Economic Impact of the ACA real and imaginary

[SteadyMercury]

Your notion that people on assistance aren't aware of what is being offered by one State as opposed to another is amusing. Trust me...they know...

You thinking being aware is comparable to being motivated enough to move to another state in this country in any significant numbers is more amusing.

 

[Oldstyle]

Your notion that people on assistance aren't aware of what is being offered by one State as opposed to another is amusing. Trust me...they know...

You thinking being aware is comparable to being motivated enough to move to another state in this country in any significant numbers is more amusing.

As I pointed out...a welfare system like Massachusetts prompted tens of thousands to move from tropical Puerto Rico to the cold weather of New England. There obviously was a "motivation" to do so OTHER than the wonderful climate!

 

[FA_Q2]

Once the GOP has gained some power using the ACA as a soap box they are going to run away from it as fast as possible. Fixing the ACA requires that they admit they have been off message all along and the people will not be happy with that. Repealing it will only piss the people off more and quite frankly is impossible.

That is absolute rubbish.

A full repeal is the only logical thing to do with obamacare, since there is no "fixing it." The entire law is one gigantic cluster fuck that just keeps getting worse by the day. The dems rammed this down the majority of Americans throats against their will, and it will be the VAST majority now, because there are even democrats that have joined the ranks, that will be ecstatic to see it fully repealed.

Full repeal and LOGICAL solutions to health care reform is what we'll see once conservatives hold congress and take majority control of the senate in November, all on obamacare. The people will elect them specifically to REPEAL obamacare, and they will, WITH help from democrats. They'll repeal it with a veto proof majority, so whether obama likes it or not, it's going to be gone.

Whether or not it is logical, best or even publically backed is utterly irrelevant. It is not going to happen.

I hope I am incorrect and that you are correct but I seriously doubt it. I can’t think of the last major welfare program that was ended after benefits were conferred on the voting public. Can you?

 

[FA_Q2]

I'm baffled by your apparent belief that the ACA will cure itself of some major flaws and continue on without wholesale changes, FA. Do you not understand that the delays on things like the employer mandate are because the Obama Administration and the Democrats who voted for the ACA are scared to death about the public's reaction when they learn what the true effects of this legislation will be? They pushed that back until AFTER the upcoming mid-terms because they don't want people figuring out what the ACA really means for their bottom line. At some point when this stuff DOES kick in...all hells going to break out. My guess is that will happen just as Barry, Harry and Nancy exit stage left...leaving someone else to answer the screams of outrage that will be heard throughout the land.

Who said it would cure itself of its major flaws? I do not make that claim. I simply stated that it is here to stay – flaws and all.

Look, the law itself is rooted in the most major flaw of all – it is a central planning concept that removes personal freedom. There is no ‘fixing’ that flaw – it is central in all that the law is. That does not mean that it is going to be repealed though. The delays are nothing more than political posturing and the purchasing of votes/dollars for the next campaign. They have already stuck their head on the chopper though and the payment will come to pass.

As far as repealing it goes though I think that you are all making the horrible assumption that people are going to WANT it repealed. The bill was actually well done in terms of survivability because the built in subsidies. People are going to demand that Obamacare go away except maybe that big chunk of cash that they are getting from Uncle Sam. THAT is going to have to stay. It is also worth pointing out that the vast majority of people are going to get subsidies even if the coverage that they received is not what they wanted. Then you have to figure in that one of Obamacare major cornerstones was simply to be a vehicle for Medicare expansion. How many of those now on Medicare do you actually think are going to be all right with losing completely free healthcare?

Once the cash starts hitting the streets, people are going to REFUSE to let it go. The political heads know this and that is why they ensured such things are in the law. I don’t believe for a single second that they were blind to the obvious backlash that is coming out of the ACA nor do I buy into this idea that they were not FULLY away at the staggering number of people that are not going to be able to get the plans they want at the prices they were paying. These realities are FAR from consequences of the ACA – they are REQUIRED for the ACA to work. Without those realities the ACA would not be garnering the cash flow required to actually work.

