 4x faster than predicted | Bostinnovation: Boston Start-ups, Innovation and News Blog

This seems like BULL SHIT TO ME as it appears to me that the main drop within ice extent occurred between 1996-2007, but has slowed a crap load the past 3-4 years. Likely caused by ocean currents and natural patterns within the system. Something changed the past few years, -pdo?

 

[wirebender]

Who cares what questions you ask, when you have no basis for asking them in the first place?

Elaborate on that konradv. How is it that you believe that you have logically reached the conclusion that I have no basis for asking the questions I have asked? I would be interested in seeing how it is that your mind works.

I might as well be asking a first grader about economic theory.

Funny konradv. It is you who is lost in anything approaching scientific discussion. We have already established that beyond any doubt. It is facinating, however, to watch you engage in your strange form of mental masturbation to the point that you believe that you have a better grasp of the science than I.

If you want to stay in the discussion, you're going to have answer MY questions.

I have answered your questions ad nauseum konradv, no matter how juvenile they are. I have answered them and provided peer reviewed science to back me up and when appropriate, I have answered them and done the math out in the open here on this board for anyone and everyone to examine my work. To date, even though several have complained that I have offended thier faith, no one has pointed to any mathematical error on my part or any misapplied physical law.

If not, have a nice life. I don't have a lot of tinme to waste on your nonsense.

Again with the mental masturbation. Having a bad day konradv and need to make yourself feel better no matter how shallow those good feelings may be? I am laughing at you konradv, and anyone who has taken the time to read the conversations between you and I is laughing at you as well.

So we'll try it slooooower, why... have... scientists... changed ... their... minds... so... quickly... about... the... possiblity... of... a... new... Ice... Age?

Follow the money konradv. It isn't rocket science. It isn't any sort of science at all unless you want to call economics and increasing one's disposable income science.

 

[wirebender]

Tit-for-tat, gramps, tit-for-tat. Whaat's more annoying than someone like you that doesn't understand the science, but posts anyway. If you can't follow my posts, maybe the problem's not mine, eh?

And yet, you keep posting. How about we revisit the math konradv. Are you ready to point out any error on my part or do you still not accept it because it offends your faith?

 

[wirebender]

Its not a question of following your posts, its that your posts are asinine and lack common as well as any other sense... Dude you really don't understand any of this at all do you.....

Whats even funnier is when you make a fool of yourself on a daily basis you don't even learn from it...

Strange guy isn't he? I ask Chris what exactly it is about the fact that the ice continues to melt as it has for the past 14,000 years and it triggers some switch in his head that makes him spout gibberish and make claims that he has a superior grasp on the science for 3 or for posts.

You have to wonder what goes on in a mind like that? His attempts at logic make me think of great gobs of twisted fishing line.