I see things like this from a supposed ‘small government low tax tea party’ supporters and realize that such battles are already lost:

The reality here is that people want their slice of the pie. Even those that purport to be against big government and high taxes suddenly jump ship when you propose to cut THEIR government benefits. This is why social security and Medicare/Medicaid are not only still here but damn near unchangeable. We have been demanding cuts in government for years now and a full two thirds of all spending has been virtually off limits completely because they are hand out programs that the people will not stand to be altered. The republicans take a shellacking every time that the touch Medicare and SS – programs who’s main beneficiaries SUPPORT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY!!

I must ask then what leads you to believe that this program is different? You can already see it – outright appeal is NOT popular and the rubber has yet to meet the road so to speak. It is not going to get better. People are going to be pissed, democrats are going to pay in this next election but overall I don’t see repeal as even a remote possibility until the nation as a whole starts to see things differently. Until we return to the concept of personal responsibility and less government control over our existence, the ACA is simply not going to go anywhere at all.

 

[william the wie]

I'm baffled by your apparent belief that the ACA will cure itself of some major flaws and continue on without wholesale changes, FA. Do you not understand that the delays on things like the employer mandate are because the Obama Administration and the Democrats who voted for the ACA are scared to death about the public's reaction when they learn what the true effects of this legislation will be? They pushed that back until AFTER the upcoming mid-terms because they don't want people figuring out what the ACA really means for their bottom line. At some point when this stuff DOES kick in...all hells going to break out. My guess is that will happen just as Barry, Harry and Nancy exit stage left...leaving someone else to answer the screams of outrage that will be heard throughout the land.

Who said it would cure itself of its major flaws? I do not make that claim. I simply stated that it is here to stay – flaws and all.

Look, the law itself is rooted in the most major flaw of all – it is a central planning concept that removes personal freedom. There is no ‘fixing’ that flaw – it is central in all that the law is. That does not mean that it is going to be repealed though. The delays are nothing more than political posturing and the purchasing of votes/dollars for the next campaign. They have already stuck their head on the chopper though and the payment will come to pass.

As far as repealing it goes though I think that you are all making the horrible assumption that people are going to WANT it repealed. The bill was actually well done in terms of survivability because the built in subsidies. People are going to demand that Obamacare go away except maybe that big chunk of cash that they are getting from Uncle Sam. THAT is going to have to stay. It is also worth pointing out that the vast majority of people are going to get subsidies even if the coverage that they received is not what they wanted. Then you have to figure in that one of Obamacare major cornerstones was simply to be a vehicle for Medicare expansion. How many of those now on Medicare do you actually think are going to be all right with losing completely free healthcare?

Once the cash starts hitting the streets, people are going to REFUSE to let it go. The political heads know this and that is why they ensured such things are in the law. I don’t believe for a single second that they were blind to the obvious backlash that is coming out of the ACA nor do I buy into this idea that they were not FULLY away at the staggering number of people that are not going to be able to get the plans they want at the prices they were paying. These realities are FAR from consequences of the ACA – they are REQUIRED for the ACA to work. Without those realities the ACA would not be garnering the cash flow required to actually work.

I see things like this from a supposed ‘small government low tax tea party’ supporters and realize that such battles are already lost:

The reality here is that people want their slice of the pie. Even those that purport to be against big government and high taxes suddenly jump ship when you propose to cut THEIR government benefits. This is why social security and Medicare/Medicaid are not only still here but damn near unchangeable. We have been demanding cuts in government for years now and a full two thirds of all spending has been virtually off limits completely because they are hand out programs that the people will not stand to be altered. The republicans take a shellacking every time that the touch Medicare and SS – programs who’s main beneficiaries SUPPORT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY!!

I must ask then what leads you to believe that this program is different? You can already see it – outright appeal is NOT popular and the rubber has yet to meet the road so to speak. It is not going to get better. People are going to be pissed, democrats are going to pay in this next election but overall I don’t see repeal as even a remote possibility until the nation as a whole starts to see things differently. Until we return to the concept of personal responsibility and less government control over our existence, the ACA is simply not going to go anywhere at all.

I concur on national repeal, replacement or reform. There is also the matter of state and municipal finances. "Helpful" state and local bankruptcy laws combined with a phase out of mandates and insurance company subsidies is what is politically possible short of meltdown the sequel.

 

[william the wie]

Thought I would point out that claimed signups have now reached 4 million and a headline figure of 7 million by March 31st is at least possible. The actual figure will not be known until Sept. 30 because March 31st is the last day to start the enrollment procedure. Actual enrollment could drag out until May with checks sent by mail.

 

[Iceweasel]

But how many of those actually have insurance? And how many people have lost insurance? Or pay more now? Or are better off?

 

[william the wie]

But how many of those actually have insurance? And how many people have lost insurance? Or pay more now? Or are better off?

Without hard data that is distinctly lacking until 2nd quarter data is released in third quarter insurance company results for the second I have no way of knowing. Preliminary guidance would indicate that 4 million reported will translate into a net 2.8 million initial policies. I would suspect that data on better network and formulary coverage outside of the exchanges will result in less than 2 million covered by the time the final totals are known but I do not know that.

The extent of puffery in these numbers has yet to be determined.

 

[FA_Q2]

But how many of those actually have insurance? And how many people have lost insurance? Or pay more now? Or are better off?

Without hard data that is distinctly lacking until 2nd quarter data is released in third quarter insurance company results for the second I have no way of knowing. Preliminary guidance would indicate that 4 million reported will translate into a net 2.8 million initial policies. I would suspect that data on better network and formulary coverage outside of the exchanges will result in less than 2 million covered by the time the final totals are known but I do not know that.

The extent of puffery in these numbers has yet to be determined.

And the administration seems to be very reluctant to release any actual data.

I suppose that we will get the hard numbers when they begin to show favorable results that the admin is actually looking for.

 

[william the wie]

But how many of those actually have insurance? And how many people have lost insurance? Or pay more now? Or are better off?

Without hard data that is distinctly lacking until 2nd quarter data is released in third quarter insurance company results for the second I have no way of knowing. Preliminary guidance would indicate that 4 million reported will translate into a net 2.8 million initial policies. I would suspect that data on better network and formulary coverage outside of the exchanges will result in less than 2 million covered by the time the final totals are known but I do not know that.

The extent of puffery in these numbers has yet to be determined.

And the administration seems to be very reluctant to release any actual data.

I suppose that we will get the hard numbers when they begin to show favorable results that the admin is actually looking for.

No, the insurance companies must report quarterly results and then be rated by Best on their numbers plus the Fed and international financial stability agencies check on them and as many as 50 state insurance commissioners also rake them over the coals. Berkshire Hathaway is lobbying to stay off the national and international TBTF (to big to fail) list and its profitable malpractice line could be adversely affected by hanky-panky in those quarterly numbers. So there are whole bunches of state, national and international enemies of Barry ready to blow whistle for books cooking. You are going to see hard numbers.

Try "the everyone can afford insurance now" thread. If it ain't hedging, biology or history I figure someone else should take the lead but it looks like a series of tables should make it possible to determine marginal subsidy recapture rates. detailed recapture rates won't be out until next tax season but if you are a data miner that looks like one of the real backbreakers for the program.

 

[william the wie]

Another little Jewel popped up in an Ocare tax thread about subsidy recovery. One of the major cliffs is $3,700 so if somebody goes $0.01 over the line in annual income one year the results are eye-popping.
$3,700 is 37,000,000% of $0.01.
Even if actual penalties are generally thousands of times less in percentage terms and the IRS restricts its collections to say $10/week maximum plus tax refunds for jumbo penalties this will not play well.
There are three major cliffs in the subsidy schedule.

 

[Greenbeard]

One of the major cliffs is $3,700 so if somebody goes $0.01 over the line in annual income one year the results are eye-popping.

It's more like $300.

 

[william the wie]

Summaries of how many people actually enrolled in ACA vs. administration reports should start pumping out about a month from now. This will mostly tell how good the accounting controls are.